化工日报 | 2025-07-17 缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、近期市场缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，近日原油市场消息面较为平淡，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN254美元/吨(环比变动-0.75美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 11 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费204元/吨（环比变动+27元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费364元/吨（环比变动+7元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至高 位；聚酯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, the panda bond market continued to be hot, with the annual issuance volume reaching a new high, and the market is expected to remain active in 2025 [1][17] - The development of the panda bond market is driven by factors such as the low - cost financing advantage of RMB, the improvement of relevant systems, and the increase in foreign investment participation [1][2] Summary According to Related Content 2024 Review - **Issuance Scale and Structure**: In 2024, 44 entities issued 109 panda bonds, with a total issuance scale of 194.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26.1%. The proportion of pure foreign issuers rose from about 20% in 2023 to nearly 40%. The proportion of bonds with a term of 5 years and above exceeded 20%, and the proportion of bonds with a single - issue scale of over 25 billion yuan rose from 25% to 50% [1] - **Regional and Industry Diversity**: Since 2023, panda bond issuers have covered five continents globally, with new issuers from South America in 2024. The issuer industries include finance, consumption, industry, etc., with new sub - industries such as pulp and original research drugs [1] - **Investment - side Changes**: The proportion of foreign investors and foreign banks in panda bond investment increased from 20% in 2023 to nearly 50% in 2024, due to RMB internationalization, good issuer qualifications, and yield advantages [2] 2024 Highlights - **BASF's First Panda Bond**: In June 2024, BASF issued a 2 - billion - yuan panda bond with a final coupon rate of 2.39%, using an optimized pricing and allocation mechanism [10][11] - **Suzano's First Panda Bond in Latin America**: In November 2024, Suzano issued a 1.2 - billion - yuan green panda bond, highlighting the deepening of China - Brazil bilateral financial cooperation [12] - **UOB's Return and Listing on SGX**: In October 2024, UOB issued a 5 - billion - yuan panda bond, and it was listed on the Singapore Exchange in November, the first panda bond to be listed outside the Greater China region [13] - **Beijing Enterprises' 10 - year Panda Bond**: In April 2024, Beijing Enterprises issued a 2 - billion - yuan 10 - year panda bond, setting multiple market records and forming a relatively complete bond valuation system [14] - **CapitaLand's Sustainable - linked Panda Bonds**: In 2024, CapitaLand issued two phases of panda bonds totaling 2 billion yuan, the first being a sustainable - linked panda bond from a Singaporean enterprise, which helps achieve sustainability goals [16] 2025 Outlook - **Issuance Scale**: The panda bond issuance scale is expected to remain high in 2025, with regular issuers likely to increase issuance frequency, issue long - term bonds, and diversify issuance varieties [17] - **Issuer Structure**: The proportion of pure foreign issuers may further increase, and more issuers from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are expected to enter the market [18] - **Investment - side Trends**: Foreign investors are expected to maintain high enthusiasm for investing in panda bonds due to the optimization of investment mechanisms, and the investment value of panda bonds is expected to be further demonstrated [20] Rating Market - In 2024, China Chengxin International maintained a leading position in the panda bond rating market, with a comprehensive market share of 54% and 70% in the pure foreign issuer rating market [21]

化工日报 | 2025-07-15 需求端库存压力增大，宏观氛围偏暖 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、国内社融和出口数据好于预期，宏观气氛偏暖。 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，短期胡赛武装对红海商船扰动影响原油供应预期，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN253美元/吨(环比变动-8.25美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 8 元/吨(环比变动+8元/吨），PTA现货加工费124元/吨（环比变动-56元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费362元/吨（环比变动+2元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-10 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱 市场要闻与数据 需求方面，聚酯开工率90.2%（环比-1.2%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工呈现下滑趋势，但聚酯表现相对良 性，负荷表现坚挺, 短期长丝负荷预计还能维持,继续关注聚酯库存变化；短纤库存不高，虽然也有减产消息，但 实际执行力度存疑；瓶片方面，华润6.22检修20%已执行，万凯逸盛计划7月初开始检修，涉及产能170万吨，7月 聚酯负荷预计下降至89%~90%，关注实际兑现情况。 PF方面，现货生产利润262元/吨（环比+36元/吨）。短纤现货偏紧、库存不高，PF自身基本面尚可，但下游对原料 高价位接受能力有限，大多刚需采购为主，，但需求走弱预期，关注成本端支撑。 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费405元/吨(环比变动+35元/吨)，随着价格下跌，市场贸易商和下游客户补仓动作有所增多。 基本面方面，逸盛和万凯检修逐步兑现中，预计瓶片负荷将进一步下滑。短期而言，在减产逐步兑现下瓶片加工 费预计会有所修复，但上方空间有限. 策略 弱需求叠加新装置预期，PTA基差快速走弱，市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月投产。 