[Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.99%，在全部一级行业 中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中贵金属板块上涨 1.31%，工业金属板块上涨 0.88%，能源金属板块上涨 2.42%，金属新材料板块上 涨 5.46%，小金属板块上涨 4.74%。工业金属方面，周初市场依旧跟随上周五超预 期的美国大非农数据运行，工业金属价格整体有所上涨；5 月 8 日美联储 FOMC 会 议，鲍威尔在宣布利率维持不变的同时再次重申了联储对于后续数据的依赖性，美 元指数与美债利率短线走强，工业金属价格回落。贵金属方面，本周美国总统特朗 普宣布美英达成贸易协定；此外中美宣布将于瑞士展开首次贸易谈话。随着关税局 势的日益缓和，以及美国经济数据依旧维持韧性，黄金仍处于回调整固阶段，我们 预计随着关税对经济的影响逐步显现，金价仍有进一步上行潜力。 ◼ 周观点： 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 市场延续上周非农交易，美联储鹰派发言压 制工业金属上行空间 增持（维持） 2025 年 05 月 ...

有色金属 证券研究报告 供给端存收紧预期，氧化铝价格底部反弹 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价窄幅震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.80%/+0.30%/-0.93%，沪铜在 7.7-7.8 万之间窄幅震荡，正如我们前期所判断的 美国关税造成的流动性冲击缓解后铜价迎来反弹修复，铜价波动率逐步下降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to perform well in the long term despite recent price fluctuations. The report notes a slight increase of 0.33% in domestic spot gold prices and highlights improving international trade conditions, which may influence gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Industrial metal prices have mostly declined, with specific changes noted in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices. However, demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to offset declines in traditional industries [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight increase, while international trade issues are showing signs of improvement [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have varied, with copper prices slightly increasing by 0.3% [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements like praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, indicating a potential rise in demand due to manufacturing recovery [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The report includes various tables summarizing price changes for different metals, indicating overall market trends [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include the resumption of production at a major nickel plant in Indonesia and the discovery of a significant copper deposit by Lundin Mining in South America [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index, which has seen an increase of 8.15% over the past month but a decline of 2.93% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.65% [2] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index is composed of securities selected from the CSI Hong Kong 300 index based on industry classification, reflecting the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.31%), PetroChina Company Limited (12.47%), Zijin Mining Group (10.38%), China Shenhua Energy Company (10.05%), and Sinopec Limited (9.52%) [2] Group 2 - The market sectors represented in the CSI Hong Kong 300 upstream index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the oil and gas sector accounting for 51.69%, coal at 18.07%, precious metals at 15.59%, industrial metals at 9.95%, and rare metals at 3.15% [3] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][6] Core Views - The company is the largest manufacturer of battery aluminum foil globally, with significant scale advantages, and is expected to see revenue and profit growth in the future [4] - The company has experienced a notable increase in overseas revenue, indicating a successful global expansion strategy [4][9] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards due to a decrease in aluminum foil processing fees, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB respectively [6][8] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 24,022 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, but a net profit of 301 million RMB, down 43.70% [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 6,456.62 million RMB, up 26.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 85.27 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 179.93% [11] - The company’s aluminum foil product sales reached 816,100 tons in 2024, a 29.00% increase year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 19,989 million RMB [9][10] - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 8,850 million RMB, marking a 55.35% increase, showcasing the company's effective global strategy [9][10] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted forecast for diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.53, 0.64, and 0.77 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.4, 13.5, and 11.3 [6][8] - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 26,379 million RMB, with a growth rate of 9.8% [8][12] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 1,424 million RMB, with a projected EBITDA margin improvement over the years [8][12]

