Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated two investigations related to drone systems and their components, as well as a national security investigation into polysilicon and its derivatives used in solar panels and semiconductors, potentially paving the way for higher tariffs on these imports [1][2] - The investigations were launched under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, with results expected within 270 days, and public comments due by August 6 [1] - The investigations may lead to additional tariffs if deemed necessary for national security, following previous actions against imports of steel and aluminum [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. aims to localize its drone supply chain to a "national security" level, but this may disrupt the global drone supply chain and could lead to inefficiencies in producing high-quality drones domestically [2] - China dominates the market for commercial drones, producing 70% to 80% of the global supply, and holds an 80% market share in polysilicon production [2] - U.S. efforts to impose targeted tariffs and restrictions on Chinese imports reflect a strategic shift in trade policy, focusing on specific sectors rather than broad technology restrictions [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market was positively affected by news disturbances. Factors such as the possible cancellation of preferential electricity prices and rumors of delayed resumption of production by large factories led to a significant rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. Short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions needing protection [1][3]. - There have been many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry recently, including anti - involution, storage mergers and acquisitions, and self - disciplined production cuts. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8460 yuan/ton and closed at 8695 yuan/ton, a change of 275 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 402,890 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 13 was 50,090 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8500 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); 99 silicon was 8300 - 8400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [2]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Due to the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC was pushed up, and its price jumped by about 350 yuan/ton, which in turn drove up the price of 107 glue [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions need to be protected [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 41,290 yuan/ton and closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, a change of 0.81% from the previous day's closing price. The position of the main contract was 78,328 lots (previous day: 85,925 lots), and the trading volume on the day was 470,329 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg); N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 276,000 tons, a change of 1.40% from the previous period; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a change of - 5.70% from the previous period. The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons, a change of - 5.00% from the previous period; the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a change of - 3.37% from the previous period [5][6]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor changes in a few varieties [6]. - After domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotes on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has fully carried out transactions at the new prices. Battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. Currently, silicon material transactions have not fully started, with only a few P - type orders [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term: pay attention to risks and be cautiously bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of industrial silicon showed a strong upward trend this week, with the futures main contract rebounding. The supply of industrial silicon is stable in the north and increasing in the south, with overall output slightly increasing, and the demand for polysilicon has a slight increase. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the actual spot trading situation needs further attention [6]. - The spot price of polysilicon jumped significantly this week, and the futures main contract also rebounded strongly. Although there is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, downstream sectors have started to raise prices. The polysilicon market is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 8415 yuan/ton [6][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories' operations are basically stable, with no news of复产 for previously shut - down production capacity and a slight decline in output. Yunnan is releasing output from复产 silicon enterprises during the wet season, and some silicon furnaces still have plans for复产 [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon is basically stable, and the output in July is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has a slight fluctuation, and the weekly output has a small increase. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is expected to be weak, and the export volume in May decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [6]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of industrial silicon remained stable, with the prices of silicon coal and silicon stone weakly stable [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week [6]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has slightly shrunk. As of July 11, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 1050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [12][14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 46000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11000 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 41330 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The market's expectation of supply - side reform and industry restructuring in the polysilicon industry has increased. The output in June was about 10.2 tons, and the output in July is expected to be between 10.3 - 11 tons [7]. - **Demand**: There is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, but downstream sectors have started to raise prices. In May, the import volume decreased compared with the previous month, and the export volume increased [7]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of polysilicon was supported, with the cost of raw material industrial silicon rebounding [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polysilicon remains high, with the total market inventory exceeding 3 months [7]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has widened significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 13000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10000 yuan/ton [21][23]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of July 11, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 0.94, 0.94, 1.15, and 1.35 yuan/piece respectively, with week - on - week increases. There is currently no market transaction [40]. - **Battery Chip**: As of July 11, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.24, 0.24, 0.253, and 0.253 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. Many battery chip manufacturers have suspended or delayed shipments [44]. - **Component**: As of July 11, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.665, 0.675, 0.665, and 0.675 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. The price adjustment is cautious due to strong terminal customer wait - and - see sentiment [48]. Other Related Industries - **Organic Silicon**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The production profit margin has rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate has increased [51][53]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 19700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is weak [55][57]. Cost - related - **Silicon Coal and Silicon Stone**: As of July 11, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 895 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the delivered price of Hubei silicon stone was 325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [25][27]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports was 1125 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have decreased [31][33]. - **Wood Chips, Charcoal, and Graphite Electrodes**: As of July 11, 2025, the prices of Yunnan wood chips, Yunnan charcoal, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes remained unchanged from last week [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - The newly issued renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for this year have expanded compared to previous years, which is expected to effectively boost the demand for green electricity and green certificates, potentially raising their prices and encouraging local governments to develop renewable energy [1][2]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weights - The renewable energy consumption responsibility weight refers to the ratio of actual renewable energy consumption to the total electricity consumption in a provincial administrative region. This year, the weights have significantly increased, with regions like Xinjiang, Tianjin, Guangxi, Hainan, and Shandong seeing increases of approximately 5 to 10 percentage points, and Yunnan experiencing a 10.6 percentage point increase [3][4]. - Over half of the provinces have responsibility weights exceeding 25%, with the total national renewable energy consumption estimated to reach approximately 23,000 billion kilowatt-hours this year, an increase of about 4,600 billion kilowatt-hours from last year [3]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Consumption Monitoring - This year's notification includes a focus on green electricity consumption ratios for key energy-consuming industries such as steel, cement, polysilicon, and newly established data centers, with the steel and cement industries required to use 25.2% to 70% green electricity [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry is the only one formally included in the assessment this year, while the others will be monitored but not assessed, indicating a gradual approach to expanding the assessment to multiple industries [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Green Certificate Prices - The price of green certificates has seen a significant increase, rising from around 1.5 yuan per certificate at the beginning of the year to over 8 yuan by mid-year, with some transactions nearing 10 yuan. This surge is attributed to a strong demand from buyers and a reluctance from power generation companies to sell [7][8]. - The notification allows provinces to account for their renewable energy consumption responsibility weights primarily based on actual physical consumption, supplemented by purchasing green certificates from other provinces, which is expected to enhance the activity of green certificate trading [8].

