Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slow bull market despite short-term volatility, driven by active capital inflow and a focus on growth sectors, particularly technology [4][7]. Market Overview - From September 15 to September 19, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with major indices fluctuating. Growth sectors, represented by the ChiNext, performed strongly, while large financial and resource sectors faced significant pressure [4]. - The market is characterized by increased volatility in daily trading, with some investors taking profits following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, while others continue to invest in growth stocks [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, marking its first rate cut of 2025. This decision was anticipated by the market, leading to a preemptive rally in growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors [5]. - The Fed's overall tone was neutral, indicating a "preventive rate cut" to manage rising risks in the job market. Future rate cut expectations suggest an additional 50 basis points reduction within 2025 [5]. Domestic Economic Data - August economic data in China showed a steady but weak trend, with pressures across production, consumption, investment, and exports. Industrial production remained resilient but slowed, while traditional sectors like consumer goods faced declining growth [6]. - Fixed asset investment continued to weaken, significantly impacted by the real estate sector, with both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth rates declining [6]. Market Dynamics - The "asset scarcity" phenomenon is driving residents to seek higher-yield investment products, contributing to the ongoing slow bull market. The risk appetite among investors has increased following the Fed's rate cut [7]. - Market trading volume concentration has increased, indicating a stronger focus on leading sectors. Although there are signs of potential market consolidation, the previous strong sectors remain robust [7]. Recommended Investment Directions - Growth technology sectors are expected to continue performing well, with opportunities emerging in AI computing, solid-state batteries, robotics, and biotechnology. The domestic storage chip industry is poised for growth due to the need for self-sufficiency [8]. - The Hong Kong stock market, lagging behind A-shares, is anticipated to rebound due to the Fed's rate cut and ongoing capital inflows. The current market trend shows a joint rise in technology and cyclical sectors [8].

今年是中国与印尼建交75周年。布迪曼表示，近年来，两国各领域合作取得显著成果。2024年，两国双 边贸易额达到1478亿美元，中国连续12年成为印尼最大贸易伙伴和主要投资来源国。 布迪曼认为，印尼受益于高质量共建"一带一路"，包括雅万高铁在内的基础设施项目不仅推动了区域一 体化，也为印尼发展注入动力。中国企业还在物流、人工智能等领域持续加大对印尼投资，由中国企业 承建的奇拉塔漂浮光伏发电项目等正帮助印尼缓解供电压力，助力能源转型。"共建'一带一路'倡议倡 导平等与互利合作，这与万隆精神的内涵相契合。"布迪曼说，"相信万隆精神将继续引领印尼与中国关 系不断前行。" "印尼与中国不仅在双边关系上实现互利共赢，也在二十国集团、东盟—中国、金砖国家等多边平台共 同维护全球南方国家的利益。"布迪曼说，印尼和中国深化全方位战略协作和发展战略对接，共同致力 今年是万隆会议召开70周年。印度尼西亚万隆地缘政治研究协会创始人贝迪·布迪曼日前在接受本报记 者采访时表示，中国在万隆会议中发挥了重要作用，万隆会议为亚非国家的发展注入信心、指明方向， 使其更主动地参与塑造公正、和平与可持续的国际秩序。 布迪曼认为，中国主张团结合作，反 ...

