Core Viewpoint - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is approximately 85%, indicating a strong domestic energy production capability and a well-prepared strategy for energy security [2][17]. Group 1: Energy Self-Sufficiency - The energy self-sufficiency rate of 85% means that for every ten units of energy consumed, China produces about 8.5 units domestically, relying on imports for only 1.5 units [2]. - Coal and renewable energy are significant contributors to China's energy mix, with coal accounting for 54% of primary energy and an annual production of 4 billion tons, sufficient for domestic needs [2][8]. - Oil and natural gas only make up 27% of total energy consumption, highlighting the limited reliance on these imported resources [2]. Group 2: Strategic Preparedness - China has established strategic reserves for oil and gas, including storage bases and gas storage facilities, ensuring energy security even in extreme situations [2][8]. - The country has developed four major cross-border energy corridors with Central Asia, Russia, Myanmar, and Kazakhstan, enhancing its energy supply chain resilience [4][10]. Group 3: Domestic Production Growth - The implementation of the "Seven-Year Action Plan for Oil and Gas Increase" has led to an increase in domestic crude oil production from 189 million tons to 213 million tons, a net increase of 24 million tons [8]. - Natural gas production has risen from 160 billion cubic meters to 245 billion cubic meters, with an annual net increase of 10 billion cubic meters [8]. Group 4: Global Market Position - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) operates 88 oil and gas projects across 35 countries, allowing for flexibility in case of disruptions in any single project [5][11]. - The global market position as the largest buyer provides China with leverage, as many countries are eager to sell to it, enhancing its energy security [15][17]. Group 5: Future Energy Landscape - China leads globally in solar, wind, and electric vehicle technologies, with significant advancements in energy storage technology [15]. - The future energy landscape indicates that oil consumption will peak while natural gas continues to thrive, with an increasing share of renewables in the energy mix [15].

一、中美贸易战又升级！关税谈判终于有了一些结果，延期90天的消息是关键。这算是靴子落地了，而且是个好消息。对于A股市场来说，关税谈判延期其 实是个超预期的利好。毕竟，这种问题不太可能一次性谈成，后面肯定还会有多次接触。 只要双方关系不再升级，对A股市场的情绪就是个大大的利好。综合来看，这些利好对A股市场都很重要。现在主力资金在控制各大指数稳步创新高，市场 没有加速上涨，这种稳稳当当的节奏，其实才是最好的。 二、从技术上看，三大指数涨跌不一，沪指涨0.17%，深指跌0.77%，创业跌1.62%。 大盘出现了过山车行情，早盘大盘小幅低开，随后，银行、保险、煤炭、钢铁、石油等蓝筹股全线拉升，带动大盘开始大涨，沪市最高上攻到3636点附近。 随后开始突然跳水，沪市最低回踩2593点附近，尾盘虽然出现了回升，但内资大幅流出近500亿元。大盘收出了长长的上影线，说明3650点附近开始出现了 压力。 三、对于今日A股市场的宽幅震荡走势，个人认为是非常理想的。 从高点3636到日内低点3593点，40多点的宽幅震荡会有很好的震仓洗盘效果，另外严格来说，今日还是股海这几日预判的走势，围绕3600点上下震荡，只不 过今日振幅大一 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 报告目录 报告正文 一、 强调"十五五"筹备，而非外部风险——经济循环最差的时候正在过去 基调变化 ：四月政治局开在对等关税冲击的初期，更加强调外部风险，通稿提及"外部冲击影响加大"、"要强化底线 思维，充分备足预案"、"统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争"等。本次 7 月政治局更强调对"十五五"的筹备，有两整段 论述十五五的重要性与主要的指导思想，对上半年经济评价比较积极，通稿提及"主要经济指标表现良好"、"我国经济 展现强大活力和韧性"、"巩固拓展经济回升向好势头"等。 我们理解 ： 中国居民存款的"存"与"花"是最近几年的宏观核心矛盾——其决定了经济循环、货币政策、股债关系， 我们称之为"三支箭"。 参见报告《 看股做债 ➡ 股债反转 —— 居民存款搬家 " 三支箭 " 的研究脉络 》（ 20250727 ）。对于"三支箭"核心指标关系的梳 理，只要居民从"超额存"到"正常存"到"花"的趋势不逆转，我们基本可以判断—— 当下循环最差时正在过去、货币最 宽松时正在过去、债相对股性价比最优的时候正在过去。本次政治局会 ...

