Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - **ZTO Express**: Focus on performance in Southeast Asia and China market - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: Rating downgrade and market outlook - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: Performance expectations for 2025 - **Siyuan Electric**: Performance in the power equipment sector - **Solar Industry**: Implementation of anti-involution policies and market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments - **ZTO Express**: - Expected to raise full-year guidance for Southeast Asia, but Q2 growth in China slowed to 15%, potentially leading to a downward adjustment of full-year guidance [1][3] - Adjusted net profit forecast for the year is 8.8 billion yuan, with a 19% year-on-year decline [5] - **Pacific Basin Shipping**: - Rating downgraded due to strong stock performance and reasonable valuation [6] - Risks include potential trade agreements between the US and China and global trade deterioration [6] - **Cathay Pacific Airways**: - Anticipated strong performance in H1 2025 with passenger traffic growth exceeding expectations [9] - Oil prices are down year-on-year, benefiting profit margins, but cargo demand remains uncertain [9] - **Siyuan Electric**: - Strong performance in overseas markets and breakthroughs in high-end domestic markets [14] - Expected profit growth of 25% this year, with potential for over 20% growth in the next two years [14] - **Solar Industry**: - Anti-involution policies are being discussed, but specific measures are yet to be implemented [12] - Anticipated decline in demand in the second half of the year, with a forecast of 280 to 300 GW for the year [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Banking Sector**: - Credit card consumption is declining due to rising personal credit delinquency rates, while overall consumer spending is rebounding [10][11] - Bank fee income is expected to recover gradually as consumer spending stabilizes [11] - **Shipping Industry**: - The container shipping sector faces uncertainties due to global trade conditions and capital expenditure slowdowns [7][8] - Ratings for major shipping companies remain cautious, with potential adjustments based on mid-year performance [8] - **General Economic Trends**: - Overall consumer spending is showing signs of recovery, with online payment growth outpacing offline [10] - Household financial assets continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace compared to last year [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is testing key positions with some resistance, and the four major stock index futures contracts have declined. Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures [2][3][4]. - Treasury bond futures are likely to show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips and pay attention to the capital interest rate [5][7]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. - The container shipping futures market is expected to have a small increase in August if quotes do not fall, and a cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [12][13]. - For various metals, such as copper, zinc, and tin, prices are affected by factors like supply - demand, tariffs, and inventory, with different short - term trends and operation suggestions [15][24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a volatile state during the off - season, and iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [43][47]. - For agricultural products,粕类 markets are bottom - grinding, the pig market has potential supply pressure, and corn prices are in a narrow - range oscillation [55][58][60]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, major indices first rose in the morning and then fluctuated down in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13%, and most stock index futures contracts declined. The base spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts were repaired [2][3]. - **News**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The US delegation is expected to meet with Chinese officials in August to discuss trade issues [3][4]. - **Funding**: On July 9, the A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider a bull spread strategy for index futures as the index has broken through the short - term shock range, but be cautious when testing key positions [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed up, and the yields of most major interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market moved up [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 9, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively abundant [5][6]. - **Fundamentals**: The CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The CPI increase was mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider allocating more on dips for treasury bond futures and pay attention to the capital interest rate. The T2509 may fluctuate between 108.8 - 109.2 [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market News**: Trump announced tariffs on multiple countries, and the EU - US trade dispute focuses on tariffs in specific industries. The Fed's internal officials have differences in decision - making due to the impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation [8][9]. - **Market Performance**: Gold prices showed a V - shaped reversal after a decline, closing up 0.37%. Silver prices were dragged down by copper prices, closing down 0.99% [10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend, and short - term fluctuations are affected by trade agreements and inflation data. Silver is supported by industrial demand [10][11]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: As of July 10, the quotes of major shipping companies were provided [12]. - **Indices**: As of July 7, the SCFIS European line index rose 2.3% month - on - month, and the US West line index fell 1.4% month - on - month [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased by 8.1% year - on - year as of July 8. The PMI data of the Eurozone and the US in June were also provided [12]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The futures market rose on the previous day. If quotes do not fall, there may be a small increase in August. A cautious and bullish attitude towards the 08 contract is recommended [13]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 9, copper prices and premiums decreased. Downstream demand was weak, and the supply was not tight [15]. - **Macro**: Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and the new tariff may take effect at the end of July [15]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is restricted, and the production of electrolytic copper in June decreased slightly but is expected to increase in July [16]. - **Demand**: Short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand has overdrawn Q3 demand [17]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventories, LME inventories, and Chinese social inventories are low, while COMEX inventories are at a historical high [17]. - **Logic and Suggestion**: The short - term trading is driven by US copper tariffs. The price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the main contract may range from 76,000 - 79,500 [18]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Oxide**: Spot prices are tightening, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term but with limited upside. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels, and the main contract may range from 20,000 - 20,800 [20][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state with both supply and demand being weak. The main contract may range from 19,200 - 20,000 [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The main contract may range from 21,500 - 23,000 [24][27]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - environment is volatile. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, and the market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [27][31]. - **Nickel**: The macro - risk has increased, and the industry has over - supply. The main contract may range from 118,000 - 126,000 [31][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract may range from 12,500 - 13,000 [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is relatively strong, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The main contract may range from 60,000 - 65,000 [38][42]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices were stable, and the basis weakened [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of raw materials has limited upside potential, and the profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly from the high level, with a more significant decrease in rebar production [44]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products was stable at a high level, and the demand in the off - season was resilient [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products was basically unchanged, with rebar inventory decreasing and hot - rolled coil inventory increasing slightly [44]. - **View**: The steel price is expected to be volatile during the off - season. The main contract of hot - rolled coil may range from 3,150 - 3,300, and the rebar may range from 3,050 - 3,150 [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly, and the futures prices rose [46]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [46]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased this week, and the arrival volume at 47 ports decreased significantly [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [47]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2509 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [47]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The futures prices rose, and the spot market was strong. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [48][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut was implemented on June 23. The price is approaching the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to conduct positive spread operations and consider hedging [52][54]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot**: The prices of soybean meal were stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,200 tons [55]. - **Fundamentals**: The US soybean export and growth data, Brazilian soybean export data, and EU soybean import data were provided [55][56]. - **Outlook**: The market is bottom - grinding, and the soybean meal price is in a short - term bottom - grinding state [56]. Other Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The spot price is oscillating. The market has potential supply pressure, and the 09 contract has upward pressure [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price decreased slightly. The short - term price decline is limited, and the price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see [59][60].

