华泰证券研报称，上市券商、大型券商2025年前9个月归母净利润同比分别增长62%、56%。大券商三 季报关注四点核心变化：1.三季度总资产扩张延续，金融投资与客户资金双增。2.投资驱动增长，自营 杠杆提升。3.经纪随市高增，融出资金显著增长。4.投行低位回暖，资管稳健。往前看，资本市场底层 逻辑转变，深化投融资协调发展，同时低利率时代资产配置重塑，增量资金形成正循环。在此背景下， 券商经营环境向好，业绩弹性和持续性增强，看好板块高性价比的估值修复机会。当前板块A、H估值 仍处于中低位，标的选择关注：1.港股估值更优、且流通盘更小；2.具备估值性价比的A股龙头；3.特色 中型券商。 NO.3 中信建投：铝强势领跑有色板块，行业利润高位再扩张 ｜2025年11月6日 星期四｜ NO.1 中信证券：展望明年 多种因素仍然很可能主导金价上行 11月6日，中信证券研报指出，总结历史规律，黄金的长期价格走势与地缘政治和经济形势高度相关。 黄金价格上行的驱动力通常来自地缘政治的混乱和美国经济的弱势表现，下行风险则可以总结为五类： 美国经济转好、美联储转鹰、美国强财政纪律、地缘局势缓和、全球央行卖金，而目前这些风险都不显 著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by concerns over tightening global supply of electrolytic aluminum due to production disruptions and limited capacity growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, China Aluminum (601600)(02600) has risen by 10.99% to HKD 10.91, while China Hongqiao (01378) has increased by 9.83% to HKD 32.4 [1] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Century Aluminum announced a production reduction at its Grundartangi smelter due to a malfunction, affecting a capacity of 200,000 tons [1] - South32 indicated that its Mozal smelter may undergo maintenance due to power supply issues, potentially leading to a shutdown by March 2026, impacting a capacity of 500,000 tons [1] - CITIC Securities suggests a high probability of the Mozal shutdown, which could have significant implications for the aluminum industry, similar to the Cobre Panama situation [1] Group 3: Demand and Price Outlook - Huatai Securities notes that domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling, and they have analyzed potential overseas projects, estimating a global supply growth rate of only 1.9% for next year, a significant slowdown compared to the 2024/2025 period [1] - The demand side is expected to grow at approximately 2.3% next year, driven by a recovery in global manufacturing, leading to an overall supply-demand gap projected to widen to 800,000 tons [1] - Global LME aluminum prices are anticipated to rise above USD 3,200 per ton next year due to these dynamics [1]

NO.2 华泰证券：看好券商板块高性价比的估值修复机会 华泰证券研报称，上市券商、大型券商2025年前9个月归母净利润同比分别增长62%、56%。大券商三 季报关注四点核心变化：1.三季度总资产扩张延续，金融投资与客户资金双增。2.投资驱动增长，自营 杠杆提升。3.经纪随市高增，融出资金显著增长。4.投行低位回暖，资管稳健。往前看，资本市场底层 逻辑转变，深化投融资协调发展，同时低利率时代资产配置重塑，增量资金形成正循环。在此背景下， 券商经营环境向好，业绩弹性和持续性增强，看好板块高性价比的估值修复机会。当前板块A、H估值 仍处于中低位，标的选择关注：1.港股估值更优、且流通盘更小；2.具备估值性价比的A股龙头；3.特色 中型券商。 NO.3 中信建投：铝强势领跑有色板块，行业利润高位再扩张 NO.1 中信证券：展望明年 多种因素仍然很可能主导金价上行 11月6日，中信证券研报指出，总结历史规律，黄金的长期价格走势与地缘政治和经济形势高度相关。 黄金价格上行的驱动力通常来自地缘政治的混乱和美国经济的弱势表现，下行风险则可以总结为五类： 美国经济转好、美联储转鹰、美国强财政纪律、地缘局势缓和、全球央行卖金，而 ...

