Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market saw PX prices rise significantly in the morning due to news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's potential maintenance, but prices dropped in the afternoon as the maintenance time was not confirmed and the Hengli Huizhou PTA plant, which had stopped last week, might resume earlier [1]. - The cost - end is affected by Powell's dovish stance and the Fed's increasing interest - rate cut expectations, with the macro - sentiment boosted. The fundamentals fluctuate around the prospects of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical conflict after the US - Russia meeting, showing an overall range - bound movement [2]. - In the PX sector, the PXN was $267/ton (a month - on - month decrease of $3.50/ton). With the recent recovery of China's PX load and increased PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to a loose balance, and the floating price of near - month PX has weakened. However, PX remains in a low - inventory state, and there is support below the PXN [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract was - 11 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 205 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main - contract disk was 359 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton). With increased PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the September PTA balance sheet has shifted from a loose balance to significant de - stocking. Hengli's reduction of September contracts may cause supply - demand tension in the South China region [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 90.0% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%), showing signs of recovery. The inventory of filament factories has significantly decreased, and profitability has gradually improved. The load of bottle - grade polyester chips is expected to recover in September [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 41 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan/ton), and the average load of direct - spinning polyester staple fibers has increased to 91.9%. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the willingness to chase up raw - material prices is insufficient [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips was 261 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton). The fundamentals have changed little, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term. The spot processing fee is expected to recover [3]. - In terms of strategies, a cautious and slightly bullish stance is recommended for PX/PTA/PF/PR. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on PF processing fees at a low price. There is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The report presents charts on the TA main - contract price, basis, and inter - period spread, as well as the PX main - contract price, basis, and inter - period spread, and the PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts show the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Charts cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [27][29] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - The report provides information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][37] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [39][42][43] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Information includes filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple - fiber load, polyester bottle - grade chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [51][53][62] 7. Detailed PF Data - Charts show the polyester staple - fiber load, polyester staple - fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple - fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory in - house inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory in - house inventory available days [73][76][83] 8. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Information covers the polyester bottle - grade chip load, bottle - grade chip factory inventory days, bottle - grade chip spot processing fee, bottle - grade chip export processing fee, bottle - grade chip export profit, East China water - bottle - grade chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - grade chip spread, bottle - grade chip next - month spread, and bottle - grade chip next - next - month spread [94][96][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The unplanned shutdown of large - scale PTA plants has led to a significant increase in prices. The shutdown of two 2.5 - million - ton plants of Hengli will affect 5 million tons of PTA production capacity, accounting for 5.5% of the total PTA production capacity and 30% of Hengli's total PTA production capacity. This may cause a monthly loss of up to 400,000 tons, and the supply - demand situation in September will change from balance to significant de - stocking[1]. - In terms of cost, the meeting between the US and Russian presidents ended with a good negotiation atmosphere but no agreement. The geopolitical situation continues to impact crude oil prices, which are in a short - term range - bound pattern. The PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but the overall PX inventory remains low, and there is support below the PXN[2]. - The most pessimistic period for PTA demand has passed. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the de - stocking amplitude from August to September has significantly increased. However, the supply of old goods is abundant due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts[2]. - The polyester operating rate is 89.4% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%). The most pessimistic period of the off - season for demand has passed, and there are signs of improvement in local orders. The polyester load is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term[3]. - For PF, the demand has improved slightly but is limited. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover and then return to range - bound fluctuations[3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis[8][9][11]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit[17][20]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit[25][27]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia[28][31][33]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory[37][40][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits[48][50][52]. VII. Detailed PF Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee[71][78][82]. VIII. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips spread, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread[87][94][96].