市场分析 成本端 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/08 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 7/01 67.1 571 861 4980 6990 66.98 290.0 287 132 85.7 78.2 34428 200 0.30 2025/0 7/02 69.1 572 854 4925 6955 65.67 282.0 271 133 85.7 78.2 34428 150 0.45 2025/0 7/03 68.8 577 850 4890 6890 73.08 273.0 253 95 85.7 78.2 33218 145 0.45 2025/0 7/04 68.3 579 840 4835 6885 78.11 261.0 256 139 82.8 78.2 33074 105 0.35 2025/0 7/07 69.6 577 842 4810 6770 66.98 265.0 213 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton). The US government lifted restrictions on exporting ethane to China, causing EG to open lower and then fluctuate. The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton). The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, showing a benign de - stocking in the short - term, but the market's transferable spot will increase after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants restart. In early July, foreign ships will arrive intensively. On the demand side, the current demand is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,288 yuan/ton (a change of - 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.26%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,361 yuan/ton (a change of + 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of + 0.02%), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 76 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 75 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 US dollars/ton), and that of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 34 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The demand side is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans in early July, with a weak demand forecast [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the main ports of East China was 545,000 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 77,000 tons) according to CCF and 542,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons) according to Longzhong. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, which may lead to a rise in inventory [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term weak performance under increasing supply and decreasing demand, but limited downside space [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - Due to power issues, four sets of Saudi Arabian devices had a large - scale short - stop, with a total capacity of 2.15 million tons, and are expected to resume operation within 1 - 2 weeks. Affected by this news, EG prices rose in the late trading session [1] - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1] - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure still shows a benign inventory reduction. However, after the warehouse receipts are gradually cancelled and flow out, the transferable spot in the market will be supplemented to a certain extent. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas devices are gradually restarting, and foreign ships will arrive in a concentrated manner at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans at the beginning of July, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,273 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton, +0.14% compared to the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,328 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton, -0.16% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 69 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - to - EG was - 79 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - to - syngas - to - EG was 9 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - Not elaborated in the text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - Not elaborated in the text Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 545,000 tons (- 77,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory was 506,000 tons (- 31,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 67,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The planned arrival at the East China main ports this week is 150,000 tons, and the port inventory may rise again [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cost side is affected by the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. If the conflict escalates and affects energy facilities or the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may face further upward risks; if the situation is controlled and parties seek peace talks, the geopolitical premium may decline again [1]. - In the gasoline and aromatics sectors, the gasoline crack spread in the US has retraced again. With the substitution of new energy, the upside potential for gasoline crack spreads is limited, and the blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [1]. - For PX, the short - term unilateral trend of PX/PTA/PF/PR is bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict, but if the conflict eases, prices may fall. The supply - demand situation of PX remains tight due to unplanned overseas plant shutdowns, while the tightness of PTA's spot market liquidity has eased [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price and Spread - The report analyzes the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as various processing fees and profit margins such as PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, short - fiber profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [8][9]. 2. PX and PTA Supply - This week, China's PX operating rate was 85.6% (down 0.2% week - on - week), and Asia's was 74.3% (down 1.3% week - on - week). Domestic PX load was basically stable, while overseas facilities had more changes. The Israel - Iran conflict led to the shutdown of PX plants in Iran and Israel, and the restart of Saudi Arabia's Rabigh aromatics plant was postponed. Several domestic PX plants are planned for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of goods [2]. - China's PTA operating rate was 79.1% (down 3.5% week - on - week), and the PTA spot processing fee was 412 yuan/ton (compared to 42 yuan last week). Some PTA plants reduced their loads or shut down as planned, and the tightness of the spot market's liquidity has eased [2]. 3. Inventory - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts and forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [8][9]. 4. Demand - This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 65.0% (down 2.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate was 92.0% (up 1.1% week - on - week). Domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season, with terminal orders and operations showing a downward trend, but polyester has performed relatively well. After the raw material prices rose, there was a concentrated restocking, and the inventory of filament decreased. However, at high prices, the inventory pressure may increase [3]. 