Group 1 - The long-term price trend of gold is highly correlated with geopolitical and economic conditions, with upward drivers typically stemming from geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance [1] - Current downward risks for gold prices include a recovering U.S. economy, hawkish Federal Reserve policies, strong fiscal discipline in the U.S., easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold, none of which are currently significant [1] - In the long term, gold is expected to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to risks associated with de-globalization [1] Group 2 - Listed securities firms and large brokerages reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 62% and 56% respectively for the first nine months of 2025 [2] - Key changes in the third quarter for large brokerages include continued total asset expansion, growth in financial investments and client funds, increased self-operated leverage, significant growth in brokerage services, and a recovery in investment banking [2] - The operating environment for brokerages is improving, with enhanced performance elasticity and sustainability, making the sector's valuation repair opportunities attractive [2] Group 3 - The demand for electrolytic aluminum grew by 3.9% from January to September, exceeding market expectations [3] - The market anticipates a 2.5% growth in domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption by 2025, driven by better-than-expected performance in new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [3] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry is expanding at high levels, improving the earnings and dividend capabilities of aluminum companies [3]

上银丰瑞一年持有期混合发起式A（019787）基金经理为赵治烨、许佳。 截至发稿，赵治烨累计任职时间10年181天，现任基金资产总规模17.68亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 134.25%， 任职期间最差基金回报-42.27%。 11月6日，神火股份涨5.35%，截至发稿，报26.39元/股，成交7.60亿元，换手率1.31%，总市值593.51亿 元。 资料显示，河南神火煤电股份有限公司位于河南省永城市东城区东环路北段369号，成立日期1998年8月 31日，上市日期1999年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及铝产品、煤炭的生产、加工和销售及发供电。主营 业务收入构成为：电解铝69.40%，煤炭14.11%，铝箔6.41%，铝箔坯料4.44%，贸易3.82%，其他业务 1.73%，运输0.05%，阳极炭块0.03%，型焦0.03%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，上银基金旗下1只基金重仓神火股份。上银丰瑞一年持有期混合发起式A（019787）三季度 持有股数11.36万股，占基金净值比例为0.34%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约15.22 万元。 上银丰瑞一年持有期混合发起式A（019787）成立日 ...

Core Points - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.35%, reaching 26.39 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 760 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.31%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 59.351 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on August 31, 1998, and listed on August 31, 1999, is primarily engaged in the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, with the main revenue sources being electrolytic aluminum (69.40%), coal (14.11%), aluminum foil (6.41%), and other segments [1] Fund Holdings - According to data, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management holds a significant position in Shenhuo Co., Ltd. The Guotai Haitong Vision Value Mixed Fund A (017935) held 319,300 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 5.07% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding [2] - The fund has generated a floating profit of approximately 427,900 CNY as of the report date [2] - The fund was established on March 1, 2023, with a current scale of 77.7945 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 14.68% and a one-year return of 16.64% [2] Fund Manager Information - The fund manager of Guotai Haitong Vision Value Mixed Fund A is Zhu Chenxi, who has been in the position for 2 years and 252 days, managing total assets of 177 million CNY [3] - During Zhu's tenure, the fund has achieved a best return of 33.09% and a worst return of 1.76% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited downside on corrections, and there is potential for an upward breakout if the social inventory drawdown progresses smoothly. The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus, and consumption is showing good growth, with the potential for a real peak consumption season in November - December. For alumina, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. For aluminum alloy, the report is also cautiously bullish [6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; East China aluminum spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,160 yuan/ton, with the spot premium unchanged at - 160 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium is - 145 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract opened at 21,395 yuan/ton, closed at 21,395 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,440 yuan/ton and a low of 21,235 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 193,349 lots, and the open interest was 225,136 lots [2] Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 64,194 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 550,450 tons, down 2,125 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,985 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,995 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 318 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On November 5, 2025, the main alumina futures contract opened at 2,765 yuan/ton, closed at 2,772 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a decrease of 0.11%, with a high of 2,780 yuan/ton and a low of 2,752 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 216,397 lots, and the open interest was 421,899 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 5, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical scrap aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, both down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 58,700 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,120 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 120 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland overseas has reduced production due to an electrical equipment accident, affecting about 200,000 tons of production capacity. Even with the expectation of new and restarted production overseas, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is not in surplus. In terms of consumption, although the peak consumption season has been mediocre in terms of social inventory, the aluminum - water ratio has reached a record high of 77%, indicating good consumption growth and is expected to enter the real peak consumption season in November - December. The smooth progress of Sino - US negotiations is a positive factor, and there are still macro - positive factors. Aluminum price corrections are unlikely to be deep. Attention should be paid to the pace of social inventory drawdown. If the drawdown is smooth, there is potential for aluminum prices to rise [6] Alumina - A northwest aluminum plant purchased 10,000 tons of alumina at a price of 2,990 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. The bauxite shipment from Guinea is expected to resume, and the Ningba Mine has started barge operations to ship 1.5 million tons of inventory. The supply pressure of bauxite remains. The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward - looking alumina due to rich profits and winter - storage demand, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The cost side still has a small downward space, and the reduction in ore prices has not improved the alumina smelting loss. The supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, and there is still an expectation of new production capacity. Currently, there are few positive factors and expectations in the fundamental data [7][8] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish on aluminum, neutral on alumina, and cautiously bullish on aluminum alloy. Arbitrage: Long the near - term and short the far - term in SHFE aluminum [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly driven by the performance of the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), which has seen a price increase of 1.73% and a total inflow of 25.79 million yuan over the past four days [1][3] - The aluminum sector is leading the gains, with notable performances from companies such as Nanshan Aluminum, which hit the daily limit, and China Aluminum, which rose over 4% [1] - The supply of aluminum is expected to remain tight due to China's production capacity reaching its limit and limited growth in Indonesia's capacity, which is anticipated to elevate long-term profit margins in the industry [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that instead of focusing on a single metal, investors should consider a broader allocation across the entire non-ferrous metals sector, as it presents a rare investment opportunity [5] - Key factors driving this opportunity include global monetary easing, supply-demand imbalances, and favorable policy incentives that could lead to a comprehensive recovery in the sector [5][6] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide a diversified investment approach, with significant weightings in copper (27.7%), aluminum (14.4%), gold (13.2%), rare earths (10.2%), and lithium (9.1%), which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal [8]

