Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Views - Continuous focus on strategic opportunities in industrial metals is emphasized, with a recommendation to concentrate on the industrial metal sector as the market sentiment cools and volatility increases [9][14] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with expectations for price increases due to improving supply-demand dynamics [9][14] - The copper sector is viewed positively in the medium term, with expectations for price and smelting fee improvements despite short-term fluctuations [9][15] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from supply chain security and competitive advantages, leading to potential valuation premiums [9][16] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests that industrial metals are entering a favorable strategic allocation period as copper prices approach 100,000 [9][14] - Zinc is expected to see price increases driven by demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite domestic construction concerns [9][14] - Copper prices are anticipated to improve due to supply constraints, with significant copper mines expected to resume production in 2026 [9][15] - The aluminum sector is projected to experience steady profit growth due to enhanced supply chain security and rising aluminum prices [9][16] Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the sector [17] - Weekly rebar consumption increased by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22] - Steel production saw a slight decrease, with iron output down by 0.65% and rebar production down by 0.39% [19][22] - Steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the overall steel price index rising by 0.15% [36] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen significantly, reflecting strong market demand [49][51]

Group 1 - The core focus of the meeting was on building a collaborative system and achieving win-win development among enterprises in the Ganhua Industrial Park [1] - A total of 27 key enterprises and 2 backbone enterprises from Huangzhong District participated, resulting in multiple cooperation intentions, including 4 strategic cooperation agreements signed [1] - The planned product docking volume is 350,000 tons, with a corresponding value exceeding 6.8 billion yuan, aimed at achieving a strong start for the first quarter [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the industrial output value of Ganhua Industrial Park exceeded 81.65 billion yuan, marking a historical high, with internal product docking volumes reaching 1.88 million tons and a value over 24.3 billion yuan [2] - The contribution rate of these internal dockings to the park's output value was 30%, highlighting the advantages of the park's collaborative industrial model [2] - The park aims to continuously optimize the business environment and establish a regular docking service platform to enhance resource integration and improve the overall resilience and competitiveness of the regional industrial chain [2]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝周报 中长需求稳健增长，铝价只是阶段调整 20260118 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期现市场 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.41% to $13,148.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 0.63% to ¥100,800 per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, with total inventory up by 21,280 tons year-on-year [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 75.90%, with expectations of a slight decrease next week [1] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.71% to $3,171.5 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum fell by 1.66% to ¥23,900 per ton [2] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.2% due to pre-holiday inventory demand [2] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina is 11,032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8,916 million tons/year [2] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 2.26% to $4,620.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 10.24 tons to 1,074.8 tons [3] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market, with concerns over U.S. military actions against Iran [3] - The 10-year TIPS decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.88% [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 8.01%, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets reaching a historical high [4] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand [4] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [4] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate price rose by 6.33%, with supply remaining tight due to pre-holiday clearances [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Companies to focus on include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 7.55%, with inventory levels still acceptable despite recent accumulation [4] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4] - Companies to consider include Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [4] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 20.1% to ¥158,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 21.2% to ¥153,700 per ton [4] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,600 tons, with a slight increase week-on-week [4] - The market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend due to low inventory and high demand [4] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 1.3% to ¥454,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 0.6% to $25.38 per pound [5] - The market is experiencing cautious purchasing behavior due to high cost pressures [5] - The price of cobalt salts continues to rise, providing support for electric cobalt prices [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations. Recent price changes for copper include a decrease of -0.50% for LME copper, -0.63% for SHFE copper, and -0.71% for COMEX copper. The significant inventory accumulation includes LME copper at 144,000 tons (+3.31%), COMEX copper at 54,300 short tons (+4.81%), and SHFE copper at 214,000 tons (+18.3%). The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 321,000 tons (+17.20%). The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased to 57.47% (+9.65 percentage points) [4] - Aluminum prices are also expected to face high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation. The price of alumina has decreased by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83% to 24,185 CNY/ton. The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is at 89.16 million tons/year with an operating rate of 80.82% (+0.31 percentage points). Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and demand is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage [4] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton. The production of lithium carbonate is at 22,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.3%. The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse, leading to an upward price trend [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply. The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply structure remains tight, and prices are likely to rise further [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the US December CPI year-on-year rate is at 2.70%, matching expectations. Retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.4% [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows an increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking third among the Shenwan sectors [10] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price decreased by 0.50%, SHFE copper by 0.63%, and COMEX copper by 0.71%. Inventory levels increased significantly, with LME copper inventory up by 3.31% and SHFE copper inventory up by 18.26% [24] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price fell by 0.73%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%. The inventory situation shows a mixed trend, with LME aluminum inventory down by 1.97% and SHFE aluminum inventory up by 29.24% [34] - Lead and Zinc: LME lead price increased by 1.03%, and SHFE lead by 1.62%. LME zinc price rose by 3.17%, and SHFE zinc by 4.38%. The mining profit for zinc increased by 5.77% to 11,284 CNY/ton [48] - Tin and Nickel: LME tin price rose by 11.68%, and SHFE tin by 18.70%. LME nickel price increased by 0.14%, and SHFE nickel by 5.77% [62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene rising by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton. The profit margins for lithium production are showing significant fluctuations [78] - Cobalt: The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply dynamics remain tight, supporting price increases [90]

Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].

