Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw a decline in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on September 10, with December corn contracts closing at $4.17 per bushel, down 2.75 cents (0.66%) from the previous trading day [1] - December wheat contracts closed at $5.15 per bushel, down 5.25 cents (1.01%), while November soybean contracts closed at $10.25 per bushel, down 6 cents (0.58%) [1] - Global grain prices remained stable or generally declined, with Chicago corn and soybean prices dropping due to the upcoming harvest and a slowdown in U.S. export demand [1] Group 2 - The USDA's September crop report, to be released on September 12, is expected to highlight record corn production in the U.S. and record wheat production among the world's eight major exporting countries [2] - China is anticipated to avoid importing U.S. soybeans until November or the end of the year due to tariffs and geopolitical reasons, which will negatively impact Chicago futures grain prices [2] - Market analysts predict that prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans have not yet reached seasonal lows, as farmers continue to hold onto crops due to thin profit margins [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that ethanol production reached 32.5 million gallons last week, an increase of 9 million gallons from the previous week, marking a historical high [2] - Ethanol inventory rose to 959 million gallons, down 4% from the same period last year, while U.S. crude oil consumption decreased to 8.51 million barrels per day, down from 9.12 million barrels [2] - Weather forecasts indicate no further cold weather in the northern plains of the U.S. and Canada, with no tropical storms or hurricanes predicted for later this month [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/Meal**: The decline of US soybeans reflects the impact of demand, but the downside space is limited. Brazilian soybeans also have limited deep - decline space. In China, there is still supply pressure and inventory pressure on soybean meal [2][4][6]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market is expected to enter a stockpiling stage, and prices are expected to rebound in the short - term after falling to a low level. In the domestic market, although domestic sugar inventory is low, a large amount of imported sugar may put some pressure on prices [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, US soybean oil fell, and the domestic oil market followed the weakness. Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase production and stockpile in August, while Indonesian inventory is low. US soybeans have a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of stockpiling, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [19]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures are falling, but there is still room for rebound. In China, the supply of corn is still relatively short, and the spot price of corn may continue to fall [23][28]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply pressure of pigs has decreased, but due to the relatively high inventory and high slaughter weight, there is still some pressure on prices [34]. - **Peanuts**: The supply of peanuts is still small, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [38]. - **Eggs**: The supply - side pressure has been alleviated, but the over - supply pattern has not changed. The demand is expected to increase slightly before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [46]. - **Apples**: The 10 - month contract of apples may fall in the short - term, but the decline space is limited. The market may focus on the excellent fruit rate [55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: As new cotton enters the acquisition stage, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to have a limited impact on the market [59]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.47% to 1048.5 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.1% to 292 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated yield is 53.3 bushels/acre. As of September 7, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 2.44 million tons, and soybean meal imports were 3.63 million tons. In Argentina, there may be a new political crisis. As of September 5, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3039 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.76% [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long positions can be arranged at low prices for distant - month contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal. Expand the MRM05 spread. Buy call options [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar both rose [8]. - **Related Information**: In the first week of September, Brazil exported 769,000 tons of sugar and molasses. The 2025/26 German beet refined sugar production is expected to decrease by 4.9% to 4.4 million tons. Domestic processing sugar prices are stable with a slight decline [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [12][13][15]. Oils and Fats - **Market Conditions**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil both fell [15]. - **Related Information**: As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small farmers in Malaysia obtained MSPO certification. The estimated US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, and the estimated ending inventory is 288 million bushels. Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week. Canada's rapeseed inventory decreased, while exports increased [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for the callback and then try to go long in batches. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Related Information**: The main reason for the decline is the start of the US corn harvest and traders' position - closing before the USDA monthly report. The US corn main - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. As of September 7, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 68%, and the harvest rate was 4%. The North Port acquisition price is stable, while the North China spot price is falling [24][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the 12 - month US corn contract on dips. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the 01 corn contract. Expand the spread between 11 - month corn and starch lightly [29][30]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices are generally stable to declining, and the prices of piglets and sows are falling [33][34]. - **Related Information**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both decreased, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.2% [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on the near - month contracts on rallies. Reverse - arbitrage the LH15 contract. Buy call options for distant - month contracts [35]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: The average price of national peanut kernels is stable with a slight increase, the operating rate of oil mills is low, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable [36][37]. - **Related Information**: As of September 4, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - month and 01 - month peanut contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Try to go long on the 05 - month peanut contract lightly. Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [39][41]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas and main sales areas rose. The national mainstream egg prices are stable with some increases [43][44]. - **Related Information**: In August, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 3% in the week of August 28. The production and circulation inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy is provided in the report. Apples - **Market Conditions**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the export volume increased. The spot price is stable [49][50]. - **Related Information**: The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia decreased by 0.1 yuan/jin compared with last week [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [55]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton rose [56]. - **Related Information**: In August, China's textile and clothing exports decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year. As of September 8, the ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory remained unchanged. As of September 6, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 86.9% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly weakly. Go short on rallies. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options [59].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 9 月 10 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 1 / 4 花生日报 第一部分 数据 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/9/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7878 | 18 | 0.23% | 3 | -94.00% | 431 | 0.23% | | PK510 | 7876 | -8 | -0.10% | 7,169 | -49.99% | 27,597 | -9.23% | | PK601 | 7846 | 12 | 0.15% | 7,609 | -45.22% | 36,339 | 1.74% | | 现货与基差 | | | | ...

