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有色商品日报-20250801
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 1.26% to $9,607/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss state, but the loss margin narrowed. Core inflation indicators rebounded, intensifying the divergence within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. Trump extended the US - Mexico tariff for 90 days, and China - US negotiations were still ongoing. LME, Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption remained weak. Considering the recent macro - factors and inventory accumulation, copper prices are currently considered weak [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The export of bauxite from Guinea began to decline during the rainy season, and the domestic short - term ore reserves were relatively sufficient with obvious cost support. The supply is expected to increase after the return of Shunda's mining rights. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand margin shifted, leading to smooth inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to be tight in the short term, making it more resistant to price drops compared to electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.89% to $14,950/ton, and SHFE nickel fell to 120,000 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The price of domestic nickel ore decreased slightly, the transaction price of nickel iron moved up, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper dropped 1.26% to $9,607/ton, SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The US June PCE price index and core PCE were higher than expected, intensifying Fed's divergence on rate cuts. LME and Comex inventories increased, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak. Macro - factors and inventory accumulation made copper prices weak [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina price rebounded, aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Guinea's bauxite export declined, domestic ore reserves were sufficient with cost support. Supply is expected to increase. Electrolytic aluminum supply - demand shifted, leading to inventory accumulation. Scrap aluminum supply is expected to be tight [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel dropped 0.89% to $14,950/ton, SHFE nickel fell. LME inventory increased, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore price decreased slightly, nickel iron price moved up, battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased. Short - term prices were affected by sentiment and showed volatility [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory in different regions changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, COMEX inventory increased, and social inventory increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in different regions decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - continuous contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [41][43][45]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [47][48][49].
有色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 31 日)-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 04:16
Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper oscillated weakly, dropping 0.74% to $9,730/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.47% to 78,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remains in a loss state [1]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than the expected 2.6%, but the PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% and significantly lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The US added 104,000 ADP jobs in July, better than the expected 76,000 and the previous value of -33,000. The employment resilience and rising inflation make the Fed more cautious in monetary policy. The Fed's interest - rate meeting last night kept rates unchanged, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, emphasizing inflation risks and solid employment, which suppressed the expectation of a rate cut this year, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to soar [1]. - Domestically, important meetings pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, effectively release domestic demand potential, and continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas [1]. - In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2,283 tons to 232,194 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons; BC copper warrants remained at 3,313 tons [1]. - Affected by the off - season, consumption remains weak. Recently, macro factors have a weak impact. The Fed suppresses the rate - cut expectation, the domestic situation stabilizes, and Trump does not impose additional tariffs on refined copper. The US dollar rebounds, and US copper prices fall, driving copper prices down. Although the impact on LME and Shanghai copper is relatively weak, from the perspective of the recent inventory build - up in three locations, the fundamental support is also quite weak. Therefore, copper is temporarily regarded as weak, and attention should be paid to whether new factors will emerge [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at 3,278 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%, and the open interest increased by 5,266 lots to 154,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.02%, and the open interest decreased by 105 lots to 261,000 lots. Aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at 20,025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.05%, and the open interest decreased by 62 lots to 8,788 lots [1][2]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to 3,248 yuan/ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots continued to be flat, and the quotation fell to 20,660 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to Wuxi. The Foshan A00 aluminum reported at par. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Wuxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods remained stable [2]. - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite has started to decline. Although the domestic short - term bauxite reserves are relatively sufficient, the cost support is obvious. Coupled with the intensification of anti - involution policies, the spot - futures arbitrage window for alumina has opened, and there is still a certain risk of a short squeeze under low warrants. Attention should be paid to the Guinea general election. If the bauxite export policy is tightened, it may strengthen the logic of mine - end disturbances [2]. - The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has gradually changed, leading to a smooth inventory build - up of aluminum ingots. After the spot premium gradually flattened, the aluminum price started to oscillate in a narrow range, waiting for new guidance. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, it will form a new upward pull point. Currently, aluminum alloy lacks an independent driving force, and there is still room for long - position trading when the AD - AL spread corrects [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.57% to $15,085/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to 120,920 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 208,092 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 3,180 tons to 21,759 tons [2]. - In terms of premiums, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative; the premium of imported nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. During the week, the domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased slightly, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and that of the Philippines decreased slightly; the center of the nickel - iron transaction price moved up to 920 yuan/nickel point; battery - grade nickel sulfate increased during the week, the MHP coefficient remained stable, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient remained stable [2]. - In the stainless - steel sector, the raw - material prices showed differentiation. The slowdown in production and the rising prices led to a slight decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis. In terms of primary nickel, the domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly. Overall, in the short term, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little, with support from the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to oscillate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper increased by 260 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 53 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 79,700 yuan/ton, and the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton [3]. - The rough smelting TC remained unchanged at - 43 dollars/ton [3]. - LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,370 tons to 229,909 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons on a weekly basis. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.6 million tons [3]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 58 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 93.6 yuan/ton to - 396.1 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River spot market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of lead concentrates at the factory in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu all decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged [3]. - LME lead inventory increased by 6,025 tons to 276,375 tons, SHFE lead warrants increased by 1,002 tons to 61,934 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 919 tons to 63,254 tons [3]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 105 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 595 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi aluminum price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 30 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of Shanxi low - grade and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton and 640 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of alumina remained unchanged at 380 dollars/ton, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3,215 yuan/ton, and the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged at 6,322 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong and 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained unchanged at 270 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,250 tons to 460,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 1,857 tons to 51,217 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 6,968 tons to 115,790 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 0 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 112.5 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 1449 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased by 600 yuan/ton to 124,150 yuan/ton, the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, and the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port and 1.8% nickel ore at Lianyungang remained unchanged at 465 yuan/ton and 658 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The prices of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,400 yuan/ton, the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Foshan increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of battery - grade nickel sulfate (≥22%) and 523 - type and 622 - type nickel - cobalt - manganese decreased by 300 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 208,092 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 121 tons to 21,759 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 25,451 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 57 tons to 40,281 tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 85 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 1214 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 22,690 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged at $2,505.5/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 9.06 [5]. - The near - far month spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average imported zinc premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton to 2.5 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloy Zamak3 and Zamak5 increased by 110 yuan/ton to 23,305 yuan/ton and 23,855 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,700 yuan/ton [5]. - The weekly TC of domestic Zn50% zinc concentrate and imported Zn50% zinc concentrate remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton and 240 dollars/dry ton respectively [5]. - SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,100 tons to 109,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.36 million tons [5]. - SHFE registered warrants decreased by 75 tons to 15,232 tons, and LME registered warrants remained unchanged at 57,600 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1,832 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 267,740 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 9.72 [5]. - The near - far month spread increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton, the SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 268,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,300 yuan/metal ton to 260,800 yuan/metal ton and 256,800 yuan/metal ton respectively [5]. - The average domestic spot premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 30.5 dollars/ton to 10.5 dollars/ton [5]. - SHFE tin inventory increased by 269 tons to 7,417 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 90 tons to 1,945 tons. SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 7,433 tons, and LME registered warrants increased by 15 tons to 1,365 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 24,191 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premiums - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][11]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads - Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][14][16][17]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2
宝城期货有色日报:有色金属震荡整理-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:15
有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 30 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色金属震荡整理 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落,窄幅震荡。随着市场情绪降温,多数前期大 涨的商品出现减仓下行趋势,沪铜延续减仓态势。短期内商品盘面 转弱,铜价跟随下行,由于前期铜价涨幅有限,因此沪铜也相对抗 跌。后续关注沪铜主力期价在 7.9 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价窄幅震荡整理,持仓量显著下降。随着市场情绪降温, 多数前期大涨的商品出现减仓下行趋势,沪铝延续减仓态势。短期内 商品盘面转弱,叠加铝供需宽松,产业端呈现累库的态势 ...
有色金属日报-20250729
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views - Market sentiment is cautious due to uncertainties such as US copper import tariffs and the performance of various metals in different supply - demand situations. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on short - term and medium - term trends, with a focus on supply, demand, inventory, and price resistance levels [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday saw Shanghai copper oscillating lower. The market awaits the implementation of US copper import tariffs. A decline in copper prices may reach the MA60 moving average. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average. Hold short positions near the integer level [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Seasonal demand decline led to a 3.5 - million - ton increase in aluminum ingot social inventory in the past week. The upper resistance is at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum's oscillation, with short - term pressure but medium - term resilience. Consider a long - AD short - AL strategy when the price difference on the futures market widens. Alumina prices have risen, but the market is in surplus. Trade alumina short near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [2] Zinc - Black metal prices stopped falling and rebounded, causing an uneven adjustment in zinc prices. With increasing supply and weak demand, zinc social inventory is rising. The market shows a split between macro, capital, and fundamentals. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and wait for clear signals [3] Lead - With a weak supply - demand situation, lead's rebound is slow. The upper resistance is at the 20 - day moving average. Supply pressure eases slightly, and the price shows support at 16,800 yuan/ton. Due to consumption concerns, the traditional peak - season performance needs verification. Lightly go long based on cost [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillates. After the hype of anti - involution题材, nickel may return to its fundamentals. Nickel iron inventory decreased, while pure nickel and stainless - steel inventories changed. Wait for short - selling opportunities [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated lower, with short - term support at 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates. Market rumors suggest some mines in Jiangxi have resumed production. Total inventory is at a recent high. Technically, the futures price has returned to a reasonable range. Try a short - term long position with a light position [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly. Spot prices are falling. Although the fundamentals are weak, with increasing production capacity in some areas and decreased demand for organic silicon DMC, the price is at a historical low. Consider a short - term long position with a light position [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose significantly. Spot prices are in a certain range. The supply - demand is in a tight balance. After a sharp rise, the market is in a wide - range shock. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices and control positions [10]
有色延续偏弱震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 10:00
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].
