1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to move upward in an oscillatory manner [2][4] - Attention should be paid to the post - holiday gap - up in silver [2][4] - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to rise [2][9] - An increase in lead inventory restricts price recovery [2][12] - Tin is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory pattern [2][14] - The platinum market may be boosted by news, with positive sentiment [2][21] - Palladium is expected to follow the upward trend [2][21] - Speculative sentiment still exists in Shanghai nickel futures, and continuous attention should be paid to nickel ore contradictions [2][25] - For stainless steel, cost support has shifted upward, but inventory accumulation in the off - season restricts price elasticity [2][25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1151.06, up 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 1153.90, up 0.65%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2602 was 5183.70, up 0.45%. The spot price of London Gold was 5164.31, up 0.63% [4] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 198,537, an increase of 71,634 from the previous day, and the position was 155,075, a decrease of 2,336 [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 105,072 kilograms, with no change from the previous day. The inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces, the day before) was 33,701,164, a decrease of 73,343 [4] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 5.99, with no change from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Gold and selling June Shanghai Gold decreased by 0.87 to 4.77 [4] 3.2 Silver - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23029, up 3.46%, and the night - session closing price was 23365.00, up 4.00%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2602 was 89.860, up 2.43%. The spot price of London Silver was 89.221, up 2.45% [4] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 413,159, an increase of 202,427 from the previous day, and the position was 182,667, an increase of 7,570 [4] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 355,830 kilograms, an increase of 5951 from the previous day. The inventory of Comex Silver (in troy ounces, the day before) was 364,000,164, a decrease of 2,969 [4] - **Spread Data**: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was 841, a decrease of 175 from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying December Shanghai Silver and selling June Shanghai Silver decreased by 11.3 to 73.41 [4] 3.3 Copper - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 102,890, up 1.36%, and the night - session closing price was 103040, up 0.15%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M was 13,350, up 1.17% [9] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 291,554, an increase of 93,583 from the previous day, and the position was 556,155, a decrease of 7,927. The trading volume of LME Copper 3M was 18,795, a decrease of 6,860, and the position was 321,000, an increase of 4,315 [9] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 287,806, an increase of 10,717 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 249,650, an increase of 6,475, and the注销仓单 ratio was 5.02%, an increase of 0.52% [9] - **Spread Data**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 85.04, a decrease of 1.44 from the previous day. The spread between the spot and the near - month futures contract was - 180, a decrease of 430 [9] - **News**: In December 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2506 million tons, with consumption of 2.1526 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 98,000 tons. Uganda plans to connect a new railway to Tanzania's railway, which will open a new export channel for minerals such as copper. Hudbay Minerals has received approval to expand its Copper Mountain mine [9][11] 3.4 Lead - **Price Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16735, up 0.39%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M was 1959.5, up 0.38% [12] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 67705, an increase of 12420 from the previous day. The trading volume of LME Lead was 6359, an increase of 3009. The position of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 71996, an increase of 2284, and the position of LME Lead was 173292, an increase of 3619 [12] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead futures was 59323 tons, an increase of 946 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Lead was 286300 tons, a decrease of 25 [12] - **News**: Investors bet that NVIDIA's strong performance will reignite the enthusiasm for AI trading, and Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven" housing policies [12] 3.5 Tin - **Price Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 416,160, up 7.62%, and the night - session closing price was 423,990, up 5.77%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M was 53,915, up 7.19% [15] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 173,225, an increase of 99,126 from the previous day, and the position was 18,346, a decrease of 2,692. The trading volume of LME Tin 3M was 884, an increase of 160, and the position was 21,849, an increase of 113 [15] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 11,738, a decrease of 43 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,680, an increase of 25, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [15] - **Spread Data**: The spread between SMM 1 tin ingot and the main futures contract was 19,380, an increase of 26,980 from the previous day [15] - **News**: Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, Zimbabwe banned the export of all raw ores and lithium concentrates, and the G20 finance and central bank deputies' meeting was held [15][16][18] 3.6 Platinum and Palladium - **Price Data**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 586.00, up 7.54%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 457.95, up 6.49% [21] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 11,498 kilograms, an increase of 5,375 from the previous day, and the position was 26,569, an increase of 802. The trading volume of NYMEX Palladium was 18,811 kilograms, a decrease of 2,383, and the position was 42,276, an increase of 29,007 [21] - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Platinum was 1 kilogram (no change), and the inventory of NYMEX Platinum (in troy ounces, the day before) was 578,195, with no change [21] - **Spread Data**: The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 1.98, an increase of 3.79 from the previous day. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying Shanghai Platinum 2606 and selling 2610 increased by 0.42 to 7.21 [21] - **News**: CME Group suspended metal and natural gas futures and options trading due to a "technical problem", and NVIDIA's Q4 earnings were impressive [23][24] 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 141,250, and the closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,245 [25] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 221,614, and the trading volume of the main Stainless Steel contract was 173,978 [25] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,070. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 14,300 [25] - **News**: The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price formula will be revised, and there were various incidents in Indonesian nickel mines and related industries [25][26][27]

