Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials have led more Fed officials to support interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00. The inventory remained unchanged at 53,226.00 (in ten grams) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 3,677.60 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 220,410.00 and an open interest of 385,580.00. The inventory was 39,180,931.12 (in gold ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 3,632.65 US dollars/ounce [1] - **SPDR Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 979.95 tons [1] - **iShare Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 464.57 tons [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 43.19 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 63,715.00 and an open interest of 134,910.00. The inventory was 518,898,317.13 (in silver ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 42.69 US dollars/ounce [1] - **US iShare Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 15,137.37 tons [1] - **TPSLV Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 6,129.64 tons [1] Important Information - Milan has been confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in this week's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook is allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision [1] - US House Republicans proposed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but ignored the Democrats' healthcare requirements. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [1] Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors about multiple gold merchants in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area going bankrupt and closing operations have caused concern among industry participants and investors, but investigations reveal that most businesses are operating normally [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Situation - Reports indicated that over ten gold merchants in Shui Bei suddenly closed, affecting more than a hundred downstream wholesale merchants who are struggling to recover pre-paid funds [1]. - A visit to the Shui Bei gold market showed bustling activity, with most merchants, including those listed in the rumors, continuing normal operations, except for a few like Yue Bao Xin, which has temporarily ceased operations [1][2]. Group 2: Company Specifics - Yue Bao Xin, a smaller company in the Shui Bei area, was found to have its premises sealed by property management, indicating a localized issue rather than a widespread industry crisis [1]. - The Shenzhen Gold and Jewelry Association confirmed that the majority of businesses mentioned in the rumors are still operating normally and that the situation has been exaggerated online [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The association stated that law enforcement is involved in addressing issues with specific companies, and affected merchants are encouraged to pursue legal avenues for recourse [2]. - Investors are advised to rely on verified information and make informed decisions regarding precious metal investments, acknowledging the inherent market risks [2].

Core Insights - The precious metals market saw significant gains on Monday, with gold and silver performing particularly well [1] - Spot gold rose by 1.04% to $3681.17 per ounce, breaking the previous historical high set on September 9 [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.93% to $3720.70 per ounce, also surpassing the prior intraday record [1] Gold Market - Spot gold traded at a daily low of around $3640 before climbing to $3685.64 [1] - The trading range for COMEX gold futures was between $3662.80 and $3724.90 [1] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index closed up 1.78%, reaching a new closing high of 277.84 points [1] Silver Market - Spot silver increased by 1.31% to $42.7390 per ounce, approaching the 2011 peaks of $44.2175 and $49.8044 [1] - COMEX silver futures for December rose by 0.92% to $43.225 per ounce [1] Other Precious Metals - COMEX copper futures for December rose by 1.53% to $4.2180 per pound [1] - Spot platinum increased by 0.74% to $1407.25 per ounce, while spot palladium decreased by 0.48% to $1194.62 per ounce [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the weakening of the US employment market in August and relatively controllable inflation pressure in August, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September hit a new low since May, which supports the market to continue trading the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and boosts the strong rise of precious metal prices. Concerns about US economic stagflation are rising, boosting the industrial properties of silver. Before the interest - rate cut in September, precious metal prices are still supported and expected to remain strong at high levels, but volatility may intensify. Key events to watch this week include the Fed's August FOMC meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [6]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization wave with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Tracking - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3650.31/ounce, London silver spot rose 2.4% to $42.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.5% to $3688.50/ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.6% to $42.60/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.4% to 834.22 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 2.4% to 10035 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.4% to 830.68 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.5% to 10010 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, from September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 7.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 10.7%, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 31.8%, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 0.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the AU2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 20.4%, and the AG2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 13.0% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.32% to 974.8 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 15069.6026 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 2.87% to 324875 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.72% to 63135 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 4.89% to 261740 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.71% to 72450 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.16% to 18513 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 3.55% to 53937 contracts [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.58% to 52950 kg, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.51% to 1246569 kg, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 38914491 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.55% to 527423230 troy ounces [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.09%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.14% to 3.56%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.25% to 4.06%, the VIX increased by 0.34%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05% to 6584.29, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.58% to $62.60 [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On September 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.1% to 80.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.36% to 10035 yuan/kg [5].

