3月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为53.8%，连续6个月运行在54%左右的较好水平。 3月份，春节因素影响逐步消退，企业生产经营活动加快，制造业景气水平持续回升。 国家统计局3月31日发布的3月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，连续 两个月位于荣枯线之上。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，3月份PMI指数在荣枯线上继续小幅回升，表明经济回 升苗头更为明显。同时要注意到，采购量指数回落，购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均有回落，表明供大 于求的问题仍然突出；反映需求不足为主要困难的企业占比仍在60%之上，生产经营活动预期指数也有 所回落，企业恢复生产的信心仍然不足。 张立群表示，综合看，受政策推动经济初显回升态势，但基础还不稳定。要持续加大宏观政策逆周期调 节力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资在扩大内需中的关键作用，坚持不懈地尽快改变市场引导的 需求收缩趋势。 供需两端协同增长 分企业规模来看，3月份大型企业PMI为51.2%，虽较上月下降1.3个百分点，仍保持在扩张区间，表明 大型企业增速虽有所放缓，但仍保持上升势头。大型企业生产指数保持在54%，新订单指数保持在接近 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the government's economic goals for 2024 and 2025, focusing on growth, stability, and social development [1][2] - The GDP target for 2024 is set at 134.9 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [1] - The expected growth rate for GDP in 2025 is around 5%, with a focus on maintaining a stable urban unemployment rate of about 5.5% and creating over 12 million new urban jobs [1][2] Group 2 - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy with a deficit rate of around 4%, aiming for a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan and issuing long-term special government bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan [2] - A moderately loose monetary policy will be adopted, including potential interest rate cuts to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets [2] - Key tasks for 2025 include boosting consumption, enhancing investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand comprehensively [2]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP growth reached 5.0%, with the total economic output surpassing 130 trillion yuan for the first time[3] - The GDP growth in Q4 was 5.4%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to Q3[3] - Industrial added value increased by 5.7%, contributing 34.1% to economic growth, an increase of 12.7 percentage points[3] Sector Contributions - The service sector's added value grew by 5.0%, contributing 56.2% to economic growth, serving as a stabilizing force[3] - Domestic demand accounted for 69.7% of economic growth, highlighting its role as the main driver[3] - Net exports contributed 30.3% to economic growth, showing a significant improvement from the previous year[3] Emerging Industries - The share of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing in total industrial added value rose to 16.3% and 34.6%, respectively[4] - Notable growth in specific high-tech sectors included smart vehicle equipment (25.1%) and drones (53.5%)[4] Social Indicators - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year[4] - Urban employment increased by 12.56 million, maintaining above 12 million for four consecutive years[4] - Per capita disposable income rose by 5.1%, with consumption expenditure also increasing by 5.1%[8] Food and Energy Security - In 2024, total grain production reached 1.413 trillion jin, marking the first time it exceeded 1.4 trillion jin[8] - Energy self-sufficiency remained above 80%, with coal production hitting a record 4.78 billion tons[8] Future Outlook - The economic growth forecast for 2025 is around 5%, with a stable foundation and strong potential for high-quality development[10] - The report highlights both opportunities and challenges for the upcoming year, emphasizing a favorable environment for growth[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for Dalian to become the first city in Northeast China to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by strong economic growth and industrial development [1][3]. Economic Performance - Dalian's GDP reached 8752.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 6%, and is projected to grow to 9516.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3]. - The second industry in Dalian contributed significantly, with an added value of 3715.2 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 9% [3]. - In 2024, the second industry's growth rate is expected to be the highest among all sectors at 6.6% [3]. Industrial Development - Traditional industries such as petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing are performing well, with the Longxing Island Economic Zone's industrial output surpassing 2525.5 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 29.7% of Dalian's industrial output [3][4]. - The high-tech manufacturing sector in Dalian saw an increase of 11.0% in added value in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 21 consecutive months [4]. Consumer Market - Dalian's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2085.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, driven by significant increases in the sales of upgraded consumer goods [4]. Challenges and Opportunities - To achieve the 1 trillion yuan GDP target by 2025, Dalian needs to address gaps in its service industry, particularly in high-end services like financial innovation and technology research [5][6]. - Talent retention remains a challenge, as Dalian's competitive edge in salary and career opportunities lags behind first-tier cities, leading to talent outflow [6]. Regional Dynamics - Other cities in Northeast China, such as Shenyang and Changchun, are also targeting the 1 trillion yuan GDP milestone, with Shenyang projected to reach 9027.1 billion yuan in GDP in 2024 [8][9]. - Shenyang's government aims for a GDP growth of over 5.5% in 2025, which could position it to join the "trillion club" by 2026 [9]. Strategic Importance - The rise of Dalian and Shenyang is crucial not only for Liaoning Province but also for the overall economic revitalization of Northeast China, although geographical limitations may affect Dalian's regional influence [10].

文：任泽平团队 12月16日，国家统计局发布11月主要经济数据。 11月规模以上工业增加值同比5.4%，10月同比5.3%； 11月社会固定资产投资当月同比2.3%，10月同比3.4%； 11月社会消费品零售总额同比3%，10月同比4.8%； 11月基建投资（不含电力）当月同比3.3%，10月同比5.8%； 11月房地产开发投资当月同比-11.6%，10月同比-12.3%； 11月房地产销售面积同比3.2%，10月同比-1.6%； 11月房地产销售金额同比1.0%，10月同比-1.0%； 11月制造业投资当月同比9.3%，10月同比10.0%； 11月出口（以美元计）同比6.7%，10月同比12.7%；11月进口（以美元计）同比-3.9%，10 月同比-2.3%； 11月M2同比7.1%，10月同比7.5%； 11月社融同比7.8%，10月同比7.8%； 11月CPI同比0.2%，10月同比0.3%； 11月PPI同比-2.5%，10月同比-2.9%。 1 扩大内需，提振信心， 重在政策落地 11 月部分经济指标回暖，政策效果显现，主要是工业生产、汽车消费、商品房销售和M1。 以旧换新、置换、报废补贴等政策对 ...