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 95.1% (up 3.0% week - on - week), the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories were 12.1 days (up 0.6 days week - on - week), and the inventory of 1.4D polyester staple fiber increased. Affected by the Israel - Iran situation, the price of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated upwards, but the increase was less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin was slightly compressed [3]. 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 80.7% (up 0.9%), the bottle - chip factory inventory was 17.4 days (up 1.9 days week - on - week), and the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 186 yuan/ton (down 129 yuan from last week). The overall transaction in the polyester bottle - chip market was average this week. Although some overseas customers made supplementary purchases, the processing fee is still under pressure in the short term. Major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans, which will have a greater impact on the bottle - chip load [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol (EG) has increased due to more EG plant shutdowns in Iran and the upward movement of crude oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts. The EG futures and spot prices have both risen, with the main contract closing at 4400 yuan/ton (+0.59% from the previous trading day) and the East China spot price at 4470 yuan/ton (+0.74% from the previous trading day). The cost - push effect on EG is significant, and the EG market has shown an upward trend. The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), while that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] - In terms of inventory, different data sources show a decline in EG inventory at the East China main ports. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm under the influence of Iranian plant shutdowns. [2] - Regarding the overall supply - demand fundamentals, the domestic supply will gradually recover in June, with a low overall load and a positive de - stocking situation. Overseas supply is affected by the Iranian plant shutdowns due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, there are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, resulting in weak demand expectations. [2] - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, with a focus on the further evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading. [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4400 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton, +0.59% from the previous trading day), and the East China spot price was 4470 yuan/ton (+33 yuan/ton, +0.74% from the previous trading day). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 85 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG is - 40 dollars/ton (down 3 dollars/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - based syngas EG is 117 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from the previous period). [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on international price differences are provided in the text other than the mention of the chart "Ethylene glycol international price difference: US FOB - China CFR". [19] Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - There are new maintenance plans for bottle - chip factories, indicating weak demand expectations. Attention should be paid to the polyester production reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large EG plants. [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the EG inventory at the East China main ports was 61.6 million tons (down 1.8 million tons from the previous period), and according to Longzhong data, it was 56.4 million tons (down 3.4 million tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 10.8 million tons, and the planned arrivals this week are 10.0 million tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable. [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). Due to the Israel-Iran conflict, two EG plants in Iran with a total capacity of 950,000 tons unexpectedly shut down, leading to an increase in EG prices on Monday. The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The inventory data from different sources showed a decline, and the port inventory was expected to be stable. The supply in June in China was gradually recovering, and the overall load was not high. Overseas supply was affected by the situation in Iran. The demand decreased due to polyester production cuts [1][2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term strategy for a single position is bullish, and attention should be paid to the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,374 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton, +0.92% compared to the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,437 yuan/ton (+11 yuan/ton, +0.25%). The East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 86 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$38/ton (up $9/ton), and that of coal - based syngas EG was 106 yuan/ton (up 79 yuan/ton). The report also mentioned relevant profit data for other production methods and the overall and syngas - based operating rates of EG [1][10]. International Spread - The report presented the international spread of ethylene glycol (US FOB - China CFR) [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - It covered the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips [21][23]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it was 564,000 tons (down 34,000 tons). The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 108,000 tons, and the planned arrivals this week were 100,000 tons. The port inventory was expected to be stable [2].