Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]

Group 1: CPI Trends and Influences - Since February 2025, CPI has experienced four consecutive months of negative growth, primarily driven by food and energy prices, while core CPI has shown a significant recovery since September 2024[1] - The average CPI year-on-year growth from February to May 2025 was -0.25%, with food contributing -0.24 percentage points and energy contributing -0.29 percentage points, while core CPI contributed +0.28 percentage points[1] - The CPI growth target was adjusted from 3% to 2% in March 2025, indicating a shift in policy focus from preventing high prices to preventing low prices[1] Group 2: Core CPI Components - Core CPI can be divided into three main components: core goods, housing services, and other services, with housing services being a significant drag on core CPI growth[1] - Housing services prices have averaged 0.07% since 2022, down from 1.74% from 2013 to 2022, contributing approximately 0.4 percentage points to the decline in core CPI growth[1] - Other services prices are closely linked to overall wage trends, with a potential for price increases driven by rising demand and improved corporate profits[1] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To boost core CPI, service consumption subsidies are recommended, which could increase core CPI by approximately 0.3 percentage points, offsetting the negative impact from declining housing service prices[1] - The expected core CPI growth for the second half of 2025 is projected to reach around 1.0% before slightly declining, remaining within the 0.6%-1.0% range[1] - The core goods price is expected to rise initially before a slight decline, while housing service prices are anticipated to remain stable around zero[1]

Core Viewpoint - The expected GDP growth rate for the second quarter is around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as export fluctuations, the diminishing impact of trade-in policies on consumption, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The economic situation in China is projected to remain relatively stable in the short term, primarily due to a backlog of export orders and the positive effects of trade-in policies on retail [2]. - Export growth is expected to maintain a high level in May and June, potentially close to April's 8% growth rate, but challenges may arise in the second half of the year [2]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. has significantly impacted exports, particularly with a 54% tariff on small packages, which may lead to a substantial decline in exports after the initial surge [3]. - The positive effects of trade-in policies for durable goods are expected to wane, with potential negative impacts on consumer demand in the latter half of the year [3][4]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with a 10% annual decline and a 22% drop in new housing starts, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [4]. Policy Recommendations - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for economic stability, especially given the current challenges in the real estate market and capital outflow concerns [5][6]. - Accelerating fiscal spending and exploring additional stimulus measures are necessary to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [6]. - The stability of the real estate market is critical, requiring measures such as interest rate cuts and debt resolution for developers to prevent further economic decline [7]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance consumer spending, particularly by increasing pension levels for rural elderly populations [8]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with significant growth in various sectors, particularly in new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles, leading to a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 6, 2023, among 544 Hong Kong stock funds, the highest net asset value growth rate exceeded 85%, with over 90% of these funds showing positive growth [1][2]. - In 36 thematic categories, 33 industry indices have risen, with durable consumer goods, consumer services, and pharmaceutical biotechnology indices each increasing by over 40% [2]. - The total scale of Hong Kong stock funds has increased from approximately 330 billion to 340 billion yuan this year [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The new consumption sector is recovering rapidly, with companies showing strong performance, supported by both short-term policy catalysts and long-term growth logic [3]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with significant growth potential in the "outbound" market for innovative drugs [4][5]. - High-dividend assets are seen as attractive, with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals expected to perform well in the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers highlight the potential in AI applications and smart driving as key investment opportunities within the new economy sectors [1][4]. - The "technology + consumption" growth stocks are favored by both domestic and foreign investors, with significant interest in new consumption areas such as trendy beverages and innovative products [4]. - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly in niches like electrophysiology and endoscopy, is identified as having substantial growth potential due to low penetration rates and opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has unexpectedly lowered interest rates, which is anticipated to boost consumer demand for large-ticket items such as automobiles, electronics, and housing [1] Group 1: Impact on Consumer Demand - The significant interest rate cut is expected to provide immediate relief to consumers, leading to a potential surge in demand for durable goods, automobiles, personal loans, and housing loans in the current quarter [1] - As monthly payments decrease, there is an expectation of increased consumer spending on high-value items [1] Group 2: Loan Activity - There is an anticipated rise in loan balance transfer activities as borrowers seek to take advantage of lower interest rates to alleviate repayment pressures [1]

