有色金属日报 2025-9-17 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美国零售销售数据好于预期，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜收跌 0.71%至 10117 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约 收至 80900 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 铜库存减少 1675 至 150950 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 10.5%， Cash/3M 贴水 59.3 美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上期所铜仓单增加 0.3 ...

Meeting Details - The shareholder meeting was held on September 16, 2025, at 14:30 [3] - The meeting combined on-site voting and online voting [6] - A total of 505 shareholders participated, representing 1,390,303,662 shares, which is 37.1977% of the total shares [7] Voting Results - Proposal 1: Approval for the company to register and issue short-term financing bonds up to RMB 3 billion, with 99.4194% votes in favor [13][14] - Proposal 2: Reappointment of Zhongshun Zhonghuan Accounting Firm for the 2025 financial audit, with 99.4578% votes in favor [15][16] Legal Opinions - The legal opinion was provided by Beijing Zhonglun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, confirming that the meeting procedures complied with legal regulations and the company's articles of association [17][18]

Group 1 - The company announced that it has no overdue guarantees [2] - There are no guarantees related to lawsuits or any amounts that the company would need to pay due to losing a lawsuit [2] - The company and its subsidiaries do not provide guarantees to entities outside the consolidated financial statements [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated higher. Macro - factors such as progress in Sino - US negotiations and expected Fed rate cuts contributed to a positive market sentiment. However, domestic demand was weak, and there was a divergence between bulls and bears. Although there was a high probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, the market was concerned about whether it would be a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" situation. Considering policy expectations and the peak demand season, copper prices could still rise [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Short - term alumina maintenance capacity returned, and raw material inventory decreased. Due to reduced ore shipments during the rainy season, ore prices rose, and the decline space of alumina was limited. Aluminum ingots showed narrow de - stocking during the week, and with the cancellation of tax rebates, scrap aluminum prices were supported. Aluminum alloy followed the upward trend of aluminum [1][2]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. LME nickel inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable, and the price of low - grade laterite nickel ore decreased slightly. Stainless steel weekly inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply was relatively tight. Under the influence of macro - sentiment and supply disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices rose rapidly and faced correction pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro - factors were positive, but domestic demand was weak. LME inventory decreased by 1325 tons to 152625 tons, Comex inventory increased by 592 tons to 281669 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 0.99 million tons to 15.42 million tons. Downstream procurement was weak, but scrap copper substitution was beneficial. The market sentiment shifted, and copper prices turned from weak to strong. However, due to the uncertainty of the Fed rate cut impact, volatility was expected to increase around the time of the rate - cut decision [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2601) closed at 3009 yuan/ton with a 2.84% increase, and its position increased by 7317 lots to 284,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum (AL2510) closed at 21060 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and its position decreased by 4743 lots to 178,000 lots. Aluminum alloy (AD2511) closed at 20535 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase, and its position decreased by 7 lots to 8528 lots. SMM alumina prices fell to 3065 yuan/ton, and aluminum ingot spot discounts widened [1]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: LME nickel rose 0.29% to 15425 dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 122310 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons to 224484 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons to 24959 tons. Nickel ore prices were stable, stainless steel inventory decreased, but supply increased. In the new energy sector, ternary demand weakened slightly, and MHP supply was tight. Nickel prices faced correction pressure after a rapid rise [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the price of flat - water copper rose by 175 yuan/ton to 80910 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 100 yuan/ton to 74200 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1325 tons, and domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.7 million tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 180 yuan/ton to 17040 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 3950 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 68 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On September 15, 2025, compared with September 12, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20930 yuan/ton, and the South China price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 20900 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventory (LME + SHFE) increased by 4421 tons, and alumina social inventory decreased by 1.0 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 150 yuan/ton to 124150 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 600 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1430 tons. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose by 0.1% to 22305 yuan/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.55 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price rose by 0.4% to 273890 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons, and domestic warehouse receipts increased by 76 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than ten years of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles, and been interviewed by multiple media [50]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry and the new energy industry chain [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and tracks the new energy industry chain [51].

Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is a non - rated research on the non - ferrous metals industry, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The fundamentals remained resilient, with an increase in imported copper arrivals but no accumulation of domestic social inventories. Downstream开工 decreased, and they were in the stage of consuming finished - product inventories. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, but the rigid purchasing ability was still good. Macroscopically, copper benefited from the global fiscal and monetary double - easing, and the overseas interest - rate cut expectation was further priced in. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the third and fourth quarters. If the short - term positive factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to July. Downstream开工 improved, with stable production schedules for photovoltaic modules, but overseas demand declined significantly. In September, inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory pattern, hold positions on dips and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC increased further. In September, due to concentrated maintenance, smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Overseas, the quarterly mine - end increment exceeded expectations, and China's zinc ore imports in July exceeded 500,000 tons, the highest in the past three years. Domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand was average, and some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees. Domestic social inventories continued to rise, while overseas LME inventories decreased, mainly flowing to Europe and the United States. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is about 1,000 - 1,200 yuan/ton away from opening. In terms of strategy, short - term unilateral positions can be used as a short - side allocation, and internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [2] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level. Demand was generally weak, and the premium was stable recently. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and overseas warehouse receipts increased. The short - term fundamentals were weak, and the macro - level anti - involution sentiment rebounded. The Indonesian parade subsided, but it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, and follow - up attention is needed [3][4] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mills in the north are expected to resume production gradually due to the military parade. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the price of nickel iron remained stable, and the price of chrome iron increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The fundamentals remained generally weak, and the short - term macro - level followed the anti - involution expectation. The Indonesian parade subsided, and it was reported that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau took over part of the world's largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel [6] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year - on - year; the expansion of recycling plants led to a general shortage of waste batteries, and recycled lead maintained low - level operation under low profits. Demand had no obvious boost, and recyclers sold in small quantities; from April to August, the concentrate operation increased, but the smelting profit led to a supply shortage, and the TC quotation declined in a chaotic manner. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of batteries was high, the battery operation rate increased this week, but the market was not prosperous in the peak season. The refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and there was an expectation of supply shortage. The LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10,000 tons. In September, the market had expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking intensity of terminal consumption and the purchasing intensity of lead ingots were both weak this week. The willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited intensity. The exchange inventory reached a historical high of nearly 70,000 tons. In August, the primary supply was flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production reduction and resumption of recycled lead occurred, and the supply is expected to be flat. The price rebound improved the recycled lead sales, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25, and the lead ingot spot was at a discount of 20. Demand improved slightly, but the inventory was at a high level, and battery factories controlled production. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan [7][18] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee at the mine end was at a low level, and some domestic smelters reduced production. Yunnan Tin started maintenance at the beginning of September for about 45 days. Overseas, the import from Wa State in August was less than 200 metal tons, and the short - term raw material supply was tight, and the output may gradually increase after October; African tin mines have medium - and long - term increments but unstable short - term output; Indonesian exports are expected to resume in mid - to late September. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, the terminal electronic consumption had expectations of a peak season, but the expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth was strong, and the domestic inventory fluctuated; as Indonesia gradually resumed, the LME inventory rebounded from a low level. At the spot end, there was no obvious improvement in the consumption peak season, and the premium declined slightly. The domestic fundamentals remained in a state of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the phased mismatch in supply in September and the expectation change of a non - prosperous peak season after the supply resumes in October, as well as the impact of interest - rate cut expectations on non - ferrous metals as a whole. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [11] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with 75 furnaces in operation. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have plans to increase production later. In September, the balance is in a balanced state, and the increment space in the southwest at the current price is limited. The core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm in the southwest and Hesheng, the supply and demand will remain in a tight - balance state in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, the operation rate is low, and the price trend is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [12][14] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly in the middle of the week. On the raw material side, due to the obvious de - stocking of lithium mines in the early stage, miners were not willing to sell at low prices. On the lithium salt side, upstream salt factories also had a sentiment of holding up prices, and most scattered orders were pre - sold. In the spot market, the current basis level strengthened slightly, the large - discount goods decreased compared with the previous period, but the market supply was still abundant, and the quotes of new goods mostly fluctuated around par. The current contradiction is that in the context of an unfinished large - scale capacity expansion cycle and a still - surplus static supply - demand pattern, the resource end faces periodic compliance disturbances. In the context of the current seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production reduction has turned to continuous de - stocking, but the de - stocking amplitude is still small compared with the existing inventory level, and the demand performance has a greater impact on the de - stocking amplitude. In the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price elasticity after the speculation of supply - side disturbances is high, and the price support is strong before the disturbances materialize [16]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a collective decline in early trading, with Jiangxi Copper down 4.53% to HKD 25.3, China Aluminum down 4.35% to HKD 7.26, Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.87% to HKD 12.41, and Zijin Mining down 3.79% to HKD 28.42 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the US August CPI met expectations, and the weakening job market has led to rising interest rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - Citic Securities indicated that industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Fed entering a rate cut cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels, suggesting improved demand due to China's economic recovery and the new energy sector [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Aluminum: With macro - level interest rate cut expectations and support from the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be mainly strong in the near term, with strengthened downside support. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting this week [9]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. With interest rate cut expectations and the "Golden September and Silver October" season, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. However, medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on the upside [11]. - Tin: In the short term, the tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 01. Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 81,060, up 920 (1.15%) from September 5. The average price of copper in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 80,990, up 1,025 (1.28%) [7]. - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 21,120, up 425 (2.05%) from September 5. The average price of A00 aluminum in the non - ferrous market was 21,050, up 370 (1.79%) [7]. - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 22,305, up 150 (0.68%) from September 5. The price of zinc ingots was 22,236, up 430 (1.97%) [7]. - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 273,950, up 1,490 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of tin in Shanghai Wumaomarket was 273,250, up 1,000 (0.37%) [7]. - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on September 12, 2025, was 121,980, up 670 (0.55%) from September 5. The average price of 1 nickel was 123,430, up 1,390 (1.14%) [7]. 02. This Week's Colorful Market Forecast - **Aluminum** - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices were strong. Macroeconomic factors such as a surge in US initial jobless claims and moderate inflation increase may lead the Fed to restart interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, the industry's start - up rate increased slightly, the aluminum - water ratio is expected to rise slightly, the cost is stable, and downstream demand is recovering. As of September 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 637,000 tons, and the de - stocking inflection point needs further observation [9]. - View: Expected to be mainly strong in the near term [9]. - **Zinc** - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated. The SMM Zn50 weekly TC average price decreased, and domestic zinc mine production profits were compressed. Smelters have strong production enthusiasm due to high profits. The galvanizing start - up rate increased, and zinc ingot inventories increased. The domestic consumption lacks obvious "peak season" characteristics [10]. - View: Expected to fluctuate in the short term, with medium - to long - term supply pressure [11]. - **Tin** - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Myanmar's tin production progress is slow. Supply shortages in Yunnan and Jiangxi have led to a decline in smelter start - up rates. Downstream demand is average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [13]. - View: Short - term weak supply and demand [13]. 