| | 2025年12月10日 | | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年12月10日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | SP2601 | 5360 | -0. 48% | -1.80% | 现货价格 | 针叶浆银星 | 5500 | -0. 90% | -0. 90% | | (元/吨) | SP2512 | 4716 | 0. 26% | 0. 04% | (元/吨) | 针叶浆俄针 | 5250 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | SP2605 | 5436 | -0.51% | -1.27% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4500 | 0.00% | 0. 00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 680 | 680 | 0. 00% | 进口成本 | 智利银星 | 5559 | 5559 | 0. 00% | | (美元/吨) | 日芭ぎ鱼 | 540 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Canadian pulp mills have reduced production, leading to positive factors on the pulp supply side. There is no new warehouse receipt registration, resulting in a tight supply of delivery resources for near - month contracts. However, new warehouse receipt registration occurs when the price on the market rises to 5,500 yuan/ton, limiting further upward potential [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 9, 2025, SP2601 was 5386 with a daily decline of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 1.09%; SP2512 was 4704 with a daily increase of 0.47% and a weekly increase of 0.60%; SP2605 was 5464 with a daily increase of 0.52% and a weekly increase of 1.83% [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 9, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 with a daily and weekly increase of 0.90%; Russian coniferous pulp was 5250 with no daily or weekly change; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes (dollars/ton)**: In December 2025, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680 with no monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 with a monthly increase of 1.89%; Chilean Venus was 590 with no monthly change [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 with no monthly change; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 with a monthly increase of 1.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 69.1, unchanged from September; broad - leaf pulp imports were 131.8, a 2.80% decrease from September [6] - **Shipments to China (1000 tons)**: In October 2025, the shipments were 173, a 7.49% decrease from the previous period [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, broad - leaf pulp production was 23.9; chemimechanical pulp production was 23.8 [6] - **Inventory** - **Pulp Port Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, it was 210.7 [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, it was 21.0 [6] - **Demand** - **Finished Paper Production (10,000 tons)**: As of December 4, 2025, double - offset paper production was 20.70; coated paper production was 8.60; tissue paper production was 28.52; white cardboard production was 37.70 [6] 3.3 Market Situation - **Supply - side**: Recently, the supply of wood chips in the international market has been continuously tight, and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase for bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) orders received in December in Asia [6] - **Demand - side**: Recently, water - pulp paper manufacturers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of price increases for white cardboard has been good, and double - offset paper manufacturers have issued price - increase letters again, with the implementation situation to be monitored [6] - **Inventory - side**: As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.1 tons, a decrease of 7.1 tons from the previous period, a 3.3% decline. Inventory has continued to show a slight downward trend, and the inventory of sample ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks [6]

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 10 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of pulp has positive factors as Canadian pulp mills have reduced production, and there is no new warehouse receipt registration, so the delivery resources for near - month contracts are tight. However, new warehouse receipt registration appears when the price rises to 5,500 yuan/ton on the market, limiting further upward space [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On December 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5,392 yuan/ton, down 1.06% day - on - day and up 3.89% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 1.84% day - on - day and down 0.47% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 0.98% day - on - day and up 3.42% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On December 6, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Fish was 4,500 yuan/ton, unchanged both day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Japanese West Fish was 540 US dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,559 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Japanese Fish was 4,425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4,830 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports**: In October 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 69.1 tons, unchanged month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 131.8 tons, down 2.80% month - on - month [6] - **Shipments**: The pulp shipments to China in October 2025 were 173 thousand tons, down 7.49% month - on - month [6] - **Domestic Production**: The production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuates over different weeks in 2025 [6] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.7 tons, showing a decreasing trend compared with previous periods [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of December 4, 2025, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.0 tons, also showing a certain change trend compared with previous periods [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuates over different weeks in 2025 [6] - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis**: Recently, the international wood chip supply has been tight and prices have risen rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - US - dollar/ton price increase for bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) in Asia in December. On the demand side, wood - pulp paper has issued price increase letters recently, with only white cardboard having good implementation. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory in China's mainstream pulp ports decreased by 7.1 tons compared with the previous period, a 3.3% decline, and has continued to decline slightly for two consecutive weeks [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently in a state of low - level wide - range oscillatory adjustment. Although short - term overseas mill shutdowns boost the futures price and some cultural paper mills' price increase letters in December boost market confidence, the fundamentals have not formed a trend - driving force yet [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,402 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,496 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.74%. The intended trading price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,820 - 6,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with the Shandong Yinxing offer at 5,500 - 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - Recently, the international wood chip supply has been tight. APRIL and Bracell under the Golden Eagle Group announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the price of bleached hardwood pulp in Asia in December. In October, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 7.1%, and hardwood pulp by 1.9%, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In October 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 10.2% month - on - month and 6.5% year - on - year. As of November 27, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.51% month - on - month. Downstream base paper prices have made narrow adjustments, and the processing cost pressure remains high [8] 3.2. Industry News - On December 