Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector is experiencing significant stock price increases due to ongoing concerns over reduced overseas supply, which has driven aluminum prices to new highs in the international market [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - China Aluminum (601600) shares rose by 5.3%, reaching HKD 13.32; Nanshan Aluminum (600219) increased by 2.9% to HKD 51.1; China Hongqiao (01378) gained 2.82%, trading at HKD 34.98 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 0.8% to USD 3021 per ton, reflecting a strong upward trend in aluminum prices [1] - New Lake Futures indicated that the market remains influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a speculative atmosphere leading to potential high volatility in aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guojin Securities forecasts that the cost reduction benefits will continue until 2026, with supply constraints due to production capacity limits and power restrictions, while low inventory and diverse demand may exceed expectations, supporting high profitability in electrolytic aluminum [1] - Huawen Futures reported that China's alumina production from January to November 2025 reached 81.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.44%, with production capacity expected to recover in the second half of the year as costs decrease and profits improve [1] - It is anticipated that approximately 15 million tons of new alumina production capacity will be released in China by 2026, primarily in Guangxi and Hebei provinces, alongside an additional 7.5 million tons overseas, mainly in India [1]

华闻期货认为 ，2025年1-11月份我国氧化铝累计产量为8190万吨，累计同比+7.44%，上半年成本压力 下氧化铝企业一度出现集中减产现象，但随着成本下移及利润修复，下半年国内氧化铝行业运行产能重 回高位。从新增产能来看，2026年国内外仍有大量氧化铝产能待释放，预计国内新增产能约1500万吨， 主要在广西、河北两省，海外新增产能约750万吨，主要集中在印度。 智通财经APP获悉，铝业股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.3%，报13.32港元；南山铝业国 际(02610)涨2.9%，报51.1港元；中国宏桥(01378)涨2.82%，报34.98港元。 消息面上，海外供应减少扰动担忧持续推升铝价，上周五外盘铝价再创新高，LME三月期铝价涨0.8% 至3021美元/吨。新湖期货表示，短期市场仍受宏观情绪波动影响，投机氛围较浓，铝价或高位震荡。 国金证券指出，展望2026年，预计成本下降红利将延续，中国产能天花板将至+电力制约带来供应端紧 约束，低库存+需求多元有望超预期，看好电解铝高盈利继续扩张。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China, as the world's largest producer of steel, copper, and aluminum, has achieved significant indirect exports of these metals through the export of finished products [4] Direct Exports - In 2024, direct exports of steel, copper, and aluminum will account for 11%, 9%, and 15% of China's production, respectively, with crude steel production at 1 billion tons (53% of global production), electrolytic copper at 13.64 million tons (50%), and electrolytic aluminum at 4.401 million tons (60%) [5] - The export volumes for 2024 are projected to be 11.106 million tons of steel, 0.129 million tons of copper, and 0.663 million tons of aluminum, with corresponding percentages for Q1-Q3 2025 being 12%, 10%, and 13% [5] Indirect Exports of Steel - In 2024, indirect exports of steel will account for 13% of China's crude steel production, with a total of 12.848 million tons exported, including 4.98 million tons of steel products and 5.392 million tons of machinery [6] - For Q1-Q3 2025, the indirect export volume is expected to reach 110 million tons, representing 14% of crude steel production [6] Indirect Exports of Copper - In 2024, indirect exports of copper will account for 11% of China's copper production, totaling 2.65 million tons, with significant contributions from home appliances (0.86 million tons) and cables (1.17 million tons) [7] - For Q1-Q3 2025, indirect copper exports are projected to be 0.225 million tons, representing 12% of production [7] Indirect Exports of Aluminum - In 2024, indirect exports of aluminum will account for 11% of China's aluminum production, with 7.36 million tons exported, including 4.205 million tons of aluminum products [8] - For Q1-Q3 2025, the indirect export volume is expected to be 0.62 million tons, representing 12% of aluminum production [8] Incremental Exports - The combined incremental exports of steel, copper, and aluminum (both direct and indirect) will account for 6%, 5%, and 4% of their respective production in 2024 [9] - Direct export increments will represent 2%, 1%, and 1% of production, while indirect export increments will account for 4% for each metal [9]

