Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on agricultural investment opportunities driven by price increases in key products such as beef and grains, policy reforms in the supply side, and recovery in downstream demand [5] - The beef industry is expected to see a price upturn after a period of losses, with a projected industry capacity reduction exceeding 10% [5][12] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to experience a slight decline in supply in 2025, with a focus on high-quality leading enterprises due to supply-side policies [5][45] - Poultry farming is facing supply disruptions, but demand recovery is expected to improve the market [5][87] Livestock Industry - Global beef prices have started to rise again after two years of decline, with May prices reaching $6.62 per kg, a 13% year-on-year increase [12] - China's beef consumption is projected to grow, with a total consumption of 11.52 million tons in 2024, up 3.84% year-on-year [22] - The domestic beef supply is expected to decline significantly due to a drop in cattle inventory, with a forecasted reduction of over 10% [22][24] Dairy Industry - China's raw milk prices have been declining since mid-2021, with the average price at 3.04 yuan per kg as of June 13, 2024, down 7.88% year-on-year [33] - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant capacity reduction, with over 90% of the industry facing losses [33] - A potential recovery in milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply-side capacity continues to decrease [38] Pig Farming - The pig supply is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a projected output of 703 million pigs in 2024, down 3.3% year-on-year [45] - The average price of pigs is forecasted to be around 14.5 yuan per kg for the year, reflecting a decrease in supply pressure [45][54] - The industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with average profits for self-breeding and self-raising operations improving significantly [54][67] Poultry Farming - The yellow-feathered chicken market is stabilizing, with a projected output of 3.34 billion birds in 2024, down 7.18% year-on-year [92] - The white-feathered chicken supply remains ample, with prices stable as the market awaits demand recovery [98] - Long-term demand for white-feathered chicken is expected to rise, supported by improved efficiency and domestic breed replacement [102] Feed and Grain - The total feed volume is expected to increase due to rising pig inventories and improved profitability in livestock farming [107] - Grain prices are projected to recover from recent lows, influenced by external factors such as weather and international relations [117] - The report emphasizes the importance of grain security and the potential impact of trade relations on domestic agricultural costs [117]

Group 1 - The conference titled "Futures Empowering the Development of Hainan Free Trade Port Enterprises, Supporting High-Quality Advancement of the Real Economy" was successfully held in Haikou, gathering nearly 300 guests and clients to discuss innovative paths for the futures market to serve the construction of the free trade port [1] - The conference highlighted the opportunities and challenges in the context of Hainan's free trade port operations, with a significant increase in futures company clients and trading volume in the region [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) are actively developing futures products and services tailored to Hainan's unique industries, including agriculture and energy [5][8] Group 2 - DCE has established a product system comprising 22 futures and 17 options, with a focus on supporting farmers and enterprises through risk management frameworks [5] - ZCE has created a multi-dimensional service system to support various sectors, including agriculture and energy, and has been conducting training and development projects for state-owned and private enterprises [5][6] - The integration of weather data with financial products is being explored to provide risk management tools for industries affected by climate conditions, particularly in agriculture [13] Group 3 - Jin Yuan Futures is committed to enhancing services for local enterprises in Hainan, focusing on risk management and financial education to support high-quality development [10][12] - The company aims to leverage policy advantages and futures tools to help local businesses manage price volatility and capitalize on new opportunities presented by the free trade port [8][12] - The conference served as a platform to strengthen collaboration between financial institutions and real enterprises, enhancing the willingness and capability to utilize futures tools for risk management [22]

Major Events - Yunzhisheng (09678) is set to conduct an IPO from June 20 to June 25, with an expected listing date of June 30 [1] - Teda Pharmaceutical (03880) will also hold an IPO from June 20 to June 25, anticipating a listing on June 30 [1] - Baize Medical (02609) has set its share price at HKD 4.22, with a public offering that received 25.92 times subscription [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) has a public offering that was oversubscribed by 747.92 times [1] - Yaojie Ankang-B (02617) saw its Hong Kong public offering oversubscribed by 3419.87 times, with an expected listing on June 23 [1] - Geely Automobile (00175) plans to establish a joint venture to enhance its brand influence and market coverage in Brazil [1] - China Gas (00384) raised CNY 216 million for Zhongran Hongming Electric Power Sales, diluting its stake to 77% [1] - Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for its insomnia drug, Kewike® [1] - Weichai Power (02338) intends to spin off Weichai Lovol and list it on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Bank of China (03988) plans to increase its capital in Bank of China Europe by up to EUR 300 million using its own funds [1] - Yongtai Real Estate (00369) intends to sell its entire stake in Topworth Enterprises for GBP 4.3 million [1] - Yimai Sunshine (02522) plans to invest CNY 54 million to acquire a 70% stake in Gaomai Health [1] Financial Data - Cathay Pacific (00293) reported a 28.