本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月规上工业原油加工量同比增长3.9%】12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，11月份规上工业原油加 工量6083万吨，同比增长3.9%，日均加工量202.8万吨。 1—11月份，规上工业原油加工量67507万吨， 同比增长4.0%。 ...

沥青：委内局势再升温， 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,962 | 0.07% | 2,963 | 0.03% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,980 | 0.24% | 2,981 | 0.03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 311,581 | 55,579 | 214,417 | 6,116 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 89,676 | 18,263 | 95,747 | 1,889 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54600 | 47920 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

（文章来源：国家统计局） 国家统计局数据显示，11月份，规上工业原油加工量6083万吨，同比增长3.9%；日均加工量202.8万 吨。1—11月份，规上工业原油加工量67507万吨，同比增长4.0%。 ...

新 加 坡 燃 料 油 现 货 | 日期 | FOB 380cst | FOB VLSFO | 380基差 | 高硫内外价差 | 低硫内外价差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/08 | 343.53 | 425.03 | -6.40 | 2.1 | 4.5 | | 2025/12/09 | 333.81 | 415.01 | -5.22 | 1.7 | 4.2 | | 2025/12/10 | 330.84 | 416.96 | -5.85 | -0.2 | 3.8 | | 2025/12/11 | 328.65 | 410.80 | -5.35 | 0.8 | 3.7 | | 2025/12/12 | 331.79 | 416.24 | -4.45 | 3.3 | 6.1 | | 变化 | 3.14 | 5.44 | 0.90 | 2.5 | 2.4 | | 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU ...

晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】财政发力，社融回稳——2025 年 11 月金融数据点评 得益于财政加力，11 月金融数据有所回稳，具体表现为地方债供给提速减少了对社 融增速的拖累，以及财政支出加快转化为一般存款从而支撑货币供应表现。但信贷结 构短期化更多反映了银行调节指标的需求，以及内生性增长动能不足的顽疾。此次金 融数据的亮点则在于，流动性环境友好，企业债融资大幅增长对社融构成积极贡献。 风险提示：财政刺激政策落地不及预期；流动性投放有缺口导致资金面出现波动。 【策略】新一轮政策部署护航，A 股跨年行情可期——策略周专题（2025 年 12 月第 2 期） 2025 年 12 月 15 日 | | 商品市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | SHFESHFE 黄金 | 970.66 | 1.33 | | SHFESHFE 燃油 | 2368 | -0.59 | | SHFESHFE 铜 | 94080 | 2.03 | | SHFESHFE 锌 | 23605 | 2.65 | | SHFESHFE 铝 | 22170 | 0.91 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that international oil prices have been fluctuating downwards due to oversupply pressures and geopolitical tensions, despite support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][9] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.12 per barrel, down $2.63 (-4.13%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.44 per barrel, down $2.64 (-4.39%) [23] - The report indicates a significant increase in U.S. crude oil production, reaching 13.853 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs increasing to 414 [40][41] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of December 12, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $61.12 and $57.44 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decline of 4.13% and 4.39% from the previous week [23][9] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms remained at 368, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 129 [26] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.853 million barrels per day, an increase of 38,000 barrels from the previous week [40] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by one to 414 [40] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing decreased to 16.86 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.50%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous week [51] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 838 million barrels, a decrease of 1.564 million barrels (-0.19%) from the previous week [58] - Strategic oil reserves increased by 248,000 barrels (+0.06%) to 412 million barrels [58] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年12月14日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：弱势仍在，底部初现 | 本周燃料油市场仍然偏弱，价格延续小幅下跌趋势。高硫方面，中东出口量再次增长，同时拉美方向高硫出口也有回升迹象，但新加坡、马 | 观点 | 来西亚发货数量维持低位，整个新加坡市场现货库存仍在累积，导致现货价格维持弱势。但同时，从船期数据来看，俄罗斯的出口已经开始 持续下滑，浮仓数量继续上升，意味着后续俄罗斯的供应可能将无法向此前一样流入现货市场，这将对高硫价格形成支撑。低硫方面，巴西 炼厂即将在本月逐步恢复开工，从而对市场产生压力，同时Dangote炼厂的FCC装置检修将持续至1月，非洲方向的低硫现货也将继续流向亚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 太。但最新消息显示，Al-Zour炼 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the crude oil showed a weak performance, but the escalating situation in Venezuela and Hebei's high - priced (3000 yuan/ton) attempt at winter storage drove BU to deviate from crude oil and strengthen slightly in the middle of the week [4] - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 453 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuation range of the asphalt market was between 3081 - 3086 yuan/ton. This week, the decline of the average spot price of asphalt slowed down, and the price fluctuation range narrowed [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overview - Supply: From December 4 - 10, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. Although some refineries resumed production or increased production, the continuous shutdown of a large device in Hebei Xinhai and the low - to - medium - load production of major refineries in East China led to the decline [4] - Demand: From December 3 - 9, 2025, the total sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8%. In North China, the overall supply decreased, and refineries mainly controlled the volume to deliver previous contracts, resulting in a decrease in shipments. In Northeast and Northwest China, major refineries increased production, driving up the shipment volume [4] - Valuation: The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 453 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3081 - 3086 yuan/ton, with a slowdown in the decline of the average price and a narrowing of the fluctuation range. Five regions saw price drops with a decline of 0.9% - 5.4%, and the price in the Northwest dropped the most by 5.4%. Only one region, Northeast China, saw a price increase [4] Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost end involves Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also alternative raw materials such as SC, Oman crude oil, Basra heavy oil, and Kuwait heavy oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields, for example, Ma Rui crude oil has a yield of 55% - 60% [7] - Futures: Data on futures - related aspects such as trading volume, open interest, and price trends of Brent, WTI, and SC are presented through charts [11] - Spot: Information on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions and the price differences between regions is shown, along with the production profit margin of asphalt in Shandong [12] - Spread: Data on the basis and monthly spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in North China, Shandong, and the Yangtze River Delta, as well as the monthly spread between different contract months [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is distributed in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, ship fuel market, coking market, and export market. Seasonal factors have a limited impact. This week, the total sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 384,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8%. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises was 9.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [20][24] - Supply: - Output: From December 2 - 8, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 514,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons (1.8%) and a year - on - year decrease of 6,000 tons (1.2%). The cumulative output from January - December was 29.531 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.16 million tons (7.9%) [29] - Inventory: As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 618,000 tons, a 2.5% decrease from December 8. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.036 million tons, remaining stable compared to December 8 [29] - Start - up: Data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions (total, Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China - Central China, South China - Southwest, and Northeast) are presented through charts [31][33][35] - Inventory Rate: Data on the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions (total, North China - Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, South China) are presented through charts [41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and weak cost support, leading to a downward trend in chemical product price spreads [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2527.61 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 22.27 CNY/ton (+0.89%), while the international key refining project price spread is 1330.98 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 6.23 CNY/ton (-0.47%) [3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 62.00 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.73% [2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - Positive signals in China-US trade relations boosted market risk appetite, while concerns over Russian supply supported international oil prices [2] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices on December 12, 2025, were 61.12 USD/barrel and 57.44 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 2.63 USD/barrel and 2.64 USD/barrel from December 5, 2025 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel and aviation kerosene prices in Southeast Asia experiencing minor increases, while other regions saw price declines [2] Chemical Sector - The industry is entering a demand off-season, with weak cost support leading to a decline in chemical product prices and spreads [2] - Polyolefins prices and spreads have decreased due to a continuous decline in terminal operating levels [2] - EVA prices have dropped due to supply pressure from new installations and weak demand, with the average price at 10028.57 CNY/ton [2] - Benzene prices remained stable, with a slight increase in spreads, while styrene prices increased due to tight supply [2] Major Refining Companies - Stock price changes for six major private refining companies as of December 12, 2025, include: Rongsheng Petrochemical (-4.69%), Hengli Petrochemical (-5.22%), Dongfang Shenghong (-0.96%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-1.09%), Tongkun Co. (-6.62%), and Xin Fengming (-9.99%) [2]

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国石油焦产量为268万吨，同比下降0.5%；2025年1-10月中国 石油焦累计产量为2617.4万吨，累计下降4%。 2020-2025年1-10月中国石油焦产量统计图 上市企业：华锦股份（000059）,远兴能源（000683）,上海石化（600688）,华西能源（002630）,万华化 学（600309）,恒力石化（600346）,荣盛石化（002493）,新奥股份（600803）,中油资本（000617） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国石油焦行业发展形势分析及投资潜力研究报告》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...