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite** - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan was 650 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, up 10 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year; the average price of imported bauxite index was 75.48 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 week - on - week and 1.13 year - on - year [17]. - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of September 12 was 4254,500 tons, up 858,700 week - on - week and 1,310,700 year - on - year; the departure volume was 4673,100 tons, up 1,038,000 week - on - week and 1,462,300 year - on - year [20]. - **Alumina** - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3,060 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 80 week - on - week and 905 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,902 yuan/ton, up 0.8 week - on - week and 41.3 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 43.39 yuan/ton, down 89.49 week - on - week and 1,026.97 year - on - year [23]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Cost and price difference: The total cost was 16,427.69 yuan/ton in the week of September 12, down 143.57 week - on - week and 1,139.54 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 week - on - week and 30 year - on - year [25]. - Start - up rate: The start - up rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy showed different changes in the week of September 11 [29][30]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai was 69,500 tons in the week of September 11, down 5,600 week - on - week and up 33,200 year - on - year; the total bonded area inventory was 92,500 tons, down 3,600 week - on - week and up 46,000 year - on - year; the social inventory was 637,000 tons in the week of September 15, up 6,000 week - on - week and down 111,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 107,600 tons, down 13,800 week - on - week and up 3,900 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory was 128,499 tons in the week of September 12, up 4,421 week - on - week and down 150,672 year - on - year; the LME inventory was 485,275 tons in the week of September 11, up 600 week - on - week and down 339,075 year - on - year [35][36]. - Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum in different periods and regions showed different changes in the week of September 12 [41][44]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [45]. Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate** - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 72 week - on - week and down 3,784 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,850 yuan/metal ton, down 50 week - on - week and up 2,400 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was 98.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.5 week - on - week [52]. - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3,878 yuan/metal ton in the week of September 12, up 218 week - on - week and down 3,376 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 2,149.17 yuan/ton, down 560.21 week - on - week and down 2,627.64 year - on - year; the import zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang was 160,000 physical tons, up 30,000 week - on - week and up 130,000 year - on - year [55]. - **Refined Zinc** - Inventory: The zinc ingot social inventory in SMM's seven regions was 160,600 tons in the week of September 15, up 8,500 week - on - week and up 46,100 year - on - year; the zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons in the week of September 11, unchanged week - on - week and up 2,500 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 94,649 tons in the week of September 12, up 7,617 week - on - week and up 9,037 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 50,525 tons in the week of September 11, down 3,525 week - on - week and down 181,900 year - on - year [58]. - **Galvanizing** - Production, start - up rate, and inventory: The production in the week of September 11 was 332,345 tons, up 43,245 week - on - week and down 10,010 year - on - year; the start - up rate was 56.06%, up 5.98 week - on - week and down 1.68 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 13,860 tons, up 1,190 week - on - week and up 1,270 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 375,700 tons, down 21,200 week - on - week and down 56,500 year - on - year [61]. - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread** - Basis: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [64]. - Monthly spread: The monthly spread of Shanghai Zinc in different periods showed different changes in the week of September 12 [68]. Tin - **Refined Tin** - Production and start - up rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 0.138 million tons in the week of September 12, down 0.1 week - on - week and down 0.0375 year - on - year; the combined start - up rate was 28.48%, down 20.63 week - on - week and down 7.74 year - on - year [73]. - **Tin Ingot** - Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot total inventory was 7,897 tons in the week of September 12, up 124 week - on - week and down 1,602 year - on - year; the Chinese regional tin ingot social inventory was 9,389 tons, up 108 week - on - week and down 1,419 year - on - year [76]. - **Tin Concentrate** - Processing fee: The processing fees of tin concentrate in different regions and grades were flat week - on - week and down year - on - year in the week of September 12 [78]. - Import profit and loss: The import profit and loss level of tin ore was 8,842.8 yuan/ton in the week of September 11, down 14,028.26 week - on - week and down 7,146.94 year - on - year [79]. - **Spot** - Average price: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions increased week - on - week and year - on - year in the week of September 12 [84].

