Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 has declined compared to the previous month and the past five-year average, indicating a weakening manufacturing sector under external pressures, particularly from trade tensions with the US [1][3][4] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is reported at 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and 1.3 percentage points lower than the five-year average, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to external trade pressures [2][3] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, which is 2.4 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating a decline in production levels [4] - The new export orders index is at 44.7%, significantly lower than the five-year average by 4.8 percentage points, primarily due to reduced exports to the US [4][5] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing sectors, only 5 have PMIs above the threshold, with 4 sectors showing a month-on-month increase, including non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, which rose by 9.1 percentage points [5] - The gap between PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises is narrowing, with large enterprises experiencing a more significant decline [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is at 50.4%, which is 3.6 percentage points lower than the five-year average, indicating weaker domestic demand [6] - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, and the construction sector PMI is at 51.9%, both reflecting a decline compared to historical averages [6] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau meeting in April outlined measures to stabilize the economy, including accelerating existing policy implementation, introducing new policies, and preparing contingency plans [7] - Specific actions include expediting the issuance of local government bonds and establishing new financial tools to support infrastructure and industrial investments [7] Market Outlook - Economic fundamentals are expected to support the bond market, with anticipated monetary easing leading to a potential decline in interest rates for medium and long-term bonds [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - April official manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[3] - New export orders fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, reflecting significant external demand weakness[4] - Industrial raw material purchase prices dropped to 47.0%, a decline of 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing price pressures[21] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - April construction PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 51.9%, with new orders showing mixed trends[22] - Special bond issuance progress reached approximately 27.1% by April 30, outperforming the 18.0% of the same period in 2024, indicating strong infrastructure momentum[22] - Service sector PMI remained relatively stable at 50.1%, with new orders declining by 1.2 percentage points to 45.9%[32] Group 3: Tariff Disturbance Phases - The first phase (May-June) is characterized by a slight recovery in exports, projected at +0.9% year-on-year, despite increasing downward pressure[6] - The second phase (July-August) may see reduced production schedules and workforce optimization among export firms if tariff conditions do not improve[6] - The current period is critical for policy decisions, with expectations for more flexible responses to economic pressures from both China and the U.S.[6] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and a sharper-than-expected recession in the U.S. economy[7]

报 告 正 文 4 月制造业 PMI 回落至线下，供需两端均有走弱。服务业和建筑业商务活动指数均线上回落。 PMI 表现如何？ 4 月 全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.0% ，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点。各分项均较上月下降，其中 需求相对供给继续增强，内需相对外需大幅增强，大中小企业均落至线下运行，原材料价格和产成品价格双双 回落。 为何本月制造业 PMI 大幅下降？ 主要原因有三： 一是 前期"抢出口"影响下，制造业较快增长，导致 前期基数较高； 二是 外部环境急剧变化， 4 月 2 日美国对全球贸易伙伴强加关税压制抢出口； 三是 季节转 淡，存在一定的季节性影响。当前主要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间， 3 月份美国制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ， 4 月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业 PMI 初值均低于临界点。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是外部环境变化影响下，行业表现分化。 高技术制造业和部分内销为主的行业表 现相对稳定， 4 月高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5% ，明显高于制造业总体水平；农副食品、酒饮料茶、医药等行 业的生产和新订单指数均位于 53.0% 及以上；服务业和建筑业商务活动预期指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In April, due to the US tariff policy, business production and operation activities slowed down significantly. Although the three major indices (manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index) slowed down, China's economy generally remained in an expansionary phase [3]. - On the demand side, external demand slowed down rapidly in the short term, while domestic demand rebounded. Policy support increased, but overall demand was still slowing. In production, industrial production decreased due to the slowdown in domestic and foreign demand, but it was expected to continue growing at a relatively high speed with the support of domestic demand policies. In terms of prices, domestic - demand - type commodity prices were weak, and external - demand - type commodity prices fluctuated [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Overall Economic Situation - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49% (expected 49.8%, previous value 50.5%), the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% (expected 50.6%, previous value 50.8%), and the composite PMI was 50.2% (previous value 51.4%). All three indices decreased compared to the previous month, but the economy remained in an expansionary range [1][3][4]. - In domestic investment, real - estate sales improved, but investment recovery was slow; infrastructure investment accelerated due to the rapid issuance of special bonds; manufacturing investment maintained high - speed growth, but short - term restocking motivation weakened [3]. - Consumption growth accelerated significantly, strongly driving the economy. Exports decreased significantly due to tariff impacts on overseas demand, and future export growth was expected to slow further [3]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to the contraction range and was lower than market expectations. The new order index was 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in market demand. The production index was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, showing a slight slowdown in production [3]. - The new export order index and import index were 44.7% and 43.4% respectively, down 4.3% and 4.1% from the previous month, indicating a significant decline in external demand due to tariffs and a decrease in import demand due to external shocks [3]. - The price index continued to decline. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 47% and 44.8% respectively, down 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the US tariff policy and global economic uncertainties [3][4]. - Both the finished - product inventory index and the raw - material inventory index decreased. The finished - product inventory index dropped 0.7 percentage points to 47.3%, and the raw - material inventory index decreased 0.2 percentage points to 47% [4]. Non - manufacturing Sector - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry business activity index was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points [4]. - In the service industry, sectors such as air transportation, telecommunications, and IT services were in a high - prosperity range, while sectors like water transportation and capital market services were below the critical point. In the construction industry, the civil engineering construction business activity index was 60.9%, up 6.4 percentage points [4]. - The service industry business activity expectation index was 56.4%, and the construction industry business activity expectation index was 53.8%, indicating that most enterprises in these two industries were confident about market development [4]. Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that overall business production and operation activities remained in an expansionary phase, although at a slower pace [4].

