2025年7月7日 星期一 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿将陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应有望收缩,盘面 迎来反弹,原料跟涨,关注政策的具体文件落地以及需求跟进情况。 黄金 油粗 美豆种植面积预估仅下调有限,美中西部天气持续改善提振大豆产量前景, 南美大豆丰产持续出口。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高 位,油厂提货量高位,豆粕库存快速攀升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 CPEC+加大增产力度施压油价,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供需预期转 弱,短期跟随成本波动;MEC供需趋弱,盘面承压。 生猪 市场对美联储降息预期下降,最早降息时间可能推至10月,关注本周美联储 会议纪要:大而美法案通过. 加之7月9日贸易关税暂停最后期限临近,特朗 普关税信函增加市场不确定性,避险情绪回升。预计黄金维持高位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环增,供应压力回升,日均出库量维持在6 万方以上,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货首次交割对原木价格的影响。 橡胶 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢 ...

踏入牧场，迎面而来的是井然有序的现代化养殖场景。在小暑的高温下，牛儿们悠然自得地躺在专 属的卧床之上，头顶的风扇正匀速转动，送来阵阵清凉微风，驱散暑气。这些卧床上铺垫沙子，柔软又 透气，不仅为牛只提供了舒适的休息空间，还有效降低因环境温度过高导致的热应激反应，帮助奶牛保 持舒适体感。 牧场里，营养师们精心调配的营养餐正陆续投喂。他们根据小暑时节奶牛的生理特点与营养需求， 科学搭配富含蛋白质、维生素和矿物质的饲料，确保牛群在高温天气下既能保持健康体魄，又能摄入充 足营养。 小暑，是二十四节气中的第十一个节气。此时，走进位于内蒙古巴彦淖尔市磴口县的现代牧业(磴 口)有限公司，在中温带大陆性季风气候的独特馈赠下，一幅科学养牛与自然和谐共生的画卷徐徐展 开。 现代牧业(磴口)有限公司位于磴口县隆盛合镇公地村，是集饲草种植、奶牛养殖及先进种养殖技术 推广应用为一体的大型现代化、规模化、集约化、标准化养殖企业。 牧场采用国际普遍的散栏饲养模式，最大限度保障奶牛福利。采购优质饲料并种植优质玉米青贮， 使用先进的日粮配方软件，由奶牛营养专家制作奶牛日粮，满足奶牛均衡全价营养需要，保证奶牛高 产、优质、健康。 为了让奶牛始终保 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Ecological Civilization Guiyang International Forum focused on "deepening local friendly cooperation and promoting green development for mutual benefit" [1] - Seven pairs of provincial and municipal friendly city agreements were signed during the forum, including agreements between Guizhou Province and Liberia's Monrovia City, as well as intentions with Mozambique's Gaza Province and Papua New Guinea's Milne Bay Province [1] - Guizhou Province aims to transform its ecological advantages into development momentum, showcasing its green development practices to the world through international friendly cities [1] Group 2 - The Governor of Milne Bay Province, Gordon Wesley, presented a specific cooperation list that includes trade of specialty agricultural products, sustainable fisheries management, and eco-cultural tourism [2] - The forum launched the "Study in Guizhou" project to attract international youth from friendly cities to study in Guizhou, fostering future cooperation [2] - The "Friendly City Shopping and Travel" cross-border e-commerce project was announced to facilitate the flow of Guizhou's ecological agricultural products and handicrafts to the world, while also allowing quality goods from friendly cities to enter the Chinese market [2]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（6.30-7.6） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 36.9 元/公斤（上周 37.3 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 15.18 元/公斤（上周 14.93 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1623 元/头（上周 1623 元/ 头）。供应端，月初集团出栏压力较轻，散户维持压栏惜售，供给整体偏紧；需求端，周内需求下降，伴 随温度升高抑制需求增量。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 125.13KG（上周 125.26KG），出 栏均重环比下降 0.1%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强运行。本周生猪期货 LH2509 合约最高价为 14420 元/吨，最低价为 13820 元/吨，收盘价为 14305 元/吨（上周同期 14005 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2509 合约基差为 875 元/ 吨（上周同期 925 元/吨）。 （2）下周市场展望（7.7-7.13） 生猪现货价格弱势震荡。淡季阶段集团调节出栏对价格影响较大，月底月初集团出栏压力小，短期散 户端口存在惜售情绪，二次育肥群体积极补栏，叠加政策收储预期，现货价格加 ...

