Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is beneficial for commodity prices in the long term, as it encourages stability and innovation in production rather than destructive price competition [1]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in inventory levels and production rhythm among car manufacturers is attributed to the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded significantly due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with current glass production enterprise inventory at 57.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 970,000 heavy boxes week-on-week [2]. Soda ash inventory stands at 1.864 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - **Steel**: Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, with steel inventory continuing to decrease. Despite facing export challenges, the demand remains resilient, and the market is expected to see a strong performance in steel prices [3][22]. - **Stock Indices**: The U.S. stock indices have shown volatility, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 4.768 billion yuan to 1.8605 trillion yuan [3][8]. Group 3: Industry News - The "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant breakthrough in China's natural uranium production capabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.66%, with the central bank shifting from net absorption to net injection in the open market [9]. The market is currently facing uncertainties due to international trade tensions and inflation concerns [9]. - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with OPEC expected to approve significant production increases in September [10]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The U.S. soybean crop's good condition remains stable, with the good rate at 66%, while the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to remain ample, putting pressure on prices [24]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown slight declines, reflecting challenges in increasing freight rates amid fluctuating demand [26].

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on July 11 to strengthen the long-term assessment of state-owned commercial insurance companies, adjusting the evaluation method for "return on net assets" and "capital preservation and appreciation rate" to a combination of current year, 3-year, and 5-year indicators with respective weights of 30%, 50%, and 20% [2][6][21] - The new assessment method aims to encourage insurance funds to focus on long-term stable investments, which is expected to enhance the long-term investment returns of insurance companies and alleviate investment pressures [2][9][21] - The insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in equity asset allocation, while maintaining a generally stable asset allocation style due to the pressure on liability costs and the need for quality assets to achieve incremental investment returns [8][9][21] Group 2: Market Strategy and Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index and the CSI 1000 index both increasing by approximately 2.4%, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" trend and positive changes in domestic policies [3][12] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: technology growth sectors benefiting from both domestic and external demand, industries likely to improve due to the "anti-involution" trend, and financial sectors with high dividend advantages [3][13] - The real estate sector saw a significant increase of 6.12%, indicating a potential recovery as market sentiment improves ahead of important meetings [18][19] Group 3: AI and Office Software Industry - The AI + office software industry is at a turning point, transitioning from tool intelligence to workflow reconstruction, driven by breakthroughs in large model technology [3][15] - Major players like Microsoft dominate the high-end market, while domestic companies leverage localized data advantages and policy support to rapidly rise in the market [15][16] - Investment opportunities are recommended in companies such as Kingsoft Office, Foxit Software, and others, as the industry is expected to continue expanding due to the deepening of digital transformation and the demand for domestic alternatives [15][16] Group 4: Oil and Petrochemical Sector - The oil and petrochemical sector is supported by seasonal demand for refined oil, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.05% recently [24][26] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide short-term support for oil prices, while OPEC+ plans to increase production may lead to downward pressure on prices in the medium term [24][26] - The report suggests focusing on domestic oil companies with strong earnings resilience, such as China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil [26] Group 5: Precious and Industrial Metals - The gold market is expected to perform well in the medium to long term due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [28][30] - Copper prices may face short-term volatility due to impending tariffs, but medium-term demand is expected to remain strong due to industrialization in emerging markets [28][30] - The aluminum market is anticipated to see upward price movement due to a strong supply-demand imbalance, with recommendations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum [28][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper by the U.S., which is expected to take effect in late July or early August. This has led to a significant increase in U.S. copper prices while London and Shanghai copper prices have declined [5][9]. - The report anticipates that global copper inventory transfers will conclude, providing some support for copper prices despite the short-term pressure from tariffs. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,000 CNY per ton in the near term [5]. - The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels, with aluminum prices experiencing high volatility. The report notes a slight increase in alumina prices and a decrease in aluminum production margins [5][26]. - Lithium prices are rebounding from the bottom, driven by a "reverse involution" trend, with expectations for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][78]. - Cobalt prices may rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to tighten supply in the fourth quarter [5][88]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims, and the announcement of copper tariffs by the U.S. government [9]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices fell by 2.43%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.63%. U.S. copper prices increased by 10.30%. Inventory levels showed a mixed trend, with London copper inventory rising by 14.12% and Shanghai copper inventory declining by 3.70% [26]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.08%, and Shanghai aluminum prices rose by 0.36%. Inventory levels for both London and Shanghai aluminum increased, while production margins decreased [26][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices decreased, while zinc prices saw a slight increase. Inventory levels for lead and zinc showed mixed trends, with lead inventory declining and zinc inventory increasing [49]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices fell, and nickel prices also experienced a decline. Inventory levels for both metals showed a downward trend [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices, including lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene, saw increases, while hydroxide prices slightly decreased. The report notes ongoing challenges in production margins for lithium [78]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, but the extended export ban from the DRC may create opportunities for price rebounds in the future [88].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals starting August 1, 2023, as part of ongoing trade negotiations[2] - The 232 investigation allows the U.S. to impose tariffs under the guise of national security, with a high certainty of implementation compared to other tariff measures[3] - Current 232 tariffs include 25% on steel and aluminum, which were raised to 50% in June 2023, and 25% on automobiles and parts[3] Group 2: Upcoming Tariff Developments - The copper tariff will take effect on August 1, while the pharmaceutical tariff will be delayed by one to one and a half years[4] - The semiconductor 232 investigation is expected to conclude by the end of July 2023, with tariffs likely to be announced shortly thereafter[4] - Investigations into critical minerals, wood, and aircraft are ongoing, with results expected in October 2023, December 2023, and February 2026, respectively[4] Group 3: Implications of Tariff Policies - The 232 tariffs are designed to increase government revenue, with rates ranging from 25% to 200% on key products, potentially alleviating fiscal pressures[19] - The U.S. tariff system will consist of a global baseline tariff of 10%, reciprocal tariffs of 30%-50%, and 50% tariffs on critical industries[19] - The tariffs aim to encourage the return of key industries to the U.S. and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains[19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the copper and aluminum industries, with copper showing a stable upward trend and aluminum stabilizing at the bottom [14][15][16]. Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing a slight price decline, with LME copper down 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, while domestic copper inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The aluminum market shows a minor price increase, with LME aluminum up 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, and a decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory [16]. - Gold prices have increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [17]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see price increases due to tightening supply and rising demand, with strategic government actions enhancing the sector's outlook [39]. - The antimony market is stabilizing, with expectations of price recovery supported by reduced domestic production and increased demand from new regulations [40]. - Molybdenum prices are rising, supported by low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. - Lithium prices have shown a mixed trend, with carbonate prices increasing while hydroxide prices have slightly decreased [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper shows a robust upward trend, while aluminum is stabilizing at lower levels. Precious metals are accelerating due to fiscal expansion policies [14]. 2. Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals Update 2.1 Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.92% to $9,663.00 per ton, with slight increases in domestic inventory and production rates expected to rise [15]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 0.17% to $2,602.00 per ton, with a decrease in domestic inventory [16]. 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 0.71% to $3,370.30 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions [17]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, with government actions enhancing market conditions [39]. 4. Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Update 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are expected to rise due to tightening supply and strategic government actions [39]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are stabilizing, with expectations of recovery supported by reduced production and new regulations [40]. 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are increasing due to low inventory levels and strong demand from the steel industry [41]. 4.4 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.43% to 63,200 CNY per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased slightly [44].

