过去很长一段时间，房价上涨几乎成了一种"共识"，无论是一线还是三四线，只要城市还在发展，只要 人口还在流动，房价就被默认会往上走。 很多人到现在还在问一个问题：房价已经跌了这么久，接下来到底是反弹，还是继续往下？ 五六年前，李嘉诚说房地产将迎来一轮大调整，当时被不少人当成"过度保守"；可到了2026年再回头 看，这句话不仅没有过时，反而在逐渐应验。 楼市为什么会走到今天 如果把中国房地产，这二十多年的走势画成一条曲线，它一定不是平滑上升，而是一段长时间加速攀升 后，突然进入的急刹阶段。 正是在这种共识下，买房逐渐从改善居住，变成了一场全民参与的资产配置。 房价之所以能长期上涨，背后依赖的是三股力量的叠加：人口持续流入、城镇化快速推进，以及金融环 境的宽松。 当这三者同时向前推，房价自然水涨船高；但任何一个变量出现变化，结果都会完全不同。 过去几年，这些变化几乎是同时发生的。 人口结构开始转向，出生率下降，很多城市的人口净流入明显放缓，甚至转为流出。 城镇化速度不再像早期那样迅猛，新增住房需求逐年下降；而在金融层面，居民部门的杠杆已经被拉到 一个相当高的位置，再往上加，风险开始显性化。 这时候房地产行业，本身的 ...

"在房地产行业，也需要新的供给来激发新的需求。"住房和城乡建设部原总经济师、中国城市规划学会 理事长杨保军认为，这种新供给主要是城市更新以及已有项目的完善。他举了北京市朝阳区亮马河的例 子，"之前河道建设没有考虑人的多重需要，主要是防洪、排污功能，不吸引人，自然也不愿意靠近。 现在沿岸建筑大门面向河道，因为它有美景，有生气，有人流，这就是一个变化。"(完) 同时，不动产细分市场预期的结构分化特征，在过去一年持续存在。 基于调研结果，该报告建议2026年，在住宅市场方面，应强化需求端支持，重点推动放开限购、提高房 贷抵税幅度、实施房贷贴息等举措，切实降低购房成本、释放合理需求。 第十四届全国政协委员、中国发展研究基金会理事长张军扩也就需求端进行了分析，"消费需求的稳定 增长，取决于消费能力的增强和消费信心的提升，而这既有赖于居民就业状况的显著改善、收入的显著 增加和收入结构的优化，也有赖于居民资产状况的稳定改善和财富效应的持续增强。" 张军扩认为，这很难一蹴而就，需要逐步累积的过程。综合判断，今年消费需求或许会在去年回升基础 上，进一步缓慢回升。 中新网北京1月29日电 29日，2026年中国房地产年度趋势论坛 ...

