交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.3174%，环比增加 0.239个百分点，全国样本企业出货33.13万吨，环比增加13.98%,样本企业产量为 55.6万吨，环比增加0.72%,样本企业装置检修量预估为60.8万吨，环比减少10.05%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.5%，环比增加0.01个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The asphalt market is showing a trend of oscillating downward. The supply side has a slightly increased production rate but a significant reduction in planned production for November. The downstream industry's production rate has mostly increased, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline slightly, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt planned production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 16.9%, and a decrease of 274,000 tons year-on-year, a decrease of 11.0% [1]. - Last week, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but restricted by funds and weather [1]. - Last week, the main refineries in North China maintained stable production and fulfilled contracts for shipment, with a significant increase in shipment volume. The national shipment volume increased by 13.98% week-on-week to 331,300 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week-on-week, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The production of Sinochem Quanzhou and some main refineries is intermittent, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Projects in many northern regions are rushing to complete work, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. In the south, there is more inquiry for low-priced goods. Recently, the market has digested the news of sanctions on Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The crude oil price is oscillating. The long-term resources of refineries are being released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price has followed the decline, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 2.00% to 3,193 yuan per ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,189 yuan per ton, and the highest price was 3,245 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 892 to 206,960 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong has dropped to 3,200 yuan per ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has risen to 7 yuan per ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou have resumed asphalt production. The asphalt production rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week-on-week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was -2.7%, a slight rebound from -3.3% from January - August 2025 but still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1% [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the production rates of most downstream industries of asphalt increased. The production rate of road asphalt increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week-on-week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - From the perspective of the stock of social financing, from January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of the stock of social financing was 8.7%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - August. In September, the newly added social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. - As of the week ending October 31, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week ending October 24, and the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 3.15%, while the chemical machinery index decreased by 0.71%. The pharmaceutical index rose by 2.38%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index saw a significant increase of 5.83% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index rose by 2.59%, the oil extraction index increased by 7.68%, and the oil trading index saw a rise of 7.1% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices experienced a slight decline, with the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $60.98 per barrel, down 0.85% from October 24. The Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.07 per barrel, down 1.32% [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with the highest price increases included lithium battery electrolyte, which rose by 18.42%, liquid chlorine up by 12.78%, vitamin E increased by 8.7%, sulfur up by 6.04%, and paraquat 42% mother liquor up by 5.38%. The products with the largest price declines included butadiene down by 10.35%, acetic acid down by 8.36%, coal tar down by 4.94%, diglycol down by 4.53%, and isooctyl acrylate down by 4.32% [1] Group 4: Stock Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five chemical companies in the stock market with the highest price increases were Pioneer Materials up by 43.49%, Zhenhua Shares up by 34.3%, Duofluor up by 33.15%, Yashi Chuangneng up by 31.72%, and Dongfang Tieta up by 23.43%. The companies with the largest price declines included Shilong Industrial down by 21.91%, Nongxin Technology down by 13.04%, Zhengdan Shares down by 10.58%, Shuiyang Shares down by 10.32%, and Lanfeng Biochemical down by 9.4% [2]

卓创资讯数据显示，截至10月底，中国汽柴油出口套利窗口开启，出口利润分别在206元/吨和468元/ 吨。10月国际油价均价水平环比下跌，叠加国内汽柴油需求偏弱掣肘，汽柴油市场价格偏弱运行，而国 际市场价格下旬受原油反弹带动涨势较快，因此汽柴油出口套利窗口开启。11月国内汽油需求疲软柴油 刚需或有好转，国内市场价格以柴强汽弱表现为主，但国际市场价格向下空间有限，预计出口套利表现 仍偏好。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 成品油：汽柴油出口套利空间开启 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 7 on November 3, with a weekly change of -4 [4][12] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was 117 on November 3, with a daily change of 11 and a weekly change of -4 [4][12] - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) was 87 on November 3, with a daily change of -59 and a weekly change of -14 [4][12] - The 12 - 01 spread was 0 on November 3, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -10 [4][12] - The 12 - 03 spread was -32 on November 3, with a daily change of -16 and a weekly change of -20 [4][12] - The 01 - 02 spread was -13 on November 3, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of -6 [4][12] 3.2 BU Main Contract (01) - The price of the BU main contract (01) was 3233 on November 3, with a daily change of -11 and a weekly change of -46 [4][12] - The trading