Market Overview - The A-share market is showing signs of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 9-month high of 3555.22 points on July 11, 2025, and closing at 3510.18, the highest since January 25, 2022 [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating a surge in market sentiment [1] - The week from July 7 to July 11 saw the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index both rise by 1.78%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.36%, marking a three-week streak of gains [2] Financial Technology Sector - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the "stablecoin concept" and internet brokerage firms, with the financial technology ETF (159851) rising by 3.76% to reach a historical high [2][3] - Major stocks in the sector, such as Guoao Technology and Jinzheng Co., saw strong performance, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - The financial technology index has surged over 39% in the past three months, outperforming other major indices [4] Brokerage Firms - Brokerage firms are leading the market rally, with the top brokerage ETF (512000) rising by 4.35% to set a new yearly high, and total trading volume reaching 19.52 billion yuan, a 139.8% increase from the previous day [5][8] - Major brokerage stocks like Dongfang Wealth and Zhongyin Securities saw significant inflows, with Dongfang Wealth achieving a trading volume of 263.14 billion yuan [8][9] - Three brokerage stocks hit the daily limit, indicating strong market interest and performance [12] Rare Earth and Nonferrous Metals - The rare earth sector is also witnessing a strong rally, with major companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announcing price increases, leading to significant gains in related stocks [16][19] - The nonferrous metals sector attracted substantial capital inflows, with a net inflow of 99.89 billion yuan, ranking among the top three sectors for capital inflow [17] - The rare earth ETF (159876) rose by 2.18%, reaching a new yearly high, driven by strong performance from leading companies in the sector [16] Earnings Reports - The earnings season is underway, with companies like China Shipbuilding and WuXi AppTec forecasting significant profit increases, contributing to a bullish sentiment in their respective sectors [1] - The brokerage sector is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, supported by increased trading activity and favorable market conditions [15]

政治博弈方面，欧盟委员会本周将提议对俄罗斯石油实施浮动价格上限机制，作为新制裁的一部分。以色列国防部长表示，如 果伊朗威胁以色列，那么以色列将再次对伊朗采取打击行动。近期国家间的博弈略有升温，短期将在一定程度上为油价提供支 撑。 供给端看，今年4月份以来欧佩克+不断增产以提高其市场份额，当前欧佩克+正在讨论从今年10月份起暂停增产。 需求端看，欧佩克在近期发布的《2025年世界石油展望》中表示，今年全球石油需求平均为1.05亿桶/日，预计2026年石油需求 将增加至1.063亿桶/日，2029年将攀升至1.116亿桶/日。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前国家间的博弈略有升温。供给端，产油国们有望冻结原油产量；需求端，在需 求旺季的背景下，油价短期维持震荡偏强的概率较大。 黄金方面： 周四（7月10日）晚间公布美国截至7月5日当周初请失业金人数录得增加22.7万人，低于市场预期的23.5万人，以及23.2万人，就 业市场数据的改善并不利于美联储提前开启降息周期，短期恐将令金价承压。 近期美联储多位官员公开讲话。戴利认为今年美联储可能在秋季实施降息，并且认为今年可能会降息两次，因为当前并未看到 持续关 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as Trump's tariff policies, seasonal demand, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events, leading to diverse trends in different commodities and financial markets [2][44] - Different commodities and markets show different trends including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors affecting each market 3. Summary by Commodity and Market Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 09 contract down 1.85%. Uncertainties in economic and oil demand remain due to tariff policies, and although the peak - season physical market provides support, the upside space above $70/barrel is limited [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strength order is SC > BU > LU > FU. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil lacks a clear driving force, with both showing weakening trends [18] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market supply is generally loose, and prices are stable. The import cost decline drives PDH margin repair, but the market maintains low - level oscillations in summer [20] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. Fed officials are divided on interest - rate cuts, and uncertainties before the US tariff deadline may cause risk sentiment to fluctuate, leading to continued oscillations [3] - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices oscillated. Trump's tariff remarks may further push prices down during the domestic off - season, and short positions are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate strongly. Although there are signs of negative feedback in the off - season, inventory accumulation is not significant. Market risk preference is positive, and attention should be paid to position changes [5] - **Alumina**: The anti - involution theme drives the rise of alumina futures and spot prices. Although it is currently oscillating strongly, the high - level operating capacity may limit the upside space [6] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded following the black - metal market. Although the short - term low - inventory situation leads to intensified capital games, the long - term downward trend is determined by the supply - demand imbalance [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded strongly, but with sufficient inventory and weak upstream price support, short positions are recommended on a light scale [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered most of its gains. Attention is on the low - level fluctuations of LME tin inventory, and short positions from previous highs are recommended to be held [11] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports and apparent demand are weak, and port inventory is accumulating. Although planned plant overhauls may support prices, the off - season demand may limit price increases, resulting