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. The 08 contract has upward potential due to the expected peak - season price increase, while the 10 - month contract, being a traditional off - season, presents short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Spot market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Most airlines maintained stable July quotes, with the median of the quotes from major airlines (except Maersk) in the second half of July around $3660. The market is watching Maersk's quote and the 8 - month quotes of other airlines. The expected peak - season price increase is being repaired, and considering good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward space, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - Market situation from June 30 to July 4: The China export container shipping market was stable, with ocean routes showing a differentiated trend and the composite index adjusting. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 5.3% from the previous period [9]. - European routes: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The market freight rate increased slightly, with the Shanghai - to - European basic port market freight rate at $2101/TEU on July 4, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American routes: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. The Shanghai - to - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10]. - Geopolitical events: Houthi rebels launched an attack on Israel on July 6. The US attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, and Iran said the damage was not as serious as the US claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, and China condemned the US attack [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **集运现货价格**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on July 7, 2025, was 2258.04, up 6.3% from June 30; for US West routes, it was 1557.77, down 3.8% from June 30 [12]. - **集运指数（欧线）期货行情**: Provided data on trading of several contracts on July 8, including EC2508, EC2510, etc., such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume [6]. - **航运相关数据走势图**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [16][18]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the market is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - The short - term market may mainly rebound. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to go long on the 2510 contract below 1300 and try to go short on the EC2512 contract above 1650, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies. For the long - term, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further judgments [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Macro Factors - The threat of US tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals led to a 17% overnight increase in New York copper, boosting market bullish sentiment [1]. - Trump's tariff policies, including the postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" implementation to August 1st and the announcement of tariff rates for 14 trading partners, have an impact on the market. The market has digested the negative information, and bullish sentiment is high [2][4]. Shipping Indexes - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% [1]. - On July 4, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1285.2 points, down 7.92% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.5 points, down 0.03%; the US West route was 1176.6 points, down 24.27% [1]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price on July 4 was 1763.49 points, down 98.02 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 2101 USD/TEU, up 3.50%; the US West route was 2089 USD/FEU, down 18.97% [1]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index on July 4 was 1342.99 points, down 1.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1694.30 points, up 3.3%; the US West route was 1084.28 points, down 10.5% [1]. Futures Market - On July 8, the main contract 2508 closed at 2006.2, with a 7.16% increase, a trading volume of 57,700 lots, and an open interest of 35,100 lots, an increase of 536 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%, the margin is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3]. PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, the service PMI was 50 (a two - month high), and the composite PMI was 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May [1]. - The US June Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52, the service PMI was 53.1, and the composite PMI was 52.8 [1].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The spot price increase at the beginning of July exceeded expectations, and the SCFIS settlement index further rebounded above 2,200 points. The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover, and with good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the price increase in the peak season is expected to materialize. The 08 contract still has some upward space, while the 10 - month is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low levels [8]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The price increase at the beginning of July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2,200 points. Most airlines maintained stable quotes in July, with the median of the second - half - of - July quotes around $3,660. There are few airlines that have quoted for August. The peak - season price increase expectation has recovered, and the 08 contract has upward potential, while the 10 - month contract offers short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities [8]. 4.2 Industry News - Market Conditions (June 30 - July 4): The China Export Container Shipping Market remained stable, with the comprehensive index adjusting. The manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI was above the boom - bust line [9]. - European Routes: The eurozone unemployment rate in May was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. The Shanghai - to - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak, and the spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - to - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2,869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9]. - North American Routes: The US manufacturing PMI in June was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The Shanghai - to - US West and East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2,089/FEU and $4,124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [9][10]. - Geopolitical Events: Houthi attacks on Israel, US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and relevant responses from China and the international community [10]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 7, 2025 | June 30, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai - Europe (Basic Ports) | 2,258.04 | 2,123.24 | 134.8 | 6.3 | | Shanghai - US West (Basic Ports) | 1,557.77 | 1,619.19 | - 61.42 | - 3.8 | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data of multiple contracts on July 8 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18]