Core Points - The Aluminum Association, representing over 120 companies and 70% of North America's aluminum producers, emphasizes the importance of aluminum in various industries and its role in the U.S. manufacturing sector [2] - The association highlights the significant job creation in the aluminum industry, directly employing over 164,000 Americans and supporting an additional 500,000 jobs through the supply chain [2] - The association's president, Charles Johnson, will present at a congressional hearing to discuss the impact of the USMCA agreement on the aluminum industry and the need for further actions to combat subsidized aluminum imports from China [3][4] Industry Challenges - Chinese subsidized aluminum continues to flood North America, particularly through Mexico, undermining the achievements of the U.S. aluminum industry [3] - Exports of Chinese aluminum to Mexico and Canada have surged by over 300% since 2017, with specific increases of over 470% to Mexico and nearly 90% to Canada, equivalent to the capacity of a large U.S. rolling mill [3] - Without intervention, the U.S. risks becoming merely an "assembly base," which could have severe implications for the labor market, community development, and national security [3] Recommendations for Policy Action - The Aluminum Association suggests that Mexico should implement a comprehensive aluminum import monitoring system to track the origin of all aluminum products, fulfilling a commitment made in 2019 [3] - It calls for unified tariff standards among the three countries to close loopholes that allow subsidized aluminum from non-market economies to enter duty-free [3] - Strengthening origin rules is recommended, ensuring that products containing aluminum from China and other non-market economies do not benefit from trade agreement advantages [3][4] Additional Measures - The association advocates for the free flow of scrap aluminum within North America while preventing its diversion to non-market economies like China, as scrap is crucial for new capacity [4] - It urges the government to utilize Section 232 authority to address unfair trade practices related to downstream products containing subsidized aluminum [4] - The overarching goal is to ensure that the renewed and strengthened USMCA creates a fair competitive environment for manufacturers and workers in North America [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 6%, reaching a new historical high of 31.44 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment and strong earnings forecasts in the aluminum industry [1] Company Summary - Citigroup has released a report indicating that the aluminum industry remains one of its top picks, expecting tight aluminum supply due to China's production capacity cap of 45.2 million tons and no explosive capacity increase in Indonesia [1] - The earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 2%, 5%, and 7% respectively, now projected at 24.4 billion, 27.9 billion, and 30.3 billion RMB, reflecting higher aluminum and alumina sales and increased average aluminum price predictions [1] - The company is focusing on maintaining a high dividend payout ratio and share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 6.7% for 2026 [1] Industry Summary - Citigroup anticipates that China Hongqiao will continue to benefit from sustained high aluminum margins, leading to a revaluation of the stock [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao has been raised from 25.2 HKD to 36 HKD, maintaining it as a preferred stock in the aluminum sector [1]