Group 1 - The company Silver Nonferrous Metals has been involved in a legal investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, which may lead to potential claims from affected investors [3] - The company reported a significant expected net loss for the first half of 2025, estimated between -180 million to -270 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 12.34 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5] - The anticipated loss is attributed to a combination of market price increases for nonferrous metal products and internal management improvements, but is heavily impacted by a legal dispute involving its subsidiary Shanghai Honglu International Trade Co., which has led to a provision for expected liabilities of approximately 314 million yuan [5] Group 2 - As of September 12, the company had a margin trading balance of 7.82 million yuan, with a margin sell-off of 236,200 shares and a margin repayment of 150,400 shares [2] - The company's paid-in capital stands at 4.926 billion yuan, and it completed a targeted issuance in 2019 amounting to 679 million yuan [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in Q3 and Q4 this year. If short - term bullish factors are realized and the price corrects, mid - term long positions can be considered below 79,500 yuan, or put options below 78,000 yuan can be sold [1]. - For aluminum, with a small increase in supply and improved downstream开工, 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. Hold at low prices in a low - inventory pattern and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse hedging [1]. - Zinc prices are in a narrow range this week. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate. Short - term unilateral can be used as a short position, and internal - external positive hedging can continue to be held [2]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated. Continue to pay attention to the news that the Indonesian Forestry Bureau has taken over part of the world's largest nickel mine [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. The short - term macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and pay attention to the news of the Indonesian nickel mine [6]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,200 yuan. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level [7]. - Tin prices are in wide - range fluctuations this week. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand. Short - term observation is recommended, and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [9]. - For industrial silicon, 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom anchored by seasonal marginal costs [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely this week. Before the supply - side disturbance is realized, the price support is strong during the peak season [15]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated widely around 80,000 yuan and broke through on Thursday and Friday. The domestic social inventory did not accumulate, and downstream开工 decreased month - on - month. The domestic spot premium declined slightly, and the internal - external positive hedging has room [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, downstream开工 improved, overseas demand declined significantly, and 9 - month inventory is expected to decline. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and pay attention to demand [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Domestic production TC decreased slightly, and imported TC increased. 9 - month smelting output decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestic social inventory continued to rise, and overseas LME inventory decreased. The current internal - weak and external - strong pattern may further differentiate [2]. Nickel - Supply remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased due to warehouse delivery. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the geopolitical risk has been alleviated [3][4]. Stainless Steel - Supply is expected to resume gradually, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is maintained. Fundamentals are weak, and follow the anti - involution expectation in the short - term [6]. Lead - Lead prices rose due to macro - factors this week. Supply is expected to be tight, demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly next week [7]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is short - term tight, demand has limited elasticity, and domestic inventory fluctuates. The short - term domestic fundamentals are in a situation of dual weakness in supply and demand [9]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. 9 and 10 - month supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. In the long - term, prices are expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely this week. Affected by the expectation of CATL's resumption of production, the futures price dropped significantly. The current contradiction lies in the supply - side disturbance under the background of over - capacity [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report on September 15, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Copper - Last week, the copper price strengthened. LME copper rose 2.02% to $10,064/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,810 yuan/ton. The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 12,000 tons, with SHFE inventory up 12,000 to 94,000 tons, LME inventory down 4,000 to 154,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 5,000 to 282,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 4,000 tons. The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for SHFE copper is 79,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,800 - $10,300/ton [2] Group 3: Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price continued to be strong. LME aluminum rose 0.82% to $2,701/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,075 yuan/ton. The inventory of domestic three - place aluminum ingots decreased by 5,500 tons to 462,000 tons. The aluminum price is expected to continue to run strongly. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 20,900 - 21,250 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,660 - $2,730/ton [4] Group 4: Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.85% to 17,043 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,000.5/ton. The lead concentrate TC declined again, the raw materials were in short supply. The production of primary and secondary lead increased year - on - year. The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term [5] Group 5: Zinc - Last Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.29% to 22,318 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,913/ton. The zinc concentrate TC showed differentiation. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased, and the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory decreased. The zinc price is expected to run strongly in the short term [6][7] Group 6: Tin - Last week, the tin price rebounded. The supply decreased significantly due to slow复产 in Myanmar and raw material shortages in domestic smelters. The demand improved marginally with the arrival of the traditional peak season. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Group 7: Nickel - The nickel ore price was stable. The nickel iron price was strong. The refined nickel price oscillated, with the inventory increasing. In the short term, the nickel price may decline, but in the long term, it has support. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [9][12] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.29% last week. The lithium price was suppressed by pessimistic sentiment and loose expectations. The domestic lithium carbonate is expected to continue destocking, which may support the bottom price. The reference range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,900 - 73,300 yuan/ton [14] Group 9: Alumina - On September 12, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.05% to 2,915 yuan/ton. The import window opened. The short - term strategy is to wait and see. The reference range for the main contract AO2601 is 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [16] Group 10: Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased. The raw material cost increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy - As of Friday, the AD2511 contract rose 0.83% to 20,645 yuan/ton. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high in the short term [21]