Core Viewpoint - A-shares have shown positive performance recently, driven by a combination of financial policies, tariff adjustments, and better-than-expected foreign trade data for April [1][2][3]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3403.95 points during the week of May 12-16, with a weekly increase of 0.76%. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.52% and 1.38%, respectively [1][2]. - The financial sector, particularly large financial stocks, played a significant role in the market rebound, with notable gains in bank stocks [2]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors contributed to the recent market performance, including positive outcomes from US-China trade talks, easing of tariff tensions, and strong performance in April's export data [2][3]. - A package of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, has also been a key stimulus for the market [3]. Sector Performance - Among various sectors, beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive industries showed strong performance, each exceeding a 2% increase [2][3]. - The non-bank financial sector is noted for having a lower valuation percentile, indicating potential for valuation improvement [3]. Market Sentiment - Institutional investor sentiment has shown signs of recovery, while individual investor sentiment has been declining [4][5]. - The market is currently in a rotation trading phase, with rapid shifts in sector focus and a lack of sustained momentum in any single sector [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience a period of adjustment and consolidation, with recommendations to shift focus from high-performing sectors to those with lower recent gains [8][10]. - The overall domestic economic fundamentals remain weak, with April's social financing and loan data reflecting seasonal declines [11].

Global Market Overview - In the week from May 12 to May 16, 2025, overseas markets saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 indices rising by 7.15% and 5.27% respectively, while the S&P 500, Russell 1000, and Russell 3000 indices all gained over 5%[2][9] - The valuation levels in the US stock market expanded in an orderly manner alongside the index increases, while the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 2.09% but saw a PE contraction of 0.53x[2][9] A-share Market Insights - A-share core broad-based valuations experienced moderate expansion, while small-cap valuations significantly declined. The CSI 1000 and National 2000 indices saw valuation reductions of 1.24x and 0.39x respectively[2][30] - As of May 16, 2025, major A-share indices' PE, PB, and PS ratios were positioned between the 50%-95% percentiles for the past year, with PCF ratios in the 80%-90% range, indicating a further rise in valuation percentiles[2][31] Sector Performance - Most primary sectors recorded gains, with consumer discretionary and large financials leading the way. The largest increases were seen in beauty care (3.08%), non-bank financials (2.49%), and banks (1.43%)[2][51] - Valuation changes varied across sectors, with beauty care and automotive sectors expanding by 1.19x and 0.64x respectively, while the computer and defense sectors contracted by 0.99x and 0.97x[2][51] Valuation Comparisons - The consumer staples sector showed superior valuation attractiveness, with food and beverage sectors having three- and five-year average valuation percentiles of only 17.45% and 10.49% respectively, indicating potential for valuation recovery[2][2] - Emerging industries displayed mixed performance, with biotechnology leading gains, while the digital economy sectors, including cloud computing and semiconductors, faced declines of 2.24%, 1.58%, and 1.67% respectively[2][2] Risk Considerations - Key risks include uncertainties surrounding overseas monetary policy and the potential for rapid valuation increases in certain sectors, particularly textiles and beauty care, which currently have one-year valuation percentiles exceeding 96%[2][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a focus on relative opportunities in the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors [19][21] - The model predicts a potential shift to a downward trend for the Wande All A Index, indicating a possible adjustment phase in May [19][26] - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its relative stability and potential for returns, while the dividend sector is also expected to perform well after a short-term adjustment [19][21] Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (May 12-16, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: North Certificate 50 (3.13%), Wande Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.58%), and ChiNext Index (1.38%) [10] - The bottom three indices were: Sci-Tech Innovation 100 (-1.29%), Sci-Tech Innovation 50 (-1.10%), and Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index (-1.00%) [10] A-share Market Outlook (May 19-23, 2025) - The Wande All A Index's daily model shifted from a positive to a negative signal on May 15, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [19][26] - The monthly model for May scored -2.5, indicating a slight adjustment in the A-share market [19][26] - The report anticipates a "V-shaped" market movement, with ongoing pressure on trading volumes [19] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive ETF allocation strategy, focusing on the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors for relative returns [19][21]

