Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The new orders index fell into the contraction zone, primarily due to weakened external demand and adverse weather conditions affecting production [1][2] - The production index was reported at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities despite a decline from the previous month [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in expansion at 50.3%, showing resilience and strong growth potential in this sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point [4] - Service sector activities showed stability, with a business activity index of 50.0%, reflecting positive consumer behavior during the summer season [4][5] - The construction sector experienced a slowdown due to adverse weather, with a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that despite short-term fluctuations due to weather, the foundation for economic recovery remains solid, supported by strong demand and policy backing [3][6] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service providers regarding future market conditions [5] - Continued implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand is expected to support investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises dropped to 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] - The production index was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [3][5] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [5] - The construction industry index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, and the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [5] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand, particularly in the construction sector, which saw a new orders index of 42.7% [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index for July was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating overall expansion in business activities [7] Group 4: Service Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's service trade totaled 38,872.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, with exports at 16,883 billion yuan, up 15.0%, and imports at 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2% [4][9] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 15,025.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, with significant contributions from other business services and telecommunications [9] - Travel services experienced the fastest growth, reaching 10,802.9 billion yuan, up 12.3%, with exports growing by 68.7% [9]

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month[5] - Service industry business activity index at 50.1%, a decrease from 50.5%[5] - New export orders PMI at 47.1%, down from 47.7% last month, indicating continued pressure on exports[5] High-Tech Industry Performance - High-tech industry PMI at 50.6%, slightly down from 50.9%, remaining above the threshold[5] - Production and new orders PMI for high-tech sectors at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, showing resilience compared to traditional industries[5] - Confidence in high-tech sectors bolstered by "anti-involution" policies, leading to increased expectations for production activities, with PMI rising to 52.6%[5] Market Dynamics - "Anti-involution" policies have positively impacted prices in high-tech industries, with significant increases in factory and raw material purchase price indices[5] - Service sector maintained above the threshold, driven by summer holiday effects, with indices for related sectors like rail and air transport exceeding 60.0%[5] - The ongoing economic transition emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as export momentum weakens post-Geneva negotiations[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][3] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, and small enterprises had a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [3][4] - The production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [3][4] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Indicators - The new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material inventories [4] - The employment index was 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight improvement in employment conditions within the manufacturing sector [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, remaining above the critical point [7] - The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, while the service industry index was 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points [9] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 45.7%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand [11] Group 4: Price and Employment Trends in Non-Manufacturing - The input price index was 50.3%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating an overall increase in input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [11] - The sales price index was 47.9%, down 0.9 percentage points, suggesting a decrease in overall sales prices [11] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 45.6%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions [11] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [15]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a marginal decline in manufacturing sentiment[9] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a return to contraction territory[12] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still within the expansion range[15] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand have weakened, with the supply-demand gap widening in July[9] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in external demand[12] - The marginal consumption propensity of residents is at 65.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, indicating cautious consumer spending[13] Group 3: Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to marginally improve PPI growth, supporting corporate profit expectations[2] - The BCI profit forecast index for July is at 44.26, an increase of 0.48 points, indicating improved profit expectations[18] - If inflation recovery is sustainable in Q3, the capital market may stabilize and trend positively in August[26] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts[27] - The impact of extreme weather on construction and service sectors has been significant, leading to a slowdown in expansion momentum[21][22]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from June, reflecting a decrease in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and extreme weather conditions [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, and the comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2%, suggesting overall economic output remains in an expansion phase [1][4] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index and new orders index were recorded at 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, both showing a decline from June, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% [2] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintaining PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, indicating ongoing expansion [2][3] Price Trends - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw material purchase price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, both increasing from June [3] - The rise in prices was attributed to the increase in prices of major commodities such as coal and steel, which significantly impacted the manufacturing PMI [3] Service Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight decline from June [4][5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable, with certain industries related to travel and consumption experiencing high activity levels, while construction activities slowed due to adverse weather [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic policies should be adjusted to stimulate demand, particularly through increased government investment in public goods and infrastructure [4] - The upcoming summer consumption is expected to positively influence economic activity in August, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025年7月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比6月下降0.4个 百分点；7月非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比6月下降0.4个百分点，其中，建筑业商务活动指数为 50.6%，比6月下降2.2个百分点，服务业PMI指数为50.0%，比6月下降0.1个百分点；7月综合PMI产出指 数为50.2%，比6月下降0.5个百分点。 要点解读如下 7月制造业PMI指数比上月下降0.4个百分点，基本符合市场预期。 主要原因是当月反映市场需求的新订单指数环比回落0.8个百分点至49.4%，再度进入收缩区间。我们分 析，背后可能有两个原因： 其他方面，近期"反内卷"牵动市场预期，国内主导的煤炭、钢铁等大宗商品价格快速上冲。这是当月制 造业PMI指数中两个价格指数快速走高的主要原因。我们预计，7月PPI会环比转正，同比降幅会收窄 至-3.0%左右。不过，当前工业品价格低迷主要是受消费需求不振和房地产投资下滑拖累，"反内卷"对 工业品价格及整体物价的推升作用有待进一步观察。另外值得注意的是，7月中型企业PMI指数继续回 升，而大型、小型企业PMI指数都出现0.9个百分点的回落，其中大型企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in July showed a short-term fluctuation, dropping to 49.3%, while the overall economic output remains in an expansion phase, supported by non-manufacturing indices above 50% [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, and the new export orders index was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [1]. - Despite weak market demand, the production index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for the third consecutive month [1]. Key Industries - The equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 1.1 percentage points but still in the expansion zone; high-tech manufacturing PMI was 50.6%, maintaining expansion for six months [2]. - Large enterprises showed stable expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [2]. Price Indices - The raw material purchase price index for manufacturing was 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone after four months below 50% [2]. - The factory price index was 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [2]. Market Expectations - The manufacturing production and operation activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, with the service sector at 50% and construction at 50.6%, both remaining in the expansion zone [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index was 55.8%, reflecting optimism among most non-manufacturing enterprises [3]. Future Outlook - It is anticipated that construction activities will rebound as the rainy season ends, supported by policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [4].