投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡运行，主力期价围绕 8 万关口震荡，振幅收窄，持 仓量变化不大。宏观层面，国内氛围较好，股指呈现上行，商品涨 多跌少，铜价表现乏力。产业层面，下游节前补库意愿较强，给予 铜价支撑。技术上，关注 8 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，国内氛围较 好，商品涨多跌少，铝价企稳回升。产业层面，随着期价下挫，下游 补库意愿上升，电解铝社库累库放缓。技术上，关注 60 日均线 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡下行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡下行，主力期价跌破 8 万关口，持仓量小幅下降。 宏观层面，今日国内盘面较弱，商品和股指均呈现下行态势。产业 层面，铜价高位下挫叠加双节前备库需求，预计产业补库意愿上 升，进而给予铜价支撑，但就目前来看，现货升贴水处于往年同期 低位，库存并未有去化迹象，可持续关注库存动态。技术上，关注 8 万关口多空博弈。 沪铝 今日铝价偏弱震荡，持仓量持续下降。宏观层面，今日国内盘面 较弱，商品和股指均呈现下行 ...

Core Insights - The domestic non-ferrous metal market experienced significant declines on September 23, with major drops in polysilicon and industrial silicon prices [1][2] Price Movements - Industrial silicon futures fell by 1.75%, settling at 8,975.00 CNY/ton - Polysilicon futures decreased by 2.76%, closing at 50,250.00 CNY/ton - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.12%, ending at 2,901.00 CNY/ton - Lead futures declined by 0.44%, finishing at 17,085.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 23 were as follows: - Aluminum oxide: Opened at 2,926.00 CNY, closed at 2,934.00 CNY - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 73,040.00 CNY, closed at 73,420.00 CNY - Copper: Opened at 80,080.00 CNY, closed at 80,160.00 CNY - Nickel: Opened at 121,140.00 CNY, closed at 121,400.00 CNY - Zinc: Opened at 22,080.00 CNY, closed at 22,090.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Inventory Changes - As of September 22, warehouse data indicated the following changes in futures inventory: - Copper futures inventory decreased by 1,945 tons to 29,893 tons - Aluminum futures inventory decreased by 1,198 tons to 70,761 tons - Zinc futures inventory increased by 2,523 tons to 55,054 tons - Lead futures inventory decreased by 2,932 tons to 44,357 tons [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various metals were reported as follows: - Copper: Spot price at 80,233.3 CNY, futures price at 80,120 CNY, basis at 113 CNY - Zinc: Spot price at 21,942 CNY, futures price at 21,995 CNY, basis at -53 CNY - Aluminum: Spot price at 20,826.7 CNY, futures price at 20,770 CNY, basis at 56 CNY [4][5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 2. Market Review - Futures Market: The Shanghai zinc futures market opened lower and rebounded, with the main contract switching to ZN2511, closing at 22,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.14%. The trading volume increased, and the open interest rose by 68,581 lots to 130,425 lots. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and the overseas spot premium widened. The domestic processing fee had limited upward momentum, and the SMM zinc concentrate domestic monthly TC was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, while the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2 US dollars/dry ton to 98.25 US dollars/dry ton. The by - product sulfuric acid price was stable with a slight decline. Due to more smelter overhauls in September and supply shortages in some secondary zinc enterprises, the monthly output was expected to decline by 1 - 20,000 tons to around 600,000 tons, and the supply remained generally loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, but overall consumption in the peak season was not ideal. The inventory was expected to continue to decline this week, and the zinc price would continue to fluctuate between 21,800 - 22,500 yuan [7]. 3. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were concentrated between 19,100 - 22,065 yuan/ton, and different brands had different price ranges and premium/discount situations in different trading periods and regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong [8][17] 4. Data Overview - There are figures showing the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, with data sources including Wind and SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [11][14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - time copper prices closed 0.07% lower. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output shows high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installation is surging but future growth may slow, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed 0.25% lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory is increasing weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 80,190 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 45 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 10,002 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 72.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 147,650 tons with a daily change of - 1,225 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 513,900 tons with no daily change [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,080 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,900 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 45.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 47,825 tons with a daily change of - 1,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 121,400 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 1,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,200 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 177.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 228,444 tons with a daily change of - 6 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,125 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,000 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 45.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 220,300 tons with a daily change of - 2,375 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,510 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,280 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 34,020 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,505 tons with a daily change of - 140 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With macro disturbances decreasing and industrial support increasing, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. After the short - term profit - taking of long positions around the Fed's interest - rate cut, copper prices stabilized on Friday. At the industrial level, the decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 80,000 - yuan level [3][53]. - Aluminum: Similar to copper, macro disturbances are decreasing and industrial support is increasing, leading to the stabilization of aluminum prices. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to decline. As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the upcoming double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Factors - The Fed's September interest - rate cut was implemented last week, leading to a reverse market trend as the good news was realized. The US dollar index rebounded from its low, most non - ferrous metals saw a reduction in positions and price drops, and the stock index fluctuated at a high level. With the end of the September interest - rate cut, macro disturbances will gradually decrease, and the influence of the industry will increase. The approaching double festivals and the previous high - price wait - and - see attitude will increase the pre - festival stocking demand as prices fall, providing support for futures prices [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to take profits, resulting in a significant reduction in positions and price drops in Shanghai copper. LME copper also faced strong technical pressure at the annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits. Since Friday, the profit - taking has ended, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with Shanghai copper breaking through the 80,000 - yuan level and LME copper reaching the $10,000 level [3][53]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees - Copper ore processing fees have slightly rebounded from a low level [23]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [26]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices continuously declined from a high level. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, leading to a significant reduction in positions and price drops. Shanghai aluminum also reached an annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits [4][53]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Information on bauxite port inventory and alumina prices is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [41][45]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum rose last week as downstream buyers were more cautious due to high prices in September [4][53]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Information on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [47][49][52]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: After the end of the short - term profit - taking of long positions, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. The decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Attention should be paid to domestic inventory and the 80,000 - yuan technical support [3][53]. - Aluminum: As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for multiple non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on September 19, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79,990 (domestic) and 9,871 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 79,650 (domestic) and 9,943 (LME) with a ratio of 8.