误区一：稳定币的价值绝对稳定。 稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸，其价值既存在技术性脱锚风险，又受到锚定资产波动影响，因此稳定币的价值并非绝对稳 定，而是相对稳定。 误区二：所有法币都可以大量发行稳定币。 并不是所有的货币都能大量发行稳定币，不同法币稳定币最终的发展取决于法定货币本身的接受度，获得最广泛信任的 法币稳定币会出现"赢家通吃"。 误区三：美元稳定币会弱化美元信用。 美元稳定币的快速发展并不会冲击美元体系，而会进一步强化美元地位，因为美元稳定币拓宽了美元的功能和使用范围。而 美元稳定币对于其他国家尤其是汇率波动大的经济体的法定货币反而冲击较大。 误区四：美元稳定币是美债的"救命稻草"。 美元稳定币市场仅能稍微缓解美国短债的压力，但短债市场最终还是由美联储来主导。美元稳定币更不能缓解美国长债 的压力，整体上来看，美元稳定币对美债市场影响较小。 误区五：美元稳定币会大幅增加美元货币的供给。 美元稳定币的出现，确实会使得美元的发行权限从美联储下放一部分给到发币公司。但美联储作为货币供给的主 要参与者，仍然能够对总量的美元流动性做调控。就像联系汇率制的经济体，尽管存在多家发钞银行，但货币监管机构仍然可以根据市 ...

当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势与美联储持续鹰派的政策立场形成共振，上周全球资本 市场经历了一场压力测试。令人瞩目的是，市场展现出超乎预期的韧性：亚洲主要 市场指数普遍上扬，其中韩国、印度和日本市场涨幅领先，分别上涨 4.4%、1.59% 和 1.50%。相较之下，中国市场本周表现略显逊色，主要指数出现调整，我们认 为，可能源于其自身运行节奏的影响：上证指数在未能有效突破 3400 点附近的关键 阻力区间后，技术上面临回踩需求，本周微跌 0.51%。同时，小盘股前期积累的上 涨动能也显露转弱迹象，中证 1000 指数下跌 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.55%，需 对该结构性风险保持警惕。 投资策略 | 定期报告 地缘波折，难阻中国科技突围 策略周报 20250622 研究结论 ⚫ 全球资本市场韧性超预期，但仍需防范风险 支撑全球市场韧性的核心逻辑在于：投资者倾向于相信中东地缘危机短期内不会失 控升级。伊朗的报复行动虽引发波动，但均未实质性突破"红线"，大国直接军事 介入的风险暂时预期保持中性。OPEC+充足的闲置产能、伊朗原油出口的暂时维持 以及全球能源转型的长期趋势，共同削弱了油价飙升的持续性预期。然而，这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, particularly in light of the current global geopolitical tensions, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in this sector [3][36]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of demand and the elimination of previous disruptions, with a long-term growth certainty supported by national defense modernization goals set for 2035 and 2050 [5][38]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of drone technology in modern warfare, emphasizing its cost-effectiveness and operational advantages [4][36]. - The low-altitude economy is identified as a burgeoning sector, with significant policy support and commercial opportunities emerging [4][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index fell by 2.01% last week, ranking 17th among 31 sectors, with a current PE(TTM) of 74.63 times [3][20]. - The sub-sectors show varying PE ratios, with aerospace equipment at 134.59 times and ground weaponry at 148.10 times [20]. Key Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong demand and product depth in the downstream manufacturing sector, such as Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [5][40]. - Highlight new technology firms in the military sector, including Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Guangqi Technology [5][40]. - Emphasize underwater equipment companies like Hailanxin and Yaxing Anchor Chain [5][41]. - Recommend missile industry chain companies such as Feilihua and Guokexun [5][42]. - Suggest companies involved in military-grade titanium materials and electronic components, including Western Superconducting and Hongyuan Electronics [5][43][44]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are driving interest in military investments [3][36]. - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a significant growth area, with various local governments implementing supportive measures to foster development [31][35].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

