1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish in the short - term [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical events in Venezuela have far - reaching impacts, and the geopolitical premium trading continues. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. Copper is favored in the medium - and long - term due to supply issues and strategic value. Zinc is supported by positive market sentiment and supply contraction expectations but faces risks of a high - level decline. Other metals have their own supply - demand and market - related characteristics affecting their price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver prices have increased. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio and COMEX gold - silver ratio have decreased. The dollar index has slightly declined, and the gold and silver ETFs and net long positions have changed [2]. - **Reasons**: The US economic data is weak, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. There are statements from US officials about the interest rate outlook. There is large - scale physical delivery in the COMEX silver contract, and geopolitical events are escalating [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain the view of an upward trend in the short - and long - term. The short - term support for silver is at 17700, and for gold is at 980. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but beware of the risk of the Bloomberg Commodity Index reducing the silver weight [3]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has reached a new historical high, and London copper has risen by more than 5% and broken through the 13,000 - dollar mark. Copper prices, trading volumes, and inventories have all changed [5]. - **Reasons**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight. Labor strikes and project delays have exacerbated the supply shortage. The supply growth rate of refined copper in China may slow down. Although the domestic copper inventory has increased, the market can accept the seasonal inventory accumulation. The high copper price has an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand in new energy and other fields is expected to be good [6]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - and long - term, copper is still favored. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [99,500, 105,000] yuan/ton, and London copper in the range of [12,800, 13,500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc has fluctuated strongly and returned to the 24,000 - yuan mark. Zinc prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [8]. - **Reasons**: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The production of some domestic and foreign mines is affected, and the zinc smelting plant's operation is weak. The demand in the north is weak, but the new - energy field's demand can make up for part of the gap [9]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the zinc price is supported by positive sentiment and supply contraction, but there is a risk of a high - level decline. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in January. It is recommended to take profit in time for long positions and for enterprises to actively carry out selling hedging. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [23,800, 24,200] yuan/ton, and London zinc in the range of [3,150, 3,250] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The aluminum price has continued to rise, and alumina has stabilized at a low level. Aluminum - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [11]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia has been put into production, and the inventory has increased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the aluminum ingot inventory. The main operation range of aluminum is [22,500 - 24,500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have rebounded and then declined. Nickel - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [15]. - **Reasons**: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and some mines are suspected of illegal occupation of forest land. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has declined [17]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory. The main operation range of nickel is [125,000 - 139,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2605 has opened high and gone high, rising by more than 7%. Lithium - carbonate - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [19]. - **Reasons**: The weekly production has increased slightly, the total inventory has decreased slightly, but the production of downstream positive electrode factories has declined. The short - term news is positive, and the supply may not increase as expected [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to operate at a high level in the range of [125,000 - 135,000] yuan/ton [21].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, SHFE copper opened higher and moved up, with the open interest rising continuously. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. The spot discount turned into a premium, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to rise. The copper price stood above the 100,000 yuan mark again, with obvious capital inflows and strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher and moved up in the morning, with a significant increase in open interest and an intraday increase of more than 3%. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. High aluminum prices inhibited downstream consumption, and the industry followed passively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. The recent strong performance of the aluminum price was partly due to the loose macro - environment and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. When copper was strong, the copper - aluminum ratio began to decline from a high level before the holiday. In the short term, the aluminum price approached the 24,000 yuan mark, the high levels in 2021 and 2022, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose first and then fell, and then the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 134,000 yuan, with the open interest rising continuously during the day. Since late December, the nickel price has rebounded from the 110,000 yuan mark to the 130,000 yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decline in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the nickel price increased with rising open interest, reversing the downward trend. Technically, SHFE nickel has reached the rebound high in March 2025, with certain technical pressure and intensified long - short competition [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 5, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared with the 31st [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared with the 25th [10]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,700 - 142,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Group 1: Report Core Viewpoints - Last night, copper prices were weak, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling to the 96,000 level. Today, it rebounded and closed at the 98,000 level. Due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday and large short - term gains, there was strong willingness to take profits, causing a sharp drop. Today's improved domestic macro - atmosphere and strong buying support led to a continuous rebound. The narrowing of the spot discount indicated increased industrial procurement willingness. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the 100,000 level [6]. - Aluminum prices oscillated downward last night and rebounded today, recovering the previous night's losses, with overall declining positions. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the rising willingness of funds to take profits and the sharp fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals at high levels affected aluminum prices. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. - Last night, non - ferrous metals tumbled collectively, but nickel prices showed resistance. Today, non - ferrous and precious metals rebounded, and nickel prices increased significantly with rising positions. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 level to the 130,000 level, and have been significantly stronger than the non - ferrous sector in recent days, mainly driven by the policy expectations of Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure at the highs in March this year and October last year [8]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - In the North China electrolytic copper spot market, despite the sharp decline in copper prices, demand did not improve significantly as most downstream enterprises were on holiday for New Year's Day or had completed pre - holiday stockpiling. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 224,300 tons, up 22,100 tons from the 25th and 44,300 tons from the 22nd [10]. Aluminum - On December 29, 2025, the Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council announced that from January 1, 2026, the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities would be adjusted. The tariffs on unwrought aluminum alloy (tariff number 76012000) and aluminum scrap (tariff number 76020000) remained unchanged compared with 2025. On December 29, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 638,000 tons, up 26,000 tons from the 25th and 50,000 tons from the 22nd [10]. Nickel - On December 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 128,400 - 136,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 132,550 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][12][13]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline on Monday, with silver prices first surging and then plummeting, dragging down other precious metals. The domestic precious metals market also saw sharp drops [9]. - China will be the first economy to pay interest on central bank digital currency, and the new - generation digital RMB system will be launched on January 1, 2026 [9]. - The Chinese People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command organized military exercises, and the State Council Tariff Commission announced the 2026 tariff adjustment plan [10]. - The market regulatory总局 deployed key tasks for 2026 and introduced new regulations on food production supervision [11]. - In the futures market, different varieties showed various trends. Some agricultural products and energy - chemical products had price fluctuations, and the stock index futures and options market also had its own characteristics [6][13][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chemical Industry - On December 30, 2025, among chemical products, the prices of coking coal, coke, asphalt, methanol, etc. rose, while the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, etc. fell. For example, coking coal rose 20.50 to 1,108.50, with a 1.884% increase; natural rubber fell 65.0 to 15,600.00, with a - 0.415% decrease [6]. 2. Agricultural Products - On December 29, 2025, the prices of some agricultural products showed different trends. Sugar prices were in a low - level range, with cost support but limited upside due to supply pressure. Corn prices rebounded, and peanuts were under pressure below 8000 yuan. The pig market showed signs of stabilization, and the egg market had a strong price - increase expectation. Cotton prices had a short - term correction after rising, but the fundamentals remained strong [13]. 3. Energy - Chemical Products - For caustic soda, the market is expected to continue its weak trend due to supply - demand contradictions. Coking coal and coke markets are in a weak and volatile state. Log prices are in a narrow - range shock, and pulp prices have a greater downward risk. Double - offset paper prices have broken through the previous resistance level, and copper and aluminum prices continue to run at a high level. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. Ferroalloys are currently treated with a bullish short - term view, and lithium carbonate prices have reversed their previous upward trend [14][15][16]. 4. Option Finance - On December 29, 2025, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2 trillion for two consecutive days. The stock index futures and options market had different performance in terms of positions, spreads, and implied volatility. The short - term market may fluctuate, and investors are advised to pay attention to the trading rhythm and moderately increase positions on dips [18][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for each metal variety, the following ratings are provided: - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Control risks [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, medium - long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Rebound and then fall [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then fall [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure, medium - long - term short - selling on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] Core Views - The prices of precious metals such as gold and silver have large fluctuations. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, while silver has short - term risks and long - term bullish logic [1][2][3]. - Copper prices have pulled back significantly due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic [1][4][5][6]. - Zinc prices are under pressure to fall due to factors such as the approaching holiday, the increase in visible inventory, and the decline in processing fees. In the medium - long term, it is a short - allocation in the sector [1][7][8][9]. - Aluminum prices have fallen from high levels. It is recommended to take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory [1][10][11][12][13]. - Nickel prices rebound under pressure. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory [1][14][15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a high - level correction. It is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19][20][21]. Summary by Metal Variety Gold - Core view: Long - term holding. The large fluctuations of silver and platinum affect gold. In the short term, there are no major events driving the fundamentals, and the risk preference for liquidity is acceptable. In the medium - long term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, so the long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Control risks. Short - term over - heated funds are retreating. The gold - silver ratio has decreased rapidly, and the market is in an over - bought range, so beware of high - volatility risks. In the long term, the market bets on continuous interest rate cuts, continuous supply - demand gaps for five years, and global large - scale fiscal policies are all beneficial to silver, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [1]. Copper - Market performance: The price of Shanghai copper has pulled back from a high level. The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 96,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.38% [4]. - Industry logic: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The long - term agreement TC for 2026 is 0 US dollars/ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. High copper prices have an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, and the spot discount has widened [5]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait for a full correction and then enter the market at low prices. In the medium - long term, copper is still optimistic. The short - term attention range for Shanghai copper is [93,500, 98,500] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [11,800, 12,300] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - Market performance: The price of Shanghai zinc has fallen under pressure. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% [7]. - Industry logic: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has decreased, and some high - cost smelters are facing increased losses. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [8]. - Strategy recommendation: Enterprises are recommended to sell hedging and actively lay out on rallies. In the medium - long term, zinc supply increases and demand decreases, and it is still a short - allocation in the sector. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,800, 23,300] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3,050, 3,100] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - Market performance: The aluminum price has fallen from a high level, and the alumina price has stabilized at a low level. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% [10][11]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of some aluminum enterprises in the southwest region may increase due to the approaching dry season. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased. For alumina, the overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [12]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits in the short term and wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,900 - 22,900] yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounds under pressure, and the stainless steel price rebounds. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 125,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% [14][15]. - Industry logic: Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target for 2026. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad remains at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits and wait and see in the short term, paying attention to the change of stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 131,000] yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract LC2605 has risen and then fallen, hitting the daily limit at the end of the session [19]. - Industry logic: The weekly production has increased slightly, and the total inventory has maintained a slight de - stocking. However, the production schedule of cathode material factories in January has decreased by more than 10%, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Wait and see, with the range of [113,700 - 123,700] yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Copper prices rose by over 2% during the weekend night session, hitting a new all - time high. The supply of refined copper concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it generally continued to grow. Power investment is stable; automobile production and sales are growing positively; home appliance production is in negative growth; and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in the copper ore market have led to an expected shift in the global copper supply - demand balance towards a deficit [2]. - Zinc prices rose during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, indicating a temporary shortage in concentrate supply, while smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down; automobile production and sales are growing positively; home appliance production is in negative growth; and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Market Performance - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 98,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 365 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 12,133 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 13.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 158,575 tons, with a daily increase of 825 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,195 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,957 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.59 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 519,600 tons, with no daily change [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of 55 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,087 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 29.14 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 98,975 tons, with a daily decrease of 275 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 124,980 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 4,020 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,660 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 170.66 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 254,604 tons, with a daily increase of 216 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,000 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 42.30 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 253,100 tons, with a daily decrease of 2,850 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 335,020 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,840 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 42,490 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 65.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 4,675 tons, with a daily increase of 50 tons [2].