柬埔寨发展理事会柬埔寨投资委员会副秘书长林伟夏在第22届中国—东盟博览会期间接受新华社记者专 访时，以柬埔寨谚语"近处经商远胜远处"积极评价中国在推动柬埔寨经济社会发展中发挥的关键作用， 并对中国经济发展及柬中合作前景充满信心。 谈及柬中合作的具体成果，林伟夏说，由中方企业参与投资开发的西哈努克港经济特区吸引了多国企业 入驻，所生产的产品远销欧美日等市场。"中国投资者有资金、懂市场，柬埔寨有劳动力和区位优势， 双方优势互补，实现了真正共赢。" 林伟夏指出，中国是柬埔寨最大的贸易伙伴和最大外资来源国。"中国对我们来说非常重要。" 林伟夏强调，柬中经贸领域互补性强、合作潜力巨大，而东博会作为区域重要交流平台，正为深化合作 注入持续动力。柬埔寨通过在东博会设立国家展区，为企业创造商务对接机会。"私营部门可以面对面 交流、洽谈合作，政府官员参与推动。更重要的是，各类商协会借助东博会广泛联络，为我们中小企业 提供了宝贵的拓展渠道。" 林伟夏还提到刚刚通航的德崇国际机场——这一柬埔寨最大的机场由中国企业承建。此外，中国帮助柬 埔寨建设了多个电站，包括桑河二级水电站和太阳能可再生能源项目，有效缓解了当地电力短缺问题。 中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The government has initiated comprehensive rectification of excessive competition across multiple industries since the second half of last year, aiming to promote the recovery of industrial product prices, restore industry profitability, and optimize industrial structure. In August, the PPI (Producer Price Index) showed signs of stabilization, but investment and commodity consumption have significantly slowed, indicating weak growth momentum in terminal demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply-Side Dynamics - The current capacity governance emphasizes legal compliance and is characterized by a steady pace of capacity reduction, with a focus on exiting excess low-end outdated capacities in industries such as coal, steel, and photovoltaics. Policies are dense in these sectors, which directly influence the sustainability of price recovery [4][5]. - Approximately 60% of industries are currently at historical profit margins below the 40th percentile, indicating a need for improvement in asset turnover and overall revenue growth to enhance asset return rates [4][6]. - The PPI's fluctuation is significantly influenced by industries such as mining, non-ferrous and ferrous metal smelting, and chemical manufacturing, with notable price increases in coal and water supply sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Demand-Side Challenges - Economic momentum weakened in August, and the effectiveness of stimulus policies on consumer goods is uncertain, particularly as the replacement cycle for durable goods is long, which may diminish the impact of such policies [5][6]. - Real estate and infrastructure investments remain crucial for growth, but both sectors have shown negative year-on-year changes, with real estate down by 12.9% and infrastructure up by only 5.4% in the first eight months of the year [6][8]. - The recovery in the real estate market is expected to take time, and the effectiveness of existing PPP projects and new financial tools will be critical for stabilizing infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter [6][8]. Group 3: Price Transmission and Industry Specifics - The price transmission from upstream to downstream industries is contingent on terminal demand conditions, with structural demand in specific sectors like steel and photovoltaics showing potential for marginal recovery [5][9]. - The analysis of price transmission in the black building materials chain indicates significant price declines in raw materials, while the photovoltaic sector has experienced varied price movements, reflecting the complexities of market dynamics [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a slowdown in infrastructure investment, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.0% from January to August, which is a 1.2 percentage point decrease compared to the previous month [1][3][4] - In August, infrastructure investment saw a significant year-on-year decline of 5.9%, reflecting a notable drop compared to the same period last year [1][4] - The report highlights that various sectors such as railway transportation, road transportation, water conservancy management, and public facility management experienced different growth rates, with all sectors showing a slowdown compared to July [1][3][4] Group 2 - The cement production from January to August decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 6.2% in August, indicating weakened physical demand [1][3][4] - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 1.8% year-on-year from January to August, suggesting a potential for growth pending the implementation of consumption-boosting policies [3][4] - The report suggests that while the infrastructure and real estate sectors face pressure, there is potential for policy support to enhance growth, particularly through major central infrastructure projects and debt reduction efforts [3][4] Group 3 - The international engineering sector shows promise, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in completed contract value for foreign engineering projects in the first half of 2025, and a 13.7% increase in new contracts signed [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative, with a 21% year-on-year increase in new contracts signed in participating countries, indicating sustained overseas engineering demand [5] - The semiconductor industry is highlighted as a growth area, with international companies increasing capital expenditures, suggesting investment opportunities in related sectors [5]

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering industry [12] Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic importance of Xinjiang as a key area for investment and development, particularly in infrastructure projects, due to its geographical advantages and government support [6][8] - Significant infrastructure projects are set to accelerate in Xinjiang, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and coal chemical projects, which are expected to create investment opportunities for related companies [7][10] - The report emphasizes the transition of Xinjiang from a coal base to a coal chemical base, with substantial capacity and project approvals in the coal chemical sector [8] Summary by Sections Government Policy and Strategic Importance - The State Council's white paper on Xinjiang outlines a new strategy for development, emphasizing the region's role in the Belt and Road Initiative and its importance in national energy security [2][6] - Xinjiang is positioned as a critical hub connecting mainland China with European economies, benefiting from favorable policies and funding [6] Major