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting a mixed economic outlook for China [1][10]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][6]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to two main factors: significant changes in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a drop following the peak in March [5][11]. - High-tech manufacturing continues to show resilience, with a PMI of 51.5%, indicating ongoing expansion despite a slight decline [7]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from March, but still within the expansion range [1][10]. - The service sector's performance is supported by seasonal factors such as the Qingming holiday, which boosted tourism and related services [10]. - Certain high-growth industries within the service sector, such as telecommunications and IT services, maintain strong activity levels, with indices above 55.0% [10]. Economic Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that the likelihood of policy rate cuts increases after two consecutive months of manufacturing PMI in contraction, with expectations for timely adjustments in the second quarter [3][12]. - The construction sector's PMI is at 51.9%, reflecting a decline due to reduced real estate investment, but infrastructure-related activities show promise with a business activity index of 60.9% [10]. - The government is expected to implement more aggressive macroeconomic policies to stimulate demand and support infrastructure investment, as indicated by recent political meetings [10].

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 从企业规模看，大、中、小型企业PMI分别为49.2%、48.8%和48.7%，比上月下降2.0、1.1和0.9个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数、新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临 界点。 生产指数为49.8%，比上月下降2.8个百分点，表明制造业企业生产略有放缓。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月下降2.6个百分点，表明制造业市场需求有所回落。 原材料库存指数为47.0%，比上月下降0.2个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量较上月下降。 从业人员指数为47.9%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度有所回落。 | | | | | | | | | 单位：% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 新出口 | 进口 | 采购量 | 主要原材 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - The official manufacturing PMI for February 2025 is recorded at 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return above the growth threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for the first two months of 2025 is 49.7%, lower than the average of 50.2% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a weaker manufacturing sentiment compared to seasonal norms[1] - The production index and new orders index for February are 52.5% and 51.1%, respectively, indicating that production is expanding faster than demand[2] Economic Trends and Risks - The new export orders index stands at 48.6%, reflecting a slight recovery but still indicating potential risks in external demand due to uncertainties in trade policies[2] - There is a notable divergence in sentiment among manufacturing enterprises, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 52.5%, while medium and small enterprises are at 49.2% and 46.3%, respectively, highlighting a reliance on large firms for recovery[2] - The manufacturing price indices indicate a potential narrowing of PPI declines, with the output price index at 48.5% and the main raw material purchase price index at 50.8%[2] Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI average for the first two months of 2025 is 50.6%, down from 51.3% in the last quarter of 2024, suggesting a slower economic recovery trajectory[6] - The construction PMI for February is 52.7%, showing a strong recovery post-holiday, while the service sector PMI is at 50.0%, indicating a decline[5] - The overall economic sentiment remains cautious, with the need for further policy support for small and medium enterprises highlighted as crucial for sustained recovery[2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for February returned above the threshold, indicating a relatively good state of manufacturing prosperity, with the average PMI for January and February overall better than in 2024 [1][3] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for February is 50.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, and 0.1 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [2][3] - The average PMI for January and February is 49.65%, which is higher than the 49.15% in the same period of 2024, reflecting a better recent manufacturing climate [3] Economic Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand sides of the economy are performing well in the short term, with a potential short-term rebound in PPI readings [4] - The production index for February is 52.5%, up 2.7 percentage points from last month, and the average operating rate for six major industrial sectors is 71.0%, which is 2.0 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4] Sector Performance - Among 15 major manufacturing industries, 7 have PMIs above the threshold, with the equipment manufacturing sector performing relatively well, such as electrical machinery at 57.1% and automotive manufacturing at 53.1% [5] - Conversely, some low-value-added industries are underperforming, such as non-metallic mineral products at 43.4% and petroleum processing at 42.6% [5] Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI for February is 50.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, driven mainly by seasonal recovery in the construction industry [6] - The service sector PMI decreased to 50.0%, while the construction PMI increased to 52.7%, indicating a seasonal rebound in construction activities post-Spring Festival [6] Future Economic Outlook - The overall economic performance is benefiting from previous consumption-boosting policies, tariff expectations, and the concentrated issuance of special bonds in the fourth quarter [7] - Future attention should be paid to the details of macro policies from the Two Sessions, the effects of consumption promotion on large items, and the impact of tariffs on exports [7]