volume was 337,883 on November 3, with a daily change of 104,513 and a weekly change of 112,136 [4][12] - The open interest was 349,765 on November 3, with a daily change of 9,483 and a weekly change of 5,356 [4][12] - The combined volume was 6,940 on November 3, with a daily change of -180 and a weekly change of -2,980 [4][12] 3.3 Spot Market - The price of Brent crude oil was 65.1 on November 3, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of -0.6 [4][12] - The price of Jingbo was 3210 on November 3, with a daily change of -20 and a weekly change of -110 [4][12] - The price of Hongrun was 3160 on November 3, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] - The price of Zhenjiang Warehouse was 3350 on November 3, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [4][12] - The price of Foshan Warehouse was 3320 on November 3, with a daily change of -70 and a weekly change of -60 [4][12] 3.4 Asphalt Marrow Profit - The asphalt Marrow profit was 207 on November 3, with no daily change and a weekly change of -54 [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - Baoli International is facing significant challenges in its main business of asphalt, leading the company to seek transformation and upgrades through investment in the semiconductor industry [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Baoli International reported total revenue of 1.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.42% [2][3]. - The company incurred a net loss attributable to shareholders of 10.13 million yuan, compared to a profit of 6.97 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -185 million yuan, down from 138 million yuan in the previous year [1][2]. Business Segments - Baoli International's main business includes "asphalt + general aviation," with the asphalt segment being the larger component [2][3]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to decreased asphalt sales, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and increased credit impairment losses [3]. Corporate Actions - The company approved a capital reduction for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangsu Baoli Aviation Equipment Investment Co., Ltd., reducing its registered capital from 200 million yuan to 50 million yuan [3]. - Baoli International's controlling shareholder changed to Chizhou Investment Technology, with a performance commitment from the previous controlling shareholder to ensure a cumulative net profit of no less than 20 million yuan for 2024 and 2025 [3]. Investment in Semiconductor - In September, Baoli International announced plans to invest up to 47.43 million yuan in the semiconductor sector by acquiring a stake in Nanjing Hongtai Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. [4]. - The company completed the acquisition of 2.6354% of Hongtai Technology, which specializes in semiconductor testing equipment [4]. - Baoli International aims to invest in the downstream chip-related industry chain to create business synergies with Hongtai Technology [6]. Performance of Hongtai Technology - Hongtai Technology has experienced a significant decline in performance, with revenues of 221 million yuan in 2023, dropping to 172 million yuan in 2024, and 25.65 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The company reported a net profit of 8.15 million yuan in 2023, followed by losses of 58.32 million yuan in 2024 and 18.25 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, international oil prices experienced a slight decline due to market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of sanctions on Russia, OPEC+'s inclination to continue modest production increases in December, and increased Iraqi exports in September, leading to concerns about oversupply. However, positive EIA inventory data, optimistic news from US-China leadership talks, and a Federal Reserve interest rate cut contributed to a rebound in oil prices later in the week [2][9] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.77 per barrel, down $0.43 (-0.66%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.98 per barrel, down $0.52 (-0.85%) [2][31] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a slight increase of 0.05% during the same week, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.43% [10][13] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil price decreased by 0.66% and WTI crude oil price decreased by 0.85% as of October 31, 2025 [2][31] - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable, while ESPO crude saw a decline of 1.71% [31] Offshore Drilling Services - As of October 27, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 369, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms was 130, down by 2 [37] US Oil Supply - As of October 24, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels per day, an increase of 15,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 414 [61][70] US Oil Demand - US refinery crude processing volume was 15.219 million barrels per day, down by 511,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 86.60%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [66][73] US Oil Inventory - As of October 24, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 825 million barrels, a decrease of 6.325 million barrels (-0.76%). Strategic oil inventory increased by 533,000 barrels (+0.13%), while commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels (-1.62%) [82]