数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q2 猪企利润或仍同比高增， 供给收缩宏观催化共振积极配置—行 业周报》-2025.6.29 《消费逐步进入淡季，短期鸡价或有 压力—行业点评报告》-2025.6.23 《供给收缩已至支撑猪价上行，618 宠物食品龙头表现亮眼—行业周报》 -2025.6.22 10 农林牧渔 2025 年 07 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 供给收缩与宏观催化共振，2025Q3 猪价存在强支撑 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（分析师） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790525070003 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：供给收缩与宏观催化共振，2025Q3 猪价存在强支撑 供给收 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.30-2025.07.4）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2729.26 点(周环比+2.55%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3982.20 点（周环比+1.54%），深证综指收于 2075.71 点（周环比+1.13%），上证综指收于 3472.32 点（周环比+1.40%），科 创板收于 984.80 点（周环比-0.35%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 截至 7 月 4 日，全国商品猪价格为 15.35 元/公斤，周环比+4.28%；15KG 仔猪价格为 32.20 元/公斤，周环比+0.56%； 本周生猪出栏均重为 128.64 公斤/头，行业整体均重有所反复，本周行业冻品库容率环比+0.10%至 16.67%，主要系需 求偏弱导致屠宰场被动入库，在天气等因素的影响下，生猪价格有所反弹。集团场第一阶段降重放缓，部分散养户开 始惜售，整体散户出栏均重出现回升；此外，环保管理持续推进，各个省份陆续加强环保管理。当下猪价表现下成本 领先的头部养殖企业生猪盈利超 200 元/头，预计头部企业在上半年有望实现较好盈利，而在供给压力持续后移的背 景下，下半年猪 ...

2025年上半年，我国生猪市场在供需博弈中呈现"现货曲折走弱、期货宽幅震荡"的格局。相关数据显 示，截至6月末，全国产区生猪均价14.86元/公斤，下跌0.91元/公斤，销区生猪均价15.35元/公斤，下跌 0.94元/公斤。"今年上半年，生猪价格整体呈现震荡运行态势，虽然价格重心呈现下移态势，但下跌幅 度明显低于市场前期评估结果。"银河期货农产品研究员陈界正说。受访人士认为，下半年生猪市场将 呈现供需双增的情况，在需求托举下，猪价或出现阶段性反弹。短期需关注三季度季节性需求回升与压 栏情绪对价格的拉动，中长期猪价表现则取决于产能去化的持续性。(期货日报) ...

金新农（002548）公告，2025年6月生猪销量11.22万头，其中商品猪5.23万头、仔猪5.78万头、种猪0.21 万头，生猪销售收入1.22亿元，商品猪销售均价14.76元/公斤。2025年1-6月，公司生猪销量合计63.23万 头，同比增长5.57%；生猪销售收入合计7.63亿元，同比下降1.23%。 ...

Core Insights - The company Tianbang Food (002124) reported sales of 506,300 commodity pigs in June 2025, including 175,400 piglets, generating a revenue of 675 million yuan with an average selling price of 15.88 yuan per kilogram, showing a month-on-month change of 1.08%, -4.01%, and -2.52% respectively [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company sold 2.9582 million commodity pigs, including 950,300 piglets, with a total revenue of 4.143 billion yuan and an average selling price of 16.19 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1.99%, 3.94%, and -1.16% respectively [1] Sales Performance - In June 2025, the sales volume of commodity pigs was 506,300 heads, with piglet sales accounting for 175,400 heads [1] - The revenue for June 2025 was 675 million yuan, with an average price of 15.88 yuan per kilogram [1] - The sales volume for the first half of 2025 reached 2.9582 million heads, with piglet sales at 950,300 heads [1] Revenue Analysis - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.143 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 16.19 yuan per kilogram [1] - The year-on-year revenue change for the first half of 2025 was 3.94% [1] - The month-on-month revenue change for June 2025 showed a decrease of 4.01% compared to the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights various paths to wealth in rural revitalization, including individual efforts, collective industrial upgrades, and strong policy support, creating a vibrant picture of rural development and farmer prosperity [1] Group 2 - In Liaoning Province, farmer Yan Dalei has successfully cultivated 22,000 acres of milk thistle, achieving two harvests per year by planting soybeans after the thistle, significantly increasing land utilization [2] - The annual production of milk thistle extract in Panjin, Liaoning exceeds 1,300 tons, accounting for over 90% of global production, with products exported worldwide [2] Group 3 - The Northeast New Wholesale Market in Beijing is investing in a national agricultural product supply chain center in Panjin, with a total investment of 1.1 billion yuan and a planned area of 250,000 square meters, focusing on a modern fruit trading center [3] - The project aims to enhance the connection between enterprises and farmers, promoting mutual development [3] Group 4 - Zhang Liang, a flower farmer in Yunnan, established a cooperative that has grown to 263 members, cultivating over 2,000 acres of roses, emphasizing high-quality and standardized production [4] - The cooperative has implemented an investment model that allows members to earn income through land leasing, local employment, and year-end dividends, with projected sales revenue of nearly 80 million yuan in 2024 [4] Group 5 - In Ningxia, the beef cattle industry is a pillar of the local economy, with over 6,800 households engaged in cattle farming, supported by policies like "calf subsidies" [5] - By the end of 2025, the expected cattle population in Jingyuan County will reach 120,000, with livestock output value projected to reach 390 million yuan, driving the total industry chain value over 1 billion yuan [5] Group 6 - In Hebei, the county has developed over 4,600 acres of Chinese waxberry through a "company + base + large growers + farmers" model, introducing deep processing products like waxberry tea and oil [7]