2025 年 05 月 17 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期继续震荡偏强，科技仍是主线 定期报告 投资要点 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 2025.5.7 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 2025.5.5 新股板块震荡难掩局部积极信号，临近休整 尾端关注逐步变盘可能-华金证券新股周报 2025.5.5 加仓汽车、化工、地产，减仓军工、交运 2025.4.30 部 分 周 期 和 消 费 行 业 一 季 报 可 能 偏 好 2025.4.29 定期报告 市场对分子端的担忧可能过于悲观。（1）大幅降低关税可能改善短期经济增长预 期。一是复盘 2018 至 2019 年 4 次中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，可以看到贸易摩擦 缓和有利于改善出口，但 A 股表现更多受国内经济基本面和政策、外部事件等影响。 二是本次超预期的降低关税将大幅改善经济基 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed significant differentiation last week (May 12 to May 16), with large-cap stocks performing well while small-cap and Sci-Tech Innovation Board faced slight pressure. The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose by 1.22% and 1.12% respectively, indicating the defensive advantage of undervalued blue-chip stocks. The ChiNext 50 increased by 2.00%, reflecting the attractiveness of large-cap growth sectors. Conversely, the Sci-Tech 50 fell by 1.10%, possibly due to underwhelming earnings from some semiconductor companies and capital diversion to other tech sectors [2][12]. Industry Performance - Last week, 65% of sectors achieved positive returns, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors performing relatively well, rising by 3.08%, 2.49%, and 2.40% respectively. In contrast, media, defense, and computer sectors showed significant weakness, declining by 0.77%, 1.18%, and 1.26% respectively [2][14]. Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 12 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 24.004 billion units [2][20]. Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index rose by 0.17% last week. The ordinary equity fund index increased by 0.26%, while the mixed equity fund index rose by 0.30%. The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [3][10]. Global Asset Review - Global markets exhibited significant divergence last week, with equity markets generally rising, driven by technology stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased by 4.54% and 6.60% respectively, propelled by better-than-expected earnings from AI leaders like Nvidia. European markets also showed resilience, with the German DAX and French CAC both rising over 0.8%, reflecting enhanced economic resilience in the Eurozone. The Hang Seng Index in the Asia-Pacific region rose by 2.09%, influenced by positive signals from US-China trade talks [5][6]. Domestic Bond Market Review - Last week, the 10-year and 30-year government bond futures fell by 0.51% and 1.17% respectively, indicating upward pressure on yields. The short-term funding spread (R007-DR007) showed no significant compression compared to the previous week, while medium to long-term rates remained low [15][19].

Core Insights - The financial reports for 2024 and Q1 2025 reveal significant fluctuations in A-share performance, with a notable recovery in net profit growth in Q1 2025 after a substantial decline in 2024 [2][6][26] Group 1: Financial Performance Analysis - The net profit growth rate for non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 was 3.31%, a recovery from a -13.36% decline in 2024 [2][5] - The increase in net profit in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by operating income, which contributed 212.33 billion yuan, and financial investment income, which added 114.01 billion yuan [2][5] - The significant drop in net profit in Q4 2024 was mainly due to a sharp decline in operating income, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 12.42% [3][5] Group 2: Impacts of Impairment Losses - The 2024 annual report indicated a substantial increase in asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses, which significantly pressured net profit [6][9] - Key industries affected by impairment losses included non-ferrous metals, retail, machinery, transportation, and communications [9] Group 3: Value Changes and Government Subsidies - In Q1 2025, fair value changes in financial investments saw a significant increase, contributing to net profit growth [11][14] - Government subsidies related to daily business activities increased, particularly in sectors like real estate, social services, and public infrastructure, with "other income" reaching 889.59 billion yuan [16] Group 4: Industry Performance and Cash Flow - Industries showing significant improvement in operating income in Q1 2025 included steel, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and machinery, with some sectors like agriculture and construction materials also reporting high growth rates [18][19] - Adjusted operating cash flow metrics indicate potential for improved cash generation in sectors such as agriculture, electronics, and household appliances [20][21] Group 5: Strategic Expansion Trends - Strategic expansion activities, including internal capacity expansion and external acquisitions, accelerated in Q1 2025, particularly in the automotive, household appliances, and coal industries [24][25] Group 6: Free Cash Flow and Stakeholder Returns - The ability of companies to generate free cash flow to meet stakeholder demands reached historical highs, with 13.70% of non-financial A-share companies able to cover their obligations [26][27]

- The report tracks the performance of various factors in different stock pools, including the CSI 300, CSI 500, and Liquidity 1500 stock pools[1][2][3] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate (1.02%), single-quarter EPS (1.00%), and PE ratio factor (0.89%)[12][13] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were EPTTM percentile (1.30%), PB ratio factor (1.07%), and operating cash flow ratio (0.97%)[14][15] - In the Liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were post-morning return factor (2.27%), momentum spring factor (1.43%), and PE TTM reciprocal (1.33%)[16][17] - The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 and CSI 800 stock pools this week, with excess returns of 0.88% and 0.43% respectively[24][25] - The institutional research portfolio tracking strategy achieved positive excess returns this week, with the private equity research tracking strategy achieving an excess return of 0.22% relative to the CSI 800[26][27] - The block trading portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.36% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[30][31] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.48% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[35][36]