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume for the first five months [1] - China Tianrui Group Cement (01252) announced a profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 279 million for the 2024 fiscal year, marking a return to profitability [1] - Modern Dairy (01117) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately CNY 800 million to CNY 1 billion for the first half of the year [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a weekly increase of 1.62% in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is undergoing weight reduction, with a current average weight of 128.82 kg per pig, and a slight increase in frozen product inventory rate. Despite a downward trend in pig prices, leading companies are expected to achieve good profitability in the first half of the year [3][19][20]. - The poultry farming sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market, with a notable decrease in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to overseas avian influenza. However, there is potential for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][31]. - The livestock sector is experiencing a steady state in beef prices, with a slight decrease in milk prices. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices in the second half of 2025 as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with fluctuations in grain prices due to tariff policies and global weather disruptions. The report suggests that if there is a significant reduction in grain production, the planting industry may see improved conditions [6][40]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations in various fish prices. The report notes that feed prices have stabilized, which may benefit the overall profitability of the sectors [58][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 2725.63 points, with a weekly increase of 1.62%, outperforming major indices [2][13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average pig price is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.21%. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the industry [19][20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.27 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The sector is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery as demand improves [29][31]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle is 26.71 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2,334.29 yuan/ton, showing a weekly increase. The report suggests that significant reductions in grain production could improve the planting industry's conditions [39][40]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight fluctuations in fish prices. The report notes that stable feed prices may benefit overall profitability [58][63].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [80]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [22]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stability despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from overseas avian influenza affecting supply [35]. - The dairy industry is seeing a recovery in milk prices due to reduced supply, while beef prices are expected to rise as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [39]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs sold was 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.05 CNY/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [20][21]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year, despite anticipated price pressures in the second half [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.32 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 0.68% week-on-week, while overall prices remain stable [32][35]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust, potentially boosting poultry product consumption [35]. 2.3 Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk has stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery as supply decreases [39]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies, with corn prices at 2294.29 CNY/ton and soybeans at 3925.26 CNY/ton [46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.37 CNY/kg and poultry feed at 3.40 CNY/kg [65]. - Aquaculture prices remain steady, with notable increases in shrimp prices [65].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

牧业即将迎来右侧时刻：一边涨价一边加速去产能 20250604 摘要 环保政策和非洲猪瘟曾系统性影响养殖业周期，2016 年起环保政策清 理散户，2018 年非洲猪瘟导致蛋白质价格上涨，奶牛养殖周期长达三 年，影响市场供应持久。 当前行业完全成本约 3.5 元/公斤，合同内原奶价格约 3-3.1 元/公斤， 社会散奶价格更低，行业整体亏损，散奶价格仅能维持泌乳牛现金成本， 后备牛亏损严重，中小散户养不起后备牛，行业运行不健康。 奶价已接近泌乳牛现金成本线，短期内泌乳牛淘汰有限，供应过剩难缓 解，但后备牛亏损导致配种意愿低，预计两年后市场供应将减少，今年 年底或明年初奶价或开始上涨。 奶业周期通常为八年，目前处于新周期临界点，2023 年中行业亏损并 开始去产能，预计 2025 年底将出现供应拐点，提前淘汰和需求旺季可 能加速拐点到来。 行业产能去化已持续两年多，预计未来奶价上涨将持续至少两年，6-8 月淘汰旺季可能加速淘汰速度，当前时间点临近奶价趋势性上涨。 Q&A 当前畜牧业周期的趋势是什么？为什么奶价可能会在产能去化的同时上涨？ 目前畜牧业正处于一个关键时刻，我们预计未来将出现产能去化与奶价上涨并 存的情 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a limited expected change in performance compared to the market over the next 3-6 months [72]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a slight increase of 0.05% during the week [12][13]. - The report highlights the ongoing fluctuations in pig prices, with a current average price of 14.