Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.26, while spot gold opened at $3430.30 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $3439.01 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index rise by 0.28% to 98.14, and spot gold increased by 1.38% to $3431.99 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals experienced declines, with spot silver down 0.12% to $36.29 per ounce, platinum down 5.25% to $1228.33 per ounce, and palladium down 3.18% to $1028.20 per ounce [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - As of June 13, COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 1175.39 tons, while COMEX silver inventory increased by 8.07 tons to 15503.85 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 940.49 tons, whereas SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 53.72 tons to 14675.36 tons [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel and Iran engaged in mutual attacks over the weekend, resulting in multiple casualties [4] - Israeli authorities reported at least 10 fatalities, including children, while Iran claimed that at least 138 people have died in Israeli attacks since last Friday, with a significant number being children [5] - Reports indicate that at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in the Israeli strikes [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical tensions and the decline of the US dollar index have led to a strong performance in gold prices, with COMEX gold rising 3.65% to $3,452.60 per ounce this week [23][25] - The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts this year, the first likely in September [3][43] - The uncertainty in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and Israel, is contributing to a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [5][17] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX silver increased by 0.66% to $36.37 per ounce, while SHFE gold rose 1.42% to ¥794.36 per gram [23][25] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 201,954.41 troy ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 1,090,806.40 ounces [25] - The gold-silver ratio rose by 2.97% to 94.93 this week [25] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper fell 0.24% to $9,647.50 per ton, while aluminum rose 2.10% to $2,503.00 per ton [49] - SHFE copper decreased by 1.17% to ¥78,010.00 per ton, and aluminum increased by 1.84% to ¥20,440.00 per ton [49] - The supply of copper is expected to tighten due to maintenance plans at domestic smelters and the ongoing geopolitical situation [7][8] Copper - The supply side is affected by a downward adjustment in the annual production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula project and ongoing maintenance at the Cobre copper mine [7][44] - Domestic copper rod enterprises' weekly operating rate rose to 73.21%, but actual purchases are subdued due to high prices [7] - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 5.08% to 101,900 tons, while LME inventory fell by 13.54% to 114,500 tons [74] Aluminum - The aluminum industry operates at over 95% capacity, with minor maintenance plans causing limited supply disruptions [9][78] - Demand for aluminum products has softened, with a decrease in operating rates for various aluminum products [9][78] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 6.91% to 110,000 tons, while LME inventory fell by 2.92% to 353,200 tons [11][78] Zinc - Zinc prices are under pressure due to weak demand, with domestic zinc ore processing fees rising [79] - SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 3.29% to 45,466 tons, while LME inventory fell by 4.36% to 131,000 tons [79]

Group 1 - Israel launched attacks on multiple targets in Iran, causing global stock indices to decline, with WTI crude oil futures surging nearly 14% and COMEX gold futures rising by 2% [1] - A-shares closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.10%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.13%. Sectors such as gold, oil, nuclear pollution prevention, and military industry saw significant gains [1] - The 62nd session of the "Digging Gold" competition concluded, with the champion achieving a return of 55.64%, the runner-up 48.48%, and the third place 46.61%. Participants capitalized on opportunities in blockchain, rare earth permanent magnets, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] Group 2 - The competition is currently in a structural market phase, and participants can join a competition group to exchange valuable information and market insights [2] - The champion's successful investments included medical beauty stocks, agricultural chemicals, and rare earth permanent magnets, indicating strong market trend awareness [5] - Participants utilized "Fire Line Quick Review" to identify opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and silver sectors, with notable stocks performing well [6][8] Group 3 - The upcoming 63rd session of the competition will allow participants to simulate trading with a virtual capital of 500,000 yuan, with registration from June 14 to June 20 and the competition running from June 16 to June 20 [9] - Weekly cash rewards are available for positive returns, with the first place receiving 688 yuan and subsequent places receiving varying amounts [9][10] - Participants can gain access to "Fire Line Quick Review" for five days upon successful registration, with additional benefits for top performers [12]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3391.40 with a change of 61.70 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 36.18 with a change of -0.02 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1269.00 with a change of 51.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1072.00 with a change of 10.