04 成本端 海外库存偏低，价格抬升 铝月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2025年12月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4459.8万吨，12月电解铝产量环比增加3.9%，同比增长1.9%。12月 海外电解铝产量258.1万吨，环比增加3.6%，同比增长2.2%。2025年12月国内铝水比例环比下降0.8%，预计2026年1月继续下调。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTELL数据，2025年12月末铝锭现货库存录得63.8万吨，环比增加4.8万吨。铝棒库存合计14.7万吨，环比增加0.4万吨。据 SMM统计，12月末保税区库存录得5.5万吨，环比下降0.5万吨。LME铝库存录得50.9万吨，环比减少2.9万吨。国内华东铝锭现货基差走弱， LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄。 ◆ 进出口：20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall pattern of the electrolytic aluminum market remains bullish in the medium - term, with a high - level oscillation expected in January. The macro - sentiment is the dominant factor. Supply constraints are formed by technological transformation in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan, while overseas LME inventory is at a low level year - on - year and is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term. Although the demand in downstream new - energy vehicle and photovoltaic fields is growing rapidly, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure of the off - season, and the market is mainly for replenishing essential supplies. [5] - In the short term, it is advisable to exit the market and wait and see for short - term long positions, while continue to hold medium - term long positions. Spot enterprises are advised to hold sufficient spot inventories for hedging. [8] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The Guinea general election is basically settled. The future mining rectification in Guinea is expected to focus on "cleaning up the stock and optimizing the structure", and large - scale mines in production face a low risk of policy - related shutdown. The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price range of Guinean bauxite in 2026 by mainstream institutions is $58 - 68 per ton. [9] - **Alumina Market**: As of the end of December, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.14%. The new alumina production capacity in 2026 is about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, and the overseas new capacity scale may be limited. In 2026, the domestic market may start production cuts at the beginning of the year, driving up prices, but the subsequent复产 will lead to a "shortage - then - surplus" cycle in the second half of the year. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons, both slightly higher than the previous month. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear in 2026. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,300 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The implementation of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, may increase the short - term export cost. [9] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 638,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 35% higher than the same period last year. The inventory in factories and the social inventory are still at a relatively low level since 2022. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,600 tons, an increase of about 11% from last week and about 20% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a low level in recent years. [9] - **Profit**: The average full cost of the domestic alumina industry in the recent month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton and a theoretical profit of about 0 yuan per ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of about 5,500 yuan per ton. [10] - **Market Expectation**: The positive macro - sentiment still dominates. In the first quarter, the supply will increase slightly while the demand is disturbed by factors such as the Spring Festival, so the supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum may be prominent, and the price may reach a relative low point around the Spring Festival, but it is advisable to consider laying out long positions. In the second quarter, with the implementation of fiscal stimulus policies at home and abroad, the price has a driving force to rise again. [10] 3.2 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of imported and domestic bauxite are generally stable, with few market transactions. The domestic coal price has dropped significantly recently, and the advantage of imported coal is significantly compressed. The terminal power plant has sufficient inventory and purchases cautiously, and the coal price is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term. The alumina spot market is stable this week, and low prices attract some buyers. The market has great differences in the recent trend of alumina, but the pessimistic sentiment still dominates. [11] 3.3 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The bauxite inventory at domestic ports has been slightly declining since the end of November. With the resumption of production of some mines in Guinea, the arrival pressure next year is still high, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. Alumina has been in the process of inventory accumulation since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and although the overall inventory level is relatively low since 2022, the high price and the off - season have restricted the warehouse shipment volume. The LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years. [13][15][16] 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - **Downstream Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss, and the electrolytic aluminum has a relatively high theoretical profit, but the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum exists. [18] - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 59.9% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline steadily in January. The operating rates of some sub - sectors such as aluminum strips, cables, and profiles have decreased. [24][25] 3.5 Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a contango market structure, and the electrolytic aluminum output can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches. [29] 3.6 Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,520 yuan per ton, and the current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which has a negative impact on electrolytic aluminum. [35][36] 3.7 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since November 2025, the long camp has remained stable while the short camp has significantly reduced positions. Overall, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating - profit positions are heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur. [38] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force has converged this week. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the long camp increased slightly while the short camp slightly reduced positions. The net short position of funds mainly for financial speculation continued to increase slightly, and the net long position of funds from middle and lower - stream enterprises is in a wait - and - see state. Overall, the main funds are still relatively cautious about the recent rise. [41]

（原标题：中国宏桥(01378)：宏拓实业成为宏创控股全资子公司） 智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，关宏创控股拟向宏拓实业现有股东(包括魏桥铝电)发行新 股以购买其持有的目标股份及与本次交易相关的交易文件。宏创控股于2025年12月31日收到中国证券监 督管理委员会出具的《关于同意山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司发行股份购买资产注册的批复》(证监 许可〔2025〕2970号)。批复文件的主要内容为同意宏创控股向魏桥铝电等九家交易对手方发行股份购 买相关资产的注册申请。 在收到前述批复后，于同日，宏拓实业100%股权已全部过户登记至宏创控股名下，本次交易标的资产 过户事宜已完成，宏拓实业成为宏创控股全资子公司。 宏创控股将根据上述批复文件和相关法律法规的要求及宏创控股股东会的授权，在规定期限内办理本次 交易其他事宜，包括但不限于宏创控股新增股份相关登记上市手续。 fund ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) announced that Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue new shares to existing shareholders of Hongtuo Industrial, including Weiqiao Aluminum, to acquire target shares and related transaction documents [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - Hongchuang Holdings received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on December 31, 2025, for the issuance of shares to acquire assets [1] - The approval document allows Hongchuang Holdings to issue shares to nine counterparties, including Weiqiao Aluminum, for the purchase of related assets [1] - Following the approval, 100% equity of Hongtuo Industrial has been transferred to Hongchuang Holdings, making Hongtuo Industrial a wholly-owned subsidiary [1] Group 2: Future Actions - Hongchuang Holdings will proceed with other transaction matters within the stipulated timeframe, including the registration and listing procedures for the newly issued shares, as authorized by the shareholders' meeting [1]