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.42% [19][30]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price adjustments due to seasonal demand and external factors like avian influenza, with white feather chicken prices currently at 7.40 yuan/kg [30][35]. - The dairy and beef sectors are expected to see a recovery in prices as supply constraints continue, with a potential upward trend in raw milk prices anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4][36]. - The planting sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market cycle, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2620.55 points, with a weekly increase of 0.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [12][13]. - The top-performing sectors included beauty care and non-bank financials, while the agricultural sector ranked 20th [12][13]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.71 kg, with a stable trend compared to previous weeks [19]. - The report indicates a potential downward pressure on pig prices due to increased supply and inventory adjustments [20]. - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, which are positioned for better profitability amid market fluctuations [20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices have seen a slight decrease, but there is an expectation of recovery as consumer demand improves [30][35]. - The report notes a significant reduction in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to external factors, which may impact future production [35]. 2.3 Livestock - The beef market is showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for calves and live cattle, indicating a potential new cycle in the beef sector [36]. - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize as supply constraints are addressed, with raw milk prices projected to recover in the latter half of 2025 [4][36]. 2.4 Planting Industry Chain - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies on commodity prices, with fluctuations observed in major agricultural products [44]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [5][44]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have remained stable, with no significant changes reported in the prices of various fish species [58]. - The report indicates that aquaculture prices are holding steady, suggesting a stable market environment for aquatic products [58].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "work-for-relief" model in the ecological restoration projects in Ulanqab City is effectively enhancing both ecological construction and the income of local herders, demonstrating a successful synergy between environmental and economic benefits [1][2][3] Group 1: Ecological Restoration and Economic Benefits - The "work-for-relief" model allows herders to participate in ecological projects while earning income, with one herder reporting a monthly income of 2400 yuan from tree planting activities [1] - The Ulanqab City plans to implement 3.2451 million acres of ecological construction under the "Three North" project by 2025, with a total investment of 1.46 billion yuan, allocating at least 10% of the project funds for the "work-for-relief" initiative [2] - As of April, the city has employed 8415 workers daily, distributing a total of 1.263 million yuan in labor fees, showcasing the scale of employment generated through these projects [2] Group 2: Training and Innovative Models - Ulanqab City is actively conducting training and learning activities for the "work-for-relief" model to enhance the capabilities and awareness of involved personnel, thereby expanding participation opportunities for more herders [3] - The city is exploring innovative models such as "village collective + herders" and "cooperatives + herders" to encourage local participation in ecological construction, which has increased the enthusiasm of herders to engage in environmental efforts [3] - The establishment of demonstration sites in Siziwang Banner and Huade County aims to leverage the organizational role of village collectives and cooperatives, further promoting local involvement in ecological restoration [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the improvement of tax credit repair mechanisms in China, highlighting the importance of allowing businesses to restore their tax credit ratings through corrective actions and compliance with tax regulations [2][4]. Group 1: Tax Credit Repair Mechanism - The tax credit repair management system in China has been increasingly refined, allowing businesses to restore their tax credit ratings through commitments and corrective actions [2]. - In 2024, tax authorities helped 13 million taxpayers achieve tax credit repair or upgrades through improved interaction services and timely reminders [2]. - The repair mechanism reflects a governance philosophy that balances punishment and education, encouraging businesses to operate legally and rebuild their credit image [2]. Group 2: Case Studies and Implementation - A "small giant" enterprise in Zhuhai experienced a downgrade in tax credit rating due to a reporting error, which was resolved through a repair application after paying the owed taxes and penalties [1]. - A livestock company in Longjing faced restrictions due to a D-level credit rating but successfully restored it to C-level through a rapid response mechanism from the local tax authority [3]. - Local tax departments are enhancing digital capabilities to assist businesses in reducing credit loss, with initiatives like AI-driven services and smart regulatory measures [4]. Group 3: Future Developments - Tax authorities plan to further improve the tax credit repair mechanism, allowing businesses that rectify their tax obligations within three days to receive full credit restoration [4]. - Businesses that fulfill legal obligations to resolve abnormal statuses will automatically have their credit ratings reassessed without needing to apply for repair [4].