行业动态 行业近况 据SMM，2026年1月中国冶金级氧化铝产量环比-1.8%，同比-2.6%；截至1月末，全国建成产能 11032万吨，运行产能环比-1.8%，同比-3.6%，行业供给整体呈小幅收缩态势。 据ALD，2026年1月氧化铝全行业完全成本亏损产能6285万吨，占比64.9%；现金成本亏损产能 2305万吨，占比23.8%，亏损面较2025年12月有明显扩大。 评论 分析员 王政 SAC 执业证书编号： S0080521050013 SFC CE Ref：BRI454 分析员 齐丁 SAC 执业证书编号：S0080521040002 SFC CE Ref：BRF842 分析员 陈彦 SAC 执业证书编号： S0080515060002 SFC CE Ref：ALZ159 从 盈利看，氧化铝行业亏损面扩大，供给收缩有望刺激价格反弹。我们认为，虽然氧化铝行业基本 面维持供大于求的局面，但行业完全成本亏损超过60%、现金成本亏损超过20%的盈利格局难以长 时间维持，一旦企 业因亏损过大而开始关停产能，供给收缩有望推动价格快速反弹。短期看，以检 代停产能增加，我们认为供给收缩方向明确。短期虽未出现因直接亏 ...

（文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 2月10日（周二），澳新银行（ANZ）分析师在一份报告中表示，智利铜行业正面临供应问题：矿石品位下降和日益艰难的运营条件导致该国铜产出难以维 持在当前水平，更不用提提高产量以满足不断增长的需求。 与此同时，对美国总统特朗普将对精炼铜征收关税的担忧已导致美国铜库存激增，使得大量金属无法进入市场。 LME铜价亚洲市场早盘变动不大，最新报每吨13,175.00美元。 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn SMM联合制作联系人 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices have declined by 0.62% to $13,095 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract rose by 0.09% to 101,600 yuan per ton [1] - The increase in inventories and weak demand continue to pressure copper prices, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10 [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, starting February 15, is expected to further impact demand as buyers complete pre-holiday restocking [1] Group 2 - Yangshan copper premium has increased from $20 per ton to $38 per ton, but remains low compared to over $50 per ton at the end of December, indicating weak demand [2] - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance, with tin rising by 3.42% and aluminum, zinc, and nickel declining [2] - LME's three-month tin prices remained stable, while aluminum, zinc, and nickel prices decreased by 0.72%, 0.34%, and 1% respectively, with lead prices increasing by 0.20% [2]

Group 1 - The company Hongda Co., Ltd. announced on February 10 that its 27th meeting of the 10th board of directors was held via video communication [1] - The meeting reviewed the proposal for the investment and construction of a 110kV power transmission and transformation project by the Shifang Nonferrous Metals Branch [1]

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of breaking away from traditional narratives and focusing on market signals and technical indicators to navigate volatile market conditions, particularly in the context of commodity trading [4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have created a complex environment characterized by simultaneous negotiation and confrontation, leading to heightened risks in the short term [9][10]. - The global competition for critical minerals has intensified, driven by energy transition needs, supply chain security concerns, and geopolitical tensions, making these resources crucial for national security and economic development [11][12]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Different commodity sectors are experiencing divergent trends due to varying underlying drivers, with precious metals and certain industrial metals being influenced by global risk sentiment and structural demand, while sectors like black metals and traditional chemicals reflect domestic economic weaknesses [13]. - The article suggests that the market is no longer unified in its bullish or bearish narratives, as each commodity is priced based on its unique supply-demand dynamics, with macro factors serving as a backdrop [13]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investment strategies, the focus should be on right-side trading in resource-oriented metals and left-side positioning in commodities that are currently in a downtrend but are sensitive to macroeconomic policies, particularly in sectors like real estate and chemicals [14]. - Specific insights into the pig market indicate a potential price ceiling due to a large supply base, despite rising prices for piglets, suggesting caution in future price expectations [16]. - The article highlights that the recent performance of caustic soda is closely tied to liquid chlorine prices, which have not declined as expected, indicating ongoing supply pressures that may affect pricing dynamics [19][20].

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index rebounding after hitting a low, led by stocks such as China Power, Qianjin Pharmaceutical, Fenghuo Communication, and Pinggao Electric [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen a continuous net inflow of funds totaling 989 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in both share count at 10.063 billion and total scale at 13.206 billion yuan [1] - Analysis of all A-share listed companies (excluding financial stocks) indicates an improving trend in fundamentals, with a potential turning point for profit growth expected in 2026 due to the expansion of AI technology applications and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies [1] Free Cash Flow Strategy - The free cash flow strategy introduces a new paradigm for value investing, characterized by the ability to provide direct cash returns to investors and ensuring the sustainability and scale of dividends, which are foundational for corporate dividend payments [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) samples the entire A-share market, with the top three industries being automotive, oil and petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a large-cap focus [1] - The Cash Flow 500 ETF (560120) samples the CSI 500, with the top three industries being non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel, reflecting a mid-small cap orientation [1]

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

Core Viewpoint - Hailiang Co., Ltd. has successfully applied its core copper-based materials in leading global chip cooling solutions, indicating strong market relevance and technological advancement [1] Group 1: Product Innovation - The company continues to innovate in copper foil technology, focusing on advanced products such as nickel-plated copper foil for solid-state batteries, double-sided rough copper foil, and ultra-high tensile strength copper foil [1] - These new copper foil products have achieved industry-leading status and received positive feedback from top domestic and international battery cell manufacturers [1] Group 2: Market Position - Hailiang Co., Ltd. has established stable mass production and delivery capabilities for its innovative copper foil products, reinforcing its competitive position in the market [1]