【南华观点】特朗普 2026 年第二任期首次国情咨文演讲，不仅是其化解执政危机、为国 会中期选举造势的核心政治动作，更是决定 2026 年全球宏观定价逻辑、大类资产走势与 跨境资本流动的核心风向标，其政策表态直接牵动美元信用、全球贸易体系与金融市场风 险偏好。本次演讲是在特朗普执政多重风险集中爆发的背景下落地，核心关税政策被美国 最高法院釜底抽薪式否决、支持率跌至第二任期谷底、政府部分停摆与两党极化加剧，叠 加中期选举的关键时间窗口，决定了本次演讲的政策表态兼具危机对冲与政治博弈的双重 属性，也为全球金融市场埋下了短期情绪波动与长期不确定性的双重伏笔。演讲核心的金 融相关政策中，最受市场关注的关税体系重构，特朗普正面回应司法危机，给出以《1974 年贸易法》为核心的替代法律框架，推出 150 天 15% 的全球临时进口关税，配套 301、 232 条款构建长期关税体系，短期对冲了财政收入缺口，却并未消除政策的长期不可预测 性，临时关税的到期风险、专项调查的边界模糊，将延后企业资本开支、扰动全球供应链 修复，加剧市场对通胀反弹的担忧，进而打乱美联储货币政策的宽松节奏，为美元指数、 美债收益率带来持续波动压力。与 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-26 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-26 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 "沪七条"：非沪籍外环内购房社保门槛降至 1 年，公积金贷款最高 324 万 观点分享： 上海五部门联合发布楼市新政，自 2026 年 2 月 26 日起施行。限购方面，非沪籍外环内 购房社保门槛降至 1 年，满 3 年可增购 1 套，持居住证满 5 年免社保限购 1 套。公积金方 面，首套贷款最高额度提至 240 万（多子女家庭最高 324 万），并放宽二套贷款认定。税收 方面，成年子女首套房暂免征收个人住房房产税。继北京之后，上海推出的房市调整政策力 度超预期，信号明确，是上海近年最大幅度松绑。其中公积金额度全国领先，直接降低月供 与首付压力；房产税免征则打通了置换堵点，将会有力地激活改善型需求，在推动市场回归 平稳健康的同时也依然守住了"房住不炒"的底线。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 黑色 | ★★★★ | 黑色：地产预期回暖，黑色商品反弹。2 月 25 日上海市发布了被称为"沪七条"的楼市新 政， ...

发展新质生产力，亟待破解一个问题：硬科技创新的长周期、高风险，与追求短期回报的传统金融 供给之间，存在结构性错配。引导资本更具"耐心"，成为从顶层设计到地方实践必须跨越的改革关口。 发展耐心资本，首要破除的是"不敢投"的种种障碍与"责任迷雾"。对于国有资本而言，其根源在 于"国有资产保值增值的当期考核"与"科技创新投资的长周期、高不确定性"之间的制度性冲突。作为落 实国务院办公厅《关于促进政府投资基金高质量发展的指导意见》的配套举措之一，2026年开始实行的 《政府投资基金投向评价管理办法（试行）》明确将"政策符合性指标"权重提至60分，旨在从根本上扭 转"以财务盈亏论英雄"的考核导向。 南京的破题思路，是用清晰规则为"风险"标定刻度，为"责任"划定边界。2026年2月，紫金山创投 大会上，南京发布专项支持政策：该市、区母基金参与出资的概念验证基金、天使基金存续期最长可至 20年，确有必要的可再延长3年。早在2024年，南京市人民政府印发《关于打造南京市"4+N"产业基金 集群聚力推动产业强市发展的实施意见》，明确建立差异化分类绩效考核机制，对功能母基金开展整体 绩效评价，不对单个投资项目的盈亏进行评价，并建 ...