Core Points - The stock price of International Industry (000159) closed at 6.05 yuan as of October 31, 2025, down 0.49% from the previous week [1] - The company reported a total market capitalization of 2.908 billion yuan, ranking 62nd out of 64 in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4602nd out of 5163 in the A-share market [1] Shareholder Changes - As of October 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for International Industry was 41,000, a decrease of 653 shareholders or 1.57% from October 10 [2][5] - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 11,500 shares to 11,700 shares, with an average holding value of 69,900 yuan [2] Performance Disclosure - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.47% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 20.109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.45% [3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 20.201 million yuan, down 51.53% year-on-year [3] - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 356 million yuan, down 34.29% year-on-year, with a net loss of 4.6608 million yuan, but an increase of 99.02% year-on-year [3] - The company's debt ratio stood at 43.35%, with financial expenses amounting to 36.6248 million yuan and a gross margin of 10.82% [3] Company Announcements - On October 30, 2025, International Industry announced that its application for a specific stock issuance has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, pending further review and approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate. The supply side shows a slight change in production, with the开工 rate increasing slightly but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The demand side is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating, and it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 0.454 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 0.274 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries have intermittent production, and the asphalt output will slightly decrease [1]. - Demand: This week, most of the开工 rates of downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt开工 rate increased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, but is restricted by funds and weather. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, and the market is actively shipping, while the south is inquiring about low - priced goods [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1]. - Price: The market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries has not fundamentally changed. The crude oil price is oscillating. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has dropped significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.58% to 3,244 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,225 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,270 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3,151 to 199,947 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,270 yuan/ton, and the basis of asphalt contract 01 fell to 26 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Zhonghai Yingkou resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工 rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Demand - related indicators: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight increase from - 3.3% from January to August. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, a further decline from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Social financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from January to August. In September, the new social financing was as high as 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year under a high base [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 31, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.3% compared with the week of October 24 and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks jointly affected prices. In the first half of October, the sharp decline in oil prices under macro - risks significantly affected the cost of asphalt negatively. The demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, while supply remained high, increasing the inventory pressure in the industry chain and pressuring the spot price. In the second half of October, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs, but the supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum. In the future, oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5][40] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Preface and Overview - **Market Review**: In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [4] - **Market Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [6] 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: Similar to the preface, in October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [11] - **Supply Overview**: From January to September 2025, China's asphalt production was 20.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26 million tons or 12%. In September, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. From January to August 2025, asphalt imports were 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.203 million tons (- 7.9%). In September, imports were 0.342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.073 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.137 million tons. From January to September, imports were 2.717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.066 million tons (- 2.4%) [15][16] - **Demand Overview**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt demand was weak. In the north, demand declined after a brief pre - holiday rush due to cooling and rain. In the south, demand was slow to release due to typhoons, rain, and capital constraints. Only a small amount of demand was supported in southern Xinjiang and parts of the southwest. Refinery shipments were at a low level, and terminal demand showed that the road modified asphalt start - up rate was slowly rising but still at a low level, while the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to the lowest level [28] - **Inventory and Valuation**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt refinery inventories increased overall. Social inventories decreased overall, with a significant difference in the inventory consumption rhythm between the north and the south. The asphalt processing profit increased by about 25 yuan/ton compared to September, and the diluted asphalt premium decreased by 1.7 to - 8.2 US dollars/barrel. The basis in Shandong decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 171 yuan/ton, the basis in South China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China increased by 25 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [30][33] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [40]