亚商投顾熊舞老师提醒大家：股市有风险，投资需要多加小心，避免不必要的风险。 一、大盘 1.盘面 上证指数早盘小幅高开，随后窄幅震荡，午后再度小幅震荡，截止收盘，指数上涨0.16%，收出十字线，全天成交额1.49万亿，相比上交易日的1.37万亿， 增加了1200亿。 深证成指早盘小幅低开，随后冲高回落，午后低位震荡，截止收盘，指数下跌0.30%，收出十字线，全天成交额1.74万亿，相比上交易日的1.60万亿，增加 了1400亿。 2.技术分析 图片来源：东方财富 上证指数今日依旧小幅震荡，沿着5日线稳健攀升，整体来看趋势仍属多头主导的温和上行格局；不过从分时图上可清晰观察到黄白线午后再度背离，指数 虽稳如泰山，但个股似乎并没那么乐观，跌多涨少格局再度凸显，赚钱效应持续萎缩，所以近几日大家的体感并不好，多数个股并不跟随指数上涨，反而出 现"赚指数不赚钱"现象。且最近"权重"与"题材"形成了跷跷板效应，资金在权重蓝筹与题材成长之间快速腾挪，导致二者此消彼长、节奏错位；所以操作上 务必严守"高低切换"纪律，避免追高已兑现品种，优先关注低位启动、量价配合良好、且具备业绩支撑的科技细分龙头。 深证成指今日窄幅震荡，小幅收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stabilization of total demand in core cities, along with long-term factors such as rental yield and price-to-income ratio nearing valuation bottoms, collectively determine the direction of the real estate market's recovery in 2026. The pace of this recovery will depend on short-term factors like rental prices and the volume of second-hand housing listings [2][38]. Group 1: Positive Changes in the Real Estate Market - Since the beginning of 2026, the real estate market has shown positive changes in both "volume" and "price." The transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities has increased, with a year-on-year decline in transaction area narrowing to -13.0% as of January 25, compared to -26.8% the previous month. The weekly transaction area reached 2.79 million square meters, the highest since June 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive at 17.7% [4][5]. - In January, the transaction prices of second-hand homes have ended the accelerated decline seen since June 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of only -0.7%, an improvement from the previous half-year's average decline of around -1.3% [9]. Group 2: Short-term Factors Behind Positive Changes - The increase in second-hand home transactions is primarily due to the "seesaw" effect between new and second-hand home demand. As the market enters a stock era, the sales of new and second-hand homes often offset each other. In December 2025, new home sales in 40 cities rebounded, while second-hand home sales remained relatively flat [13]. - The narrowing of price declines is influenced by seasonal factors, with sellers becoming more hesitant to lower prices as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a slowdown in price drops [14]. Group 3: Long-term Support Factors - The cumulative price decline, rental yield, and price-to-income ratio indicate that the real estate market in most cities is nearing valuation bottoms. The total housing demand in core cities has stabilized, suggesting that the market is beginning to meet conditions for recovery [20]. - The total demand for residential properties in key cities has stabilized, with new home sales in 2025 at 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 11.6%. However, this decline is more due to the increased share of second-hand home transactions rather than a decrease in overall housing demand [21]. Group 4: Rental Yield and Price-to-Income Ratio - As of December 2025, the rental yield in 100 cities has risen to 2.39%, approaching the 2.6% public housing loan rate, indicating a reasonable gap between rental yield and borrowing costs [31]. - The price-to-income ratio has shifted significantly during this downturn, with many properties transitioning from investment assets to consumer goods. The price-to-income ratio in most cities has returned to levels below those seen in 2006, indicating a reduction in valuation bubbles [35][36]. Group 5: Market Recovery Dynamics - The stabilization of total demand in core cities and the nearing of valuation bottoms for rental yield and price-to-income ratio will influence the pace of the real estate market's recovery. The rental prices and the volume of second-hand home listings will be critical short-term factors [38][43]. - The upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period will be a key window for assessing the market's recovery pace, with optimistic scenarios suggesting stable rental prices and second-hand home listings, while conservative scenarios may see renewed pressure from increased listings [44][45].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 141.18 points, an increase of 0.51%, closing at 27,968.09 points with a total turnover of HKD 331.994 billion [1] - The National Enterprises Index increased by 40.34 points, closing at 9,552.58 points, a rise of 0.42% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 59.06 points, closing at 5,841.1 points, a decline of 1% [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings increased by 0.16%, closing at HKD 622 [1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing rose by 1.14%, closing at HKD 444.2 [1] - China Mobile remained unchanged, closing at HKD 80.9 [1] - HSBC Holdings increased by 0.07%, closing at HKD 137.6 [1] Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings rose by 1.47%, closing at HKD 46.88 [1] - Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased by 0.08%, closing at HKD 124.6 [1] - Henderson Land Development increased by 1.34%, closing at HKD 31.74 [1] Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China rose by 1.93%, closing at HKD 4.76 [1] - China Construction Bank increased by 1.62%, closing at HKD 8.16 [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose by 0.76%, closing at HKD 6.64 [1] - Ping An Insurance increased by 3.31%, closing at HKD 73.3 [1] - China Life Insurance rose by 0.97%, closing at HKD 35.52 [1] Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation remained unchanged, closing at HKD 5.45 [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation rose by 1.51%, closing at HKD 9.39 [1] - CNOOC Limited increased by 1.3%, closing at HKD 24.98 [1]

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | 本报告导读： 1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权 事项的议案》，这将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，增强可持续发展能力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。1 月 27 日，公司审议通过了《关于开展商业不 动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。我们认为，这 将进一步构筑公司不动产经营能力，优化资本结构，增强可持续发 展能力。我们预计 25 年 EPS 为 0.09 元和 BPS 为 16.59 元，参考 PB 估 ...

