全球制造或将复苏：实物需求的新一轮上升周期 过去的几年中，海外发达经济体更加重视资本回报但对实体经济的重视程度相对不足，这体现为美国和欧元区上市公 司 ROE 中枢水平抬升和企业部门杠杆率的下降。但近期海外对于实体经济的重视程度正在提升：德国政府在上周提交 的 2025 年预算草案中提出在 2025 年投资 1200 亿欧元用于基础设施建设，同时大幅增加国防领域开支，2025 至 2029 年赤字规模扩张 8000 亿欧元，占德国 GDP 比重约 20%；美国方面，鼓励制造业回流是特朗普第二任期内重要的施政方 针之一，在刚刚签署的《大美丽法案》也有诸多条目用于鼓励制造业投资，将先进制造业投资可用于税收抵免的额度 由 25%提升至 35%，以制造生产为目的购置的固定资产可以在投入使用当年按 100%折旧进行抵扣。此外，《大美丽法 案》大幅提高了美国政府债务上限，由于当前美联储隔夜逆回购工具余额相比前两轮美国财政部补充 TGA 账户时要更 低，这可能意味着未来全球美元流动性可能会面临一定的冲击。6 月开始主要经济体制造业 PMI 处于共振修复的过程 中，这对于资产定价的意义是：有利于制造业大国的中国的资本品出口从 ...

宏观 证券研究报告 |深度研究报告 2025/7/4 财政发力线索探析 财政政策力度进阶，从"适度加力"到"更加给力"。面对更趋严峻复杂的内外环境，2025年财政政策定调"持续用力、 更加给力"，较2024年"适度加力、提质增效"更为积极，强化逆周期调节以稳定经济基本盘。具体措施包括：显著提 升支出强度与进度（预算赤字率创新高，政府债券规模扩张），优化支出结构（重点倾斜民生、消费和新质生产力）， 并持续化解地方债务、房地产及金融等重点领域风险，确保财政可持续性。 债务工具扩容提质，规模用途双向拓展。2025年政府债务工具规模与用途双扩容。特别国债方面：新增国有大行资本补 充专项，超长期特别国债规模显著增加，重点投向国家战略安全、设备更新（支持领域拓宽及补贴标准提升）和消费品 以旧换新（新增数码补贴并优化机制）。专项债限额明显提升，改革实施"负面清单"管理，扩大使用范围（允许土地 储备、存量房转保障房等），资本金支持范围新增新兴产业且比例上限提高，审核流程简化（试点省份"自审自发"）。 执行层面，1-5月新增专项债发行进度平缓但快于去年同期，募集资金主要投向基建相关，土储较去年获更多资金倾斜； 化债资金高效落地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between China and Latin American countries has entered a new stage characterized by equality, mutual benefit, innovation, openness, and people-centered development, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's speech at the China-Latin America and Caribbean Countries Forum [1] Group 1: Survey Overview - The "China-Latin America Mutual Perception" survey is the first large-scale public opinion survey conducted in Latin America, consisting of two parts: "Chinese Views on Latin America" and "Latin American Views on China" [2] - The first part of the survey collected 2,099 valid samples from 16 cities across seven regions in mainland China, while the second part gathered 3,373 valid responses from six Latin American countries [2] Group 2: Impressions and Interests - Chinese respondents associate Latin America with keywords such as "football," "enthusiasm," and "culture," while Latin Americans view China primarily through the lens of "technology" and "economy" [2][3] - A significant 97% of Chinese respondents express high interest in Latin American affairs, and 96% of Latin Americans show similar interest in Chinese matters [4] Group 3: Economic Perspectives - 40% of Chinese respondents believe that Latin America's economic prospects are "relatively good," while over 50% view it as "stable with challenges but with potential" [5] - 50% of Latin American respondents consider China's economic development prospects "very good," with 34% believing they are "good" [5] Group 4: Trade and Investment - By the end of 2023, China's direct investment stock in Latin America is expected to reach $600.8 billion, making the region the second-largest destination for Chinese overseas investment [12] - 93% of Latin American respondents believe that China's rapid development presents opportunities for the region, with many recognizing China as a key trade partner and a significant source of investment [11] Group 5: Future Cooperation - Over 60% of Latin American respondents express a desire for strengthened trade and investment cooperation with China, particularly in high-tech industries and infrastructure development [12] - The survey indicates that both Chinese and Latin American respondents view their cooperation as mutually beneficial, with over 80% of Chinese respondents affirming this sentiment [11]