Financial Market Dynamics - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.4%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.07%, and ChiNext down by 0.19%, with trading volume shrinking to 1.09 trillion yuan. The logistics, beauty care, insurance, and liquor sectors performed poorly, but over 3,000 stocks rose, including a limit-up for Yuzhisanxia A [1] - COMEX gold futures fell below $3,200 per ounce, marking a four-month low, with technical support seen at $3,140-$3,150, indicating a continued bearish trend [1] Policy and Economic - The first home down payment ratio in China has been reduced to 15%, and 25% for second homes, leading to a rebound in transaction volumes. In Nanjing, new home subscriptions in June increased by 29.8% month-on-month, and second-hand home transactions reached a year-to-date high, showing signs of price stabilization [5] - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, is set to reassess its monetary policy framework, potentially moving away from the average inflation targeting approach to a more flexible strategy [6] - The U.S. and China have paused some tariff increases, with 24% tariffs suspended for 90 days and remaining tariffs reduced to 10%. China has refused to lift rare earth export controls, and the U.S. attempts to exchange tariff reductions for rare earth concessions have not succeeded [8] Industry and Company Dynamics - Starbucks is considering selling its business in China due to competition from local brands like Luckin Coffee, and is evaluating the sale of part of its stake to address the pressure [9] - AI pharmaceutical company Insilico Medicine has submitted its third IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its AI-generated drug Rentosertib completing phase II clinical trials but accumulating losses exceeding $450 million [11] - The CEO of Novo Nordisk has resigned due to declining competitiveness in the obesity drug market, with Eli Lilly's Zepbound prescriptions surpassing its Wegovy [12] - Hungary's battery industry has faced a significant downturn, with production plummeting by 41% year-on-year, as government-led green transitions have failed to boost the economy [13] - Canadian oil exports to China have surged, with daily imports reaching 207,000 barrels, significantly exceeding historical levels, driven by tensions in U.S.-Canada relations [13] Company Announcements and Events - Tai Ling Microelectronics has reduced its stake by 2% to 6.95% as part of a divestment by the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [14] - A fatal accident occurred at the Mengjin coal mine, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dayou Energy, leading to a production halt for investigation [15] - Haixing Electric Power has established an industrial fund with an investment of 400 million yuan to focus on new energy and IoT sectors [16]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% on May 16, with 15 industries experiencing gains, led by the automotive and machinery sectors, which rose by 1.91% and 0.83% respectively [1] - The beauty and personal care sector had the largest decline, dropping by 1.31%, followed by the non-bank financial sector, which fell by 1.21% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 307 million yuan, with 14 industries seeing net inflows. The automotive sector led with a net inflow of 4.616 billion yuan, while the basic chemical industry had a net inflow of 1.981 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.60% [1] - Conversely, 17 industries experienced net outflows, with the non-bank financial sector seeing the largest outflow of 1.925 billion yuan, followed by the transportation sector with a net outflow of 1.250 billion yuan [1] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector saw a decline of 1.31% with a net outflow of 294 million yuan. Out of 31 stocks in this sector, 11 rose while 20 fell [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Qingdao Kingking with 50.67 million yuan, followed by Zhongshun Jierou and Yiyi Co., with net inflows of 20.55 million yuan and 9.64 million yuan respectively [2] - Notable stocks with significant net outflows included Furuida with 151 million yuan, Aimeike with 49.19 million yuan, and Qingsong Co. with 38.32 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top stocks in the beauty and personal care sector based on capital flow include: - Furuida: -3.82% with a net outflow of 150.98 million yuan [3] - Aimeike: -2.06% with a net outflow of 49.19 million yuan [3] - Qingsong Co.: -7.34% with a net outflow of 38.32 million yuan [3] - Other notable performers include: - Qingdao Kingking: +1.89% with a net inflow of 50.67 million yuan [3] - Zhongshun Jierou: +0.87% with a net inflow of 20.55 million yuan [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40% on May 16, with 15 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the automotive and machinery equipment sectors, which increased by 1.91% and 0.83% respectively [2] - The beauty care and non-bank financial sectors experienced the largest declines, falling by 1.31% and 1.21% respectively [2] - The transportation sector declined by 0.81% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of capital in the two markets was 307 million yuan, with 14 sectors seeing net inflows [2] - The automotive sector had the highest net inflow of capital, totaling 4.616 billion yuan, contributing to its 1.91% increase [2] - The basic chemical sector also saw a net inflow of 1.981 billion yuan, with a daily increase of 0.60% [2] - Conversely, 17 sectors experienced net outflows, with the non-bank financial sector leading with a net outflow of 1.925 billion yuan [2] - The transportation sector followed with a net outflow of 1.250 billion yuan, along with significant outflows in the computer, food and beverage, and electronics sectors [2] Transportation Sector Performance - The transportation sector had 125 stocks, with 19 stocks rising and 103 stocks declining [3] - Among the stocks with net inflows, the top performer was Sanyangma, with a net inflow of 60.2749 million yuan, followed by Daqin Railway and Feilida with inflows of 45.1952 million yuan and 30.3601 million yuan respectively [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Lianyungang, Zhongyuan Haifa, and Ningbo Ocean, with outflows of 222.539 million yuan, 171.090 million yuan, and 131.091 million yuan respectively [3] Top Gainers and Losers in Transportation Sector - **Top Gainers**: - Sanyangma: +9.99%, 6027.49 million yuan inflow [4] - Chongqing Port: +1.41%, 2448.82 million yuan inflow [4] - **Top Losers**: - Lianyungang: -10.04%, 22165.39 million yuan outflow [6] - Zhongyuan Haifa: -6.62%, 17090.73 million yuan outflow [6]