随着去年底出台的北京楼市新政显效，二手房成交量有所上涨，二手房挂牌量也出现新变化。券商中国记 者多方采访了解到，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量明显回落，近一个月减少了6000多套，较市场最高点 的16万套更是减少超过2万套。 业内人士认为，近期北京二手房挂牌量有所回落，一定程度表明业主预期出现积极变化，市场筑底信号初显。 预计春节后北京二手房市场或出现温和复苏态势，2026年北京房地产市场整体将呈现"震荡筑底、结构性回 暖"的运行态势。 近2个月挂牌量明显回落 "最近二手房成交量多了，导致挂牌量下降了。"某头部中介北京通州区门店的工作人员告诉记者，价格低点的 房子都卖出去了，现在成交价不会像之前那样一套比一套低，谈价比较困难了。有部分业主觉得现在价格低于 心理价位太多，选择主动下架房源，还有部分业主选择把房子出租。 北京东城区、丰台区、海淀区等多家中介门店的工作人员均对记者表达了类似的观点。 中原地产首席分析师张大伟对记者表示，最近两个月，北京二手房挂牌量确实回落了。据他统计，截至2026年 1月28日，北京整个市场二手房挂牌量约14万套，较2025年12月的14.6万套减少了6000多套，距离2025年8月份 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company to be between -820 million yuan and -750 million yuan for 2025, with basic earnings per share ranging from -1.7615 yuan to -1.6111 yuan [1] - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -531.4454 million yuan, with basic earnings per share of -1.1416 yuan [1] - The company is facing challenges due to a continuous decline in project sales prices in the real estate sector and changes in the trade market [1] Group 2 - The company plans to recognize asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses totaling approximately 460 million to 510 million yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit attributable to shareholders by about 440 million to 490 million yuan [1] - The impairment testing procedures are ongoing, and the final amount of these impairment losses will be determined after evaluation by the auditing and assessment agencies hired by the company [1]

驱动这些板块上涨的逻辑，核心在于"预期修复"和"高低切换"。一方面，市场对于春节前的消费旺季抱 有期待，白酒板块的备货行情提前启动，叠加可能进一步落地的"以旧换新"等消费刺激政策，给了资金 做多的理由。另一方面，房地产板块在经历了长期深度调整后，筹码结构已经相对出清，部分政策边际 改善的传闻（如月度数据上报要求调整）便足以引发超跌反弹。 今天是2026年1月29日，市场走出了极为分化的行情，相信很多朋友手中的持仓也是冰火两重天。我们 来一起拆解一下盘面，看看资金究竟在流向何方。 先看整体概览。今日A股三大指数涨跌不一，上证指数顽强收红，微涨0.16%，报4157.98点；而深证成 指和创业板指分别下跌0.3%和0.57%。最引人注目的是科创50指数，全天大跌3.03%，收于1507.64点。 两市成交额显著放大，达到了3.23万亿元，环比增加了超过2600亿元。港股方面相对平稳，恒生指数微 涨0.2%，但恒生科技指数下跌1.41%。 这种"沪强深弱"、主板与科创严重分化的格局，清晰地揭示了当前市场的资金偏好和情绪主线。 从行业板块来看，今天的涨幅榜几乎被传统蓝筹和顺周期板块包揽。食品饮料板块一骑绝尘，暴涨 6 ...

南财智讯1月29日电，三木集团发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为-75,000万元至-82,000万元，即净亏损7.50亿元—8.20亿元；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣 除非经常性损益的净利润为-72,000万元至-80,000万元。2025年度公司整体业绩下滑主要原因为：由于 报告期内公司受房地产行业项目销售价格持续下行因素及贸易行业市场变化等影响，公司做出如下风险 提示：公司根据会计准则要求对各项资产进行减值测试，拟计提资产减值损失及信用减值损失累计约 46,000万元至51,000万元，预计减少归属于上市公司股东净利润约44,000万元至49,000万元。相关减值测 试程序仍在持续进行中，上述各项减值损失计提的最终金额仍存在不确定性，将由公司聘请的审计机构 及评估机构进行评审后确定。 ...