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：节前领衔有色板块上涨，伦敦盘假日续涨 ◆ 铝金属在节前一度领衔传统有色板块上涨，国内元旦休市期间伦敦盘亦收涨，预计明日国内小幅跳涨开盘。现阶段 铝现货端表现确实羸弱，但边际或已经触及较差状态，期现基差走阔引致的无风险套利空间大概率能使得元旦后现 货的基差贴水向上修复。在1季度权益市场若提前发动春季躁动行情，不排除再次引发股期联动的资金行为，资金轮 动配置行情下，铝金属向上空间仍值得期待。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，表现偏弱。截至12月29日，铝锭社库较上周四累库2.6万吨至63.8万吨。截至12月31日， SMM华东现货贴水继续扩大至-210元/吨，华南现货贴水亦进一步扩大至-290元/吨。下游方面，截至1月1日铝板带 箔周度总产量环比继续回落，年初迄今累计同比下降-1.64%，降幅较前周温和收敛；截至12月31日，铝型材开工环 比上周回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the aluminum industry, particularly focusing on the acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial by Hongchuang Holdings for 63.518 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and optimize the industry structure [1][2]. Group 1: M&A Details - Hongchuang Holdings plans to acquire 100% equity of Hongtuo Industrial for 63.518 billion yuan, marking the largest M&A deal among private enterprises in A-shares since the "Six Merger Rules" were introduced [2]. - The transaction will involve issuing 11.895 billion shares at a price of 5.34 yuan per share, significantly increasing Hongchuang's total assets and revenue, allowing it to enter the ranks of global large-scale aluminum producers [2][3]. - The acquisition is expected to reverse Hongchuang's continuous losses and improve its governance structure, as Hongtuo Industrial is a core asset of China Hongqiao, a leading integrated aluminum producer [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Prior to the acquisition, Hongchuang Holdings had total assets of only 3.1 billion yuan and a market capitalization of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, while Hongtuo Industrial reported revenues of 128.953 billion yuan and net profits of 6.747 billion yuan in 2023 [3][4]. - Post-acquisition, Hongchuang's total assets and revenue are projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, significantly enhancing its financial standing [2][3]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the acquisition, Hongchuang's stock price surged nearly fourfold, making it the best-performing stock in the aluminum sector [5][7]. - The aluminum industry is currently experiencing a bullish cycle, with aluminum prices rising significantly, which is expected to benefit companies like Hongchuang and China Hongqiao [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints, with estimates suggesting prices could reach 24,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton in the near future [13][14]. - The favorable cost structure for Hongchuang, with a projected aluminum production cost of only 13,200 yuan per ton, positions it well for profit expansion as upstream alumina prices decline [14][16]. - The merger is anticipated to create a comprehensive aluminum industry group, enhancing Hongchuang's capabilities in green production and aligning with industry trends towards low-carbon development [10].

Market Overview - The market is expected to experience style differentiation as it approaches the Spring Festival, maintaining a structural trend under narrow fluctuations[4] - Key focus areas include the release of December and annual economic data in late January and a concentrated period of earnings forecasts[4] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes three main lines: 1. High-growth and high-elasticity sectors, including AI hardware (e.g., optical modules), energy storage, lithium batteries, and non-ferrous metals[4] 2. Market hot tracks such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and cultural tourism[4] 3. Low-position large financial sectors, focusing on high-certainty performance in brokerage, insurance, and banks with dividend expectations[4] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.87 in 2025 and a PE of 17.6[28] - **Chemicals**: Yara International (000893.SZ) with a projected EPS of 2.06 in 2025 and a PE of 23.3[28] - **New Energy**: Slin Smart Drive (301550.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.32 in 2025 and a PE of 105.0[28] - **Machinery**: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a projected EPS of 2.19 in 2025 and a PE of 50.2[28] - **Aerospace**: AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (000768.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.42 in 2025 and a PE of 60.3[28] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) with a projected EPS of 1.76 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) with a projected EPS of 11.82 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Social Services**: Jin Jiang International (600754.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.89 in 2025 and a PE of 28.3[28] - **Electronics**: Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.77 in 2025 and a PE of 109.8[28] - **Telecommunications**: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) with a projected EPS of 9.47 in 2025 and a PE of 64.4[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation[34] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[34]