Report Summary - The market focus is on the China-US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th and the "15th Five-Year Plan" policy. The market risk appetite has increased, and the market has more expectations for next year's economic development. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the output is expected to further increase. The average weekly operating rate of enterprises is expected to remain stable at 62.5%. The LME 0 - 3 maintains a premium, and the LME inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive months. As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons month - on - month. The aluminum price has continued to rise due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, and investors should wait for a callback to buy. Pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [5]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The increase in the domestic supply side is relatively limited [8]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined [8]. - The domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has warmed up [8]. Bearish Factors - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [8]. - The price of aluminum oxide continues to be weak [8]. Data Analysis Bauxite - In September, China's bauxite output was 4.8821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. The supply in Shanxi and Henan is tight, but the overall price is expected to remain stable. With the end of the rainy season, the domestic supply is expected to significantly recover [20]. - In September, China's bauxite imports were 15.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The imports from Guinea and Australia decreased. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [22]. Alumina - In September, the alumina price declined, and the factory profit decreased but still had a profit. The output decreased by 1.7% month - on - month and increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 80.2%. It is expected that the output in October will remain stable [25]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the daily average output of aluminum ingots is expected to further increase [29]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical industry profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [33]. - Last week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was stable at 62.5%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly increase this week [37]. Inventory - The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and as of a certain time, it was 477,675 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week to 122,028 tons [50]. - As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [54]. Price Premium - On October 23rd, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum changed from par to a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium decreased to 8.21 US dollars/ton [58]. Recycled Aluminum - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. It is expected that the output in October will slightly decrease [62]. - As of October 16th, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [66]. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy - In September, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% and a month - on - month increase of 15.77%. It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same - period import volume [70]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of October 24th, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [76]. Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is firm, the inventory of recycled aluminum has decreased, and the price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high [78]. - SHFE aluminum: Due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, the aluminum price has continued to rise. Investors should wait for a callback to buy and pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [80].

Group 1: Recent IPOs - Zhuoyuan, a corporate services company, successfully listed on NASDAQ, raising $5.6 million with a market capitalization of $32.11 million [1] - Wangsu Technology, a supply chain management service provider, listed on NASDAQ, raising $9.5 million with a market capitalization of $112 million [2] - Haixi New Drug, a pharmaceutical company, successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HK$994 million with a market capitalization of HK$8.603 billion [3] - Jushuitan, an e-commerce SaaS ERP provider, listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HK$2.086 billion with a market capitalization of HK$14.852 billion [4] - Guanghetong, a wireless communication module provider, completed its "A+H" listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HK$2.904 billion with a market capitalization of HK$24.891 billion [5] Group 2: Upcoming IPOs - Bama Tea, a high-end tea brand, plans to issue 9 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HK$428 million, with an expected listing date of October 28 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] - Cambridge Technology, a supplier of optical and wireless connection devices, plans to issue 67.01 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HK$4.616 billion, with an expected listing date of October 28 [7] - Dipu Technology, an AI application solution provider, plans to issue 26.63 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HK$710 million, with an expected listing date of October 28 [8] - Sany Heavy Industry, an engineering machinery company, plans to issue 580 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HK$12.064 billion, with an expected listing date of October 28 [9] - Minglue Technology, a data intelligence application software company, plans to issue 7.219 million shares, aiming to raise approximately HK$1.018 billion, with an expected listing date of November 3 [10] Group 3: Companies Filing for IPO - Sijiao Infrastructure Fund, a public open-end fund, filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on infrastructure investments [11] - Qingtian Quansuitong, a cross-border intelligent tax solution provider, filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ranking first in the cross-border enterprise intelligent tax solution market [12] - Lakala, an independent digital payment service provider, filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, holding a 9.4% market share in the independent digital payment service sector [13] - Yuwang Biological Nutrition, a supplier of food-grade refined fish oil, filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, being the largest supplier in its category with an 8.1% market share [14] - Jintian Animation, an IP fun food company, filed for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on fun and healthy food products [15] Group 4: Companies Undergoing Hearing for IPO - Pony.ai, an autonomous driving technology company, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on safe and reliable autonomous driving solutions [19] - Joyson Electronics, a smart automotive technology solution provider, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ranking second in the automotive passive safety product sector [20] - WeRide, an autonomous driving technology company, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, ranking second in the global market for urban road L4-level autonomous driving [21] - Wangshan Wangshui, a biopharmaceutical company, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on innovative small molecule drug development [22] - Baitian Tianheng, an innovative biopharmaceutical company, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, developing ADC drugs and multi-specific antibody drugs [23] - Tianyu Semiconductor, a silicon carbide epitaxial wafer supplier, passed the hearing for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, holding a 38.8% market share in the silicon carbide epitaxial wafer market [24] Group 5: Companies Approved for Filing - Six companies, including Naxin Micro and Baiguoyuan, received approval for overseas IPOs and domestic unlisted shares "full circulation" filing from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday. High prices are suppressing demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The supply shortage of copper ore supports the price bottom. It is expected that the domestic refined copper production in October may decline month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices were slightly stronger yesterday. The supply is stable, and the demand shows resilience in the peak season. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly stronger, with cost support. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is moderately recovering. The inventory has started to decline slowly. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Due to concerns about a short squeeze in the LME zinc market, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The supply is abundant, but the increase in domestic zinc smelters in the second half of the year may be limited. The macro - economic environment with high probability of interest rate cuts supports the zinc price. The demand is not exceeding expectations. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain an oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the supply side is strong. The demand is weak, and the new demand cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the macro - economic changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic risk has increased, and the ore end has some positive factors. The refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic environment has some positive factors, but the nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the demand in the peak season is not strongly boosted. It is expected that the market will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was strong. The supply - demand gap remains after entering the peak season. The downstream demand is optimistic. The inventory is declining. It is expected that the market will run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 84,955 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 6.66% to 3,145 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; the import volume was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous day. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 1.12% to 1,809 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21,900 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss was - 6,123 yuan/ton, down 760.42 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 56.00 US dollars/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 11.90% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,100 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In September, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.75% from the previous day [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the import volume was 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 US dollars/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 340 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; the demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. In the macro - aspect, attention should be paid to tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and the COMEX - LME spread. In the fundamental aspect, tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. High copper prices have a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure significant and demand weak. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes, downstream acceptance of high prices, and inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in a range - bound shock. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty pose constraints. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. Demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but has limited upward elasticity. The main contract is expected to range from 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand is weak. Considering the strong supply - side influence, attention should be paid to buying points when the macro - sentiment falls. The subsequent trend depends on the recovery of Myanmar's supply in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound. Macro risks have increased, and there is some positive news from the ore end. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The main contract is expected to range from 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply [14][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be strong in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro risks [17][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.01% to 85,630 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 31.75% to 3,570 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% month - on - month to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% week - on - week to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.10% to 20,930 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% month - on - month to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions showed an increasing trend [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% month - on - month to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 21,870 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 101.06 yuan/ton to - 4,429 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% month - on - month to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.36% to 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.08% to - 142.00 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month to 10,510 tons, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 63.90% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 122,100 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% month - on - month to 32,200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 3.93% week - on - week to 61,188 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.89% to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 87,260 tons, and the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.38% to 84,538 tons [17].

◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.8美元/干吨至72.5美元/干吨。几内亚雨季结束，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降140万吨至9715万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加11.5万吨至401.7万吨。上半年新投产的氧化铝 产能进入稳产状态，但国产矿石供应问题和氧化铝价格低迷的影响下，部分内陆氧化铝企业检修或压产。电解铝运行产能周度环比 下降2万吨至4443.4万吨。山西朔州能源开始对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右。需求方面，国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于62.5%。旺季需求表现偏弱，叠加铝价高位，抑制了下游各加工板块开工上升。库存方面，铝锭 社会库存去化幅度较好。再生铸造铝合金方面，废铝流通偏紧、价格高企，而终端需求复苏不及预期，再生铝企业开工率下调。特 朗普关税或是为中美元首10月APEC会晤添加筹码，同时美联储10月降息时点即将来临，在此期间仍然建议逢低布局多单，在关 注关税进展和市场情绪。 ◆ 策略建议 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Tin - Supply is tight with low processing fees and uncertain Myanmar supply; demand is weak, and short - term macro - perturbations are expected. Consider buying on macro - sentiment drops. The future price depends on Myanmar's supply recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Cost support is strong, supply has potential pressure, demand is moderately recovering, and inventory is showing a downward trend. ADC12 prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alumina - The market is in an oversupply situation, with cost support weakening and demand remaining sluggish. Spot prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the main contract may fluctuate in the range of 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. High prices are suppressing downstream procurement. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term [4]. Nickel - Macro risks are increasing, there is some positive news in the ore sector, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Stainless Steel - Macro risks are magnified, raw material prices are firm, but downstream demand fails to meet expectations, and inventory is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply path is becoming clear, demand in the peak season is strong, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be strong [10]. Copper - High copper prices are suppressing demand. Macro factors and supply shortages will influence the price. The long - term supply shortage will support the price, and the main contract should pay attention to the 84000 - 85000 support level [12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.18% to 281200 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 15.05% to - 130.01 dollars/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore imports decreased by 0.11%; September SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% [2]. Inventory - SHEF inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5879 tons; social inventory decreased by 1.32% to 7786 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 prices remained unchanged; some scrap - to - refined aluminum price spreads increased [3]. Fundamental Data - September recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; August primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons [3]. Inventory - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory decreased by 2.84% to 5.48 million tons [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.14% to 20950 yuan/ton; alumina prices in various regions decreased [4]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; September electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [4]. Inventory - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.39% to 62.70 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.73% [4]. Aluminum - Similar to the alumina section in price, spread, fundamental data, and inventory aspects [4]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.12% to 122150 yuan/ton; some nickel ore and new - energy material prices changed [5]. Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 tons; refined nickel imports decreased by 3.00% [5]. Inventory - SHFE inventory increased by 1.75% to 29575 tons; social inventory increased by 7.02% to 43694 tons [5]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.78% to 13000 yuan/ton; some raw material prices changed [7]. Fundamental Data - September 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased slightly; stainless - steel imports increased by 60.48% in August [7]. Inventory - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.56% to 50.18 million tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% to 8.32 million tons [7]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton; some lithium raw material prices increased [10]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% [10]. Inventory - September lithium carbonate total inventory decreased slightly; downstream inventory increased by 15.29%, and smelter inventory decreased by 19.16% [10]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.07% to 85175 yuan/ton; some spreads and premiums changed [12][14]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; August electrolytic copper imports decreased by 10.99% [12][14]. Inventory - Domestic social inventory increased by 6.73% to 17.75 million tons; SHFE inventory increased by 15.42% to 10.97 million tons [12][14].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

Core Insights - The conference focused on the innovative development of the aluminum industry chain and the role of futures and options in driving high-quality growth [1][2] - The current challenges faced by the Chinese aluminum industry include tightening resource, energy, and environmental constraints, increased cost volatility, differentiated downstream demand, structural contradictions, and a severe international trade environment [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures fills a gap in risk management for the downstream aluminum industry, enabling companies to transition from rough management to precise management [1] Group 1 - The speaker emphasized the need for companies to enhance their risk resistance through financial derivatives in response to multiple pressures [1] - The standardized delivery mechanism of futures contracts has led to the establishment of a quality pricing system based on ADC12, promoting resource concentration towards efficient and green enterprises [1] - The conference attracted nearly a hundred representatives from upstream and downstream aluminum industry companies, financial institutions, and industry associations, fostering active discussions and providing new ideas for high-quality development in the Central Plains region [2] Group 2 - The speaker detailed the practical applications of options, including call options, put options, and spread strategies, in cost locking, profit protection, and risk avoidance [2] - Futures and options are described as complementary risk management tools that together create a comprehensive risk management system across the entire aluminum chain [2] - The speaker called for industry chain enterprises to actively learn and utilize derivative tools to enhance competitiveness and shape a new global aluminum trade pattern centered around "Chinese pricing" [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The given reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro - factors like the approaching China - US tariff extension deadline and the weak US employment report could drive short - term trading. The supply shortage of copper mines will support copper prices in the long - term. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued to be weak, and the aluminum market was in an oversupply situation. The spot price of aluminum is expected to remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton, supported by macro - easing expectations and a tight - balance fundamentals, but high prices are suppressing downstream procurement [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures oscillated, with the main contract slightly down. Cost support was prominent, but supply was restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand was moderately recovering, and inventory was increasing, suppressing price increases. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated, with pressure above. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from mines to zinc ingots. The increase in zinc ingot production is limited. Demand did not exceed expectations. The Shanghai zinc is expected to remain oscillating between 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin mines remained tight, while demand was weak. The short - term macro - volatility is expected to increase. Consider buying on dips due to macro - sentiment drops. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated narrowly. Macro - risks increased, and there were some positive factors in the mining end, but the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, restricting price increases. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated weakly. Macro - risks increased, raw material prices were firm, but the peak - season demand was not met, and inventory pressure was high. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated. The supply - side situation was gradually becoming clear but with many uncertainties. Demand was robust, and the whole - chain inventory was decreasing. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, with the main contract price centered between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.88% to 85,235 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price and premium changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons; in August, imports decreased by 10.99% to 26.43 million tons. Various inventory data also changed [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.10% to 20,920 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. Aluminum inventories also changed [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased by 0.24%. Various scrap - to - refined price differences remained unchanged [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.88% to 27.10 million tons. The开工 rate of different types of enterprises also changed [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.90% to 22,010 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons; in August, imports increased by 43.30% to 1.79 million tons. The开工 rate of related industries and inventory data also changed [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 281,700 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. Other price and spread data also changed [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons; in August, imports decreased by 40.19% to 1,296 tons. Inventory data also changed [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,300 yuan/ton. Various nickel - related prices and spreads changed [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons; imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. Inventory data also changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The futures - spot spread decreased by 8.11% [13]. Fundamental Data - In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. Import and export volumes, as well as inventory data, also changed [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 73,000 yuan/ton. Various lithium - related prices and spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons; demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. Inventory data also changed [17].