证券日报网讯1月16日，焦作万方（000612）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，二级市场股价走势受 宏观经济、市场环境及投资者偏好等多方面因素影响。公司将通过不断提升经营管理、夯实主营业务、 做好投资者关系管理等方式做好市值管理工作，为股东带来长期的价值回报。 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level adjustment in the short term due to the dual pressure of short - term demand and a strong US dollar, but the medium - term demand is still positive [7]. - The downward space of lithium carbonate futures prices is limited, considering the limited growth of supply and the recovery of short - term demand [28]. - Aluminum prices have a downward adjustment demand in the short term due to the cooling of the macro - market sentiment and the large increase in the early stage [41][44]. - The operating center of nickel prices is expected to gradually rise, but the long - term space depends on the demand side, and investors need to pay attention to the Indonesian policy [77][78]. - Zinc prices are supported by macro - sentiment and a tight industrial pattern, but high prices have suppressed consumption, and there is a risk of a high - level callback [103][104]. 4. Summary of Each Metal Copper Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated between 100,060 and 105,650 this week, with a 5.3% decrease in total positions. The price first rose and then fell. LME copper also fluctuated in a certain range, and the overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long decreased [7]. - In the short term, high copper prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory accumulation accelerates. However, the medium - term demand is positive, such as the increase in the State Grid's fixed - asset investment and TSMC's capital expenditure. It is expected that copper prices will enter a high - level adjustment in the short term [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of cold materials is abundant. The production of smelters in January is expected to decrease slightly. The import window of refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of waste copper rods and refined copper rods have rebounded, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious. The operating rate of wire and cable has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of enameled wire has increased [14][15][16][17]. - **Spot**: The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME + COMEX market has also increased. It is expected that the inventory may decline next week [18][20]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell this week, with a 17% decrease in total positions. The spot price also fluctuated. The downstream has stocked up in advance, and the social inventory has started to decline [27]. - The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to recover. It is expected that the downward space of futures prices is limited [28]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Lithium ore prices have risen significantly this week. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in January. The production cost has also increased [31]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and lithium batteries have all risen. The demand for cathode materials is expected to recover [32][33][34]. - **Spot**: The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. Aluminum Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum prices fluctuated at a high level this week, reaching new highs and then falling. The market sentiment cooled down, and the import window was closed. The inventory increased, and the spot premium was in a certain range [41]. - The supply pressure is expected to increase slightly in the short term, and the demand may be stimulated by the decline in aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will have a downward adjustment in the short term [44]. Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite production is gradually recovering, and the overseas market is trading lightly. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the price of imported bauxite has declined slightly [45]. - **Alumina**: The price has adjusted downward this week, and the import window is open. The domestic alumina plant is operating at a high level [49][50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window of aluminum ingots is closed, and the net import in November has declined. The operating rate of downstream processing has increased slightly due to pre - holiday stocking, but it is expected to be weak in the short term. The inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [55][62][65][70]. Nickel Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel prices fluctuated widely at a high level this week, rising first and then falling. The spot trading was light, and the import window was closed [74][77]. - Nickel prices are affected by Indonesian policies. Although the short - term surplus pressure still exists, the operating center is expected to rise. Investors need to pay attention to the final quota of Indonesia [77][78]. Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian wet - process nickel ore has decreased, and the price of pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased month - on - month [79]. - **Ferronickel**: The production of domestic and Indonesian ferronickel has decreased. The market has some activity, but there is still a difference between the upstream and downstream [86]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. The production in December has increased, and the import and export volumes have changed [91]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts has risen significantly this week. The production in December has decreased, and the industry's operating load is at a certain level [96]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the pattern of low inventory and strong expectation will continue, but there are potential risks [99]. Zinc Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zinc prices fluctuated this week, reaching a new high and then falling back. The import window is not fully open, and the premium has declined [101][102]. - The short - term bullish funds are loose, the supply pressure is limited, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to be vigilant against the high - level callback of zinc prices [103][104]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is tight, the import processing fee continues to decline, and the import window is open but the trading is light. The zinc ingot production in January is expected to increase slightly [109][110][111]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide have all decreased. It is expected that the operating rates will rise slightly next week, but the recovery is limited [112][113]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic zinc inventory has increased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased [114].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant capital inflows and record high ETF performance, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.2%, currently up 1.41%, reaching a new all-time high since its listing [1]. - As of January 15, the latest scale of the non-ferrous ETF Huabao is 1.453 billion, marking a historical high, and it ranks first among three ETFs tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index [1]. - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 50.4 million units, with a total net inflow of 473 million over the past ten days [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector include Hunan Silver, which surged over 6%, and other companies like Chihong Zn & Ge, Jiangxi Copper, and Jinchuan Group, all rising over 5% [6]. - The total market capitalization of leading stocks in the sector varies, with notable companies like Jiangxi Copper at 196 billion and Chihong Zn & Ge at 48.2 billion [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive due to factors such as global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macro expectations [4]. - China Galaxy Securities suggests that copper prices have significant upward potential, driven by historical trends and the current global economic landscape [3]. - The demand for strategic metals is expected to rise due to new technological revolutions and geopolitical factors, indicating a new cycle for strategic metal demand [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's performance [5]. - The industry is anticipated to benefit from the convergence of AI advancements and global economic shifts, creating a "super cycle" for non-ferrous metals [3][4].

Group 1 - Two A-shares are set for equity registration today, with both companies planning to distribute dividends [1] - The dividend registration date for the two stocks is January 16, with Vision Intelligence and Aladdin offering the highest dividends of 3.00 yuan and 0.70 yuan per 10 shares, respectively [1] - Additionally, three other stocks have announced dividend distribution plans, with Life Pharmaceutical and Tianshan Aluminum proposing the highest dividends of 3.0 yuan and 1.0 yuan per 10 shares, respectively [1]