Group 1 - Recent price increases in various chemical and industrial products have raised market concerns about the drivers behind this trend, its sustainability, and the potential for performance recovery among upstream and downstream companies [1] - The price of sucralose, a high-intensity sweetener, has been adjusted to 185 RMB per 25 kg package, equivalent to 18.5 million RMB per ton, reflecting a significant increase from previous prices [2][4] - The recent price surge is attributed to a combination of cost pressures and improved policy environments, particularly the enforcement of anti-"involution" policies that have led to reduced production and more rational competition in the sucralose industry [4][7] Group 2 - The price of sucralose has experienced significant fluctuations, with a peak of over 480,000 RMB per ton in early 2022, followed by a decline that saw prices drop below 130,000 RMB per ton, leading to widespread losses among producers [4][5] - The current price increase marks a recovery from a low point, with prices rising by 85,000 RMB per ton compared to last year's minimum, indicating a shift away from the "bottom range" [5] - The market for sucralose is expected to improve due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand, particularly in the fourth quarter as holiday seasons drive up consumption [5] Group 3 - The sucralose market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding over 95% market share, and leading company Jinhe Industrial accounting for more than 55% of the global market [6][7] - The ongoing rationalization of competition is expected to enhance the profitability of companies, as the industry moves away from destructive price wars that have historically hindered innovation and sustainable development [7] - The trend towards healthier, reduced-sugar products suggests a continued growth potential for sucralose, with the recent price adjustments signaling the beginning of a new development cycle in the sweetener industry [7][8]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may continue to trade in a narrow range in the short term, constrained by high inventory and coal chemical restarts above, and supported by cost margins below. The market expects the mid - term supply - demand contradiction to ease, but the rebound of near - term contracts is limited. It is recommended to focus on the impact of oil and coal price fluctuations on cost logic [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China also rose by 35 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton. The basis shrank by 35 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened slightly from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, and the far - month structure remained at a discount [1] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the main contract decreased by 5762 lots to 199,600 lots, while the trading volume increased by 13,300 lots to 94,000 lots, indicating increased short - term capital games and some short - sellers closing their positions [1] - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.98 percentage points to 63.28%, with the coal - based operating rate rising by 2.53 percentage points to 58.98%, and the oil - based operating rate remaining at a high of 66.15%. All process routes are in losses, but no large - scale production cuts have occurred, resulting in continuous short - term supply pressure [1] - **Demand**: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43% without change. Weak terminal orders led to mainly rigid demand procurement of polyester raw materials, and the demand side lacked upward drivers [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 58,500 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating faster unloading at ports but lower shipping efficiency and accumulating explicit inventory pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose from 4422 yuan/ton to 4457 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase. The spot price in the East China market rose from 4455 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton, also a 0.79% increase. The basis decreased from 38 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton, a 92.11% decline [4] - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of MEG widened from - 45 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a 26.67% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased from 83 yuan/ton to 76 yuan/ton, an 8.43% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 38 yuan/ton to - 43 yuan/ton, a 13.16% decrease [4] - **Profits**: The coal - based profit remained at - 314 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage points to 63.3%, the coal - based operating rate increased by 2.5 percentage points to 59.0%, and the oil - based operating rate remained unchanged at 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase; the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase; the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decrease [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the negotiation price in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained stable in the afternoon, with no reported transactions. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton. The price in the South China market increased, but the trading was light. Affected by the US - Russia meeting and weekend polyester sales, the futures market adjusted upwards, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4485 yuan/ton [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at East China main ports, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply glut leads to weakening oil prices, but downside support is rising; short - term there may be a small rebound [1]. - LPG has a low valuation, and its position has risen to a recent high, increasing the rebound momentum [1]. - Cost support for L has weakened, while the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - The cost of PP continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, and the export profit margin has turned negative, with weak downstream restocking power [1]. - The upstream operation of PVC has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks; the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The supply - demand of PX is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high; the cost support of oil prices is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of PTA devices has little change, the demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of ethylene glycol devices has increased slightly, the arrival and import are lower than the same period, and the demand is weak [1]. - As the delivery month approaches, the market focus of glass has shifted from macro - policy expectations to its own fundamentals, and the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase [2]. - The pattern of the soda ash industry has not improved significantly, the supply is high, and the inventory has increased [2]. - The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially, showing a supply - surplus situation [2]. - The domestic methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high; the demand is expected to weaken [2]. - The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good [2]. - The cost of asphalt has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the supply - demand has decreased, with a neutral - bearish fundamental situation [2]. - The spot price of propylene in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the downstream demand has not kept up, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 0.73%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC up slightly by 0.02% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually rising. The oil price still has compression space, but the downside support is gradually strengthening, and it may be suppressed around $60 in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, US crude oil production increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 13.488 million barrels per day; in July, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline; in July, the crude oil shipped from Russian ports was 3.46 million barrels per day. As of August 3, the arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 190,000 tons, a decline of 8.18%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. After taking profit on short positions, you can wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [6]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 7, the PG main contract closed at 3,837 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently. As of August 7, the number of warehouse receipts was 10,199 lots, up 480 lots month - on - month. As of the week of August 8, the LPG commodity volume was 529,200 tons, up 2,700 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the center of gravity is expected to move down. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3870] [11]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 67 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. Most devices have restarted recently, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,075 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 31 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, the export profit margin has turned negative, and the downstream restocking power is weak. The basis for further negative fundamentals is limited, and there is technical support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually when the price is low [25]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,046 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream operation has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks. The calcium carbide price has risen continuously, and the cost support has improved. New production capacity will be released in August, and the supply - demand is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5200] [32]. 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 118 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have little change. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand has weakened slightly but is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to low - buying opportunities; at the same time, sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6790] [37]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the PTA price in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was - 4 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The operation of the devices has decreased slightly. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand tight - balance in August is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4640 - 4710] [41]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 75 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have increased their load slightly, but the arrival and import are still lower than the same period. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in July and August, and the inventory is low [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4410] [45]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation has continued to decline, the futures price has fallen slightly, the basis in Hubei has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the sentiment is cautious. A glass production line has been restarted, the production has increased, the sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [50]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has declined, the futures price has fallen slightly, the negative basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts has increased [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The supply has increased slightly this week, and the inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.11 Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has declined, the futures price has fallen, the center of gravity has moved down, the main - contract basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant. The terminal alumina industry's demand for caustic soda is low, and the non - aluminum terminal demand is limited. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.12 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, the port basis was - 8 yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 61 US dollars/ton [61]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory has accumulated, and the cost support has stabilized [62]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options; pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Take profit on the MA9 - 1 spread gradually when it rebounds. Pay attention to the range of MA [2355 - 2400] [63]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase next week, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, the factory inventory has decreased but is still high compared with the same period, and the export is relatively good [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully for the 09 contract and pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [2]. 3.14 Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, the supply - demand has decreased, the inventory has accumulated, and the fundamental situation is neutral - bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2]. 3.15 Propylene - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, the upstream operation rate has decreased marginally, the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it remains in a state of inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is not high. With the current low processing fees for spot goods persisting for some time, and considering the limited inventory pressure of filament and the continuous inventory reduction of bottle - grade chips at low operation rates, the polyester operation rate is expected to gradually stabilize and has upward potential. It is advisable to look for opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices [2]. - For MEG, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not significant, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. The situation is favorable and the profit margin is decent. However, in the far - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to the restart of overseas plants and the further increase of coal - based operation rates. The valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, as the finished - product inventory of the polyester yarn end is reduced, the downstream operation rate may increase. Although the supply of staple fiber itself may also increase, considering that the processing fees on the futures market are still in a relatively low range, opportunities to expand processing fees by buying at low prices can be considered [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level but does not show seasonal reduction. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber has rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, crude oil prices dropped from $69.7 to $66.4, PTA internal - market spot prices decreased from 4750 to 4690, and PTA processing fees decreased from 121 to 101. The PXN spread weakened significantly, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits declined [2]. - **Device Changes**: Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and its 1.2 - million - ton plant restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton plant reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the MEG external - market price decreased from 523 to 525, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased from 506 to 512. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 568 to - 554 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton plant restarted, and Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton plant was under maintenance [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6600 to 6550, and the short - fiber profit increased from 21 to 21 (with fluctuations in between). The cotton - polyester staple fiber spread increased from 8185 to 8340 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Xianglu's small - line plant was under maintenance, and the operation rate decreased slightly to 90.3% [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard spot increased from 1720 to 1760, and the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased from 13910 to 14150. The RU main - contract price increased from 14310 to 15525 [2]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread between the mixed rubber and the RU main - contract decreased from - 260 to - 1215, and the spread between the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard and the NR main - contract increased from 197 to 289 [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From August 1 to August 7, the price of pure benzene (East China) increased from 6070 to 6135, and the domestic styrene profit remained at - 198 (with fluctuations in between). The EPS domestic profit decreased from 320 to 200 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - BZ port inventory decreased slightly without further accumulation. Short - term downstream demand for BZ is okay, but CPL and styrene开工 rates have declined, and there is still some finished - product inventory pressure downstream, with a drop in phenol - acetone开工 rate. On the supply side, the shipping pressure from South Korea has not further increased, but the new production capacity of Yulong Petrochemical in China has an impact, and BZ processing fees continue to consolidate at a low level [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory declined again during the week. The port basis and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread of futures rebounded from the bottom. Combined with the increase in downstream提货 volume, it reflects the speculative demand for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" has emerged. However, the production schedule of white goods at the terminal is still average, there is still inventory pressure for downstream PS and ABS, and the production profit of hard plastics is also average, so the sustainability of restocking is in doubt [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures include the relationship between the pure benzene main contract basis and the pure benzene main futures contract price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [8][12][18]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and pure benzene FOB South Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [20][23][34]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [40][42][45]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures display EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [52][54][56]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [60][64][81]. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread between near - month BZ paper cargo and distant BZ2603 is high, and conduct reverse arbitrage when the BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread is high; conduct reverse arbitrage when the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The short - term market is range - bound, but the oil market will turn from boom to bust in the second half of the year as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates and new supplies enter the market. Unless the US increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a significant decline in supply [1]. - The PTA spot processing fee is at a low level. Although the short - term supply - demand situation has improved due to PTA maintenance, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly in August. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [1][2]. - The polyester load remains firm in the short term, but the terminal demand has not improved significantly. The improvement of the demand side still needs to wait for the seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August [2]. - PF is dragged down by downstream production cuts, with low inventory - holding willingness, and the near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory warehouse receipt cancellation. The PR processing fee is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton after repair [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Figures show TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filaments, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][61] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, and the operating rates and processing fees of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [71][72][80] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [90][92][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,389 yuan/ton (a change of -16 yuan/ton or -0.36% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4,455 yuan/ton (a change of -25 yuan/ton or -0.56% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 78 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 5 yuan/ton). The ethylene-based EG production profit was -$49/ton (a month-on-month decrease of $3/ton), and the coal-based syngas EG production profit was 42 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 24 yuan/ton). The MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 516,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 5,000 tons) according to CCF data and 427,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 48,000 tons) according to Longzhong data. The actual arrivals at the main ports last week were 103,000 tons, lower than the planned value, with a slight de-stocking of port inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the main ports are 138,000 tons, and with concentrated arrivals at secondary ports, the main ports are expected to see inventory accumulation [2]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: On the supply side, domestically, the syngas - based load of ethylene glycol has returned to a high level and can be further increased. Some EO - EG co - production units are switching from EO to EG. Overseas, the Saudi sharq series of plants have restarted, and the supply of ocean - going cargo is expected to gradually return to normal. On the demand side, there was concentrated restocking at the end - user level in July, relieving the inventory pressure of filament yarns. The polyester load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. There will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels at the beginning of August, with a slight inventory accumulation in the balance sheet. The port inventory is expected to remain low and slightly increase in August [3]. 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish due to weakening market sentiment and the decline of coking coal. - **Inter - period**: No strategy. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy [4]. 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Analyzes the closing price of the main EG contract, the spot price in the East China market, and the spot basis in East China [2]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the ethylene - based EG production profit, coal - based syngas EG production profit, and the overall load of ethylene glycol production [2]. International Price Difference - Analyzes the international price difference between the US FOB and China CFR of ethylene glycol [20]. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Considers the sales and production of filament yarns and short - fiber yarns, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle - chip [21][23][25]. Inventory Data - Focuses on the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China, including the inventory data from different sources, actual and planned arrivals, and the inventory situation of different ports [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - **价差情况**: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **利润情况**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - **库存与到港量**: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].