记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 1月7日午后，A股冲高回落， 沪指微涨录得14连阳。 贵金属突变，黄金、白银全线跳水，国 内商品期货大面积上涨。沪深两市成交额2.88万亿，较上一个交易日放量493亿，成交额连续2 个交易日超2.8万亿，全市场3188只个股下跌，2164股上涨。 | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 科创综指 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4085.77 | 14030.56 | 1746.72 | | +2.11 +0.05% +8.01 +0.06% +26.32 +1.53% | | | | 万得全A | 创业板指 | 北证50 | | 6654.10 | 3329.69 | 1496.28 | | +12.34 +0.19% +10.40 +0.31% +3.24 +0.22% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4776.67 | 7875.08 | 5860.25 | | -14.03 -0.29% +60.95 +0.78% +0.05 0.00% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证红利 | | 7906.42 | 5 ...

【1月7日南非基准股指市值升至2019年以来最高】因南非兰特走强、金属价格飙升，南非基准股指市值 升至2019年以来最高。富时/约翰内斯堡证券交易所非洲全股指数总市值升破5000亿美元，超挪威、马 来西亚和土耳其等国去年同期市场规模。 约翰内斯堡股市去年涨38%，创2005年以来最佳年度表现， 贵金属和矿业股指数领涨。兰特兑美元升值14%，使股指以美元计涨幅扩至57%。 今年以来，该指数已 涨逾2%，兰特随金价走高继续升值。周二，南非兰特一度升至1美元兑16.31兰特，创逾三年新高。 贝 莱德国际主题投资主管称，大宗商品或继续支撑股市，货币购买力走弱下，金价有望延续涨势。 扫码查看原文 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 FOL hexun.com 和而不同 迅达天下 ...

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced significant declines in the afternoon, with notable drops including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining down 5.54% to HKD 29.32, Shandong Gold down 3.69% to HKD 36.5, China Gold International down 2.94% to HKD 158.4, and Zijin Mining down 2.14% to HKD 146.3 [1][1] - Precious metals saw a broad sell-off on Wednesday, with spot silver dropping over 3%, spot gold down more than 1%, spot palladium falling over 5%, and spot platinum declining by more than 8% [1][1] - UBS's latest report indicates that the recent rise in gold prices lacks strong fundamentals, suggesting that the December rally is not driven by independent positive factors for gold but rather benefiting from the surges in silver, platinum, and palladium [1][1] Group 2 - Starting Thursday, Bloomberg Commodity Index will adjust the weights of various commodities, which may lead passive tracking funds to sell some contracts to align with the new weight configurations [2] - Longjiang Securities noted that due to the previous significant rise in precious metals, there is an expectation of some contract sell-offs, although the overall trend of increasing allocation remains unchanged [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - In 2025, precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum experienced significant price increases, with gold reaching a historical high of $4500 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of approximately 4% in 2026 [1] - Silver peaked at $82 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 12% in 2026, while platinum saw a rise of over 10% [1] - The strong performance of precious metals in early 2026 is driven by expectations of loose U.S. fiscal and monetary policies and concerns over trade and geopolitical risks, leading to increased investments in precious metals ETFs and derivatives [1] Group 2: Currency and Investment Shifts - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, highlighted a significant paradigm shift in 2025 regarding currency value and global asset allocation, with gold emerging as a major reserve currency [2] - The depreciation of currency has diminished purchasing power, making holding U.S. dollars and bonds less attractive for investors who do not hedge against currency risks [2] - Historical analysis indicates that the current gold bull market has not yet reached excessive levels, with potential for long-term price increases supported by the expanding U.S. debt [2] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's price increase is significantly influenced by substantial investments through ETFs and physical deliveries, with tight inventory conditions persisting [3] - Analysts suggest that as short-term factors affecting market sentiment dissipate, attention should shift to potential passive reductions in global commodity indices [3] - The spillover effects of the gold bull market could benefit silver and copper, which are essential materials in the AI industry, indicating potential for price increases [3]

Group 1 - Spot gold has fallen below $4,450 per ounce, with spot silver dropping over 3%, spot platinum declining more than 7%, and spot palladium decreasing over 5% [1] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for an annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which will force passive funds to execute "technical selling" [1] - The expected futures selling pressure is projected to account for 9% of total silver holdings and 3% of total gold holdings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South African rand's appreciation and soaring metal prices have driven the market capitalization of the South African benchmark stock index to its highest level since 2019, surpassing $500 billion [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index's market capitalization has exceeded $500 billion, surpassing that of countries like Norway, Malaysia, and Turkey from the previous year [1] - The Johannesburg stock market rose by 38% last year, marking its best annual performance since 2005, with precious metals and mining stocks leading the gains [1] - The index has increased by over 2% this year, continuing its upward trend alongside the appreciation of the rand [1] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The South African rand appreciated by 14% against the US dollar, which expanded the index's gains to 57% when measured in dollars [1] - The rand reached a three-year high of 16.31 rand per dollar, driven by rising gold prices [1] - BlackRock's International Thematic Investment Head, Evy Hambro, indicated that commodities may continue to support the stock market, with gold prices expected to maintain their upward momentum as purchasing power weakens [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Report Date: January 7, 2026 - Research Team: Li Liqin, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - For non - ferrous metals, which are trending upwards, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended [2]. - For the black series, which are experiencing significant fluctuations, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, which are rebounding, a bull spread portfolio strategy is suggested [2]. Group 4: Market Overview Futures Market - Copper (CU2602) closed at 104,600, up 1,300 (1.26%) with a trading volume of 29.10 million hands and an open interest of 22.36 million hands [3]. - Aluminum (AL2602) closed at 24,695, up 620 (2.58%) with a trading volume of 55.17 million hands and an open interest of 25.31 million hands [3]. - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also had their respective price changes, trading volumes, and open interest as detailed in the report [3]. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR: Different metals had varying volume and open - interest PCR values, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying and potential turning points [4]. - Pressure and Support Levels: Pressure and support levels were identified for each metal option based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. - Implied Volatility: Implied volatility data for each metal option were presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a positive delta, and a spot collar strategy are suggested [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta and a spot collar strategy are recommended [9]. - **Nickel**: A bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta, and a spot covered - call strategy are suggested [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are recommended [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a long - delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [11]. Precious Metals - **Silver**: A short - volatility option seller's portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [12]. Black Series - **Rebar**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a short - delta and a spot covered - call strategy are suggested [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: Strategies such as short - volatility strategies and spot hedging strategies are recommended according to their respective market conditions [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy with a neutral delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are suggested [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility option portfolio strategy and a spot long - collar strategy are recommended [15].