Economic Overview - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the meeting noting "major economic indicators performing well" [1] - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow from 3.3% last year to 3% this year, posing external challenges to China's economy [1] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on "steady employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [2] - No mention of "incremental policies," indicating a preference for stability over aggressive new measures [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The focus is on effective execution of existing policies, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, the highest in history, with limited likelihood of additional fiscal tools being introduced this year [3] Consumer Spending - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption, with initiatives like a 300 billion yuan fund for trade-in programs and 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [4] - Emphasis on both goods and service consumption to stimulate domestic demand [4] Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [6] - The external trade environment remains challenging, with potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. [6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - Focus on high-quality urban renewal projects, with attention to potential policy changes in major cities regarding housing market restrictions [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with continued support for equity markets [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that due to reduced likelihood of aggressive macro policy adjustments, funds may shift towards safer assets, with a focus on sectors like consumption and technology [7] - The consumption sector is anticipated to experience a rebound following recent policy announcements [7] Debt Market Outlook - The monetary policy stance remains unchanged, with a low probability of broad-based interest rate cuts, but potential targeted measures if new risks arise [8] - The bond market is expected to face limited risks, with conditions favorable for yield declines [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the National Energy Group has shown significant operational improvements in the first half of the year, with strong coal production and sales, electricity generation, and transportation metrics [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the group achieved coal production and sales of 374 million tons, electricity generation of 580.6 billion kilowatt-hours, railway freight volume of 27.6 million tons, and chemical product output of 13.55 million tons [1] - The group maintains a high average coal production level of 51 million tons per month and holds over 40% market share in the northern port coal market, with electricity generation utilization hours leading the industry [1] Group 2 - The National Energy Group is focused on optimizing its industrial structure, with key projects advancing rapidly, including the high-quality commencement of new wells and the production of thermal power plants [1] - The group has made breakthroughs in new energy bases in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, achieving a historical high in new energy indicators with 14.39 million kilowatts obtained and 9.11 million kilowatts put into production [1] - The second half of the year is seen as a critical period for the group to achieve its annual goals, with a focus on stable operations, innovation, investment optimization, management strengthening, and safety assurance [2]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业事件点评 "反内卷"下，哪些煤炭个股值得关注(二) 【2025.7.30】 行业评级：看好 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 执业证书编号：S0770524100001 邮箱： liuyongfang@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 核心观点 发布日期：2025.7.30 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 煤炭行情走势图 "反内卷"力度确认是关键。在经历 7 月 24 日焦煤期货主力 合约涨停，7 月 25 日大商所发布限制焦煤期货开仓消息，以及 7 月 28 日焦煤期货全面回调甚至出现跌停后，市场炒作情绪降 温，逐渐回归理性，但"反内卷"必要性仍在，对于市场指数 如何演绎，需要看"反内卷"的政策力度和执行力度。 焦煤现货价格和焦煤指数的走势基本相随。与上篇中动力煤现 货价格和动力煤市场走势大差不差，可按照供给侧改革、疫情 暴发、经济强预期弱现实这几个阶段划分，炼焦煤价格和市场 指数 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 7 月 30 日 煤焦日报 政策预期兑现，煤焦宽幅震荡 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 30 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1676.5 元/吨，日内录得 4.00%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.94 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1823 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1420 元/吨，周环比上涨 7.58%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1390 元/ 吨，周环比上涨 0.72%。当前，焦炭基本面压力不大，且焦煤中长期供需 格局好转预期给焦炭带来成本端支撑，市场经历短期回调后，焦炭期货再 次走强。 焦煤：本轮上涨主要逻辑在于"反内卷整治"以及后续国家能源局综合司 108 号文提出的"超产整治"。然而据了解，目前陕西、内蒙超产情况有 限，山西在经历 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象也得到有效遏制。 因此，本轮行业政策的实际影响有待事实验证，上周五夜盘起，焦煤主力 合约迎来回调。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，强调释放内需潜 力，持续化解重点领域风险。政策预期落地，带动焦煤期货继续宽幅 ...

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月30日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面冲高回落。螺纹表需环比回暖，产量小幅回升，库存低位小幅下降。热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏 ...

近日，靖煤公司收到《白银市人民政府关于甘肃靖煤能源有限公司王家山煤矿分公司王家山煤矿一号井 恢复生产的批复》(市政函〔2025〕34号)，根据复产验收专家组意见，王家山煤矿分公司王家山煤矿一 号井满足安全生产条件，具备复产条件，同意恢复生产。 智通财经APP讯，甘肃能化(000552.SZ)公告，此前于2025年5月19日，公司下属甘肃靖煤能源有限公司 (简称"靖煤公司")王家山煤矿分公司一号井二204工作面突发透水事故并停产。 ...

格隆汇7月30日丨甘肃能化(000552.SZ)公布，近日，靖煤公司收到《白银市人民政府关于甘肃靖煤能源 有限公司王家山煤矿分公司王家山煤矿一号井恢复生产的批复》(市政函〔2025〕34号)，根据复产验收 专家组意见，王家山煤矿分公司王家山煤矿一号井满足安全生产条件，具备复产条件，同意恢复生产。 ...