Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Grasberg copper mine has announced a resumption plan, with expectations for mid-term copper smelting fees to have upward potential [2] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, is expected to resume large-scale production by Q2 2026, maintaining a copper output of 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [7] - The resumption of multiple copper mines is anticipated to alleviate supply tensions, with the Cobre Panamá mine also expected to restart production, contributing an additional 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper metal annually [7] - The growth rate of copper smelting output from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be lower than that of copper supply, indicating potential marginal improvement in smelting fees [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in major copper smelting companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy), with other notable mentions including Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, highlighting the dynamics and trends affecting these sectors [1] Copper Mining Sector - Grasberg's production is expected to stabilize and grow, contributing to a projected copper production growth rate of approximately 3.3% in 2026 [7] - The reopening of Cobre Panamá is also a significant factor in easing supply constraints [7] Copper Smelting Sector - The anticipated growth in copper smelting output is expected to lag behind the supply side, suggesting a favorable outlook for smelting fees [7] - Investment recommendations are made for companies with strong resource bases and production expansion potential [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate significant disagreement among policymakers regarding the continuation of interest rate cuts in December, with the probability of a rate cut dropping from 60% to around 30% [1] - Global iron ore production has reached a historical high, with an expected output of approximately 2.613 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 32.98 million tons year-on-year [2] - Jiangsu province has initiated a yellow alert for heavy pollution, but the impact on steel prices is expected to be limited due to the majority of steel companies already meeting environmental standards [3] Industry Analysis - **Steel Market Trends**: - Construction steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight decline due to increased production and weakened cost support from raw materials [4] - Plate steel prices are under pressure from high inventory levels and limited domestic manufacturing demand, leading to a bearish outlook [6] - The price of section steel is also anticipated to decline as supply pressures increase and demand remains weak [7] - Pipe prices are stable but facing downward pressure due to reduced demand from end markets [8] - **Raw Material Trends**: - Coking coal prices have dropped, influenced by government efforts to stabilize energy supply, with a significant number of independent coking plants reporting losses [9] - Steel billet prices are expected to decline as production slows and inventory levels remain high [10] - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills and a decrease in shipments from Australia and Brazil [11] - Scrap steel prices are expected to remain weak as supply exceeds demand, with steel mills adjusting their scrap usage based on profitability [13] Price Forecast - The steel market is facing downward pressure due to a lack of macroeconomic support and ongoing production adjustments, with expectations of further price declines in the short term [14]

Group 1 - On November 20, Baosteel Co., Ltd. executed a block trade of 650,000 shares, with a transaction value of 1.6445 million yuan, accounting for 0.14% of the total transaction value for the day [1][2] - The transaction price was 2.53 yuan, which was in line with the market closing price of 2.53 yuan [1][2]

Report Key Information 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog - The report shows the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from November 12 to November 18, 2025, along with the month - on - month changes [3]. - On November 12, 2025, prices were 2205 in East China, 2277 in North China, 2037 in Central China, 2208 in South China, 2221 in Northeast China, and 2097 in Southwest China [3]. - By November 18, 2025, prices were 2199 in East China, 2273 in North China, 2033 in Central China, 2223 in South China, 2226 in Northeast China, and 2094 in Southwest China [3]. - The month - on - month changes were 3 in East China, - 1 in North China, 0 in Central China, 2 in South China, 0 in Northeast China, and 0 in Southwest China [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from 2025/11/11 to 2025/11/17, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong for hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils. The price changes are also listed, with the highest increase of 80 for Shanghai hot-rolled coil and 100 for Lecong cold-rolled coil [1] Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the appointment of Zeng Feijun as the new general manager of Fangda Special Steel, approved by the board of directors [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Fangda Special Steel is as follows: 98.23% from the steel industry, 1.56% from the mining industry, and 0.21% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Fangda Special Steel has a market capitalization of 14.5 billion yuan [1]

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Group 1 - The Indian government has imposed anti-dumping duties on certain steel products imported from Vietnam for a duration of five years [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the meeting was on China's economic transformation, particularly in expanding domestic demand and promoting green low-carbon transition, which are crucial for both China's high-quality development and international economic cooperation [1][7][15] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" was highlighted as a significant strategic framework for China's development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of modernization and international collaboration [4][11] - Specific measures to increase domestic consumption were discussed, including raising residents' income, improving the efficiency of wealth distribution, and removing consumption restrictions [7][8] Group 2 - The meeting addressed the concerns of many developing countries regarding the evolution of cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly in manufacturing and digital sectors [11][12] - The discussion included China's resilience in the face of trade wars, with data indicating that approximately 80% of Chinese exports remain competitive even with a 30% price increase [15][16] - The dialogue also covered the challenges of market segmentation and local protectionism, with commitments to address these issues through systematic reforms [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The successful commissioning of the Simandou project is expected to significantly alter the iron ore supply landscape, with the project having a production capacity of 120 million tons per year and an average grade exceeding 65% [8] - Chinese enterprises hold substantial equity in the Simandou project, enhancing their influence over iron ore pricing and settlement systems, which may lead to a transformation in the pricing dynamics of iron ore [8] - The mid-term outlook suggests an oversupply of iron ore, which could lead to a decline in prices, benefiting the cost structure of the steel industry and potentially increasing profit margins for steel companies [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on companies with optimized product structures and stable profitability, such as Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy), CITIC Special Steel (000708, Buy), and Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) [3] - Other companies mentioned include Hualing Steel (000932, Not Rated) and Sansteel Minguang (002110, Not Rated) [3] Industry Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is poised to disrupt the current dominance of the four major iron ore suppliers, potentially becoming the fifth largest mine globally [8] - The project is expected to enhance the bargaining power of Chinese companies in the iron ore market, with a shift towards using the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore futures prices as a benchmark for trade [8] - The anticipated increase in iron ore production from various global mining projects may lead to a supply surplus, impacting pricing and profitability in the steel sector [8]