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9680.00 with a change of -97.50 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest trading data for certain items are - (not specified), 1226.15, 937.91, 14729.08, 1347.54, 2, 2 respectively [1] - The changes in trading data are - (not specified), -3.67, 3.72, 0.00, 0.00, 1.00, 0.00 respectively [1] Group 3: Precious Metal Ratios and Related Information - Information about COMEX silver inventory,上期所白银库存, gold ETF持仓, silver ETF持仓, 上金所白银库存, 上金所黄金递延费支付方向, 上金所白银递延费支付方向 is presented but specific values are not fully shown [1] - The report also mentions升贴水、库存、ETF持仓变化 [2] Group 4: Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is struggling to maintain the 3400-point level, with significant support from major financial institutions such as banks, brokerages, and insurance companies [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes not keeping pace, leading to increased volatility and sector rotation among hot sectors like innovative drugs, CPO, IP economy, precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and automotive parts [1] Key News - Ant Group concept stocks surged in Hong Kong, with Yunfeng Financial rising by 100% at one point and closing up approximately 60%, following news that Ant Group plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Singapore and Hong Kong [2] - The innovative drug sector continues to rise, with stock prices increasing while price-to-earnings ratios are decreasing, indicating a potential value reassessment as corporate earnings growth outpaces stock price increases [2][4] Precious Metals - Gold stocks in A-shares experienced a sudden surge, with Hengbang Co. and Chaohongji both hitting the daily limit, driven by heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] - Platinum and silver have also seen significant price increases, with platinum rising nearly 40% this year, surpassing gold's performance, and silver reaching a 13-year high above $36 per ounce [4][5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand structure for platinum shows that 40% is used in automotive catalysts, 25% in jewelry, 20% for industrial purposes, and 9% for investment [6] - Silver's demand structure indicates that industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, jewelry for 17.9%, investment for 16.4%, and other uses for the remainder [7] - The supply-demand gap for platinum is expected to widen, with the World Platinum Investment Council projecting the lowest total supply in five years by 2025, while investment demand is significantly increasing [8] - The global industrial demand for silver is anticipated to exceed 55% by the end of 2025, with a projected supply gap of 8,800 tons, driven by the energy revolution and technological advancements [8] Investment Implications - The rise of white metals like silver and platinum is expected to boost the precious metals sector, with companies involved in the silver and platinum supply chain likely to benefit from this trend [8]

参考观点：需关注中美谈判进展及美联储政策落地节奏，防范外部扰动引发的波动，短期可 沿 5 日均线持有，中证 500、1000 指数技术面偏强，但需警惕量能持续性不足风险，结合期 权 VIX 波动率监测，若 PCR 指标回升至 1.2 附近，可考虑对冲保护。 原油 宏观与地缘：中美第二轮判"原则上达成框架协议"，市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价 格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑，但汽柴油、以及 燃料油库存持续增加。汽柴油裂解利润下滑，进一步拖拽原油需求。但同时俄乌地缘再度激 化，美伊谈判也再现波折，中东局势不稳，OPEC＋增产会议达成共识的可能性存疑，供给不 确定性大幅提高。供给端方面，OPEC+7 月同意增产 41.1 万桶/日，关注后续进一步 OPEC 会 议情况。 参考观点：WTI 主力短期关注 65 美元/桶附近能否持续突破。中长期看，若无重大地缘影响 供给，则原油上方高度有限。 黄金 宏观 股指 市场分析：全球市场呈现分化格局 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the domestic financial market, with significant movements in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index, indicating a positive market sentiment [2][7] - The report notes a 15.61% year-on-year increase in the national futures market transaction volume from January to May, although May saw a decline of 4.51% compared to the previous year [4] - The report emphasizes the collaboration between companies and technological advancements, such as the partnership between Fengzhushou and ByteDance's cloud service platform [6] Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3402.32, up by 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.83% to 10246.02 [2] - The market experienced a strong rebound on June 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3413 points before a slight pullback [7] - The overall trading volume for the day was 1.26 trillion, a decrease of 159.9 billion from the previous trading day [7] Industry Developments - The report mentions that China has been Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with plans to implement zero tariffs on 100% of products for 53 African countries [4] - Several automotive companies announced a unified payment term of 60 days, impacting related stocks such as BYD and Seres [5] - The gaming industry in Zhejiang is receiving support for international expansion, with companies like Perfect World and Zhejiang Shuzhi Culture being highlighted [5] Company Focus - Fengzhushou (301382) is collaborating with ByteDance's Volcano Engine to launch the P8-SDWAN device [6] - Guangting Information (301221) plans to acquire 100% of Kaima Technology for a transaction value of 360 million [6] - Huadong Pharmaceutical (000963) received clinical trial approval for a foam formulation of 0.3% Roflumilast [6] - Chutianlong (003040) is developing a digital RMB smart contract platform in collaboration with eight second-tier operating institutions and Huawei [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [83] Core Insights - The supply of silver is gradually becoming rigid, with a cost center trend on the rise. The global silver supply from 2016 to 2024 is expected to have a CAGR of -0.5% [2][8] - Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, with a projected 3.6% year-on-year increase in 2024, driven primarily by the photovoltaic sector [2][33] - The silver price is expected to rise due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio likely to gradually converge [2][71] Supply Summary - The global silver supply is expected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [8] - The structure of silver supply shows that mined silver accounts for 80.8% of total supply, with by-product silver making up about 19.1% [8][14] - The average cash cost of silver production is projected to be $7.64 per ounce in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.6% from 2018 to 2024 [20][24] Demand Summary - Industrial demand for silver is projected to account for about 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant contributions from the photovoltaic sector [32][33] - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic sector is expected to grow, with a projected increase of 2.6% in 2024, reaching 6,147 tons [33][37] - Jewelry demand is expected to remain relatively stable, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024, reaching 6,491 tons [46] Price Summary - The silver price is anticipated to gradually rise, supported by the industrial demand and a favorable monetary environment [71][78] - The current high gold-silver ratio is expected to trend towards convergence, driven by the industrial attributes of silver [71][73] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources, which are expected to benefit from the rising silver price and demand dynamics [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...