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.10, and the profit is - 357.73 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,020 (domestic) and 2,944 (LME) with a ratio of 7.48; March price is 22,070 (domestic) and 2,920 (LME) with a ratio of 5.86. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.55, and the profit is - 3,166.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,780 (domestic) and 2,678 (LME) with a ratio of 7.76; March price is 20,785 (domestic) and 2,673 (LME) with a ratio of 7.79. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.37, and the profit is - 1,631.16 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 120,900 (domestic) and 15,087 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17, and the profit is - 2,181.20 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17,000 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.63; March price is 17,175 (domestic) and 2,011 (LME) with a ratio of 10.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.81, and the profit is - 359.88 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 980, - 910, - 980, - 1000 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 505, 908, 1319, 1731 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 235, - 210, - 175, - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 125, - 125, - 135, - 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 216, 332, 449, 565 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are 65, 75, 65, 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next month, March, April, May and the spot month are - 680, - 450, - 310, 40 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 220, and the theoretical spread is 5583 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 610 and - 370 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 549 and 848 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 260 and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 201 and 308 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 100 and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 189 and 302 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper/Zinc, Copper/Aluminum, Copper/Lead, Aluminum/Zinc, Aluminum/Lead, Lead/Zinc**: The Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.61, 3.83, 4.64, 0.94, 1.21, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.41, 3.70, 4.96, 0.92, 1.34, 0.69 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with mixed signals causing increased market volatility. LME, Comex, SHFE, and BC copper inventories all decreased. Downstream demand was weak due to high prices and macro uncertainties. Overall, copper prices can still be viewed as relatively strong, as a decline may lead to downstream restocking opportunities [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with a 0.88% increase in AO2601, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina's short - term decline space is limited as it approaches the cost line, and aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking. After the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices are further supported, and aluminum alloy is expected to continue to run strongly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel was flat, and沪镍 fell 0.14%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel prices rose rapidly before and now face correction pressure, but overseas macro situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, inventory changes, and weak downstream demand were the main factors affecting copper prices. Despite short - term caution, long - term prospects are relatively positive [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina's cost support, aluminum ingot de - stocking, and scrap aluminum price support are the key factors for the aluminum market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Supply disruptions, price increases, and changes in inventory and demand in different sectors are the main factors influencing nickel prices [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices generally declined, with some inventory changes. For example, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 525 yuan/ton, and the social inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with some minor declines in lead ore prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices declined slightly, and alumina inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased, and nickel inventory increased in some areas [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased slightly, and social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased slightly, and LmeS3 decreased by 2.1% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][29][30][31][32][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][41][42][43][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [47][48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate meeting is approaching. The market is pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar index is weakening. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season in China is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally. However, the upward space still requires positive resonance between fundamentals and macro factors. The realization of rate cuts will affect the subsequent market rhythm. If the rate cut is 25bp as expected, there may be profit - taking; if it exceeds expectations, the market may be stronger[12][13]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving price center, and it is recommended to buy on dips; zinc prices are in a range - bound pattern, and it is advisable to be slightly bullish on dips; the aluminum industry chain is in a complex situation, and different products have different strategies such as temporary observation, short - position holding, and long - position reduction[3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The "central bank super - week" is here. The Fed's rate - cut expectation trading may continue, and non - ferrous metals are fluctuating strongly. China's August economic data shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The US consumer confidence is at a four - month low, further consolidating the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month[12]. - **Investment Suggestions for Different Metals**: - **Copper**: The price center is expected to move up. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options[3][14]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern. Consider being slightly bullish on dips, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23200 and a lower support range of 21600 - 21800[4][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is recommended to observe temporarily, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500; for alumina, short positions can be held cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900; for recycled aluminum alloy, long positions can be reduced, with an upper pressure range of 20800 - 21000 and a lower support range of 20000 - 20300[5][17]. - **Tin**: Observe before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, with an upper pressure range of 280000 - 290000 and a lower support range of 260000 - 265000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options[6][7]. - **Lead**: Long positions can be held, with a short - term support at 16700 - 16800 and an upper pressure at 17400 - 17500. A wide - range option straddle strategy can also be considered[8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, adopt a dip - buying strategy, with an upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan; for stainless steel, be slightly bullish on dips, with a support at 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure at 13000 - 13200[9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80560 with a decline of 0.40%, zinc closed at 22280 with an increase of 0.11%, etc.[19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal contracts have different net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors. For example, the alumina (AO2601) contract has a 1.81% increase, with a strong short position of the main force, and is affected by non - main - force funds[21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80690 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 22180 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%[23][25]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are presented for each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes[27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the Shanghai - copper and London - copper premium/discount[61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metal options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility[77].

20250917申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜： | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.02%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | 可能短期区 | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨0.16%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...