Report Overview - The report is a 2025-09-10 agricultural products morning report from Wukuang Futures, covering soybeans, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1]. Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Situation - On Tuesday, U.S. soybeans fell slightly due to demand concerns. The domestic soybean meal market declined under high inventory pressure. Domestic soybean meal trading was fair, with high pick-up volumes. East China spot prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained at 01-100 [2]. - Last week, downstream inventory days decreased by 0.08 days to 8.8 days. Oil mill soybean inventories reached a five-year high, and soybean meal inventories increased slightly. According to MYSTEEL, 2.3 million tons of soybeans were crushed last week, and 2.26 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2]. Outlook - U.S. soybean production areas may see less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean good-to-excellent rate may continue to decline. Pay attention to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report on soybean yields [2]. - In Brazil, the premium decreased and then rebounded. Overall, the USDA's previous significant reduction in planting area is bullish for CBOT soybeans, but the upward momentum of soybean import costs under the background of global protein raw material oversupply needs to be tested [2]. Trading Strategy - Soybean import costs have recently been weak and stable. Pay attention to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market has high pick-up volumes, and the spot market may start to destock in September, supporting oil mill crushing margins [4]. - In the future, pay attention to whether the improvement of the U.S. soybean market and the Brazilian planting season can improve the current oversupply situation. Regarding crushing margins, pay attention to whether the pick-up volume can be sustained. It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and be cautious about crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils Important Information - According to a Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-10 increased by 23.67%. Exports are expected to increase by 16.5%-21.3% in the first 15 days, 13.61%-17.5% in the first 20 days, 10.9%-16.4% in the first 25 days, and 10.2% for the whole month [6]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1-15 increased by 0.88% month-on-month, is expected to increase by 0.3% in the first 20 days, decrease by 1.21% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 2.65% for the whole month [6]. - Analysts expect the U.S. 2025/26 soybean production to be 4.271 billion bushels, with a range of 4.205-4.347 billion bushels. The USDA previously estimated 4.292 billion bushels in August [6]. Market Situation - On Tuesday, China's three major oils oscillated and declined. Stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply from Indonesia provide continuous bullish factors. Recent commodity corrections, high domestic oil inventories, and high oil valuations suppress buying sentiment. Foreign investors slightly reduced their long positions in oils on Tuesday. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7]. Trading Strategy - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeded expectations, Southeast Asian palm oil production potential is insufficient, Indian and Southeast Asian vegetable oil inventories are low, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the oil price center. Oils are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose supply and demand, with a tight outlook. Before the inventories in consuming and producing regions are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from consumer demand, oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium term. Given the current high valuations, observe high-frequency data and adopt a strategy of buying on dips after a decline [9]. Sugar Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The January contract closed at 5,518 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in Guangxi remained unchanged, while those in Yunnan were stable. Processing sugar factory quotes decreased by 0-20 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 352 yuan/ton [11]. - In August, China's sugar sales were 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 160,000 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 200,000 tons. The national industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons. Brazil exported 840,000 tons of sugar to China in August, a month-on-month increase of 390,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 250,000 tons [11]. Trading Strategy - Domestically, increased imports, poor sales data in major producing areas in August, and expected production increases in Guangxi in the new season are bearish factors. Internationally, Brazil's central-southern region had a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in the first half of August. Overall, the sugar price is expected to decline. The downward space depends on the international market. If Brazil's production continues to increase from August to October, the raw sugar price may continue to fall, and the domestic sugar price may reach new lows. Otherwise, the raw sugar price may oscillate or rebound slightly, and the domestic sugar price trend will be more complex [12]. Cotton Key Information - On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to decline slightly. The January contract closed at 13,835 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B dropped by 87 yuan/ton to 15,335 yuan/ton. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,500 yuan/ton [14]. - As of September 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 66%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 4.1 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weaving mill operating rate was 37.4%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 13.9 percentage point decrease from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.42 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from the previous week and 410,000 tons from the same period last year [14]. - As of August 28, the cumulative U.S. cotton export contracts for the 2025/26 season were 852,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 179,100 tons. The weekly export contracts were 55,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20,300 tons. Brazil exported 10,500 tons of raw cotton to China in August, a year-on-year decrease of 8,000 tons and a month-on-month increase of 1,000 tons [14]. Trading Strategy - Fundamentally, although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, downstream consumption remains weak, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest in the new season. However, domestic cotton inventories are at a historically low level, creating a balance between bullish and bearish factors. Technically, the short-term Zhengzhou cotton price has encountered strong selling pressure after a rebound, and the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Eggs Spot Information - Most domestic egg prices were stable, with a few increasing. The average price in major producing areas rose slightly by 0.01 yuan to 3.40 yuan/jin. The prices in Heishan and Guantao remained unchanged. The market had a small inventory of eggs, and consumer demand in major sales areas was average. Dealers were moderately active in purchasing, and trading was stable. Egg prices are expected to remain mostly stable with a few increases [17]. Trading Strategy - The supply base is still large, and there is a large inventory of cold-stored eggs. After a short-term increase, the spot price is expected to decline. However, the supply pressure will decrease after a large number of laying hens are culled, and the storage conditions will improve after the temperature drops. If the spot price decline is less than expected, it may trigger reverse stocking, limiting the decline of spot and futures prices. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short-term long positions if there is significant position building after a decline [18]. Pigs Spot Information - Domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.21 yuan to 13.6 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.09 yuan to 13.27 yuan/kg. After continuous declines, farmers may have a short-term intention to support prices, but there is no positive change in downstream demand. Slaughterhouses may purchase at lower prices. Pig prices are expected to be stable or decline slightly today, with a narrowing decline [20]. Trading Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September is expected to be bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are accumulating. The spot price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for a significant increase or decrease. The market has already priced in the large supply, and the futures price, especially the near-term contract, has declined significantly and is at a discount to the spot price. It is not cost-effective to short aggressively. The strategy should focus on potential rebounds due to consumption factors and short opportunities after rebounds. The reverse spread strategy for the far-term contract remains valid [21].

1. Overall Investment Rating No investment rating for the industries is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Maintain a cautiously bullish view. Palm oil futures may strengthen after the MPOB report. Soybean oil's production decline supports the basis price. [1] - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile and weak due to high supply pressure and lack of positive drivers. [3] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices may decline in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term due to expected new - season supply and weak demand. [4] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices may trade in a range in the short - term and face pressure after new cotton is listed. [7] - **Eggs**: Egg prices may rebound in early September but with limited upside, and a bearish view is maintained overall. [9] - **Meal and Soybeans**: The medium - to long - term outlook for two meals is bullish, but short - term adjustment risks should be monitored. [10] - **Pigs**: Pig prices have limited room to fall further, but demand's ability to absorb supply is uncertain, and short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. [12] 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Futures Prices**: Y2601 soybean oil futures price is 8454, up 0.40%; P2601 palm oil futures price is 9480, up 1.72%; OI601 rapeseed oil futures price is 9980, up 0.50%. [1] - **Spot Prices**: Jiangsu 9 - month soybean oil spot basis is 01 + 210; Guangdong 9 - month palm oil spot basis is 01+20; Jiangsu 9 - month rapeseed oil spot basis is 01 + 110. [1] - **Spreads**: Palm oil 09 - 01 spread is 140, up 95.89%; rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread is 34, up 35.79%; soybean - palm oil spot spread is - 50, down 7.14%. [1] Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: Sugar 2601 is 5518, down 0.16%; ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.84, up 1.28%. [3] - **Spot Market**: Nanning spot price is 5880, unchanged; Kunming is 5820, down 0.17%. [3] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production cumulative value is 1116.21, up 12.03%; sales cumulative value is 955.00, up 15.76%. [3] Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: Corn 2511 Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2214, down 0.76%; basis is 106, up 19.10%. [4] - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2511 is 2510, down 0.67%; basis is 150, up 12.78%. [4] Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 2605 is 13790, down 0.36%; Cotton 2601 is 13835, down 0.36%. [7] - **Spot Prices**: Xinjiang 3128B arrival price is 15253, down 0.45%; CC Index 3128B is 15335, down 0.56%. [7] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 148.17, down 18.6%; industrial inventory is 89.23, down 3.5%. [7] Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: Egg 11 contract is 3083, up 1.98%; Egg 10 contract is 3060, up 1.93%. [9] - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chicken feed ratio is 2.50, up 2.88%; breeding profit is - 17.89, up 20.84%. [9] Meal and Soybeans Industry - **Soybean Meal**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3030, down 0.33%; M2601 futures price is 3075, down 0.19%. [10] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2620, down 0.38%; RM2601 futures price is 2550, up 0.31%. [10] - **Soybeans**: Harbin soybean spot price is 3980, unchanged; soybean No.1 main contract is 3968, down 0.23%. [10] Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: Pig 2511 is 13230, down 0.56%; Pig 2601 is 