Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - sulfur spot window transaction prices remain stable at a high level. Geopolitical and macro - disturbances are not completely settled. There are export restrictions and concerns in major fuel supply areas such as Russia and Iran. The current situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter still exists. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver. Russian and Iranian near - end logistics supply remains stable for the time being. On the demand side, after Venezuelan oil is restricted, the market expects Chinese local refineries to import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes, and the increase in state - owned procurement reflects the feedstock demand [7]. - Low - sulfur near - end supply export has a significant increase. The gasoline unit of Dangote refinery has a delayed return from maintenance, and the low - sulfur supply remains at a high level during this period. Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery has fully resumed production after a long - term unplanned shutdown, with record - high low - sulfur exports in January, especially to the Pan - Singapore direction. South Sudan has taken over the main security control of the Heglig oilfield, and energy supply is gradually recovering [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: FU主力 price on February 9, 2026, was 2794, down 37 from February 6; LU主力 price was 3248, down 50 from February 6 [3]. - **Futures Positions and Changes**: FU主力持仓 on February 9 was 28.1 (in ten thousand hands), down 0.1 from February 6; LU主力持仓 was 7.0 (in ten thousand hands), down 0.6 from February 6 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: FU仓单 was 9930 tons, unchanged from February 6; LU仓单 was 23140, unchanged from February 6 [3]. - **Spread Data**: FU5 - 9 was 93, up 1 from February 6; LU3 - 4 was - 19, down 35 from February 6; LU - FU主力价差 was 454, down 13 from February 6; FU05 - 外盘04 was 14.1, up 1.5 from February 6; LU03 - 外盘02 was 14.8, down 6.1 from February 6 [3]. Part 2: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: In the Singapore paper - based market, the high - sulfur Mar/Apr month - spread dropped 0.25 to 5.50 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Mar/Apr month - spread rose 0.25 to 1.00 US dollars/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's total oil exports in January were 10.57 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%, the highest monthly export volume since March 2023 [6]. Part 3: Related Attachments - **Graphs**: There are graphs including Singapore high - sulfur cracking, Singapore low - sulfur cracking, Singapore gasoline cracking, Singapore 10ppm diesel cracking, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10][12][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of asphalt is weak in the short - term. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][20] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [3] - This week, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt start - up rate increased slightly from a low level [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transport from January to December was - 6.0%, a further decline from - 4.7% from January to November. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, a further decline from - 1.1% from January to November [29] - After the price increase in Shandong last week, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly. The national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3][25] 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [34] 3.4 Price - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [16] 3.5 Impact of Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. Large trader Vitol China quotes Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5/barrel, much smaller than the $13/barrel discount in December 2025. Indian Oil executives said that Venezuelan oil is quoted at a discount of $4 - 5/barrel compared with Dubai crude oil. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [3] - It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile. The US has reduced the tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In February 2026, the domestic refinery asphalt production plan was 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 26.1266%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 436,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 1.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.78%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, and supply pressure may further decrease next week [8]. - Demand side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 24.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 4.6163%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 15%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was 88.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1040.00%. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit was 81.8643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.51%. The asphalt processing profit decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the short - term strengthening [8]. - Overall expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently to relieve supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is weak, and overall demand is lower than expected. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2604 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3420 [9]. - Factors affecting the market: Bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support; bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Supply pressure is high, but refineries' production reduction eases the pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the off - season has a negative impact on demand [8]. - Cost: Crude oil price strengthening provides cost support [8]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2604 in the range of 3352 - 3420 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price and Basis**: On February 6th, the Shandong spot price was 3240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 04 contract was - 161 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 938,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16%; factory inventory was 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 1.01 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.24%. Social inventory is continuously accumulating, factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and port inventory is continuously accumulating [9]. - **Market Trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 04 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [9]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report provides the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [20][22]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2026 [25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crack spreads from 2020 to 2026 [31][32]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The report provides the historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2026 [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [38]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2026 [47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [50]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2026 [53]. - **Marrey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The report presents the historical trends of Marrey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [58]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2026 [60]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2023 to 2026 [63]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [66]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [73]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [76]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [79]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [82]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [88]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [91]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: The report presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [92]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion**: The report shows the historical trends of the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [92]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [95][97]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: The report presents the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2026 [103]. - **Downstream开工率**: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane开工率 from 2021 to 2026 [106][107]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including monthly production, import, export, downstream demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [110].