证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 水线下的冰山 "政策克制+需求前置"下的预期差 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：董德志 0755-81982035 0755-22940456 021-60933158 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn lizn@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 S0980516060001 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 贸易战：已非核心叙事 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 今年3月以来，我国出口增速逐月回落，分别为12.3%、8.1%、4.8% • 但实际出口规模稳定，位于3000亿美元中枢附近，顺差情况类似 • 结构上看，对美出口显著萎缩，分别为9.1%、-21.0%、-34.5% • 转口贸易对冲明显，美国盟友对华进口上升 缘由一：短期冲击可控 缘由一：短期冲击可控 图：我国出口规模维持平稳 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图：对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight financial opening measures aimed at enhancing financial regulation, digital finance, structural monetary policy tool innovation, and supporting cross-border trade, reflecting a deeper consideration of monetary policy to support the real economy and stabilize foreign trade development [1][2]. Financial Regulation - The first policy focuses on financial regulation, indicating the PBOC's heightened attention to potential risks in cross-market transactions within the banking system. A trading report database will be established to collect and analyze transaction data across various financial sub-markets [2]. - The current banking system, dominated by banks, necessitates a focus on their safety to ensure overall financial stability. As net interest margins narrow, banks are diversifying their asset allocations, which may increase cross-market risk contagion [2]. Structural Monetary Policy Tool Innovation - The PBOC's innovation in structural monetary policy tools includes pilot programs in Shanghai for blockchain letters of credit refinancing, cross-border trade refinancing, and expanding carbon reduction support tools [3][4]. - The use of rediscounting to support cross-border trade financing for import and export enterprises is emphasized, addressing the inefficiencies of traditional monetary policy tools [3][4]. - The focus on the bond market to support the development of technology innovation enterprises is highlighted, addressing the challenges these companies face in bond issuance and risk mitigation [4]. Currency and Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC, in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, will research the promotion of RMB foreign exchange futures trading to help financial institutions and foreign trade enterprises manage exchange rate risks more effectively [5]. Overall Policy Focus - The overall focus of the PBOC's financial policies is on financial regulation and the use of structural monetary policy tools to support the real economy, indicating a shift towards a more nuanced understanding of monetary policy beyond just aggregate tools [5].

为深入贯彻金融"五篇大文章"战略部署，紧扣重庆市"六区一高地"目标任务，中国人民银行重庆市分行 近期推出"五个百亿级"货币政策工具支持计划，聚焦科创、绿色、消费、外贸、民营经济五大领域，通 过资金精准投放与金融服务优化，为重庆经济高质量发展注入强劲动能。 构建"1000亿+"资金池 定向滴灌五大领域 此次计划整合1000亿元低成本资金，构建"专用额度+政策倾斜额度"双支撑体系：一方面，从人行重庆 市分行直接管理的支农支小再贷款、再贴现中，切出850亿元专用额度，定向支持科创、绿色等领域； 另一方面，引导全国性银行争取总行政策工具，新增150亿元倾斜额度，强化资金协同效应。五大领域 将分别获得"渝科融""渝绿融""渝消融""渝通融""渝民融"百亿级专属工具支持，实现金融资源精准滴 灌。 五大专属工具 锚定领域发展痛点 1.创设百亿级"渝科融"，聚焦高新技术企业、"专精特新"中小企业等，提供低成本信贷，助力重庆建设 具有全国影响力的科技创新中心，为现代产业体系筑牢"技术根基"。 2.创设百亿级"渝绿融"，覆盖绿色项目、转型活动及绿色主体，推动国家级绿色金融改革创新试验区建 设，加速重庆"美丽中国先行区"生态实践。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience of China's foreign trade amid the easing of US-China tariffs, with a focus on the strategies employed by MIC International Station to capitalize on the current market opportunities and diversify export markets [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first five months of the year, China's goods trade exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with May's single-month export growth reaching 6.3%, indicating a stable upward trend [1]. - The "American Stocking Festival" launched by MIC International Station has become a key opportunity for foreign trade enterprises to secure US orders during the 90-day policy buffer period following tariff reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Strategies - MIC International Station's "American Stocking Festival" utilizes multi-channel promotion and multilingual exposure to empower Chinese suppliers to seize market opportunities in the US [2]. - The platform introduced a "15-day fast delivery" service during the festival, focusing on merchants capable of quick shipping to meet buyer demands [2]. - The festival also features a "hot sales leaderboard" to guide buyers towards high-demand products, with significant interest in categories such as sportswear, machinery, and food processing equipment [3]. Group 3: Market Diversification - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying export markets to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single market, especially in light of ongoing uncertainties [4]. - Data from MIC International Station shows that regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Europe experienced over 40% growth in platform traffic in the first five months, with the Middle East seeing a 59% increase in May alone [4]. - The "New Maritime Plan" launched by MIC International Station aims to facilitate targeted operations in high-potential markets, reducing entry barriers for foreign trade enterprises [4][5]. Group 4: Success Stories - Companies like Shanghai Kairui Industrial Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Fannis Technology Co., Ltd. have successfully expanded into new markets, leveraging MIC International Station's market analysis and resource integration capabilities [5]. - The upcoming "Golden Autumn Procurement Fair" scheduled for August 1 aims to further enhance the multi-channel layout and connect diverse market supply chains [5].