Key Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the real estate market, with new home sales showing slight improvement while the second-hand home market remains subdued. Price stabilization is anticipated, with land premium rates at low levels [2][4] - The fixed income market is expected to remain strong, particularly in credit bonds, with a focus on medium to high-grade industrial bonds and city investment bonds for investment opportunities [3][5] - The international fertilizer prices have risen significantly, driven by increased global planting areas and limited new production capacity, benefiting domestic leading companies in the fertilizer sector [4] - The transportation sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with passenger transport profitability improving due to strong travel demand, while freight transport shows divergence in profitability across different segments [5][6] - The automotive industry is entering a phase of consolidation, with a focus on key players in the humanoid robot market, as technological advancements continue to drive market confidence [6][7] - The communication sector is projected to see a 7% year-on-year increase in net profit for the second quarter, with strong performance expected from telecom operators and the optical communication segment [8] Fixed Income - The credit bond market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on long-term investments and opportunities in high-quality city investment bonds [3] - Investors are advised to consider extending duration in their portfolios and to look for wave opportunities in the credit market [3] Fertilizer Industry - International fertilizer prices have increased by 42% for urea, 24% for diammonium phosphate, and 23% for potash since the beginning of the year, while domestic prices show a mixed trend [4] - The report recommends companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xingfa Group as beneficiaries of the improving fertilizer demand and profitability [4] Transportation Sector - The second quarter is expected to show improved profitability in passenger transport, particularly in aviation and railways, driven by strong travel demand [5] - Freight transport profitability is mixed, with some segments experiencing growth while others face challenges due to competition and demand fluctuations [5] Automotive Industry - The humanoid robot market is shifting towards a more competitive landscape, with a focus on companies that have strong supply chain orders and innovative technology [6] - The report suggests that the market will increasingly favor companies with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [6] Communication Sector - The communication sector is expected to see a 7% increase in net profit, with strong growth in the optical communication and IDC segments [8] - The report highlights the potential for continued expansion in the communication industry, driven by domestic and international demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market, especially the European route, is being closely monitored with details on EC futures contracts, spot prices, and shipping rates. The increasing weekly average shipping capacity from July to August is expected to put significant downward pressure on subsequent freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on July 7, 2025, showed declines, with EC2508 at 1849.9 (down 2.48%), EC2510 at 1341.9 (down 1.61%), etc [2] - The volume and open interest of different contracts also varied, with EC2508 having a volume of 47769 and an open interest of 36378 (up 431) [2] - The month - spreads between different contracts, such as EC2508 - 2510 at 508.0, showed changes compared to previous days [2] Spot and Index Data - The spot price on June 30, 2025, was 2123.24, with a 9.61% increase from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 2101 dollars/TEU, up 3.50% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European route) on July 4, 2025, was 1694.3, up 3.27% from the previous period [2] Shipping Capacity and Rates - The weekly average shipping capacity in July and August 2025 is 295,000 and 313,000 TEU respectively. The shipping capacity in the third week of July is 320,000 TEU, and the first week of August is 340,000 TEU [2] - The freight rates in the first half of July landed at around 3380 US dollars (equivalent to 2350 points). The shipping company quotes in the second half of July are generally stable, with an average of 3500 US dollars (equivalent to 2500 points) [3] Related News - On July 7, indirect cease - fire negotiations in Gaza restarted in Doha, Qatar. Trump will meet with Netanyahu on Monday to discuss details of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Daily Report on Container Shipping Index" [1] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2000 points. The 08 contract has some upside potential, while attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in October and positive spread arbitrage opportunities between 08 - 10 contracts [8] 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The price increase at the end of June was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2000 points. Maersk's mid - July quote was $2958, and the next week's quote was $2900. Other shipping companies' quotes were mostly in the range of $3300 - $3600, with a median of about $3400. CMA CGM and HPL reported August freight rates of $4745 and $3535 respectively [8] - **Futures Market**: The 08 contract had broken below 1800 points, showing extremely pessimistic market expectations, which are now being repaired. With good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the peak - season price increase is expected to materialize, and the 08 contract has some upside potential. October is a traditional off - season, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: Iran launched a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. International oil prices dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose [9] - **Shipping Market News**: From June 23 - 27, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with the comprehensive index slightly declining. European routes' spot freight rates rose, while Mediterranean routes' rates fell slightly, and North American routes' rates continued to decline [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: The SCFIS European route index increased by 9.6% to 2123.24 points, while the SCFIS US West route index decreased by 22.3% to 1619.19 points [15] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: Details of trading data for contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, and trading volume, are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Charts include Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping index (European route) futures trends, global container shipping capacity, and global container ship order backlog [15][18][22]