Core Insights - The global gold spot market is experiencing explosive growth in 2025, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and escalating geopolitical risks, with gold prices surpassing $3,674 per ounce in early September, marking a 38% increase year-to-date [1] - The Asian market is particularly notable, with gold futures trading volume in the Asian session exceeding one-third of the total, and daily trading volume of micro gold futures contracts increasing fivefold compared to two years ago, indicating a significant rise in retail investor participation [1] Market Data - In China, the total transaction value of all gold varieties reached 10.70 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.85%, while domestic gold ETF holdings surged by 327.73% [3] - Central banks are on a gold-buying spree, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, and global central bank purchases expected to remain between 900-950 tons in 2025 [4] Trading Platform Requirements - As the influence of the Asian trading session grows, investors' demands for gold trading platforms are evolving, necessitating three core standards: easy verification of regulatory qualifications, system stability for order execution during high volatility, and comprehensive risk management tools [3] Compliance and Security - Jinsheng Precious Metals meets the core requirements of a compliant gold trading platform, being an AA class member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, with transparent trading processes and independent transaction codes for trades over 0.1 lots [6] - The platform implements a "funds separation custody" system, ensuring client funds are stored separately from operational funds, and offers a rapid two-hour withdrawal service, significantly faster than the industry average [7] Investment Guidelines for New Investors - New investors are advised to verify platform regulatory qualifications, test small transaction processes, and learn basic trading rules to avoid scams [8] - It is emphasized that with gold prices at historical highs, there is no possibility of "guaranteed high returns," and investors should establish rational expectations and utilize regulated trading platforms [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in global gold prices, reaching historical highs, raises questions about whether it is a suitable time to invest in gold, with various factors contributing to this trend [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global gold prices, including domestic physical gold, futures, and international London gold, are consistently hitting historical highs, with Hong Kong's gold trading volume also reaching record levels [1]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, moving from a 25 basis point reduction to a 50 basis point reduction, have provided strong support for gold prices [1]. - The weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has driven investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Central Bank Actions - Persistent global inflation, economic contraction, and currency depreciation are underlying factors supporting the long-term rise in gold prices, with central banks worldwide, including China's, continuously increasing their gold reserves [1]. - The market sentiment indicates that while current conditions favor gold, there is a cautionary note that once positive news is fully priced in, it could lead to a downturn [3]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Market Sentiment - Short-term predictions suggest that gold could reach a pressure point of $3,700 per ounce, but there is a possibility of a technical adjustment thereafter, with a support range between $3,700 and $3,550 [3][4]. - The current market environment is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, as evidenced by recent fluctuations in international gold prices [4].

Group 1 - Recent economic data has been leaning dovish, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle, with significant signals from Powell and a historic downward revision of non-farm employment by 910,000 [1] - The expectation of rate cuts is enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals by suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, leading to a strong performance in silver, which has seen a notable increase due to both gold's rise and a correction in the gold-silver ratio [1] - As of September 12, gold futures rose by 0.58% to $3,694.8 per ounce, while silver increased by 1.37% to $42.730 per ounce, with domestic silver prices breaking the 10,000 yuan per kilogram mark, reaching a historical high [1] Group 2 - The latest data shows that the U.S. August CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with core CPI at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation without deterioration [2] - Initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, signaling a slowdown in the labor market, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week and supports the potential for three cumulative cuts by year-end [2] - Treasury Secretary Becerra is engaging with potential Federal Reserve chair candidates and is advocating for a "organic" approach to reducing the balance sheet, aiming to carefully cut the Fed's substantial bond holdings and lessen economic intervention [2] Group 3 - Precious metals are expected to continue a volatile upward trend in the medium to long term, with short-term gold prices projected to fluctuate between $3,550 and $3,730 per ounce, corresponding to domestic gold prices between 790 and 845 yuan per gram [3] - Silver prices are closely monitored around the $43 per ounce resistance level, with a potential target of $45 per ounce if a breakthrough occurs, translating to approximately 10,150 yuan per kilogram domestically [3] - The suggested strategy is to gradually accumulate positions on dips in the market [3]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Data Interpretation - U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, with August's adjusted monthly CPI at 0.4%, the highest since