预计有望继续调整，但整体回调力度并不会过大，重点关注现货价格幅度。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 41765 | 435 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 330 | 30 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 78328 | -7597 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 33070 | 155 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 45500 | -500 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 4670 | 15 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0.72 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term cautious, medium - term positive [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term and medium - term positive [3] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term range 77600 - 79100, medium - term range 60000 - 90000 [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term range 8300 - 8500, medium - term low - level operation in range 7500 - 8800 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term and medium - term positive [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term range 6.30 - 6.50 million, medium - term price decline with range 5.6 - 6.8 million [14] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas tariff uncertainty has a reduced marginal impact; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite is rising, but short - term profit - taking pressure should be noted [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bank - to - bank liquidity is slightly tightened, and there are rumors in the market. The domestic fundamentals are weak, strengthening the policy easing expectation [4] - **Copper**: US tariff hikes, supply increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes may affect price trends [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand decline, high inventory, but polysilicon price increase boosts it [8][9] - **Polysilicon**: Supply decline, demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation drive price increase [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot price increase benefits futures, but high supply and inventory levels are negative factors [14] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: IM2507 trading positions take profit, and allocation positions move to IM2509 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff uncertainty is reduced; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite rises with 596 billion yuan net buying in 3 weeks and 9% financing ratio [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [4] - **Core Logic**: Bank - to - bank liquidity tightens slightly, rumors in the market, and weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy easing expectation [4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach [5] - **Core Logic**: US tariff hikes, Codelco's 9% production increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8] - **Core Logic**: 27.67% supply decline, 33.11% demand decline, high inventory, and polysilicon price increase [8][9] - **Polysilicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [10] - **Core Logic**: 33.11% supply decline, 19.06% demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [14] - **Core Logic**: Spot price increase, 35% supply increase, and high inventory levels [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The spot price of industrial silicon increased, while the futures price decreased. The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased slightly. Due to the supply - demand situation, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon may continue to be strong in the short - term, and short - term operations are recommended. For industrial silicon, the supply may be less than expected, and polysilicon demand may increase due to resumption of production. For polysilicon, the supply may increase slightly, and the demand is still weak, but the sentiment of price increase is strong [1]. Group 3: Summary of Specific Information by Category 1. Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.76% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.65% to 8,415 yuan/ton. The price of various types of industrial silicon in different regions also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: The price of DMC increased by 3.35% to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the prices of other products such as 107 glue and silicone oil remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also remained stable [1]. 2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Siyuan Xinneng Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans a nearly 3 - billion - yuan silicon - carbon anode project in three phases, with an expected annual sales of 4 - 6 billion yuan and tax payment of about 300 million yuan after full production [1]. - Some photovoltaic glass enterprises have cold - repair plans. There will be nearly 2,000 tons/day of production reduction in July and an additional 2,400 tons/day in August [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Industrial silicon - Supply: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements, no resumption of production news. Southwest production areas will enter the rainy season, and the power cost will decrease, but the resumption of production is slow. After supply increase and decrease offset, there may be a reduction [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories will resume production in July, bringing some demand increase; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak; silicon aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, but some new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, and the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials have increased. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have increased recently, the terminal market is still weak [1]. 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The short - term may continue to be strongly sorted, and short - term operations are recommended. In the medium - and long - term, there is pressure on the upside [1]. - Polysilicon: The short - term price may continue to be strong, and price fluctuations may intensify. Short - term operations are recommended, and attention should be paid to actual start - up and supply - side reform implementation [1].