1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton inventory is at a near - four - year low, and the supply - demand outlook for the new US cotton season is expected to improve. US cotton has support but short - term upside is limited. In China, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the supply is tight at the end of the year. However, the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage need attention [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term with downward - driven fundamentals [4][5] - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic supply is loose, and weak demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,030 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. - US cotton: In the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 1.95 tons, a 54% week - on - week decrease; weekly shipments were 3.11 tons, a 14% week - on - week increase [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production and consumption, and adjusted down the beginning and ending inventories. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales. - Domestic: The domestic cotton de - stocking speed is fast, and the commercial inventory is at a low level. The supply is tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally, but the new - year production increase expectation and hedging pressure during the new flower listing stage are concerns [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Cotton prices still have some support before the large - scale listing of new cotton, but there may be a decline during the new cotton listing period. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Forecast: The 2025/26 global sugar market is expected to have a 2.77 - million - ton supply surplus, with an expected production of 197.5 million tons and consumption of 194.7 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar supply is strong, and the northern hemisphere has a production increase expectation. - Domestic: The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply in the short term due to high imports and the start of beet sugar production, and the fundamental driving force is downward [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The Zheng sugar price may have limited downside due to cost support and may rebound in the short term, but a bearish view is taken in the medium term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+ 0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. - Market: The price of imported wood pulp was mostly stable, with some fluctuations. The price of imported softwood pulp in some regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the price of imported natural pulp in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas softwood pulp mills' production cut and price increase plans boosted market sentiment, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the overall supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port de - stocking was slower than expected. - Demand: Weak demand in Europe, America, and China is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price may continue to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient fundamental improvement and the pressure of the near - month contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5296, up 0.46% day - on - day and down 0.97% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5044, up 0.72% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5312, up 0.45% day - on - day and down 1.04% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.95% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: Chilean Silver Star was 700, down from 720 last period, a 2.78% decrease; Japanese pulp was 530, up from 510, a 3.92% increase; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down from 5884, a 2.75% decrease; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up from 4182, a 3.87% increase; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% from July; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% from July. The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a 23% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, up 5.0 tons from the previous period, a 2.4% increase. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper remained relatively stable. For example, double - offset paper production was 20.90 tons on September 18, 2025 [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 156, with a quantile level of 0.876; the Silver Star basis was 606, with a quantile level of 0.868 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5]. Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on pulp demand was not yet reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory in mainstream Chinese ports showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are not significantly reduced, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.30% day-on-day and 1.46% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5008, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.18% week-on-week; SP2505 was 5288, down 0.53% day-on-day and 1.31% week-on-week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day-on-day and down 0.95% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.96% week-on-week [5]. - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month-on-month; Japanese X was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month-on-month [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month-on-month [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month-on-month; broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month-on-month. The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, up 23.00% year-on-year [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production volume of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, household paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations in different periods [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 23, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 192, and the quantile level was 0.899; the Silver Star basis was 642, and the quantile level was 0.881 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 23, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was -71, and the quantile level was 0.497; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was -124, and the quantile level was 0.523 [5]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **Supply**: The foreign quotes of coniferous pulp decreased, and the quotes of broadleaf pulp increased. Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp and an increase in broadleaf pulp [5]. - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, the paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" to the pulp demand side have not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5]. - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts are not significantly reduced, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil market is facing increasing supply pressure, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in Q3 and greater surplus pressure in Q4. Brent is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with attention on the support near $65.6 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market has increasing supply and weak demand. Short - term spot prices are expected to run weakly, and the futures are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - The fuel oil market has high - sulfur inventories suppressing prices, and low - sulfur supply increasing with no specific demand drivers. It is expected to be weakly volatile [8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by macro factors and oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, and PTA supply and demand contradictions are expected to ease. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11][13]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and low - level port inventories. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - The short - fiber market has low processing fees and weak downstream demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market has a transition from peak to off - peak demand, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are affected by macro and supply - demand factors. Supply is expected to increase, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - The propylene market has an expected increase in supply and weak downstream demand. Prices are under pressure [28]. - The glass market has a marginal weakening of procurement sentiment. It is expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - The soda ash market has high - level supply and stable demand. Before the festival, prices are expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - The urea market has a loose supply and weak demand. It is expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - The methanol market has an increase in supply and high - level port inventories. The rebound height is limited, and it is recommended to short at high levels [40]. - The offset - printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and limited demand. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - The pulp market has high port inventories and weak demand, but there is support below. It is recommended to try long positions in the SP 11 contract [46]. - The log market has a supply - demand double - weak situation. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have inventory changes and macro factors affecting prices. It is recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decrease in capacity utilization and inventory changes. It is recommended to hold short positions in the BR 11 contract [55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 settled at $62.64, down $0.04 (- 0.06%); Brent2511 settled at $66.57, down $0.11 (- 0.16%); SC2511 fell to 484.2 yuan/barrel, and 477.5 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3387 points (- 0.41%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3329 points (- 0.69%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 closed at 2772 (- 0.22%) at night, LU11 closed at 3363 (- 0.30%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo market had specific month - spreads [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 closed at 6592 (- 0.03%) during the day and 6562 (- 0.46%) at night; TA601 closed at 4586 (- 0.39%) during the day and 4564 (- 0.48%) at night. Spot prices also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 closed at 4268 (- 0.67%) during the day and 4249 (- 0.45%) at night. Spot and futures basis and prices were provided [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 closed at 6344 (- 0.91%) during the day and 6318 (- 0.41%) at night. Spot prices in different regions decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 closed at 5816 (- 0.89%) during the day and 5796 (- 0.34%) at night. Spot market had an acceptable trading atmosphere [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 closed at 5921 (- 0.75%) during the day and 5905 (- 0.27%) at night; EB2511 closed at 6928 (- 0.92%) during the day and 6901 (- 0.39%) at night. Spot prices and inventories changed [22][23]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 closed at 6424 (- 0.59%) during the day and 6401 (- 0.36%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different trends [27]. - **Glass**: The glass 01 contract closed at 1199 yuan/ton (- 1.40%), 1179 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) at night. Spot prices in different regions had different performance [29]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash 01 contract closed at 1293 yuan (- 1.9%), 1276 yuan (- 1.3%) at night. Spot prices in different regions changed [33]. - **Urea**: The urea futures closed at 1660 (- 0.06%). Spot prices decreased across the board [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures closed at 2349 (- 0.17%). Spot prices in different regions were provided [38][39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: OP2601 was volatile and closed at 4234 at night. Market and raw material prices were stable [40]. - **Pulp**: The SP 11 contract closed at 4986, down 22 points (- 0.4%). Imported pulp prices in different varieties had different trends [43]. - **Log**: The 11 - month log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.44%. Spot prices were stable [46]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU 01 closed at 15600, down 15 points (- 0.10%); NR 11 closed at 12455, up 30 points (+ 0.24%); BR 11 closed at 11500, down 5 points (- 0.04%). Spot and futures prices in different varieties were provided [50][51][53]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The net long positions of traders in crude - oil futures and options increased. Middle - East oil - producing countries increased production, and the demand peak season ended [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: In different regions, factors such as rainfall, refinery production resumption, and project construction affected supply and demand and prices [3][4]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries had maintenance and damage incidents, and Singapore's spot - window transactions were limited [7]. - **PX & PTA**: PTA plants had restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations due to different reasons [10][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the downstream polyester sales had different performances [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The downstream polyester sales had different performances, and the short - fiber factory prices decreased [16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Polyester bottle - chip factories' export quotes decreased slightly, and a 60 - ton bottle - chip device in Jiangyin was under maintenance [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene had changes in plant maintenance, production, and port inventories [23][24][25]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene and propane - dehydrogenation operating loads increased [28]. - **Glass**: There were news about financial and industrial policies, and different regions' glass markets had different performances [29][30]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda - ash plants resumed production, and the total inventory decreased [34]. - **Urea**: The daily production increased, and the开工 rate was high. The inventory of production enterprises increased [36][37]. - **Methanol**: International methanol production decreased, and some Iranian devices had problems [39]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: A paper - making project of Jindong Paper reached a milestone, and the export volume and price of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased [40][41]. - **Pulp**: The import volume of bleached pulp and wood chips decreased in August, and the central bank official made a statement [44][45]. - **Log**: The number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs increased, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: An Indian tire company adjusted its export strategy due to US tariffs [52][54]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: The month - spread of Brent was stable, while that of Dubai weakened. Supply pressure increased, and the price was expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory trends were different. Futures prices were expected to be weakly volatile [5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur inventories suppressed prices, and low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand drivers [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: Affected by macro and oil - price factors, PX supply increased, and PTA supply - demand contradictions eased [11][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply was expected to increase, and port inventories were at a low level. Prices were expected to be weakly volatile [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Processing fees were low, and downstream demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Demand transitioned from peak to off - peak, and processing fees were expected to fluctuate at a low level [19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, supply increased, and prices were expected to be weakly volatile [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Supply was expected to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Prices were under pressure [28]. - **Glass**: Procurement sentiment weakened marginally. It was expected to be volatile before the festival [31][32]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply was at a high level, and demand was stable. Before the festival, prices were expected to be stable, and after the festival, attention should be paid to policy and mid - stream pressure [34][35]. - **Urea**: Supply was loose, and demand was weak. It was expected to be weakly volatile [37][38]. - **Methanol**: Supply increased, and port inventories were at a high level. The rebound height was limited [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was limited. It was recommended to short the 01 contract [42][43]. - **Pulp**: Port inventories were high, and demand was weak, but there was support below [46]. - **Log**: Supply - demand was double - weak. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could place a small number of long positions [49][50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Inventory changes and macro factors affected prices. It was recommended to hold short positions in the RU 01 contract and wait and see for the NR 11 contract [52][53]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral: Narrow - range oscillation, focus on the support of Brent near $65.6 per barrel; Arbitrage: Gasoline and diesel cracks were weak; Option: Wait and see [2]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: The asphalt - oil spread was weakly volatile; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for BU2512 [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options for FU01 at high levels [9]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [19][20]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [24][26]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral: It is recommended to short on rebounds, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Not mentioned [29]. - **Glass**: Unilateral: The price is expected to be stable before the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Unilateral: Stable before the festival, pay attention to policy and mid - stream pressure after the festival; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [35]. - **Urea**: Unilateral: Weakly volatile; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [38]. - **Methanol**: Unilateral: Short at high levels, not to chase shorts; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell call options [40]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral: Short the 01 contract based on the lower limit of the spot - market price; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money call options [43]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral: Try long positions in the SP 11 contract, enter gradually based on last week's low; Arbitrage: Wait and see, focus on the 11 - 1 reverse spread; Option: Wait and see [46]. - **Log**: Unilateral: Wait and see, aggressive investors can place a small number of long positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [50]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral: Hold short positions in the RU 01 contract, wait and see for the NR 11 contract; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Neutral. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. Chile's Arauco Company's September quotations showed a $20/ton increase in the price of broadleaf pulp Star, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Currently, there has been no significant increase in the production and price of wood pulp paper. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has not led to a reduction in pulp inventory, and overall demand remains weak [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. As of September 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2112,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons or 2.4%. Pulp port inventory remains at a high level [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to above - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Although pulp futures have reached an absolute low, there is no upward driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory still reflects that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. After the delivery of the 09 contract, there was no cancellation of warehouse receipts, and there was no short - term bullish driving force [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the price of softwood pulp remained stable. The price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5620 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Foreign Quotations**: In September, the price of broadleaf pulp increased, while the foreign quotation of softwood pulp decreased. Chile's Arauco's September quotation for softwood pulp Silver Star was $700/ton, and the quotation for broadleaf pulp Star was $540/ton, up $20/ton [16]. - **Position**: The total position of pulp futures decreased. As of September 19, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 33,869 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.65%. The position of the main contract was 166,419 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.36% [18] 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total import volume of pulp was 2.877 million tons, a decrease of 5.08% compared with the previous period. The import volume of softwood pulp was 646,000 tons, a decrease of 4.72%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a decrease of 5.85% [4]. - **Inventory**: Pulp port inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts remained stable. As of September 18, 2025, China's port pulp inventory was 2.112 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4%. Overseas pulp mill inventory also increased, with the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers at 47 days at the end of July [3][38]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4800 yuan/ton, down 3.03% month - on - month; the price of coated paper was 4980 yuan/ton, down 3.3% month - on - month; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3969 yuan/ton, up 0.1% month - on - month [42]. - **Production Volume**: In August 2025, the production volume of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the production volume of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the production volume of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5%; the production volume of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.4% [48]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% and a year - on - year increase of 8.23%; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [56]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian Needle was - 58 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the 11 - 1 spread of pulp was - 298 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [85]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 151 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 9.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [88]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of recovery, the port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts of pulp have no obvious reduction, and the pulp futures fluctuate [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 19, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2505 were 5316, 5018, and 5334 respectively, with day-on-day changes of -0.11%, 0.08%, and -0.22%, and week-on-week changes of 0.72%, 0.56%, and 0.87% [5]. - The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were 5650, 5200, and 4220 respectively, with day-on-day changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00%, and week-on-week changes of 0.00%, 0.58%, and 0.96% [5]. Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese - like, and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.78%, 3.92%, and 0.00% [5]. - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of -2.75%, 3.87%, and 0.00% [5]. Supply - side Data - In July 2025, the import volumes of coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp were 64.6 and 135.1 tons respectively, with month - on - month changes of -4.72% and -5.85% [5]. - The pulp shipment volume to China was 158 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5]. - The domestic production volumes of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp on September 18, 2025 were 23.1 and 22.2 tons respectively [5]. Inventory - side Data - As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.4% [5]. - The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. Demand - side Data - The production volumes of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on September 18, 2025 were 20.90, 8.30, 28.04, and 35.60 tons respectively [5]. Valuation Data - On September 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 182 with a quantile level of 0.896, and the Silver Star basis was 632 with a quantile level of 0.878 [5]. - The import profits of coniferous pulp Silver Star and broadleaf pulp Goldfish were -71 and -124 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.496 and 0.522 [5]. Market Situation - On the supply side, Arauco's September coniferous pulp Silver Star quote was 700 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star quote increased by 20 dollars/ton to 540 dollars/ton, and natural pulp Venus quote remained at 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased while broadleaf pulp quotes increased [5]. - On the demand side, the current paper product demand remained basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, and the implementation remained to be observed [5]. - On the inventory side, as of September 18, 2025, the inventory showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★☆ (representing a clear long/short trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline, and cotton spot sales were poor with most prices stable. Xinjiang cotton has a high probability of a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The expected opening price of machine - picked cotton is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The cotton yarn market has general trading, and downstream orders are still not ideal. Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations should be noted. Temporarily wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio is still at the upper edge of the historical range, and Brazil's sugar - making ratio may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar declined weakly. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is lower year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market focus has shifted to imports and the next crushing season's output estimate. The syrup import volume has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and the spot market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The storage volume of late - maturing apples in cold storage may be higher than expected. It is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, and a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was cautious. The domestic natural rubber spot price declined, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable with some increases, and the external butadiene port price declined. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly this week. The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the tire inventory has increased. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has decreased to 586,600 tons, and the butadiene social inventory has dropped to 12,600 tons. Demand is stable, natural rubber supply increases while inventory decreases, synthetic rubber supply and inventory both decrease. With the National Day holiday approaching, risk appetite is low. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] Pulp - Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the inventory of Chinese pulp ports decreased slightly compared to the previous period but was still at a high level year - on - year. The warehouse receipt digestion was slow. China's pulp import volume in August decreased month - on - month. The inflation is expected to be weak this year, and the PPI has marginally improved. The port inventory is high, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. Temporarily wait and see or trade within a range [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The demand is entering the peak season, but the shipment volume has not increased significantly. The inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily wait and see [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 19, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures 01 contract decreased by 0.41%, with the previous settlement price at 5344 yuan/ton and the closing price at 5322 yuan/ton. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market is 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The quoted price of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong is 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's new September pulp export prices: Silver Star (softwood pulp) is 700 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last month; Venus (unbleached pulp) is 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; Star (hardwood pulp) is 520 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last month. UPM extended the shutdown and maintenance of two Finnish pulp mills by two weeks [8]. - In August, the European pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; the European pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. China's pulp import volume in August was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.54% month - on - month [8]. - In the downstream cultural paper market, the supply increased due to the resumption of previously shut - down production lines, and the inventory pressure of paper enterprises increased recently, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the short term, pulp supply is relatively abundant. Although the start - up rate of downstream paper mills has increased, they mainly purchase at low prices under cost pressure, and the pulp market will continue to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pulp futures 01 contract (SP2601) had an opening price of 5344 yuan/ton, a high of 5354 yuan/ton, a low of 5290 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5322 yuan/ton, down 0.41%. The trading volume was 36,585 lots, and the open interest decreased by 504 lots to 30,131 lots. For SP2605, the closing price was 5346 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The Shandong softwood pulp market had an intended transaction price range of 5020 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the Silver Star was quoted at 5630 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry News Impact**: Arauco's price adjustments and UPM's extended shutdown, along with European and Chinese pulp inventory and consumption data, as well as the situation in the downstream cultural paper market, all affect the short - term pulp market, which is expected to remain in a low - level volatile adjustment [8]. 2. Industry Highlights - On September 18, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the first batch of delivery warehouses for offset printing paper futures. Jianfa Warehousing and Jianfa Pulp & Paper, subsidiaries of Jianfa Co., Ltd., obtained the qualifications for delivery warehouses and delivery factories respectively. Offset printing paper, mainly made of bleached wood pulp, is widely used in books, textbooks, and magazines, and double - sided offset printing paper accounts for about 40% of domestic cultural paper consumption. This is significant for stabilizing the industrial supply chain and promoting market development [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, needle - broadleaf price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][25][27]