Projects and Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several major projects, including the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which is set to begin construction with an investment of approximately 8 billion USD [9] - The report notes that Xinjiang's coal chemical projects are advancing, with a total investment of 700-800 billion CNY and multiple projects receiving environmental approvals [8] Company Focus and Order Release - Companies such as China Chemical and China Railway Construction are expected to benefit from increased orders due to the acceleration of infrastructure projects in Xinjiang [10] - The report highlights the strong technical capabilities of China Chemical in the coal chemical sector, which is likely to enhance its order flow and performance [10]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index is at 50.04%, down 0.03 percentage points from August, and the demand index is at 49.91%, up 0.02 percentage points from August[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.93%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.68%, down 0.04 percentage points[6] Real Estate and Consumption - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 14.5% year-on-year, improving from 6.8% in the first half of the month[7] - The retail sales of passenger cars in September showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0%, indicating a gradual emergence of base effect in consumer spending[24] Export and Industrial Production - The cumulative cargo throughput at monitored ports recorded a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.8%, improving from 4.6% in August, suggesting strong export resilience[7] - The industrial production index shows a slight recovery, with the national blast furnace operating rate at 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points from last week[16] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.73%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[12] - The central bank is expected to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to stabilize liquidity around the quarter-end, with a net monetary injection of 562.3 billion yuan this week[51] Risks and Policy Measures - Risks include uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[58] - Recent policies aimed at expanding service consumption were announced, which may help alleviate pressures on commodity consumption and prices[57]

Group 1 - The overall consumption is improving, with notable increases in automobile retail and wholesale volumes, as well as high-end liquor prices due to seasonal demand and base effects [1] - Service consumption indicators such as urban population mobility and movie box office revenues are also showing improvement, although the inter-city migration index has turned negative year-on-year [1] - Investment in infrastructure is seeing a rapid issuance of special bonds, while the decline in project contract amounts is narrowing; real estate sales are recovering during the peak season, but the land market is cooling down and construction starts remain low [1] Group 2 - In terms of trade, domestic port freight rates have decreased due to tariff policy disruptions [1] - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with sectors like power generation and steel adjusting due to demand or profit influences [1] - Inventory levels are primarily focused on replenishment, with industrial prices rising and CPI showing a differentiated trend [1] Group 3 - The US dollar index has slightly increased, while the Chinese yuan has appreciated moderately [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies including China Chemical, Donghua Technology, Sanwei Chemical, China Metallurgical Group, China Railway Group, and Sichuan Road and Bridge [10][11][32]. Core Insights - The Xinjiang region is expected to enter a period of intensive policy catalysts, with the central government likely to provide more support, enhancing the performance and valuation of the Xinjiang sector [2][10][13]. - The report emphasizes two main investment directions: transportation infrastructure and coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, driven by the region's strategic importance and resource endowment [2][6][10]. - Key companies recommended include local infrastructure leaders such as Xinjiang Communications Construction and Beixin Road and Bridge, as well as coal chemical leaders like China Chemical and Donghua Technology [10][13]. Summary by Sections Transportation Infrastructure - Xinjiang plans to complete a transportation investment of 800 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [2][22]. - The region aims to achieve a "county-to-county" highway network and fill gaps in western railway infrastructure, indicating significant long-term construction potential [2][22]. - Key players in this sector include Xinjiang Communications Construction, Beixin Road and Bridge, and other local construction firms [10][22]. Coal Chemical Projects - Xinjiang has over 800 billion yuan in coal chemical projects under construction or planned, with significant investment expected in the coming years [6][23]. - The report forecasts annual investments of approximately 997 billion yuan in 2025, 2077 billion yuan in 2026, and 2326 billion yuan in 2027 [6][28]. - Companies such as China Chemical, Donghua Technology, and Sanwei Chemical are highlighted as primary beneficiaries of this sector's growth [10][23]. Valuation and Market Potential - China Metallurgical Group is estimated to have a total value of 718 billion yuan, with a potential upside of 71% based on current market valuation [7][31]. - China Railway Group's estimated value is 1443 billion yuan, with a potential upside of 70% [7][31]. - The report also notes the rising prices of gold and copper, suggesting a re-evaluation of the value of resource-rich construction companies [10][13]. High Dividend Stocks - Sichuan Road and Bridge is recommended for its high dividend yield, projected at 6.4% for 2025, with significant growth in net profit expected [10][9]. - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of high dividend stocks in the current market environment [10][9].