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices due to geopolitical developments and supply dynamics, with a recent rebound in prices following a period of decline [1][2]. Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%) from the previous week, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.55 per barrel, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2]. - The global number of offshore self-elevating drilling rigs decreased by 6 to 370, with reductions in Southeast Asia, North America, and other regions [3]. - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3]. - U.S. total crude oil inventory stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [4]. - The price of biodiesel and biojet fuel remained stable, with the FOB price for ester-based biodiesel at $1,150 per ton [5]. Group 3 - Related companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, asphalt prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost - end crude oil. The main factor influencing crude oil is geopolitics, but small - scale geopolitical frictions cannot reverse the weak fundamentals and oversupply situation of crude oil. [1] - Due to the continuous slump in domestic diesel prices and the large inventory pressure of refined oil in some Shandong refineries, the suppression of asphalt by full - storage may lead to a smooth decline in prices when the rigid demand after the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations. [1] - As the holiday approaches, the trading enthusiasm of asphalt may gradually fade, and investors need to pay attention to position risk control before the festival. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As the holiday approaches, the spot - end has "celebrated the New Year in advance", and the demand has dropped to zero. The previous continuous premium increase in the futures market has not been fully followed by the spot market. [1] - The increase in the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has led some Shandong refineries to switch to other heavy - oil resources. The so - called raw material shortage is not the key factor restricting the refinery's operating rate, but it does have a certain impact on the long - term cost valuation. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The update of the basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations is suspended due to compliance requirements. The update of the recent strategy review is also suspended. [10] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the coming month is 2800 - 3150 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.63% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.76%. [10] - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce capital costs. [10] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums. [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have increased the upward elasticity of crude oil prices, and the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has risen. [11][13] - **Negative Information**: No specific negative information was provided in the text. - **Spot Transaction Information**: This week, asphalt prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the futures market were favorable, and there was some rush - work demand in the south. However, in the north, the rigid demand stagnated, and the overall sales volume decreased. [15][16] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Geopolitical situation changes, including the latest shipping and arrival logistics of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, the export and shipment of Russian crude oil, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the changes in floating storage inventory at sea. [17][22] - The progress and results of the subsequent US - Iran negotiations. [22] - The end of the asphalt consumption peak season, with demand under pressure. [17] - The US may cause the geopolitical premium of crude oil to decline by urging Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue. [17] - The US may issue more threats of imposing tariffs under the pretext of national security. [17] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the asphalt futures price showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key asphalt seats has decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future market. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [18] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure weakened, with the futures market at a premium. Frequent geopolitical disturbances supported market activity through low - price contract resources despite weak demand. [21] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The absolute price of asphalt jumped due to geopolitical factors, but the calendar spread structure remained in a weak C - structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the approaching off - season. [39] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Coking Material Market**: As of February 5th (compared with January 29th), the price of Shandong coking materials increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3650 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the refined oil market was positive, and the replenishment enthusiasm of middle - and lower - stream users was high, leading to a slight rebound in coking material prices. [43] - **Asphalt Market**: The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the previous strong crude oil price supported the asphalt futures market, the weak demand led to few spot transactions. In the short term, the off - season demand and the planned resumption of production of some refineries may lead to a further decline in asphalt prices. [43] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 395 - 405 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3180 - 3260 yuan/ton. Although the price of South Korean asphalt in February increased compared with January, it still has a price advantage, and the import volume in January and February remained high. [52] - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 490 - 510 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3870 - 4030 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 465 - 475 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3680 - 3760 yuan/ton. The price increase in the Singapore market was driven by crude oil and fuel oil, but the trading atmosphere has cooled down due to the decrease in rush - work demand. [52] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic Production**: In 2025, China's asphalt production was 28.