1月7日，A股三大指数早盘震荡拉升，截至午盘，沪指逼近4100点，创业板上涨0.41%，深成指上涨0.35%。沪深两市半日成交额1.85万亿 元，较上个交易日放量538亿元。全市场超过2500只个股上涨。 港股方面，恒生指数、恒生国企指数震荡走低，截至11:30，两大指数均跌近1%，恒生科技指数下挫1.5%。阿里巴巴跌近4%，比亚迪 （002594）股份、快手跌超2%，药明康德（603259）、中国人寿（601628）、信达生物逆势涨超3%。 国际贵金属集体飘绿，现货黄金跌破4480美元/盎司，早盘一度触及4500美元/盎司；现货白银小幅下跌，年初至今涨幅仍高达13%。 具体来看，半导体产业链全线走强，光刻机、存储器方向领涨。芯源微、南大光电（300346）、恒坤新材20CM涨停，国风新材（000859） 3天2板，中微公司、北方华创（002371）大涨续创历史新高。 | ( | | 半导体指数(886063) | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8181.14 175.89 +2.20% | | | | 资料 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 investment outlook for the A-share market highlights the impact of geopolitical changes and technological innovations, particularly in AI, on capital markets, while addressing potential challenges and opportunities for investors [3][4][31]. Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a bullish trend, with major indices recording their second consecutive year of positive annual K-lines, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high [4][32]. - Historical data indicates that the A-share market has never recorded three consecutive years of positive annual K-lines, raising questions about the potential for a new cycle in 2026 [4][33]. Key Drivers of the Bull Market - The bull market is driven by several core factors, including the government's strong emphasis on the stock market, a prolonged low-interest-rate environment favoring dividend stocks, and the stock market's emergence as a leading asset class with mid-term growth potential [5][34][36]. - The market's dynamics are influenced by both short-term and mid-term variables, with the potential emergence of new long-term cycle variables that may not be immediately recognized by investors [4][33]. Market Consensus and Analysis - The consensus among analysts is that the government is committed to high-quality capital market development, as evidenced by various supportive policies introduced since early 2024 [5][34]. - The low-interest-rate environment has been beneficial for dividend-paying stocks, which have become a core component of long-term investment strategies [5][34]. - The stock market is increasingly viewed as a primary asset class with significant mid-term growth potential, especially as real estate's role in economic growth diminishes [5][34]. Geopolitical and Economic Context - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, are reshaping the investment landscape, with implications for market dynamics and corporate performance [8][39]. - The competition between the US and China is recognized as a critical geopolitical issue, influencing market sentiment and investment strategies [8][39]. Market Valuation and Structural Changes - The valuation framework of the A-share market is undergoing significant changes, with a notable divergence in performance between consumer stocks and technology sector stocks [40]. - The market's valuation adjustments may reflect a broader shift towards innovation-driven growth, necessitating a reevaluation of traditional investment strategies [40][43]. Investment Themes for 2026 - Key investment themes for 2026 include the continued focus on AI and technology innovation, resource commodities like gold, silver, and copper, and the potential for price increases in various sectors due to supply-demand dynamics [22][26][28]. - The performance of innovative pharmaceuticals is also highlighted, with expectations for continued growth driven by successful business development transactions and advancements in drug development [26][27].

Stock Market - The A-share market continued to rise with a volume increase, with Wind All A up by 1.59% and a trading volume of 2.83 trillion yuan [3][9] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains, influenced by geopolitical factors related to Venezuela, while non-bank financials also performed well [3][9] - There was a significant net subscription of 110 billion yuan in broad-based ETFs in December, with nearly 102 billion yuan allocated to A500 ETF, which has a high correlation with the CSI 300 index [3][10] - The CSI 1000 index's revenue growth for Q3 was approximately 2.6% year-on-year, providing strong support for its current valuation [3][10] - The spring market rally may be less intense than in previous years due to the lack of favorable conditions such as liquidity easing and sustained improvement in inflation expectations [3][10] Bond Market - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond contracts saw declines of 0.31%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.05% respectively [4][11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 162 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [4][11] - The money market remains reasonably ample, which is the main support for the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious interest rate cuts pose constraints [4][11][5] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with upward pressure requiring significant inflation recovery and downward pressure needing guidance from interest rate cuts [5][11] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals experienced a slight increase, with silver, platinum, and palladium showing active performance [6][12] - The gold-silver ratio fell to 54.4, and the platinum-palladium price spread rose to approximately 620 USD per ounce [6][12] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate path continue, with some officials suggesting that rates may need to be cut further this year [6][12] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S.-Iran conflicts, are expected to keep gold prices strong, while silver, platinum, and palladium are likely to maintain upward momentum due to solid fundamentals and market sentiment [6][12]