在AI从训练迈向推理、从单点计算走向集群互联的演进中，以CPO（共封装光学）为代表的光通信技术 正迎来从0到1的规模化元年，算力基础设施的"卖铲人"们站在新一轮高景气周期的起点。英伟达财报超 预期催化不断，布局通信ETF（515880）一键布局算力核心环节，规模超140亿居同类第一，光模块+服 务器占比超66%。 【英伟达财报超预期的信号：算力需求爆发增长，网络互联成为新亮点】 英伟达财报不仅数据亮眼，更释放了关键信号：数据中心Networking业务暴增263%，远超市场预期， 表明随着GB200/GB300系统的铺开，芯片间的互联需求正在爆炸式增长，光通信的价值量正在急速提 升。 整体业绩全面超预期。FY4Q26英伟达实现营收681.27亿美元，同比+73%、环比+20%，超市场预期 （659.12亿美元）；净利润429.60亿美元，同比+94%、环比+35%，超市场预期（363.02亿美元）。公 司指引FY1Q27营收780亿美元（±2%），同比+77%、环比+14%，超市场预期（727.78亿美元）。更值 得注意的是，该指引在明确排除中国区收入的前提下依然超预期，充分说明海外AI需求的强劲程度。 网络 ...

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| 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅, | | --- | --- | --- | | 兆易创新 | 425.000 | 3.01% | | 澜起科技 | 195.000 | 1.51% | | 爱芯元智 | 28.680 | 1.34% | | 天数智芯 | 240.600 | 1.18% | | 中芯国际 | 70.650 | 1.15% | | 华虹未曾体 | 103.800 | 0.97% | | 壁仞科技 | 38.680 | 0.68% | | 英诺赛科 | 68.300 | 0.44% | 2月26日，香港恒生指数高开0.95%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HSI | 恒生指数 | 27019.74 | 254.02 | 0.95% | | HSTECH 恒生科技 | | 5284.51 | 24.01 | 0.46% | | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15707.37 | 56.92 | 0.36% | | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9078.96 | 44 ...

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2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 请务必阅读免责条款 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美贸易代表：美对部分国家加征的"全球进口关税"税率或达 15% 韩国出生人口连续两年回升 总和生育率升至 0.8 泰国央行意外将关键利率下调 25 个基点至 1% 我国科学家取得锂电池核心技术首创性突破 续航力成倍提 升 人民币对美元汇率突破 6.87，创近三年新高 上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"，非沪籍购房大松绑 港交所将就推动"T+1"结算周期的具体实施方案咨询市场 英伟达 Q4 财报亮眼 公司称算力需求依然饥渴 消息称谷歌正重押"铁空气电池"，可提供长达 100 小时稳定 电力 SK 海力士拟在韩国投资 151 亿美元，以扩建芯片产能 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.10 个基点报 3.471% 5 年期美债收益率涨 3.29 个基点报 3.622% 10 年期美债收益率涨 2.10 个基点报 4.052% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a fluctuating upward trend as policy guidance becomes clearer with the upcoming important meetings, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][4][10] - The market is expected to focus on the sustainability of price increases in cyclical sectors and signs of stabilization in the technology sector [1][4][10] Sector Analysis Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sectors, including chemicals and non-ferrous metals, have shown strong performance, driven by external factors such as geopolitical tensions and internal price increase logic [1][4][10] - The report highlights the potential for investment in cyclical sectors like oil and gas, coal, and construction materials, suggesting that economic recovery expectations could further boost these sectors [7][11] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly areas like AI computing and semiconductors, is noted for its long-term growth potential, with recommendations to consider investments once valuations return to reasonable levels [2][11] - Despite recent short-term profit-taking, the underlying industrial logic of the technology sector remains intact, with expectations for structural recovery opportunities as market sentiment stabilizes [1][10] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has seen a rebound due to supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including relaxed lending and purchasing restrictions [8] - The report suggests that the sector's recovery will continue, with a focus on companies with strong land reserves and those returning to stable growth [8] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a dual focus on "resource products + technology" as key investment themes, emphasizing the cyclical sectors benefiting from price increases and geopolitical catalysts, alongside technology sectors with long-term trends [2][11] - Investors are advised to consider opportunities in sectors like rare earths, which are critical for various industries, and to prioritize leading companies with resource advantages [6][11]