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美国通胀超预期,降息预期减弱压制金价,但“滞胀”叙事回归打开中期上涨空间 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.62% from August 11 to August 15, ranking among the top in all primary industries [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The metal new materials sub-sector rose by 7.67%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 5.31%. Energy metals and small metals sectors saw gains of 2.79% and 1.73%, respectively. In contrast, the precious metals sector declined by 3.45% [2][3] - As of August 15, copper prices were reported at $9,760 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08% week-on-week, while Shanghai copper was priced at 79,060 yuan per ton, up 0.73% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in Chile, including a mine closure due to an earthquake and damage from a collapse, are supporting copper prices despite a lack of demand improvement during the off-season [3] - The aluminum sector is facing a continuous increase in social inventory, with a 3.91% rise to 58.75 million tons. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 44.015 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [4][5] Group 3: Inflation and Precious Metals - U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured gold prices. As of August 15, COMEX gold closed at $3,381.70 per ounce, down 2.21% week-on-week [6] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose significantly, suggesting that tariff-related import costs are increasing [6]
A股早评:三大指数高开沪指涨0.43%,影视院线、液冷服务器概念活跃!金田股份、川润股份涨停,百纳千成涨11%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 01:59
格隆汇8月18日|A股开盘,三大指数集体高开,沪指涨0.43%。深证成指涨0.48%,创业板指涨0.6%。 盘面上,液冷服务器概念继续活跃,金田股份、川润股份(002272)涨停;能源金属板块高开,华友钴业 (603799)、盛新锂能涨超3%,我国锂电池实现新突破,能量密度提高2-3倍;影视院线股盘初拉升,百 纳千成涨超11%,华策影视(300133)、慈文传媒(002343)涨超9%,暑期档总票房逼近百亿;黄金股低 开,湖南黄金(002155)、赤峰黄金(600988)跌超1%。(格隆汇) (责任编辑:宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com ...
A股早评:沪指高开0.43% 影视院线、液冷服务器概念盘初活跃
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-18 01:40
A股开盘,三大指数集体高开,沪指涨0.43%。深证成指涨0.48%,创业板指涨0.6%。盘面上,液冷服务 器概念继续活跃,金田股份4连板,川润股份2连板;能源金属板块高开,华友钴业、盛新锂能涨超 3%,我国锂电池实现新突破,能量密度提高2-3倍;影视院线股盘初拉升,百纳千成涨超11%,华策影 视、慈文传媒涨超9%,暑期档总票房逼近百亿;黄金股低开,湖南黄金、赤峰黄金跌超1%。(格隆汇) ...
矿端供应预期进一步收缩,铜价表现坚挺
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 09:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply expectations for copper are further tightening, leading to a robust performance in copper prices. Additionally, the gold market is expected to benefit from rising inflation expectations in the U.S. due to tariff disturbances [1][38] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase this week [13] - Price fluctuations among non-ferrous metals varied, with some prices rising while others fell [23] 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Supply expectations are tightening, with global copper inventories increasing by 0.84 thousand tons. Chile's copper production growth forecast for 2025 has been significantly reduced [2] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic sentiments, with a slight increase in supply and moderate demand [2] 3. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Supply disruptions are causing lithium prices to rebound strongly, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15% to 83,000 CNY/ton [3] - **Metal Silicon**: The market remains stable with no significant changes in the fundamentals, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] 4. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by U.S. inflation data, with a notable increase in the PPI to 3.7% in July, leading to expectations of continued upward pressure on gold prices [1][38] 5. Key Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [1][2][3]
有色金属周报20250817:供给扰动+降息预期,看好商品价格表现-20250817
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-17 06:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to support commodity prices in the near term [1][2]. - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to the upcoming "golden September and silver October" season, despite some weakness in demand [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly cobalt and lithium, are projected to experience price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to rise in price, driven by central bank gold purchases and changing tariff policies [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices are supported by rising production rates and demand from downstream cable consumption, with the SMM import copper concentrate index showing a slight increase [2][3]. - Aluminum production remains high, but demand is weak, leading to an increase in social inventory [2][21]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages, while lithium prices are also increasing due to tight supply conditions [3]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, with a target of breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [4]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4][5].