Group 1 - The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia marks its 45th anniversary, with Colombia officially joining the high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative in May [2] - Bilateral trade between China and Colombia is projected to exceed $19.3 billion in 2024, representing a growth of over 1900 times compared to the initial years of diplomatic relations [2] - Colombia aims to enhance agricultural exports to China and seeks to attract more Chinese investments in agriculture, technology, and ecological protection [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies are involved in constructing the Bogotá Metro Line 1, which is the largest infrastructure project in Colombia's history [3] - A new shipping route connecting Shanghai, Peru's Chancay Port, and Colombia's Buenaventura Port was launched in February, further promoting economic cooperation and job creation in Colombia [3] - There is significant potential for agricultural technology cooperation between China and Colombia, particularly in the processing of specialty agricultural products like coffee and cocoa [3] Group 3 - The China-Latin America Forum, which has been operational for 10 years, serves as a crucial platform for regional integration and cooperation between Latin American countries and China [4] - Strengthening collaboration between Latin America and China can enhance the representation and voice of the Global South in global governance [4] - The relationship between Latin America and China is expected to deepen, with ongoing efforts to promote development agendas and enhance global dialogue [4]

"实现能源转型不仅是技术问题，更是政策、资金和区域协同的系统工程。东盟迫切需要更多外部支 持，尤其是像中国这样在能源转型实践中取得巨大成就的国家，能够在政策制定、产业协同、技术支持 以及金融服务等多个层面提供全方位的帮助。"达伍德说。 当前，许多中国企业正在东盟布局清洁能源、新能源交通及数字化基础设施等方面的业务，并通过与东 盟本地制造业深度对接，不断拓展在下游产业链的布局。 "中国企业在东盟地区的业务本地化进程正在加速。这不仅推动了东盟国家的能源结构调整，也为当地 创造了大量就业机会，促进了产业升级。中国企业的这种投资模式，不仅是单纯的资本输入，更带来了 技术转移、产业升级和能力建设，极大提升了东盟国家自主可持续发展的能力。"达伍德说。 近年来，中国与东盟的能源合作不断深化，相关领域交往日益密切。一个由东盟及各成员国的能源政策 负责人组成的代表团日前到访中国。期间，代表团参加了东盟低碳能源投资路径研讨会，并赴一些研究 机构、大学及企业进行参观。 作为代表团的主要负责人之一，东盟能源中心执行董事阿卜杜勒·拉齐布·达伍德对此次中国之行倍感兴 奋，也对中国与东盟的能源合作前景充满期待。7月1日，他在北京接受了经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Water Resources is actively promoting the construction of digital twin river basins, digital twin water networks, and digital twin engineering to enhance water management and infrastructure development [1] Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The Ministry emphasizes accelerating the construction of water infrastructure and solidly advancing the reinforcement of dangerous reservoirs and the management of flood retention areas [1] - The goal is to complete the three-year action plan for the important embankments of seven major rivers [1] Group 2: Rural Water Supply - The Ministry aims to modernize irrigation areas and implement standardized construction and management models for rural water supply, referred to as the "3+1" standard [1] - This initiative is intended to improve the safety and reliability of rural water supply systems [1] Group 3: Digital Twin Initiatives - The Ministry is enhancing the integrated monitoring and perception capabilities of water resources through the promotion of digital twin technologies [1] - The focus is on establishing a comprehensive digital twin water resources system to improve overall water management [1]

Core Insights - JD Logistics has signed a cooperation agreement with Abu Dhabi Airport Free Zone to jointly develop and operate high-standard logistics infrastructure at the Abu Dhabi Airport Free Zone, marking JD Logistics' first self-built project in the Middle East [1] - The smart logistics hub will cover an area of approximately 70,000 square meters and is expected to be operational by 2028 [1] - Once completed, the project aims to meet the local cross-border e-commerce demand [1]

证 券 研 究 报 告 反内卷的预期与现实 ——701财经委会议点评 2025年7月3日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：丁炎晨 执业编号：S0360523070005 邮箱：dingyanchen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 证 券 研 究 报 告 ┃ 摘要 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 7月1日，习近平总书记主持召开二十届中央财经委员会第六次会议。 • 中央财经委会议：召开频率降低。25/6/30政治局会议审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》，党中央决策议事协调机构职能划分 的进一步明确，政策制定与执行有望更加顺畅。中央财经委是在2018年由原中央财经领导小组改成的中共中央直属决策议事协调机构， 聚焦经济领域细分重点，2024年之前通常每年召开2-3次会议，过去两年会议频率降低，本次会议距离上一次公开披露的24/2第四 ...

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]

Group 1 - The issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated, with over 4 trillion yuan issued this year, of which nearly 40% are new special bonds [1] - The new special bonds are primarily directed towards major project construction, with 16.457 billion yuan in new local bonds issued [1] - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, accounting for 7.75% of the new special bond funds [1] Group 2 - Land reserve activities are concentrated in economically stable regions, with third and fourth-tier cities showing high participation rates, accounting for nearly 75% of acquisition amounts [2] - More than half of the local bonds issued this year are for "borrowing new to repay old," primarily to replace hidden debts, with 82.8% of the planned total already disclosed [2] - The issuance of new local bonds is expected to accelerate, with June's issuance projected at around 1 trillion yuan [3] Group 3 - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for the funding from new special bonds, with a significant emphasis on construction projects in the real estate sector [3] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is anticipated to increase in the second quarter, with an estimated total of 1.2 trillion yuan for the entire quarter [3]