Group 1 - Precious metals and base metals, including gold, silver, and copper, have reached historical highs, with London gold peaking at $4531.284 per ounce and LME copper at $12282 per ton [1][2] - Domestic futures markets also saw significant increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 6.60% to 18658 yuan per kilogram and Shanghai gold reaching 1023.96 yuan per gram [1] - The current market dynamics are influenced by global liquidity easing expectations, structural supply-demand tensions, and speculative trading behaviors [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that while there are long-term bullish factors like "de-dollarization," the recent rapid price increases may have over-traded these factors, leading to heightened speculative sentiment [2] - Supply disruptions from major copper mines and reduced global copper supply expectations have contributed to bullish market sentiment, alongside U.S. monetary policy easing [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented risk management measures to stabilize the market amid significant volatility, including adjusting margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver futures [3][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a phase of "year-end fund repositioning and sentiment-driven trading," emphasizing the importance of risk management and position control over speculative predictions [4] - Investors are advised to maintain a strategic long position while avoiding chasing high prices, focusing on opportunities for accumulation during price corrections [3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2) Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 25, 2025, which can help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot domestic price is 94,660, LME price is 12,243, and the ratio is 7.62; March domestic price is 96,230, LME price is 12,224, and the ratio is 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 7.98, with a loss of 2,003.83, and a profit of 1,716.73 for spot export [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,097, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 23,270, LME price is 3,126, and the ratio is 5.49. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.39, with a loss of 2,720.57 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot domestic price is 22,030, LME price is 2,933, and the ratio is 7.51; March domestic price is 22,385, LME price is 2,968, and the ratio is 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.35, with a loss of 2,479.20 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot domestic price is 129,900, LME price is 15,697, and the ratio is 8.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.06, with a profit of 45.32 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot domestic price is 17,025, LME price is 1,960, and the ratio is 8.69; March domestic price is 17,200, LME price is 1,998, and the ratio is 11.63. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.63, with a profit of 106.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 2,360, 2,490, 2,530, and 2,560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 571, 1,039, 1,517, and 1,995 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 165, 205, 235, and 250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 218, 343, 467, and 591 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 200, 255, 275, and 315 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 222, 344, 467, and 590 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 245, 220, 245, and 255 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, and 528 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, March, April, and May contracts and the spot - month contract are 4,960, 5,210, 5,370, and 5,720 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts is 1,660, and the theoretical spread is 7,006 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 920 and 1,440 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 302 and 1,169 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 205 and - 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 154 and 290 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 45 and 200 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 145 and 259 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.14, 4.30, 5.59, 0.96, 1.30, and 0.74 respectively; for LME (three - continuous) are 3.94, 4.11, 6.10, 0.96, 1.48, and 0.65 respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 95,000 yuan, with significant position - increasing and upward movement at the end of the session, breaking through the 96,000 - yuan mark. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the downstream was in a strong wait - and - see mood. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning, and due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024. In the short term, macro factors drove the copper price to rise with increased positions, and the industry followed passively, with strong upward momentum for the copper price [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with position - increasing and rising at the end of the session, approaching the December high. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. The aluminum price rose back to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the nickel price rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once reached the 130,000 - yuan mark. Today, it maintained a fluctuating trend around 127,000 yuan. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia increased, driving the nickel price up; the strong spot premium supported the nickel price. In the context of macro - easing, there were again disturbances in industrial supply, and the short - term upward momentum was strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new record high. Last night, Shanghai copper opened above 95,000 yuan/ton. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning. Due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024, and it is expected to continue to decline tomorrow [10]. - **Aluminum**: The chairman and general manager of India's National Aluminium Company (Nalco), Brijendra Pratap Singh, revealed that due to the dual effects of growing demand and limited supply, the aluminum price is expected to rise to about $3,000 per ton in the next fiscal year [11]. - **Nickel**: On December 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,400 - 134,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 130,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 4,950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][43].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-24 广期所调整铂钯保证金比例，警惕高位 波动加剧风险 12⽉23⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约再度涨停，收盘价为619.95元/克，涨幅 10%；钯主⼒合约收盘价为532.55元/克，涨幅5.52%。⼴期所发布通 知，⾃2025年12⽉25⽇结算时起，铂、钯期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 10%，交易保证⾦标准调整为12%。如遇上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证⾦ 标准与现⾏执⾏的涨跌停板幅度、交易保证⾦标准不同时，则按两者中幅 度⼤、标准⾼的执⾏。市场情绪⾼涨下需警惕价格波动⻛险。 铂观点：现货紧缺叠加市场流动性偏宽松，铂价继续冲高 主要逻辑：铂金加速冲高，内外价差持续扩大，截至12月23日收盘，广期 所铂金主力合约国内收盘时点与NYMEX铂金（含税）溢价高达57. 4元/ 克，大幅高于进口成本，存在无风险套利机会，因此未来价差存在收敛倾 向。不过由于套保额度限制等方面的问题，短期价差或仍然偏高。12月 23日广期所发布公告调整涨跌停板幅度与保证金比例，市场情绪高涨下仍 需警惕价格波动风险。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂族金属的 ...