Core Insights - The report from the China Listed Companies Association indicates that 5,412 listed companies have published their 2024 annual reports, with a total cash dividend amounting to nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][2] - In 2024, the total operating revenue of listed companies reached 71.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.46% in Q4 and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 8.11%, indicating a positive trend in company performance [1] - The net profit for listed companies in Q1 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89.71%, further solidifying the recovery trend [1] Company Performance - Nearly 60% of listed companies achieved positive revenue growth, showcasing an overall improvement in performance [1] - High-tech manufacturing companies saw a revenue increase of 6.66% in 2024, driven by policies promoting innovation and industrial upgrades [1] - The industrial metals sector experienced rapid growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 6.92% and 29.22%, respectively [2] R&D and Innovation - Listed companies' total R&D investment reached 1.88 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of nearly 60 billion yuan from the previous year, accounting for 51.96% of the national R&D expenditure [2] - The innovative pharmaceutical and medical device sectors reported positive revenue growth, with the innovative drug sector's net profit increasing by 13.31% [2] Dividend and Share Buyback Trends - A total of 3,751 listed companies have announced or implemented cash dividend plans for 2024, with an average dividend payout ratio of 37.78% [2] - The number of companies implementing quarterly or semi-annual dividends increased significantly, with 1,013 companies participating [2] - In 2024, 1,564 new share buyback plans were announced, with a total proposed buyback amount of 227.4 billion yuan, and 14 companies planning to repurchase over 1 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Upstream Index (H300 Upstream) has shown a recent increase of 12.00% over the past month, despite a decline of 2.47% over the last three months and a year-to-date decrease of 2.19% [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The H300 Upstream Index reported a value of 2304.31 points [1]. - The index is based on the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Index, which selects securities according to industry classification to reflect the overall performance of various thematic securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the H300 Upstream Index are: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (29.2%) - PetroChina Company Limited (12.49%) - Zijin Mining Group (10.46%) - China Shenhua Energy Company (9.9%) - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (9.54%) - China Hongqiao Group (3.74%) - China Coal Energy Company (3.28%) - Zhaojin Mining Industry Company (3.26%) - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (2.64%) - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (2.41%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Composition - The H300 Upstream Index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. - The sector composition of the index includes: - Oil and Gas: 51.64% - Coal: 17.92% - Precious Metals: 15.77% - Industrial Metals: 10.00% - Rare Metals: 3.17% - Oil and Gas Extraction and Oilfield Services: 1.07% - Other Non-ferrous Metals and Alloys: 0.43% [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year. Temporary adjustments may occur under special circumstances [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has been significantly increased in holdings, with copper and gold seeing the most substantial increases in Q1 2025. The sector is currently in an "overweight" position, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for continued growth [2][3] - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q2 2025, driven by domestic macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting internal demand, which is expected to benefit the industrial metals sector, particularly aluminum [3][5] - The report identifies specific investment opportunities within the sector, recommending increased holdings in rare earth magnetic materials and companies with strong cost control and favorable customer structures in aluminum processing [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market, with a sector increase of 12.0%, ranking first among 28 major industries [5][12] - The sector's performance is attributed to global monetary policy shifts towards easing and enhanced expectations for domestic economic recovery [5][12] Sub-Sectors Performance - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals sector showed the best performance in Q1 2025, with gold and silver prices increasing by 36.4% and 32.6% year-on-year, respectively. The sector's net profit rose by 51.8% year-on-year [45][46] - **Base Metals**: Base metals, excluding nickel, saw price increases, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 11.3% and 7.4% year-on-year. The net profit for copper increased by 79.6% year-on-year [38][41] - **Rare Metals**: The rare metals sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly in the cobalt market, which has seen price increases due to supply disruptions [51][53] Holdings Situation - In Q1 2025, the overall holding ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector increased to 1.30%, up from 1.09% in Q4 2024, indicating a shift from underweight to a slight overweight position [56][57]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tariffs on various industries, particularly focusing on consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Elasticity and Profit Impact**: A static estimate indicates a tariff elasticity of 1.7, meaning a 10% increase in tariffs leads to a 17% decline in U.S.-China trade volume. This is used to assess the net profit impact across industries based on their revenue exposure to the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Overreaction in Stock Prices**: Industries such as consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals have experienced significant stock price declines that exceed the actual net profit damage, indicating a need for valuation adjustments due to long-term revenue shortages [1][5]. - **Ongoing Risks Under Current Tariff Scenarios**: Maintaining the current 145% equivalent tariff or a worse scenario of 125% equivalent tariff plus a 20% offset could lead to continued risks of stock price declines across various sectors [1][6]. - **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Under the 232 investigation results, a 25% tariff (totaling 45%) will significantly affect kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals, while consumer electronics have been excluded from this category [1][7]. - **Potential for Negotiation Progress**: If U.S.-China negotiations yield positive results, tariffs could revert to a 54% level, allowing for some industries to rebound from their current depressed state [1][8]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: In the most favorable scenario, if the 125% equivalent tariff is removed and only a 20% anti-dumping tariff is applied without introducing new products subject to a 25% tariff, industries such as small appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, communication equipment, textile manufacturing, and certain industrial metal sectors could see significant recovery [1][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Opportunities**: The focus should also be on emerging export categories with low global penetration and potential for growth, such as automotive parts, shipbuilding, machinery, medical devices, and chemical products. Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity in these sectors are better positioned to withstand risks [2][10]. - **Traditional Advantage Industries**: Industries where China holds a significant share of global production and market power, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), electronic components, and chemicals, are likely to maintain their competitive edge despite high tariffs due to supply chain and cost advantages [10].

Core Insights - The overall performance of listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets shows resilience, with 74% reporting profits and 50% experiencing profit growth, driven by stable growth policies [2][3] - The first quarter of 2025 indicates continued recovery in revenue and profit growth, with artificial intelligence leading the technological wave [2][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, listed companies' operating income accounted for 56% of GDP, with total profits equivalent to 54.9% of large-scale industrial enterprises [3] - 74% of listed companies achieved profitability, with 48% showing positive profit growth [3] - The financial sector reported a net profit of 2.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [3] Sector Performance - The agricultural, electronic, transportation, automotive, and retail sectors showed significant profit growth, with net profits in the food and beverage sector increasing by 5.6% [4] - The transportation sector's net profit grew by 11.5%, with airlines and airports seeing substantial increases of 75.6% and 69.3% respectively [5] - The AI technology sector is thriving, with semiconductor and consumer electronics industries reporting net profit growth of 13.2% and 12.9% respectively [6] R&D and Innovation - Over half of the listed companies are focusing on strategic emerging industries, with R&D expenses totaling 1.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 3.1% increase year-on-year [7] - Companies with R&D intensity greater than 10% account for 16.1% of the total [7] Consumer Trends - Consumer spending is steadily increasing, with policies stimulating demand for durable goods, leading to profit growth in the home appliance and automotive sectors [4] - The entertainment sector, driven by popular media, saw a 39.1% increase in net profit in the first quarter of 2025 [8] Capital Market Activity - Listed companies are experiencing improved cash flow, with a significant increase in cash dividends and share buybacks, reaching a record high of 2.39 trillion yuan in total dividends for the 2024 fiscal year [9][10] - The number of share buyback plans increased to 1,470, with a total amount of 212.3 billion yuan, marking a substantial rise from the previous year [10]