in range - bound oscillations [22] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Affected by production rumors, PVC is strong in the short term, but long - term price increases are limited due to weak demand and high production. Caustic soda continues to rise, but long - term supply pressure may limit significant price increases [25] - **PX & PTA**: Overnight oil prices fell, causing PX and PTA prices to decline. PX supply - demand improves, while PTA supply - demand eases, and attention should be paid to the plant overhaul rhythm at low processing margins [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by falling oil prices, ethylene glycol oscillated overnight. Although there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, port inventory reduction and improved market sentiment provide some support [27] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Resin**: Prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade resin declined slightly. Short - fiber inventory may increase, and caution is needed regarding the repair space of bottle - grade resin processing margins [28] - **Pure Benzene**: Overnight oil prices fell, and the increase of pure benzene slowed. There are short - term positives in the market, but it will face pressure in the fourth quarter. Seasonal supply - demand trends should be considered for operation [46] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean good - quality rate is normal, and the domestic soybean meal market oscillates. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and future weather conditions need to be monitored [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices slightly corrected. The MPOB report is more bearish than expected, but long - term, bio - diesel development may support vegetable oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and weather [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed may face local dry risks, and domestic rapeseed oil is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [34] - **Corn**: Dalian corn oscillates. The increase in supply due to auctions affects market expectations, and the market may continue to oscillate [36] - **Sugar**: US sugar oscillates weakly due to expected increases in India and Thailand's production. The domestic sugar market has low import volumes and light inventory pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton rose slightly. Brazilian cotton harvesting is slow, and domestic cotton has a good inventory digestion but faces off - season pressure. Buying on dips is recommended [39] - **Eggs**: Egg futures declined, and the spot price is stable. The peak - season start time may be delayed, and long - term egg prices may not have bottomed out [38] - **Hogs**: Hog futures rose, but the spot price weakened slightly. Long - term capacity pressure exists, and there is downward pressure on hog prices [37] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillate. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on new - season yield estimates. A bearish operation strategy is recommended [41] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to oscillate in the short term, following spot freight rates. Geopolitical events may affect the market, and a cease - fire agreement may put pressure on far - month contracts [17] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: Affected by production rumors and inventory reduction, glass futures rose. Short - term prices may follow macro - sentiment, and long - term price increases depend on real estate policies or supply reduction [29] - **Lumber**: Lumber futures oscillate. The supply of radiata pine is low, and demand shows some improvement, but prices are still weak due to the off - season [42] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures rose significantly. Although port inventory is high and demand is weak, the "anti - involution" concept boosts sentiment, and short - term observation or short - term operations are recommended [43] - **Financial Markets** - **Stock Index**: A - shares oscillated upward, and index futures rose slightly. The market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies, and investors are advised to increase their allocation of technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillated downward, and bond yields increased. Market risk preference is rising, and the bond market may face increased volatility [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in rare earth stocks, with Northern Rare Earth rising over 8% and Shenghe Resources over 6%, indicating strong market performance in the sector [1][3] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a price adjustment, with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel announcing a 1.5% increase in the price of rare earth concentrate for Q3, raising it to 19,109 yuan per ton [3] - Northern Rare Earth has projected a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, estimating a rise of 1,882.54% to 2,014.71%, with a non-recurring net profit increase of 5,538.33% to 5,922.76% [3] Group 2 - The rare earth sector is characterized by a supply-demand shift, with increasing demand from industries such as electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and renewable energy, suggesting a potential turning point for the industry [4] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in gold, copper, and rare earths, with expectations of rising prices due to limited supply and growing demand [4] - As of June 30, the market valuation of the China Nonferrous Metals Index is at a historically low level, indicating a favorable investment environment [4] Group 3 - The composition of the nonferrous metals index includes significant weights for copper (26.1%), gold (16.3%), aluminum (15.8%), rare earths (8.5%), and lithium (7.7%), providing a diversified investment option [6]