股权激励锚定稳健增长，基本面强劲延续 爱玛科技(603529) —爱玛科技公司公告点评 耐用消费品[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 刘佳昆(分析师) | 毛宇翔(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 55.47 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880524040004 | S0880524080013 | | | 本报告导读： 公司发布员工持股计划，激励彰显长期发展信心，强化业务团队凝聚力。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 21,036 | 21,606 | 28,112 | 33,197 | 38,276 | | (+/-)% | 1.1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that industrial production in the Eurozone and EU showed significant month-on-month growth in March 2025, with Eurozone production increasing by 2.6% and EU production by 1.9% [1] - The strongest monthly growth in production was observed in capital goods and durable consumer goods, both around 3% in the Eurozone [1] - Non-durable consumer goods production in the Eurozone grew by 2.3%, while energy production saw a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, Eurozone industrial production rose by 3.6%, with the highest growth in non-durable consumer goods at 15.7% [2] - Ireland experienced the highest monthly industrial production increase at 14.6%, while the largest decline was in Luxembourg at 6.3% [1] - The only sector that saw a decline in year-on-year production was intermediate goods, which fell by 0.2% [2]

至于此次关税冲击对中国的影响，王一鸣认为，最直接体现在外贸方面，行业受影响比较大的是汽车零 部件、电子设备、纺织服装、耐用消费品等，涉及的地区主要是外向型经济区域。 中国也要对此有所准备。 在5月18日举办的2025清华五道口全球金融论坛上，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、国务院发展研究 中心原副主任王一鸣谈及美国总统特朗普发起"关税战"的逻辑和动机时表示，相比第一任期，特朗普目 前面对着更加棘手的问题，包括美国制造业衰落、贫富差距过大、社会撕裂、财政赤字不断攀升，再加 上美国金融阶层的危机感和底层民众的失落感加剧，最终推动形成了一系列政策和行动。 王一鸣认为，特朗普发起"关税战"的背后逻辑可以大致归纳为三方面：一是重建美国制造业。特朗普认 为这事关国家安全，相比拜登政府以财政补贴吸引制造业回流的方式，特朗普政府更加简单粗暴，即想 用关税的方法推动制造业回流美国。 二是以关税收入缓解美国财政压力。去年美国债务高达36万亿美元，占GDP的比重达123%，美国的利 息支出已经超过了军费开支，同时特朗普还提出十年减税4.5万亿美元，而且希望把美国的财政赤字率 降到3%。 "这两个本来就矛盾，所以，在所得税、消费税难以 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index reported a decline of 0.40% on May 16, with a current value of 4558.22 points [1] - The CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index has increased by 4.57% over the past month, decreased by 0.39% over the past three months, and has risen by 3.66% year-to-date [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index include: Yinlun Holdings (4.19%), Magpow (4.02%), Qianli Technology (3.12%), Fulian Precision (2.81%), Longxin General (2.64%), Weifu High-Tech (2.37%), Huamao Technology (1.93%), Jingu Co. (1.88%), Weixing Co. (1.88%), and Kidswant (1.84%) [2] Group 2 - The CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index is composed of stocks selected for their liquidity and market representation, with adjustments made biannually in June and December [3] - The market share of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index is 61.65% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 38.35% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI 1000 Consumer Discretionary Index includes: Passenger vehicles and parts (53.44%), Durable goods (20.22%), Retail (12.85%), Textiles, clothing, and jewelry (11.16%), and Consumer services (2.33%) [2]

Core Insights - The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has launched the ICBC CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow ETF (code: 159236) on May 16, 2025, on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which closely tracks the CSI Free Cash Flow Index [1] - The ETF focuses on high free cash flow rate companies with stable operating cash flow over five years, targeting cyclical sectors like coal and oil, as well as consumer and growth sectors such as home appliances and pharmaceuticals, characterized by high profitability, low valuation, and high dividends [1] - As of May 12, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Midea Group, China Shenhua, CNOOC, Wuliangye, and COSCO Shipping, accounting for a total of 65.55% of the index [1] Index Composition - The top ten stocks in the CSI Free Cash Flow Index are as follows: - Midea Group: 10.61% - China Shenhua: 10.52% - CNOOC: 9.89% - Wuliangye: 9.51% - COSCO Shipping: 7.39% - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: 6.28% - China Coal Energy: 3.77% - Aluminum Corporation of China: 3.63% - China Power: 2.13% - Yuntianhua: 1.82% [2] Comparison with Dividend Index - The CSI Free Cash Flow Index differs from the Dividend Index in stock selection criteria, industry distribution, rebalancing frequency, and stock concentration [4] - The Free Cash Flow Index excludes financial and real estate sectors, focusing more on financial quality and being more sensitive to fundamental changes, while the Dividend Index has a higher distribution in banking and real estate, which has negatively impacted its performance since 2015 [4] - The Free Cash Flow Index uses free cash flow for weighting rather than free cash flow rate, resulting in higher stock concentration with the top ten stocks accounting for over 65% of the index [4]