13655, down 0.76%. [12] - **Spot Market**: Henan spot price is 13550, down 150; Shandong is 13600, down 150. [12] - **Related Indicators**: Sample slaughter volume per day is 148565, up 0.02%; white - strip price per week is unchanged. [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports Core Views Oils and Fats - Overall, maintain a cautiously bullish view. Palm oil futures may strengthen, and soybean oil's production decline supports basis quotes [1] Sugar - Expect sugar prices to remain oscillating weakly due to factors like new sugar approaching and weak market sentiment [3] Corn - In the short - term, the corn futures market is pressured downwards, and in the medium - term, it maintains a weak pattern. Suggest cautious short - selling [4] Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and will be under pressure after new cotton is listed [7] Eggs - Egg prices may rebound in early September, but the overall increase is limited. Maintain a bearish view [9] Meal - Long - term bullish expectations remain unchanged, but pay attention to short - term adjustment risks [10] Pigs - The decline of live pig prices is limited, but there are uncertainties in demand. The basis may strengthen [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean crushing profit is up 3.0%, and domestic soybean oil production decline supports basis quotes. The basis of Y2601 is 216, down 14 from the previous day. The 09 - 01 spread is 42, down 4 [1] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian BMD futures wait for the MPOB report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures oscillate narrowly at high levels. The basis of P2601 is - 60, down 90 from the previous day. The 09 - 01 spread is - 6, up 140 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The basis of OI601 is - 50, up 20 from the previous day. The 09 - 01 spread is 129, up 34 [1] Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 is 5518, down 9 from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread is 21, up 3 [3] - **Spot Market**: Nanning's price is 5880, unchanged. The basis in Kunming is 323, up 2 [3] - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production accumulates to 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year. Sales reach 955.00 million tons, up 15.76% [3] Corn - **Corn**: The price of C2511 at Jinzhou Port is 2214, down 17 from the previous day. The 11 - 3 spread is 10, down 7 [4] - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2511 is 2510, down 17 from the previous day. The basis is 150, up 17 [4] Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 is 13790, down 50 from the previous day. The 5 - 1 spread is - 45, unchanged [7] - **Spot Market**: Xinjiang's arrival price of 3128B is 15253, down 69. The basis of 3128B - 01 is 1463, down 19 [7] - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 18.6% month - on - month. Import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 66.7% [7] Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD11 is 3083, up 60 from the previous day. The 11 - 10 spread is 23, up 2 [9] - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 3.41, unchanged. The basis is 350, down 58 [9] - **Industry Situation**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07. The breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan per bird, up 4.71 [9] Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The price in Jiangsu is 3030, down 10 from the previous day. The basis of M2601 is - 45, down 4 [10] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price in Jiangsu is 2620, down 10 from the previous day. The basis of RM2601 is 70, down 18 [10] - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans is 3980, unchanged. The basis of the main contract of soybean No.1 is 12, up 9 [10] Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of LH2511 is 13230, down 75 from the previous day. The 11 - 1 spread is - 425, up 30 [12] - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan is 13550, down 150. The basis of the main contract is - 105, down 45 [12] - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 148565, up 27. The self - breeding profit per week is 53 yuan per head, up 63.31% [12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn: The corn market shows different trends in different regions. In the Northeast, prices are rising, while in North China, prices are falling. Technically, the short - term price is adjusted, and the medium - term is expected to be weak due to high yield and lower costs [1]. - Soybean and Bean Meal: CBOT soybeans fell as investors adjusted positions before the supply - demand report, which is expected to show a slight decline in US soybean yield but still high production. Domestic bean meal prices are mainly oscillating, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Palm Oil and Other Oils: BMD palm oil declined due to the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit. Domestic oil futures prices are narrowly oscillating, and strategies such as increasing volatility or selling put options are recommended [1]. - Eggs: Egg futures rebounded, and spot prices are stable. The supply will affect egg prices in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pigs: Pig futures are weakly oscillating, and spot prices are also weak. The anti - dumping measures have limited impact, and the market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Market Information Summary - Canadian Agricultural Production: As of July 31, Canada's wheat production was 35.94 million tons, and the ending inventory was 4.11 million tons; rapeseed production was 19.24 million tons, and the ending inventory was 1.60 million tons [3]. - Domestic Inventory: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory increased by 1.60% week - on - week, bean meal inventory increased by 9.09% week - on - week, and imported rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 4.01% week - on - week [3]. - Trading Arrangement: On September 11, 2025, a domestic soybean auction will be held, selling 22,500 tons of domestic soybeans [3]. - US Crop Forecast: Analysts expect US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.271 billion bushels, lower than the August estimate [3]. Group 4: Variety Spread - Contract Spread: The report shows various contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5, corn starch 1 - 5, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [4][5][6] - Contract Basis: The report shows various contract bases such as corn basis, soybean basis, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided [12][13][16] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the strategy is neutral [3][4] - For the corn sector, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent - good rate, and future USDA adjustments to new - season US soybeans need attention. In China, soybean arrivals are high, supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and new - season US soybean yields [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of new - season grains is increasing, and the overall supply is loose. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3075 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2550 yuan/ton, a change of + 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of September 7, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 64%, slightly higher than the expected 63% but lower than last week and the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 21%. As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 45.22 tons. The 2025/26 cumulative export inspection volume was 24.86 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.10% [2] 3.2 Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2214 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.76%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US Market: As of September 7, the US corn excellent - good rate was 68%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but the highest since 2018. The corn harvest rate was 4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] 3.3 Market Analysis (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - US: The growth of US soybeans is good, and the excellent - good rate is at a historical high. Future attention should be paid to USDA's adjustments to new - season US soybeans [3] - China: The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and their impact on import costs [3] 3.4 Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: Traders have little old - season grain left. New - season grains are starting to be supplied to the market, and the overall supply is loose [5] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains [5] 3.5 Strategy - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

Industry Information - The industry under research is the soybean meal industry [1] - The report date is September 8, 2025 [2] - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Market Review - **Contract Performance**: The settlement prices, opening prices, highs, lows, closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of contracts such as soybean meal 2601, 2609, and 2611 are presented. For example, the soybean meal 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3063, an opening price of 3043, a high of 3072, a low of 3042, a closing price of 3067, a change of 4, and a change percentage of 0.13%. Its trading volume was 767,878, and the open interest was 1,996,647 with a decrease of 46,634 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1030 cents. The external environment has stabilized this week, with limited fundamental information interference. The weather conditions for the new US soybean crop have worsened, showing dry conditions in mid - to late August. The current weather pattern is similar to last year's, where the early growth period had good weather, and the USDA adjusted the yield per unit area to a high level in August. However, the weather turned dry starting in August. There is a possibility that the final excellent - good rate this year may be significantly lower than the August forecast, but the September report is less likely to change, and more adjustments to the yield per unit area can be expected in the October report [6] - **Market Focus**: The recent unfavorable weather has not brought significant bullish sentiment to CBOT soybeans. Instead, the market is mainly focused on the pessimistic outlook for new - season exports. As the US soybean harvest approaches, China has not started purchasing US soybeans, increasing the pressure on US soybeans. Although China may stop purchasing US soybeans, due to the significant reduction in planting area and the expected decrease in yield per unit area, the pressure on ending stocks is not as great as last year. Overall, the CBOT price remains in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with the possibility of being weak first and then strong in the medium term [6] - **Domestic Situation**: China's soybean meal market is in a fundamental situation of wide current supply and tight future expectations. In the medium term, with a 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. However, there may still be a small import gap, which may be filled by state - reserve auctions. Due to recent state - reserve soybean auctions and the weakening of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal lacks upward momentum. However, the problem of low imported soybean volume may gradually emerge in the fourth quarter after the National Day. Weather issues also need to be monitored in the October USDA report. After short - term oscillations, the medium - term outlook for soybean meal is bullish after corrections [6] Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, down from 69% the previous week, and the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year, and in line with the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year, and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [7] - **USDA Export Inspection Report**: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, meeting expectations. The previous market forecast was between 200,000 - 500,000 tons, and the revised figure from the previous week was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period last year [15] - **USDA Monthly Crushing**: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), up from 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a decline in agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on September 5, with all major contracts closing lower [1][2] Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 0.61%, closing at 1026.75 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures decreased by 0.42%, ending at 418.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures dropped by 0.10%, closing at 519.00 cents per bushel [1]