1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. The market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply remains unchanged. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The psychological price ceiling of downstream users for copper is gradually rising. - In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. In the short - term, excessive price increases may inhibit demand. [2] Aluminum - The alumina market shows regional differentiation. The northern market shows signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The supply pressure has not been substantially relieved, and the demand side faces multiple pressures. - The recent rise in the aluminum price is mainly driven by events, with potential risks of short - term range corrections. Attention should be paid to the actual production progress of Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects, the supply recovery progress of Guinean bauxite, and the inventory depletion rhythm. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short, leading to a contraction in industry supply. - The demand side shows a mild recovery, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of cost support and supply - demand balance. [5] Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, the Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level. The supply is generally loose, but the subsequent increase in supply may be limited, and attention should be paid to the inflection point signal of supply changing from loose to tight. - The demand side has no unexpected performance. The low overseas inventory supports the zinc price, and the domestic zinc supply is relatively loose. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound trend. [7] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply is limited this year. The demand side is still weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The market sentiment has improved, and the long - term low - position orders can be held. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [8] Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated and repaired slightly. The macro - market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. - The refined nickel production is still at a high level, with new projects put into production and some projects planning to reduce production. The nickel ore supply in the Philippines is affected by the rainy season, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the overall fundamentals are flat, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. [10] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, with weak market information. The macro - driving force is weakened, and the nickel ore supply in the Philippines is reduced, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. - The ferronickel price is under pressure, and the chromium - iron market is weakly stable. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile. [12] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market was generally strong. The production increased slightly last week, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica. The downstream demand is more optimistic than expected, but the news - side uncertainty and capital impact may put pressure on the price. - The price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 660 yuan/ton to 85,995 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. - The import profit and loss improved by 21.88 yuan/ton to - 500 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50%. - The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 5.2 million tons to 62.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.67%. [2] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%. - The import profit and loss improved by 98.7 yuan/ton to - 2349 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 1729 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10%. [5] Fundamental Data - In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. In September, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 million tons to 5.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82%. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 525.27 yuan/ton to - 4212 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.73%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 282,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 25.5 dollars/ton to 39.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 39.23%. [8] Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. - The SHEF inventory increased by 153 tons to 5919 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%. [8] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. - The futures import profit and loss decreased by 374 yuan/ton to - 1701 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.18%. [10] Supply and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36%. - The SHFE inventory increased by 676 tons to 36,751 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. [10] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.64%. [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.32 million tons to 48.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. [12] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. - The SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in October was 84,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.90%. [14]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including electrolytic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with their spot - futures spreads and changes [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 85335, down 1255; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 5, up 40 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21300, down 140; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2840, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17325, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, up 45. Recycled refined lead average price is 17275, up 100; refined - scrap spread is 50, down 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change of 20, while the average price data is not fully shown [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 281300, down 4100; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 520, up 150. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 269300, down 4100; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.73% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 119950, down 1000; 1 imported nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged. SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119650, down 950; SMM electrowon nickel premium is 100, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122350, down 800; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 2800, up 200 [1]. Silicon - The average price of a certain silicon - related product is 9050, unchanged; its premium is 1490, up 190 [1]. Polysilicon - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 80500, down 400; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 3320, up 1140 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78300, the difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, unchanged. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price data is not fully shown; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change, but the specific price data is not fully shown [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak. In the medium and long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 86,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the domestic social aluminum ingot inventory increases, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises declines. The price may fluctuate between 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and there is a risk of a pullback [3]. Alumina - The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery progress of Guinea bauxite, the actual impact of domestic environmental protection policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Supported by cost and a tight supply - demand balance, the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of concerns about LME zinc squeezing and a warm macro - environment, zinc prices show a short - term strong oscillation, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. It may maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the market sentiment is weak. The fundamentals are generally flat, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are gradually weakening, the supply - side pressure remains, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. With strong demand expectations, the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0 yuan/ton [3]. Alumina - The average price of alumina in Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium is - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 285,400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; SMM 1 tin premium is 500 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 340 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data Copper - In October, the electrolytic copper output was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In October, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7421 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month; in September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 29,000 tons, up 13.07% month - on - month [3]. Alumina - In October, the alumina output was 1.82 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - In October, the refined zinc output was 617,200 tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 22,700 tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - The Chinese refined nickel output was 35,900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 38,164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 126,961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The mid - to long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, rapid price increases may suppress demand. The main focus is on the 84,000 - 85,000 support level [2]. - Aluminum: The macro environment is generally positive, and the fundamental situation is stable, jointly supporting the aluminum price. It is expected that the Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong sideways movement in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum Oxide: It is expected that the short - term alumina price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, but the downward space is gradually narrowing [4]. - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support and supply - demand balance push the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict it. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong sideways movement, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [5]. - Zinc: The zinc price has short - term support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain a sideways movement, and upward breakthrough requires significant improvement in demand and continuous improvement in non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [10]. - Tin: Supported by strong fundamentals, the tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. The short - term price range is 275,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Future performance depends on macro changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [12]. - Nickel: The macro outlook is optimistic, which may boost the price, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless Steel: The macro outlook is average, the peak - season demand boost is insufficient, and the arrival of goods at steel mills may increase next week. The fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are clearly improving. The strong demand in the peak season is gradually being realized, and the industry is continuously destocking. The price has support at the bottom. The short - term disk is expected to move strongly, with the main reference range of 76,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 12.83% to 3,798 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%; imports were 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The import loss was - 2,941 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16% [4]. Aluminum Oxide - **Price and Spread**: The average price of alumina in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,815 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%. The import loss was - 5,427 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%; imports were 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [10]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 281,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.61%. The import loss was - 1,236 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; imports were 17,010 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 13,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 1.23% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 75,400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 1060 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.37%; demand was 116,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.28% [19].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to adjust, with major indices experiencing weak fluctuations and significant selling pressure in growth sectors, while the Hong Kong market shows relative resilience supported by energy stocks [1][2] Market Performance - A-share indices opened lower and declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.08 points, down 0.66%, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.87% to 12883.89 points [2] - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index drop slightly by 0.09% to 25757.60 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.81% to 5875.23 points, indicating a defensive market characteristic [2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The coal sector experienced a surge, with a 2% increase in the index, driven by winter supply expectations and policies enhancing industry concentration [3] - The oil and gas sector also performed well, supported by rising international oil prices and domestic energy security policies [3] - Shenzhen local stocks surged due to merger and acquisition policies, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like integrated circuits and artificial intelligence [3] - Growth sectors faced significant pressure, particularly in technology, with the CPO concept and storage chip sectors experiencing declines of over 4% [3] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a "volume contraction and structural rotation" phase, suggesting a focus on quality stocks within the technology growth sector, particularly in AI and quantum technology [4] - Opportunities in cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted, with coal stocks benefiting from supply policies and rising winter demand [4] - The consumer sector is advised to focus on brands benefiting from improving consumption expectations, while state-owned enterprise reform themes remain active [5] Policy-Driven Opportunities - The "new quality productivity" and reform dividends are emphasized, with attention on Shenzhen local tech firms and semiconductor equipment benefiting from merger and acquisition policies [5] - The overall market faces volume shrinkage, limiting the potential for a broad rebound, but structural opportunities in cyclical resources and policy-driven themes are expected to yield excess returns [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].