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宝城期货:锰硅震荡寻底
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-13 00:43
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]
永安期货铁合金早报-20250612
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 05:15
库存 成本利润 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁:60家样本企业:库存:中国(周) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁:60家样本企业:库存:宁夏(周) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 ...
硅铁:主产地区减产仍存,宽幅震荡,锰硅,海外矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:50
2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 硅铁:主产地区减产仍存,宽幅震荡 锰硅:海外矿企报价下移,偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5298 | 6 | 61,627 | 69,305 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5184 | 10 | 159,669 | 217,041 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5472 | -58 | 44,991 | 27,893 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5486 | -56 | 245,672 | 448,864 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5100 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5430 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 ...
黑色产业链日报-20250611
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 12:50
黑色产业链日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格:沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者:许亮 Z0002220 审核:唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制,但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期,本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改, 交易者(您)应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正,但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,交易者(您)并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者(您)依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可,任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的,需在允许的范围内使用,并注明出处为"东 亚期货",且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...
黑色商品日报(2025年6月11日)-20250611
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 05:26
黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 11 日) 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢:昨日螺纹盘面窄幅震荡,截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2974 元/吨,较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 下跌 7 元/吨,跌幅为 0.23%,持仓减少 3.15 万手。现货价格稳中有跌,成交维持低位,唐山地区迁安普 | | | | 方坯价格持平于 2900 元/吨,杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3060 元/吨,全国建材成交量 9.98 万 | | | | 吨。目前螺纹现货供需矛盾不明显,部分市场仍出现缺规格的现象,规格加价明显。不过市场已转入消费 | | | | 淡季,华东地区雨水天气较多,市场对后期供需预期依然较弱。中美谈判代表在伦敦启动经贸会谈,这是 | | | | 中美贸易战爆发以来第二轮正式磋商,市场对于谈判结果较为关注。预计短期螺纹盘面仍低位整理运行为 | | | | 主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石:昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格呈现震荡整理走势,收于 698.5 元/吨,较前一 ...
永安期货铁合金早报-20250611
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:19
仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:72%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁:75%FeSi:出口价格:天津港 (美元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差(元/吨) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01 ...
专题报告:硅锰价格承压运行,静待硅锰库存消耗
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 00:49
研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号:F3056360 投资咨询号:Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03096767 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号:F03108558 投资咨询号:Z0021505 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|专题报告 2025-06-11 硅锰价格承压运行,静待硅锰库存消耗 策略摘要 硅锰产能偏宽松,下游消费无明显增量,且硅锰库存仍在高位运行,抑制硅锰价格的高 度。叠加进入 5 月份锰矿、电价和煤炭等价格下跌,硅锰成本重心下移。1-5 月锰矿供 给虽有一些扰动,但近期锰矿库存有所回升。各产区长时间亏损,关注产区减产情况和 硅锰库存变化情况,同时关注电价变化。 核心观点 ■ 市场分析 不同产区硅锰企业亏损,产量逐步降低。各产区都出现了较长时间的亏损,内蒙、宁夏 等成本较低的产区也出现了不同程度的长时间亏损,合金企业通过检修等措施降低产量。 月度产量出现明显下降,5 月份月度产量降低至 74.3 万吨。硅锰周度开工率逐步 ...
【工业硅】利空拖累对冲盼涨情绪,弱平衡究竟何时能否“破局”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-10 14:34
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with a minor increase in prices, but overall supply pressure remains significant, leading to potential downward price movements in the future [1][3][7]. Market Performance - On June 10, the main contract for industrial silicon closed at 7415, up by 60 from the previous day, reflecting a 0.82% increase, although the closing price was still down by 60 compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The total trading volume for the main contract was 440,221 lots, with an open interest of 155,627 lots, and the current total open interest stands at 639,121 lots [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price recovery in the futures market has provided some confidence to the otherwise sluggish spot market, but the overall supply situation remains loose, with factories planning to resume production, which may increase supply pressure [3][7]. - The reduction in electricity prices during the flood season is expected to weaken cost support, potentially leading to further price declines as some factories may lower prices to alleviate pressure [3][7]. Raw Material Trends - The market for raw materials such as polysilicon and organosilicon remains stable, with no significant changes observed [5]. Future Considerations - The stability of industrial silicon prices is fragile, and market participants should closely monitor several factors: 1. The progress and scale of factory resumption [7] 2. The extent of electricity price reductions during the flood season [7] 3. The sustainability of the futures market rebound [7] 4. The resilience of downstream demand in key application areas [7] 5. The actual progress of inventory digestion in both social and factory stocks [7]
永安期货铁合金早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:52
库存 成本利润 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁:60家样本企业:库存:中国(周) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁:60家样本企业:库存:宁夏(周) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 ...
铁合金周报:宏观氛围转暖,低位有所止跌-20250609
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 12:41
投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 宏观氛围转暖 低位有所止跌 ——铁合金周报20250609 投 资 咨 询 部 :彭博涵 联 系 方 式 :0371-58630083 电 子 邮 箱 :pengbh_qh@ccnew.com 执 业证书 编 号 :F3076814 投资咨询 编 号 :Z0016415 01 硅铁 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应:端午归来宁夏部分厂家复产,产量低位迅速回升。 需求:铁水产量见顶,成材进入淡季对合金需求转弱。 | | | | | 库存:钢厂库存回落,厂家库存止降回升。 | | 需求不及 | | | 成本:青海宁夏周度电费小降1分,成本重心继续回落。 | 短期观望或 | 预期/供 | | 硅铁 | | 反弹偏空。 | 应减产超 | | | 基差:盘面贴水幅度较大。 | | 预期 | | | 总结:上周硅铁供增需弱,受商品反弹氛围提振价格止跌。前期供应快速收缩带 | | | | | 动平衡表缺口不断扩大,近两周显性库存消化下降较快,但降库之后企业开工意 | | | | | ...