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of PetroChina refineries increased by 33% year - on - year, Sinopec's decreased by 12% year - on - year, CNOOC's increased by 13% year - on - year, and local refineries' increased by 19% year - on - year. [55] - **Import**: The import volume of South Korean and other regions' asphalt remained at a relatively high level, and the price of some brands' March shipments continued to rise. [52] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Most regions' demand has decreased due to temperature and the approaching holiday, and the operating rate of modified asphalt plants has continued to decline. [80] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast, Northwest, and North China continued to store winter - storage resources; the inventory in the South China and Southwest regions decreased steadily due to some rush - work demand; the inventory in the Yangtze River Delta and Central China regions fluctuated little. [97] 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes. [119] 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (February 8 - 17th), most of the regions in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern China, and the eastern part of the southwestern region will experience precipitation, which is higher than the same period in previous years. [120]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical developments, including the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which initially eased risks but later saw a resurgence following military incidents [2][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.83% and 2.55% from the previous week [2][25]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%), while WTI futures were at $63.55, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2][25]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude fell to $54.91, down $0.55 (-0.99%) [2][25]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs totaled 132, down by 2 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels from the previous week [35]. - The active rig count in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412 rigs as of February 6, 2026 [35]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.029 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.50%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [43]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [52]. - Strategic oil inventories increased slightly to 415 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 420 million barrels [52]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3].

Group 1 - The stock price of International Industry (000159) closed at 6.95 yuan on February 6, 2026, down 1.14% from 7.03 yuan the previous week, with a market cap of 3.341 billion yuan, ranking 63rd in the photovoltaic equipment sector and 4479th in the A-share market [1] - As of January 30, 2026, the number of shareholders increased to 43,700, a growth of 1.69%, with an average shareholding of 11,000 shares per shareholder, translating to an average market value of 77,400 yuan [1][3] - The second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders was held on February 4, 2026, with 270 participants representing 116,957,177 shares, accounting for 24.33% of the total share capital, and approved proposals for comprehensive credit limits and guarantee limits for 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - Beijing Guofeng Law Firm confirmed the legality of the procedures and results of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders, which approved the proposals for applying for comprehensive credit limits and guarantee limits for 2026 [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [15] Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the judgment that the production increase rhythm of Venezuela is accelerating. It also believes that the upward space of the cost side is limited, and suggests a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products [15] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The report presents the trend of the asphalt main contract in the near - month, and marks the changes in supply - demand and cost factors at different time points [13][14] - **Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bullish as the heavy - traffic asphalt utilization rate starts to rise while overall imports decline; demand is bearish as the sub - item starts of the demand side are weak, especially the shoe - material end is weaker than expected and the overall downstream shipment is dull; inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced) as the overall inventory shows difficulty in destocking, and the social inventory fails to meet the destocking expectation while the domestic total inventory exceeds expectations; cost is neutral - bullish as the crude oil cost stabilizes, and the narrowing of the Merey oil short - term discount leads to cost increase [15] - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Maintain the previous view, keep a wait - and - see attitude towards all oil products in the short term [15] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Presents the daily market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, East China, and North China regions [18][21][28][24] - **Basis Trend**: Shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [30] - **Term Structure**: Displays the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [33][34] 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: Illustrates the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [39][42][43] - **Import**: Shows the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from different regions (East China - South Korea, South China - Singapore), and the cumulative import volume from different countries (South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia) and the monthly import volume of Venezuelan oil [48][51] - **Valuation Ratio**: Presents the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent [54] - **Refinery Profit**: Displays the refining profit of main refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [57][60] 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: Shows the domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [65] - **Warehouse Receipt**: Presents the asphalt warehouse receipt and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract [68] - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: Analyzes the relationship between inventory and profit, and profit and price [71] 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: Displays the asphalt shipment volume of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises [76][77][81] - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: Shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [86][88] - **Highway Investment**: Presents the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [90][92][96] - **Road - related Machinery**: Displays the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in transportation fixed - assets [101][105] - **Related Consumption**: Shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management, and the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [108][109] 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: Presents the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [114][119][117] 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: Involves exploration and extraction [123][124] - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, it can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction; by use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level again. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.92% to 3,386 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,412 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,731 to 83,176 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]