Group 1: Employment Stability - The policy emphasizes stabilizing employment, particularly focusing on youth employment, including college graduates, through various support measures such as subsidies and special loans [3] - The maximum credit limit for small enterprises has been increased from 30 million to 50 million yuan, and individual loans can go up to 10 million yuan [3] - The policy aims to support migrant workers and small and foreign trade enterprises by enhancing job stability and providing targeted services [3][4] Group 2: Business Support - The policy introduces measures to support foreign trade enterprises facing operational difficulties, ensuring they can access loans quickly and fully [4] - A financial service mechanism for private enterprises has been established, aiming to provide over 500 billion yuan in new credit through the "Xinyi Loan" platform by 2025 [4][5] - The policy includes subsidies for insurance related to intellectual property protection to support business operations [5] Group 3: Market Stability - The initiative aims to boost domestic demand by organizing over 1,000 promotional consumption events and providing 50 million yuan in funding for retail and dining vouchers [7] - The policy promotes the integration of various sectors with the aging population economy and supports the development of automotive culture and tourism [7] - Plans are in place to organize over 370 international exhibitions and support over 6,000 enterprises in participating in domestic international exhibitions [7] Group 4: Expectations Management - The policy focuses on enhancing government services and optimizing policy effectiveness, with plans to update 100 service scenarios by the end of the year [8] - It aims to improve coordination between economic and non-economic policies to ensure a unified approach [8] - The policy includes measures to secure land for major infrastructure projects and ensure the availability of necessary resources [8] Group 5: Implementation Timeline - The policies outlined in the document will take effect immediately upon issuance and remain valid until December 31, 2025 [9]

6月16日，国家统计局发布5月份国民经济运行数据。总的来看，5月份，随着政策组合效应持续释放， 稳经济促发展效果显现，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，充分展现了我国经济的韧性和活 力。也要看到，外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内需求扩大内生动能尚需增强，经济持续回升向好基础 仍需稳固。 国家统计局解读： 5月份经济运行总体平稳 部分指标继续改善 今年以来，受国际贸易政策不确定性影响，全球世界经济增长动能减弱，我们看到全球贸易增长也在放 缓，这不可避免地会影响我国进口的增长。同时，部分国家加码贸易限制性措施，也对我国进口产生一 些不利影响。还有，今年国际经济增长动能减弱后，国际大宗商品价格明显下滑，特别是能源价格。 在部分商品进口额下降的同时，我国主要工业产品进口保持增长，前5个月机电产品进口额同比增长 6%，其中自动数据处理设备及其零部件、集成电路进口额分别增长69%、7.3%。下阶段，随着国内需 求不断扩大，自主开放和单边开放有序扩大，中国大市场必将为世界提供更大机遇和更多选择。 第四次全国农业普查工作正处在准备阶段 当前，第四次全国农业普查工作正处在准备阶段，主要是组建普查机构，研制普查方案，开展普查 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant recovery in consumption this year, with stable growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, and resilient export performance, suggesting a positive shift in the economy's "three drivers" [1] - Economic growth in the second quarter is expected to exceed 5%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target [1] - The new model of real estate development is anticipated to more effectively address structural supply-demand mismatches in the second half of the year [1] - Continued support for foreign trade policies is expected to inject more certainty into the economy amid declining global economic momentum and rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation in Shenzhen's Comprehensive Reform Pilot" marks the initiation of a new round of comprehensive reform trials in Shenzhen, with a focus on enhancing innovation and opening up the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Government Support and Initiatives - The Guangdong provincial government will fully support Shenzhen's reform exploration, including reforms in education, technology, and talent systems, as well as market-oriented allocation of resources [1]. - Shenzhen aims to build a new high-level open economic system, benchmarking against global best practices to create a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment [1][2]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Innovation and Development - Shenzhen will focus on becoming a national hub for artificial intelligence innovation and low-altitude economy, targeting key core technologies and implementing innovative reform measures [2]. - Specific areas of exploration include AI-assisted medical devices and low-altitude logistics, with the goal of nurturing competitive high-growth innovative enterprises [2]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Strategies - As a city that has achieved 32 consecutive years of foreign trade export growth, Shenzhen will leverage openness to promote reform and development, enhancing its role in domestic and international dual circulation [3]. - Strategies include expanding institutional openness, building a high-level international trade hub, promoting high-level bilateral investment, and enhancing the city's internationalization [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by the Zhongshan government to support local enterprises in navigating the challenges posed by international trade, particularly in the context of rising tariffs and a complex global trade environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - Zhongshan has initiated a large-scale survey of enterprises to better understand their needs and challenges in international trade, which allows for targeted support measures [1]. - The introduction of e-commerce platforms by Zhongshan aims to alleviate inventory pressure for businesses, expanding their market reach and reducing sales costs [2]. - The government has assisted companies in establishing overseas investment firms, reflecting a forward-looking and international perspective in its support for local businesses [2]. Group 2: Trade Performance - Guangdong's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a reported year-on-year growth of 4.9% in the first four months of the year, outperforming the national average growth of 2.5% [1]. - Zhongshan enterprises are diversifying their international market strategies, moving away from reliance on a single market to mitigate risks associated with changing geopolitical conditions [3]. Group 3: Service Philosophy - The principle of "no disturbance when there is no issue, and prompt assistance when there is" has been emphasized by Zhongshan officials, reflecting a balanced approach to government intervention in business operations [2][3]. - Establishing a long-term service mechanism to understand enterprise needs and anticipate market risks is crucial for providing effective support to local businesses [3].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that price is not the only factor determining customer orders; stability and reliability are becoming increasingly important for clients as they navigate a cautious economic environment [2][6][15] Pricing Misconceptions - Misconception 1: Customers negotiating prices does not necessarily mean the initial price was too high; it may simply be a negotiation tactic [3] - Misconception 2: Lowering prices does not guarantee customer satisfaction; it may lead to distrust regarding the initial pricing [4] - Misconception 3: Securing an order does not equate to profit, as post-sale issues can lead to significant costs and complications [5] Changing Customer Psychology - As global inflation persists, customers are making more cautious and rational purchasing decisions, focusing on stability rather than just price [7][12] - Key data indicates that in the U.S., the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 9.1% in June 2022 and remains at 3.5% in March 2025, with core inflation at 3.7%, indicating ongoing pressure on customer spending [9] - In the Eurozone, inflation has decreased to 2.4%, but essential expenses like food and energy are still rising above 3% annually [10] New Pricing Logic - The new pricing formula should focus on cost, customer anxiety, and solutions, emphasizing the sale of peace of mind rather than just low prices [13] - A real-world example illustrates that a customer chose a more expensive supplier due to faster delivery and reliability, highlighting the importance of service over price [13] Practical Strategies - Offering bundled solutions rather than individual products can increase profits and customer satisfaction [14] - Transitioning from a supplier to a project manager role can enhance customer reliance and loyalty [14] - Including added value in quotes, such as faster delivery and comprehensive service, can differentiate offerings from competitors [14] Target Customer Segments - Identifying and focusing on four types of profitable customers can enhance resource allocation and efficiency: 1. Customers who sign annual contracts early [15] 2. Customers willing to engage in product development [15] 3. Customers requesting marketing support [15] 4. Customers who prioritize delivery and quality over price [15] Conclusion - The article concludes that in 2025, the focus for businesses should shift from competing on price to providing reliable service and building trust with customers [17][19]