20250729申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250729
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors such as stable domestic downstream demand, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and the expected improvement in concentrate supply and possible recovery of smelting supply this year, combined with positive growth in domestic auto production and sales, stable growth in infrastructure, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry continuing positive growth, auto production and sales showing positive growth, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,000 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 80 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 9,763 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 54.34 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 128,475 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,700 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Recent concentrate processing fees have been continuously rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,615 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 15 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,806 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 1.95 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 115,775 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 20,645 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,631 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 0.58 dollars/ton, LME inventory 450,825 tons, LME inventory daily change 2,725 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 1,220 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 15,230 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 208.46 dollars/ton, LME inventory 203,922 tons, LME inventory daily change - 534 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 16,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,018 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 27.31 dollars/ton, LME inventory 266,275 tons, LME inventory daily change - 3,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 267,700 yuan/ton, domestic basis 3,730 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 33,670 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 20.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 1,740 tons, LME inventory daily change 50 tons [2].
方正中期期货有色金属周度策略-20250728
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue. The short - term price of Shanghai copper lacks a clear driver and maintains low volatility [3]. - The aluminum market sentiment has slightly declined, and it is recommended to wait and see. For different aluminum - related products, corresponding support and pressure intervals are given, and options can be used for protection [5]. - The fundamentals of tin are in a situation of both weak supply and demand, with the market oscillating weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [5]. - The zinc market has an increase in supply and weak demand, with import processing fees rising. The price is expected to be short - term bearish with a certain support level [6]. - The lead market has a recovery in demand, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and the macro - orientation. It can be considered to go long at low prices [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by multiple factors such as the dollar and trade agreements. They are in an oscillating state, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro - logic**: The non - ferrous metal sector rebounded to different degrees this week. Domestic policies are favorable, but the spill - over effect on non - ferrous metals is limited in terms of persistence and intensity. Overseas, tariff negotiations are still ongoing, and the market is cautious. The future trend of non - ferrous metals depends on the resonance of supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [10][12]. - **Single - side strategies for each variety**: - **Copper**: It is recommended to go long at low prices, as the non - US market inventory is low and the domestic copper market is expected to have a supply - demand imbalance with weak supply and strong demand [13]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a strategy of short - term long and medium - term short, as the supply is increasing and the demand is weak [13]. - **Aluminum industry chain**: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term, as the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [14]. - **Tin**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an interval oscillation [14]. - **Lead**: Consider buying a bull spread at low prices or using a wide - interval double - selling strategy, as the market is in an interval arrangement [14]. - **Nickel**: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices, as the market is in an interval fluctuation [15]. - **Stainless steel**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an oscillating state [15]. - **Arbitrage strategies**: - **Copper 2508 - 2509 contract positive spread**: After the tariff expectation is fulfilled, the short - term negative impact on Shanghai copper is basically over, and the domestic copper market fundamentals are turning to weak supply and strong demand [16]. - **Alumina 2502 - 2509 contract reverse spread**: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel), relevant data tracking charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and production capacity utilization rates [22][24][33][35][41][49][57][67]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum and alumina, tin, lead, nickel and stainless steel), relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of Shanghai and London prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts [72][74][75][78][81][86][87]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum), relevant option data charts are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [91][93][94].
有色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 25 日)-20250725
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 06:58
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content was found in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a decline overnight, with LME copper down 0.8% to $9,854.5 per ton and SHFE copper down 0.69% to 79,290 yuan per ton. The domestic spot import remained in a slight loss. Despite many bullish factors, the weekly copper market should be viewed with caution due to uncertainties [1]. - Alumina trended higher, with AO2509 closing at 3,477 yuan per ton, up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a slightly stronger trend. Due to factors such as alumina plant maintenance and raw material stocking, the supply of alumina and aluminum is tightening [1]. - Nickel prices fell overnight, with LME nickel down 0.67% to $15,470 per ton and SHFE nickel down 0.64% to 123,250 yuan per ton. The stainless - steel market's supply - demand pattern is gradually being repaired, but the short - term nickel price is still in a volatile state [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper prices dropped, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories changed. In terms of demand, the off - season led to weak consumption, but some enterprises replenished stocks in advance due to concerns about price increases. Near the end of July and early August, there are many bullish factors, but risks also need attention [1]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, with AO2509 up 2.72%. Aluminum and aluminum alloy also showed a stronger trend. Factors such as plant maintenance and raw material stocking led to a tightening of supply. The aluminum alloy's unilateral rebound space is limited, but AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined overnight. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel inventory remained stable. The stainless - steel market's cost support weakened, and the supply - demand pattern is being repaired. Short - term nickel prices are volatile [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased slightly, and the price of scrap copper increased. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. The social inventory decreased by 25,000 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory increased by 7,186 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME and SHFE aluminum changed, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The inventory of LME nickel decreased, and the social inventory increased by 1,165 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The prices of zinc and zinc alloys increased slightly. The inventory of SHFE zinc increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory increased by 5,300 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The SMM spot price of tin increased by 3,500 yuan per ton. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 51 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It includes charts of the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: It presents the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series products from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report includes charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction to the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many professional achievements [51]. - Wang Heng is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50][51]. - Zhu Xi is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [52].
有色金属日报-20250724
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 09:52
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有色套利早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:19
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