3, six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand and Further Promoting Consumption". The plan aims to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, form 3 trillion - level consumption sectors and 100 - billion - level consumption hotspots, and build high - quality consumer goods. By 2030, a high - quality development pattern of positive interaction between supply and consumption is expected to be basically formed [9] 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The paper pulp futures are expected to be strong in the short - term, but the fluctuations may be large due to the positive factors on the supply side and the tight delivery resources for near - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, SP2601 was 5458 with a daily increase of 2.44% and a weekly increase of 4.80%; SP2512 was 4772 with a daily increase of 1.23% and a weekly increase of 1.02%; SP2605 was 5506 with a daily increase of 2.61% and a weekly increase of 4.68% [6] - **Spot Prices (yuan/ton)**: On December 3, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5450 (unchanged daily, up 0.93% weekly), Russian Needle was 5250 (unchanged daily and weekly), and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 (up 2.27% daily and weekly) [6] - **Outer - Disk Quotes (dollars/ton)**: In December 2025, the price of Chilean Silver Star was 680 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 540 (up 1.89% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 590 (unchanged monthly) [6] - **Import Costs (yuan/ton)**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559 (unchanged monthly), Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 (up 1.87% monthly), and Chilean Venus was 4830 (unchanged monthly) [6] Fundamental Data - **Import Volume (10,000 tons)**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 (unchanged from September), and that of broad - leaf pulp was 131.8 (down 2.80% from September) [6] - **Domestic Production (10,000 tons)**: For broad - leaf pulp in November 2025, the production was 25.2 on November 27; for chemimechanical pulp, it was 23.7 on November 27 [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the paper pulp port inventory was 217.2 (down 0.1 from the previous period, a 0.05% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 21.1 [6] - **Demand (10,000 tons)**: In November 2025, the production of double - offset paper was 20.80 on November 27, copper - plate paper was 8.50, tissue paper was 28.49, and white cardboard was 38.40 [6] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On December 3, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 478 with a quantile level of 0.949, and the Silver Star basis was 678 with a quantile level of 0.896 [6] - **Import Profit**: On December 3, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 109 with a quantile level of 0.45, and that of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 75 with a quantile level of 0.726 [6] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco Company's November quotes were 550 dollars/ton for broad - leaf pulp Star and 620 dollars/ton for natural pulp Venus. Canadian pulp mills have reduced production [6] - **Demand**: Recently, wood - pulp paper producers have issued price - increase letters. Only the implementation of white cardboard price increases is good, and double - offset paper has issued price - increase letters again [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the inventory in China's main paper pulp ports was 217.2 tons, showing a slight de - stocking trend [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to remain oscillating weakly in the short term. The imported pulp market is expected to continue to be differentiated. Coniferous pulp is under pressure due to high inventory and financial attribute disturbances, while broadleaf pulp is relatively resistant to decline supported by costs, but weak demand will limit its upside potential [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory at Changshu Port was 572,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons or 3.1%. Qingdao Port's inventory was 1,429,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,000 tons or 2.3%. Gaolan Port's inventory was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 17.6%. The total inventory of major Chinese pulp ports was 2,172,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.05%, showing a slight de - stocking trend [5][6]. - According to Longzhong Information on November 27, Chile's Arauco Company's November offer for broadleaf pulp Star was $550 per ton, and for natural pulp Venus was $620 per ton [6]. Market Data Market Trends - On November 28, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 202 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 50.49%. The basis of Russian Needle was - 28 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 33.33%. The price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.89% [15]. Monthly Spreads - On November 28, 2025, the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 43.75%. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.08% [20]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Jinyu was 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.20%. The price difference between Russian Needle and Jinyu was 770 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.84% [27]. - The import profit of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. On November 28, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) was - 119.43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 57.07% and a year - on - year increase of 47.47%. The import profit of broadleaf pulp (Star) was - 29.54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 165.34% and a year - on - year increase of 69.93% [30]. - The spot price of imported coniferous pulp declined further. On November 28, 2025, the price of Silver Star was 5,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.32%. The price of broadleaf pulp was expected to increase slightly due to cost support [32][35]. Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China was generally stable this week, with individual prices falling. The supply of domestic chemical mechanical pulp decreased, and the operating rate of domestic broadleaf pulp decreased [44][48]. - In September 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month - on - month. In October, the global pulp shipping volume decreased seasonally month - on - month [52]. - In August 2025, the shipping volume of W20 coniferous pulp was at a low level with high inventory, while the shipping volume of broadleaf pulp remained high but with a low inventory days [56]. - In August 2025, the total coniferous pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and were at a low level year - on - year. In September, Finland's exports to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Chile's coniferous pulp exports to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [62]. - In September 2025, the total broadleaf pulp exports of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In October, Brazil's exports decreased slightly month - on - month, and Uruguay's exports decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were differentiated. Coniferous pulp imports increased by 0.06% month - on - month, broadleaf pulp imports decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the imports of natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp increased significantly [68]. Demand - The price of offset paper increased slightly this week. Due to profitability and production - sales pressure, some production lines were transferred or operated at reduced loads. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, with users mainly making rigid purchases [72]. - The price of coated paper decreased slightly this week. The supply was abundant, and the consumption was weak due to the impact of electronic media. Factories' willingness to support prices increased [76]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable. Although the cost decreased slightly, it was still at a high level. Paper mills planned to increase prices in December. The supply increased due to new capacity, and the sales were stable. Traders were mainly waiting and seeing [80]. - The price of household paper remained stable. The terminal demand was weak, and some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure. The de - stocking process slowed down, and the industry operating rate remained low [84]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year [88]. Inventory - On November 28, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 209,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.92% [91]. - The overall port inventory was at a medium level within the year, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Qingdao Port's inventory decreased slightly, Changshu Port's inventory increased, and the inventory of other ports fluctuated within a normal range [97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas new - capacity addition is limited in 2025 - 2026. With major overseas broadleaf pulp mills announcing production cuts and conversions in the second half of this year, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down. European economic improvement may increase the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition in recent years may bring more supply next year, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [5][50]. - Regarding demand, although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production this year, terminal demand was insufficient, paper was in surplus, and paper mills' operating rates were low. The downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high port inventories. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, the demand for cultural paper is not expected to be strong, and packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [5][50]. - Overall, in the short - term, the improvement in pulp supply and demand is insufficient, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pulp price center is expected to rise. It is recommended to wait for the bottom - building and then consider long - position opportunities when the price is low. The breakthrough from the bottom depends on substantial improvement in supply and demand. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining cloth - needle warehouse receipts on the market [6][51]. Summary by Directory 2025 Pulp Market Review - The pulp price showed a trend of continuous decline followed by wide - range fluctuations at a low level throughout the year. It can be divided into five stages: from January to early February, it fluctuated strongly; from mid - February to early May, it declined continuously; from mid - May to July, it fluctuated widely; from August to early October, it hit a new low again; from mid - October to the present, it consolidated at a low level [12][13]. Pulp Supply - Demand Analysis Global Wood Pulp Supply - In 2025, overseas pulp mills had few large - scale new installations. The capacity ramp - up of Suzano's broadleaf pulp in Brazil was the main source of market pressure. The global broadleaf pulp shipments remained at a high level throughout the year, and the global softwood pulp shipments recovered rapidly in the third quarter. The shipments to Western Europe and North America decreased, while the demand from China increased significantly. In 2025, from January to September, the cumulative global softwood pulp shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative global broadleaf pulp shipments increased by 7.7% year - on - year. In September, pulp mills reduced inventories, but the overall inventory was still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the softwood pulp inventory pressure was higher than that of broadleaf pulp [16]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the pressure of overseas new - capacity release is expected to ease, and the global broadleaf pulp supply pressure may decrease marginally. The growth rate of broadleaf pulp shipments may slow down, while the softwood pulp may still see a slight increase in the short - term due to high inventory and rising shipments [17]. European Consumption and Inventory - European demand remained weak. In October, the consumption of softwood pulp in Europe was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%; the consumption of broadleaf pulp was 562,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In October, the inventory days at European pulp mills remained at a historical high, suppressing the pulp price. Most European ports' inventories decreased month - on - month in September, and the total European port inventory decreased by 4.39% month - on - month, but it was still at a relatively high level in recent years [21]. China's Pulp Imports - In 2025, the cumulative global pulp shipments increased slightly year - on - year. Due to weak demand in the European and American markets, China became the main destination for increased shipments. From January to October, China's cumulative pulp imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. The increase in China's pulp imports mainly came from the rise in broadleaf pulp imports, and the total softwood pulp imports also increased, but the increase was relatively small [24][25]. - In 2026, with the recovery of the European economy, the proportion of trade pulp sent to China may decline. The import pressure of broadleaf pulp may decrease, and the increase in softwood pulp imports is also expected to be limited [25]. China's Port Inventories - In 2025, China's pulp port inventories remained at a high level for a long time, indicating an oversupply in the domestic pulp market. Downstream paper mills had low willingness to replenish raw material inventories and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In November, the port inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure remained. The combined pulp inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Baoding area in late November was about 2.0104 million tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous month [31]. China's Downstream Consumption - In recent years, the large - scale new - capacity addition in the domestic finished paper industry led to over - capacity and insufficient demand, squeezing the paper mills' profits. Some large enterprises limited or stopped production. In 2025, the new - capacity addition of white cardboard and offset paper still put pressure on their profits. Although a large amount of finished paper capacity was put into production, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the overall paper production did not increase significantly. From January to October, the total output of four major types of paper was 31.02 million tons, almost the same as last year. In the long - term, the planned new - capacity addition of paper is still large, and the pulp demand is expected to increase slightly next year. But if the terminal orders do not improve, the upside of the pulp price will be limited [34][35]. 2026 Pulp Market Outlook - Supply: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the proportion of trade pulp sent to Europe may increase, alleviating China's import pressure. However, domestic broadleaf pulp new - capacity addition may bring more supply, and the overall domestic supply may remain relatively loose [50]. - Demand: Terminal demand is insufficient, and paper mills' operating rates are low. But the continuous expansion of paper capacity will create marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to stabilize gradually. Next year, packaging paper and household paper are likely to be the main growth points [50]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the pulp market will fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to long - position opportunities when the price is low [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].