Market Overview - The stock indices collectively adjusted this week, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets seeing a net inflow of approximately 20 billion yuan into stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs [1][6]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 59.3 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 22.6 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market for 36.7 trillion yuan [2]. ETF Performance - Major ETFs such as the CSI 500, CSI 1000, STAR 50, and ChiNext related ETFs fell over 1% this week, while the STAR 50 ETF saw a net inflow of 2.019 billion yuan [5][6]. - Among the large-scale ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF had a weekly net inflow of 10.83 billion yuan, despite a price drop of 1.68% [3][8]. Sector Analysis - The brokerage, medical, and military industry ETFs were favored by investors, with net inflows of 9.96 billion yuan, 7 billion yuan, and 6.96 billion yuan respectively [7][8]. - Conversely, the information technology innovation (信创) related ETFs experienced significant outflows, with the 信创 ETF seeing a net outflow of 1.76 billion yuan [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the mid-term upward potential of the equity market, particularly in sectors supported by policy, including domestic technology innovation and industrial development [6][16]. - The military sector is expected to see a turning point in orders by 2025, driven by new technologies and military trade opportunities [13]. New ETF Listings - One new ETF tracking the CSI A100 index is set to be listed next week, with four additional ETFs focused on artificial intelligence, STAR board value, securities, and aviation industries expected to be issued soon [17][19].

Core Points - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that in the past week, Russian forces have gained control of six settlements and targeted Ukrainian military enterprises, energy infrastructure, and air defense radar stations [1] - Ukrainian armed forces reported over 170 battles occurring in frontline areas within a single day, with attacks on Russian command posts and missile and artillery facilities [1] - Russian air defense forces intercepted over 1,000 fixed-wing drones and shot down Ukrainian aerial bombs and "HIMARS" rockets [1]

中东地缘局势升温，A股军工股频频躁动。 今日午后，光力科技、江龙船艇20CM涨停，长城军工、中京电子、川润股份等纷纷涨停。 其中，长城军工斩获3连板，最新价18.36元，成交额19.95亿元，换手率15.52%，目前总市值132.97亿元。 近3个交易日，该股累计上涨33.14%。 从资金流向方面看，今日主力资金净流入2195.99万元，占成交比1.1%。 游资资金净流出6228.0万元，占总成交额3.12%；散户资金净流入4032.01万元，占总成交额2.02%。 公开资料显示，公司下属四家军品子公司均属重点军工企业，在迫击炮弹、单兵火箭等弹药武器装备领域占据重要地位。 长城军工主营业务分为军品业务与民品业务两部分，但以军品业务为主。 其中包括迫击炮弹系列、光电对抗系列、单兵火箭系列、引信系列、子弹药系列、火工品系列的研究、设计、生产、总装和销售。 今年一季度，长城军工营收1.48亿元，同比上升5.09%；归母净利润亏损5425.34万元，同比下降55.14%。 在连续被市场热炒后，长城军工日前也发布了风险提示。 3连板背后 近来，军工板块热度高涨。 长城军工在这轮行情中表现不俗的背后，除了受外围地缘冲突助 ...

3连板长城军工：目前生产经营活动正常 智通财经6月20日电，长城军工发布股票交易风险提示公告，自2025年6月17日至6月20日期间，公司股 票价格在4个交易日累计涨幅达到37.06%，累计换手率达到15.52%，上述指标均远高于行业同期平均水 平。经公司自查，目前生产经营活动正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化，不存在影响公司股票交易异 常波动的重大事项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Great Wall Military Industry (601606) experienced a significant increase, with a cumulative rise of 37.06% from June 17 to June 20, 2025, along with a turnover rate of 15.52%, both exceeding the industry average during the same period [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Stock Performance - From June 17 to June 19, 2025, the stock price increased by 21.89%, followed by another limit-up on June 20 [1] - Company Operations - The company conducted a self-inspection and confirmed that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in daily operations [1] - Market Conditions - The substantial short-term increase in stock price may indicate a potential risk of significant decline in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the external environment and market expectations for the second half of 2025, highlighting the potential for increased volatility and the importance of a dual-track allocation strategy in investment [3][4]. Group 1: External Environment and Market Trends - Since March, the euro has appreciated against the dollar, indicating a shift of funds away from dollar assets, with non-dollar assets receiving strong liquidity support [3]. - The market has already priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the U.S. and Chinese economies, as well as shifts in international capital flows [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - The article anticipates that the second half of 2025 will see increased market volatility as expectations align with reality, particularly as high-frequency data begins to validate these expectations [4]. - The article suggests that Chinese equity assets are likely to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and favorable liquidity conditions in emerging markets [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividend stocks and technology growth sectors is recommended, with projected revenue growth for the CSI 300 index at 4.5% and 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]. - The static valuation of the CSI 300 is considered undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].