红枣09合约 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 =2021 == 2022 == 2024 == 2024 == 2025 红枣墓差(河北沧州) 4000 2000 -2000 -4000 -6000 -8000 =2021 == 2022 == 2023 == 2024 == 2025 红枣目度数据 研究中心农产品团队 2025/9/24 3000 6000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 2000 2/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 1000 -1008- -2000 -10001/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 08/01 10/01 11/01 -3000 -2000 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 -2021 -- 2022 -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a decline in agricultural futures across the board on September 24, with significant drops in soybean, corn, and wheat futures prices [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.35%, closing at 1008.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.53%, ending at 424.00 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced a decline of 0.19%, closing at 519.50 cents per bushel [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. Some products like rapeseed meal are facing downward pressure due to potential supply increases, while others such as sugar and corn are experiencing rebounds influenced by factors like weather and inventory changes. Each product's market situation is detailed along with corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Rapeseed Meal - Continued to decline; impacted by Argentina's cancellation of export tax and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, leading to increased supply expectations. Also, high domestic soybean crushing and rising soybean meal inventory added pressure [2]. - The main 2601 contract fell significantly, below the moving - average system, hitting a 2 - month low. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 2377 and resistance at 2450 [2][3]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract rebounded significantly, driven by short - covering and the rebound of the overseas market. The approaching typhoon in the south provided a weather - related price - boosting factor [4]. - The contract rebounded from a low level, standing above the short - term moving average. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 5440 and resistance at 5530 [4]. Soybean Oil - After a sharp decline, it slightly rebounded, but the downward trend remained. Argentina's tax cut on soybean products increased international competition, and domestic supply was abundant [6]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated far below the moving - average system. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 8018 and resistance at 8150 [6]. Palm Oil - Rebounded from a low level, supported by improved supply - demand in Malaysia (production down 8% and exports up 8 - 9% in the first 20 days of September). Domestic trading volume increased [8]. - Although it rebounded slightly, it was still below the moving - average system. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 9000 and resistance at 9150 [8]. Corn - Continued to rebound from a low level. Despite expected new supply, port inventory decline and price increases in North China supported the price [10]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded, with short - covering. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2170 [10]. Eggs - Continued to decline with high supply pressure. High laying - hen inventory and a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released in November led to weak demand after the holiday [13]. - The main 2511 contract fell below the 20 - day moving average. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3090 [13]. Pigs - Rebounded from a low level, but the downward trend remained. High supply due to fattening and disease in some areas was countered by typhoon - affected supply in Guangdong and pre - holiday demand [14][16]. - The main 2511 contract rebounded but was still under moving - average pressure. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 12645 and resistance at 12800 [16]. Cotton - Fluctuated narrowly at a low level, with the downward trend unchanged. New cotton was about to be listed in large quantities, and downstream demand was weak [17]. - The main 2601 contract fluctuated with some short - covering. The strategy is to short with a light position, with support at 13500 and resistance at 13635 [19]. Apples - Oscillated upwards. With the end of early - Fuji trading, late - Fuji procurement for the double - festival was active, and cold - storage inventory decreased [20]. - The main 2601 contract oscillated upwards above the moving - average system. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 8290 and resistance at 8428 [20]. Red Dates - The rebound was blocked. There was a game over new jujube production, quality, and opening prices. Market expectations of a new - jujube harvest reduction coexisted with slow pre - holiday procurement [22]. - The main 2601 contract first rose then fell. The strategy is to close long positions and trade short - term, with support at 10715 and resistance at 10900 [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton inventory is at a near - four - year low, and the new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation may bring pressure during the new - flower listing period [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar export decreased in September. The Brazilian supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. In China, the supply is sufficient in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward [4][5][6] - For pulp, overseas pulp mills' plans have a certain impact on the market, but the global supply pressure still exists. The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is weak, especially in China. The pulp price is expected to remain low [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,540 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan/ton. As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, the harvesting rate was 12%, and the excellent - good rate was 47% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the September USDA report adjusted up the global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending inventories. The US cotton supply - demand is expected to improve, but the export sales progress is slow. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking is fast, the supply is tight at the end of the year, and the demand improves marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation may bring pressure [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Cotton prices are supported before the large - scale listing of new cotton, but there may be pressure during the listing period. In the long term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5444 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar prices in Nanning, Guangxi and Kunming, Yunnan were 5780 yuan/ton and 5800 yuan/ton respectively, both down 20 yuan/ton. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of September decreased by 30.13 million tons (11.12%) compared with the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. In China, the supply is sufficient in the short term, and the fundamental driving force is downward [5][6] Strategy - Be neutral. The sugar price may have a short - term rebound but is bearish in the medium term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 5008 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot: The prices of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp and Russian softwood pulp in Shandong were 5610 yuan/ton and 5110 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The import pulp spot market prices were basically stable, with only sporadic increases [6][7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' plans have a certain impact, but the global supply pressure still exists. The domestic supply is loose. Demand: The global pulp consumption is weak, especially in China, and the demand is the core factor suppressing the pulp price [8] Strategy - Be neutral. The pulp price is expected to remain low in the short term due to insufficient fundamental improvement and pressure from near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by rainy weather, increasing the risk of mildew during storage and potentially raising processing costs. The new soybean supply is gradually coming onto the market, but the market trading is slow. The peanut market has a situation where the supply pressure of new peanuts has not been fully released, and there is a short - term shortage of high - quality goods. The demand from food processing enterprises and oil mills is relatively weak [1][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3878.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.87%. - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans is A11 + 342, a change of + 34 from the previous day, an increase of 32.14%. The purchase price of new - season soybean rough grains in the Northeast region has been decreasing, with prices ranging from 1.85 - 1.9 yuan/jin. The prices of tower - processed grains show a "high - quality, high - price" characteristic. The loading prices of national standard first - class soybean grains in various regions of Heilongjiang remained flat compared to the previous day [1][2] Market Trends - Yesterday, the soybean futures rebound was blocked. Continuous rainy weather in some areas increases the risk of mildew during soybean storage and may raise processing costs. The impact of Typhoon "Hikaa" on soybean supply in relevant producing areas needs to be continuously tracked [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7768.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 38.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.49%. - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8430.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 50.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.60%. The spot basis was PK11 + 432.00, a change of + 38.00 from the previous day, an increase of 9.64%. The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national market was 4.19 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin. Oil mills' procurement is cautious, and the arrival volume is low [4] Market Trends - Yesterday, peanut futures continued to fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure of new peanuts has not been fully released, and there is a short - term shortage of high - quality goods. Rain has postponed the harvest of wheat - stubble peanuts in Henan and slowed down the drying in Liaoning. The demand from food processing enterprises is mainly on a "use - as - needed" basis, and the rigid demand during festivals is gradually weakening. The overall operating rate of oil mills is low [5][6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral, and the risk is weakening demand [7]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待。阿根廷出 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 口降税至零叠加美豆收获，利空美豆及国内豆粕，昨日豆粕破位下行，短期有回补 | | | | 缺口支持的意图。看多观望为宜。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The logic of soybean shortage after the fourth quarter has been shaken due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on soybeans and its by - products, and some domestic oil mills have started to purchase Argentine soybeans, with orders for Argentine soybean meal starting in mid - to late August. The supply from September to November is sufficient, and the potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentina's soybean procurement and policy continuity, as well as the progress of Sino - US negotiations [6]. - With the loosening of the previous soybean shortage logic, frequent consultations between China and the US, and high inventory in reality, soybean meal prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is advisable to reduce positions to avoid risks. Potential positive factors such as the expected decline in US soybean yield and dry weather in Brazil are unlikely to be reflected in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline [6]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all declined. The decline rates of 2601, 2509, and 2511 were - 3.37%, - 1.73%, and - 3.66% respectively. The trading volume of 2601 was 2372830, and the trading volume of 2511 was 167642 [6]. - **External market**: The US soybean futures contracts declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. Argentina suspended export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal, reducing the previous 26% soybean export tax and 24.5% soybean oil and soybean meal export taxes to 0. After the tax reduction, Argentina's soybean CIF price to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US [6]. 2. Industry News - On Monday, the Argentine government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The measure will last until October 31 or until the total export volume reaches $7 billion [7]. 3. Data Overview - **USDA crop growth report**: As of the week of September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the previous week was 63%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the market expectation of 12%. The defoliation rate was 61% [15]. - **Rosario Grain Exchange**: Argentina's grain and by - product exports in the 2025/26 season may reach a record 105.1 million tons, with grain and oilseed shipments expected to be 64.7 million tons (62% being corn), and oil and oilmeal exports estimated at 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [15].

2025年09月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或超跌反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场情绪修复，反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：关注"桦加沙"对蔗区的影响 | 8 | | 棉花：关注籽棉成交价格 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季不旺 | 11 | | 生猪：节前集中释放矛盾阶段 | 12 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 24 日 棕榈油：原油反弹，国际油脂存在支撑 豆油：阿根廷取消豆类出口税，美豆偏弱震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,05 ...

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw most contracts rise on September 23, with raw sugar futures increasing by 1.57% to 16.16 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures rose by 0.59% to 66.61 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures increased by 0.63% to $7003.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures declined by 4.19% to 351.95 cents per pound [1]