January, and annual CPI at 2.9%, up from 2.7% [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a potential weakening in the U.S. job market [1] Group 2: Major Asset Price Trends - Gold prices rebounded after initial declines, closing at $3633.75 per ounce, while silver showed stronger performance with a 0.96% increase [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.47, supporting the rebound in precious metals, while U.S. Treasury yields reflected cautious economic outlook [2] Group 3: Energy Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude down 2.28% to $61.73 per barrel, amid concerns over demand [3] Group 4: Global Policy Movements and Market Events - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 2%, adjusting inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating short-term inflation pressures [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by rising jobless claims and stable core PCE inflation [6] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Cooperation - The U.S. and Japan agreed to enhance economic cooperation and maintain discussions on macroeconomic and foreign exchange market dynamics [7] - Switzerland is exploring options to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on its gold industry by potentially establishing local processing facilities [8]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have shown strong performance, rebounding to around $3,646 after a slight decline to $3,632.49, following a record high of $3,674.36 earlier in the week, marking a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and U.S. economic data expectations [1] - The U.S. bond and stock markets have reacted positively, reinforcing the expectation of interest rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a five-month low of 3.994% and closing at 4.015%, while the two-year yield fell to 3.531% [1] - The market anticipates an average inflation rate of 2.4% over the next decade, slightly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, providing a favorable environment for gold as an inflation hedge [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 2.9% year-over-year, the highest in seven months, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [3] - The CPI's month-over-month increase of 0.4% exceeded expectations, and the core CPI remained at a high of 0.3%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures despite signs of economic slowdown [3] - The significant rise in jobless claims and the lower-than-expected non-farm payroll increase of 22,000 jobs highlight a cooling economic momentum, which has overshadowed inflation concerns and supported gold prices [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The consensus in the market indicates a 100% probability of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates and positive outlook on the Eurozone economy has weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [4] - Overall, the gold market demonstrates resilience amid economic data and policy expectations, with soft labor market data, a weaker dollar, and optimistic responses from the bond and stock markets providing solid support for gold prices [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a small entity close, indicating strength, with a potential continuation of upward momentum if the price breaks above $3,660 [7] - Short-term movements suggest a recovery from a high of $3,675, with indications of stability and potential upward movement in the current trading session [7] - Traders are advised to monitor key levels around $3,638/$3,630 for potential long positions, with targets set at $3,660 and $3,690 [7]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a rebound on September 10, opening at $3645.53 per ounce, reaching a high of $3657.50, a low of $3618.74, and closing at $3644.43 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August recorded a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, below the market expectation of 0.3%, and a previous value of 0.7% [2] - The year-on-year PPI for August was 2.6%, also below the market expectation of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.1% [2] - The data indicates a significant reduction in inflationary pressures, leading traders to speculate on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Following the lower-than-expected PPI, market expectations have shifted towards the Federal Reserve initiating a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction in the upcoming meeting [4] - The market is pricing in a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with an 8% chance of a 50 basis point cut [10] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, saw its largest month-on-month decline in a decade [4] Inventory Data - The U.S. wholesale inventory for July increased by 0.1%, revised from a previous value of 0.2%, while durable goods inventories fell by 0.2% [5] - Non-durable goods inventories rose significantly by 0.7%, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals (1.8%), clothing (1.9%), and grocery items (2.0%) [5] - The inventory-to-sales ratio decreased to 1.28 from 1.29 in June, indicating a healthier sales environment [5] Political Developments - The Trump administration is appealing a federal judge's ruling that temporarily blocks the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which could impact the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [6] - The Senate Banking Committee has voted along party lines to support the nomination of Stephen Milan as a short-term Federal Reserve governor, aiming for confirmation before the next interest rate decision [7] Trade and Geopolitical Issues - President Trump has reportedly requested the EU to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India and China as a strategy to pressure Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [8] - Tensions between the U.S. and Israel have surfaced, with Trump expressing disappointment over Israel's actions against Hamas in Qatar, indicating potential strains in U.S.-Israel relations [9]