融捷股份股价上涨1.01% 锂矿概念股受关注
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 19:12
Group 1 - The stock price of Rongjie Co., Ltd. on August 15 was 35.96 yuan, an increase of 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a peak of 36.18 yuan and a low of 35.40 yuan, and a trading volume of 300 million yuan [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. operates in the energy metals sector, focusing on lithium mining, lithium salt processing, and new energy materials, making it a key player in the domestic lithium resource industry chain with a comprehensive lithium industry layout [1] - On August 15, the net outflow of main funds from Rongjie Co., Ltd. was 19.5681 million yuan, accounting for 0.21% of the circulating market value, with a cumulative net outflow of 182 million yuan over the past five trading days, representing 1.95% of the circulating market value [1]
威领股份股价上涨2.64% 嘉宇矿业实现复工复产
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 17:55
Group 1 - The latest stock price of Weiling Co., Ltd. is 12.43 yuan, an increase of 0.32 yuan from the previous trading day, with a highest intraday price of 12.48 yuan and a lowest of 12.10 yuan, and a trading volume of 88,728 hands, amounting to 1.09 billion yuan [1] - The company operates in the energy metals sector and owns lithium mining resources. The latest announcement indicates that its acquisition of Jiayu Mining will resume production starting June 2025. The company has formed a professional team to update mining infrastructure and equipment and optimize mining plans after gaining control [1] - On the capital flow front, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 7.14 million yuan on that day, with a cumulative net outflow of 26.99 million yuan over the past five days [1]
能源金属板块8月15日涨2.03%,盛屯矿业领涨,主力资金净流入3.3亿元
证券之星消息,8月15日能源金属板块较上一交易日上涨2.03%,盛屯矿业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3696.77,上涨0.83%。深证成指报收于11634.67,上涨1.6%。能源金属板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600711 | 暨电矿业 | 8.19 | 9.05% | 359.05万 | | 29.06亿 | | 605376 | 博迁新材 | 41.97 | 4.53% | 7.85万 | | 3.26亿 | | 301219 | 腾远钻业 | 60.63 | 3.06% | 8.40万 | | 5.12亿 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂V | 38.76 | 2.22% | 37.87万 | | 14.60亿 | | 002240 | 盛新锂能 | 17.91 | 1.99% | 37.45万 | | 6.67亿 | | 300618 | 塞锐钻业 | 37.59 | 1.87% | 9.43万 | | 3.55亿 | | 00 ...
有色金属行业双周报(2025、08、01-2025、08、14):美联储9月降息预期再度升温,工业金属板块上扬-20250815
Dongguan Securities· 2025-08-15 08:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [62]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a significant increase of 7.12% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.72 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industries [3][13]. - The industrial metals sector has experienced a notable rise of 9.58%, while the metal new materials sector increased by 8.71%, and precious metals by 4.87% [19][25]. - The report highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, which have contributed to the upward trend in industrial metal prices [57]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of August 14, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 33.79% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 27.74 percentage points [13]. - The industrial metals sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 30.36%, while the metal new materials sector has risen by 36.84% [19][20]. Price Analysis - Key prices as of August 14, 2025: - LME Copper: $9,777/ton - LME Aluminum: $2,624/ton - LME Lead: $1,990/ton - LME Zinc: $2,842.50/ton - LME Nickel: $15,050/ton - LME Tin: $33,435/ton [25]. - Precious metals prices include: - COMEX Gold: $3,382.30/oz, down $33.7 from early August - COMEX Silver: $38.04/oz, up $0.93 from early August [36][57]. Sector Insights - The rare earth price index has risen to 206.85, reflecting a 1.74 increase since early August, indicating a recovery in the rare earth and magnetic materials sector [43][58]. - Lithium carbonate prices have shown signs of recovery, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 82,000 yuan/ton, up 10,500 yuan from the previous week [41][59]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jinchuan Group (300748) due to their strong performance and market positioning [58][60].
东莞证券-有色金属行业双周报(2025/08/01~2025/08/14):美联储9月降息预期再度升温,工业金属板块上扬-250815
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 06:36
贵金属及工业金属。8月12日,美国劳工统计局数据显示,美国7月CPI环比增长0.2%,预估为0.2%,前 值为0.3%;7月CPI同比增长2.7%,预估为2.8%,前值为2.7%。尽管美国7月通胀温和回升,但因就业市 场走弱以及经济增速放缓等影响,美联储9月降息预期再度抬升,本周工业金属板块迎来普涨。截至8月 14日,LME铜价收于9777美元/吨,LME铝价收于2624美元/吨,LME铅价收于1990美元/吨,LME锌价 收于2842.50美元/吨,LME镍价收于15050美元/吨,LME锡价收于33435美元/吨。截至8月14日, COMEX黄金价格收于3382.30美元/盎司,较8月初下跌33.7美元,COMEX白银价格收于38.04元/盎司, 较8月初上涨0.93美元,上海黄金交易所黄金Au(T+D)价格收于775.10元/克,较8月初上涨7.92元。建议 关注紫金矿业(601899)。 稀土。当前,因反内卷政策落地、需求预期改善以及出口管制优化等因素,稀土产品价格持续回升,后 续稀土及磁材行业有望继续保持景气。截至8月14日,稀土价格指数收于206.85,较8月初回升1.74;氧 化镨钕平均价收于5 ...