Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market outlook for June 2025, highlighting the current state of the real estate market and its implications for the bond market [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Current Market Conditions**: The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, making it difficult to find trend-based opportunities. Investors are advised to adopt a longer time horizon and actively implement the 97 strategy to gain capital gains and coupon income [1][3]. 2. **Real Estate Market Impact**: The ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities, is expected to support the bond market. The number of second-hand homes listed has decreased, and while restrictive policies may ease, transaction and new construction data remain weak, indicating macroeconomic pressure [1][4]. 3. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: Following an unexpected tightening of the funding environment in Q1 2025, the central bank is unlikely to further tighten monetary policy. Factors such as the real estate downturn and external pressures from the US-China tariff conflict contribute to this outlook [1][6]. 4. **Institutional Behavior**: There is a persistent marginal pressure on credit due to insufficient lending and a lack of non-standard investments. Institutions are inclined to eliminate yield convexity, making high-positioning strategies important [1][7]. 5. **Investment Strategy**: For June, while the bond market has a high probability of success, the potential returns are limited. Over the next two to three months, returns may be constrained, but a medium to long-term view supports maintaining a mid-to-high duration 97 strategy to achieve excess returns [1][8]. 6. **Changes in Institutional Behavior**: In H1 2025, institutions have adjusted their investment behaviors due to low interest rates and tightening liquidity. Funds and wealth management products have increased their allocation to 1-5 year credit bonds and secondary capital bonds [1][9][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Credit Spread Trends**: The credit spread in the credit bond market has been relatively high, with mainstream credit bond varieties showing a difference of 20 to 40 basis points compared to August 2024. The market has experienced three phases of credit spread movement this year [15]. 2. **Future Market Dynamics**: Looking ahead to H2 2025, factors such as changes in US-China relations, economic fundamentals, and potential policy announcements from the Political Bureau meeting in July could create volatility in the market [11][12]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are encouraged to focus on city investment bonds, particularly in provinces like Tianjin and Chongqing, and to explore opportunities in coal, steel, and state-owned enterprises in real estate through short-term coupon digging or increasing duration operations [2][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market outlook and investment strategies for the upcoming months.

固收 6 月债市展望 - 周观点 20250603 摘要 6 月债市面临跨半年资金考验，机构行为预计平稳，10 年期国债活跃券 交易区间或在 1.6%-1.7%。 二季度货币政策转向稳增长，5 月央行双降落地后市场表现波折，低位 窄幅震荡行情触发窗口难判。 基本面显示经济内生动能偏弱，若无新的稳增长政策，季节性因素将主 导，对债市构成潜在利好。 6 月流动性受政府债券发行和存单到期影响，资金面担忧增加，短期波 动难免，但央行维稳预期仍在。 信用债方面，短端利差压缩空间有限，三年期品种仍有压缩潜力，关注 隐含评级 2A 品种的配置机会。 地产债行业筑底，关注核心一线城市放松限购影响，推荐安全区间央国 企地产债和高性价比区间 2A/2A+标的。 转债市场经历 V 型反转，估值维持中高位，权益市场突破趋势不明，未 来交易策略应以个券挖掘和波段操作为主。 Q&A 2025 年 6 月份债券市场的整体展望是什么？ 2025 年 6 月份的债券市场预计将延续 5 月以来的震荡走势。主要原因在于关 税谈判的不确定性和基本面数据的变数较大，难以对市场形成明确指引。货币 政策方面，5 月份总量政策已落地，6 月份将经历跨半年的 ...

周二（6月3日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨1.39个基点，报4.4537%，日内交投于 4.4043%-4.4716%区间，整体呈现出V形反转，北京时间22:00发布美联储青睐的职位空缺就业指标后持 续反弹。 两年期美债收益率涨1.45个基点，报3.9511%，日内交投于3.9098%-3.9696%区间，职位空缺数据发布后 出现一波显著的拉升。 ...

Group 1 - The German 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 2.525%, trading within a range of 2.485%-2.528% during the day [1] - The 2-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 1.786%, with a trading range of 1.766%-1.789% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.017%, showing a similar trend to the 10-year bond yield [1] Group 2 - The 2/10-year German bond yield spread increased by 0.368 basis points to +73.641 basis points, mirroring the trends of medium to long-term German bond yields [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell by 2.9 basis points to 4.638%, experiencing a low of 4.599% earlier in the day [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the bid-to-cover ratio for the U.S. 6-week Treasury auction as of June 3 was 3.44, compared to a previous value of 3 [1]

浙江发行首批存量房专项债 未来或迎规模扩容 金十数据6月3日讯，近日，浙江省成功发行了首批存量房专项债，引起市场关注。根据浙江省财政厅发 布的《2025年浙江省政府专项债券（十三至二十期）信息披露文件》，此次专项债券的发行规模为 552.67亿元，其中16.53亿元专项用于收购存量商品房。 业内人士称，此次专项债中用于收购存量商品 房的部分仅占总规模的3%，但这一举措具有显著的创新性和重要的政策导向作用。随着相关项目运作 模式的不断完善，未来可能会进一步提高专项债券在该领域的配置比例。 展望未来，市场机构认为， 二季度可能会成为地方债集中发行的高峰期，需警惕在"自审自发"等政策推动下，地方债发行速度加快 可能带来的超预期影响。 （第一财经） ...

Group 1 - The OECD has significantly downgraded the US economic growth forecast for this year and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, citing factors such as tariff policy impacts, rising economic policy uncertainty, slowing net immigration, and a shrinking labor force [3] - The OECD report indicates that the global economic outlook is becoming increasingly challenging, with rising trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty potentially having a negative impact on economic growth [3] - The inflation outlook shows a notable difference between the US and other major economies, with the US inflation rate expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.2%, while G20 countries' inflation is projected to decrease to 3.6% [3][4] Group 2 - The Dallas Fed President stated that the Fed is closely monitoring various data due to a stable labor market and inflation slightly above target, indicating potential future actions [4] - The US manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 48.5 in May, with the supplier delivery index rising to its highest level since 2022, indicating slowed delivery speeds [4] - In the Eurozone, inflation dropped to 1.9% in May, below the ECB's 2% target, leading to a decline in European bond yields [4][5] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 2-year yield slightly rising to 0.758% [7] - The US Treasury plans to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $60 billion [8]

执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市"每调买机"情绪回归 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：6 月债市高胜率+低赔率的组合延续 当前 10Y 国债收益率在 1.65%至 1.70%附近持续震荡超一月，5 月利率 弱、信用强，存单在 1.70%附近震荡，短期债市多空交织。第一，在关税反复 扰动背景下，央行的主要目标由防空转、稳汇率切换至稳增长，双降以及一揽 子货币政策带动广谱利率下行，债牛环境不变；第二，但从短期来看，6 月资 金面易受扰动，存单大额到期+季末流动性冲击+供给高峰，在此背景下央行 对于资金面的话语权已经提升，我们预计一季度的情形大概率不会重演，资金 ...

2025 年 06 月 03 日 6 月地方债发行计划已披露 8612 亿元，新增专 项债占半数 —固定收益月报 投资要点 截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日，6 月地方债发行已披露计划如下： 各省、计划单列市披露发行计划总计 8612 亿元，其中新增一 般债、再融资一般债、新增专项债、再融资专项债占比分别 为 9%（742 亿元）、14%（1164 亿元）、50%（4340 亿元）、 21%（1839 亿元）。 分地区来看，6 月地方债发行计划从高到低分别为：北京市 1232 亿元、浙江省 958 亿元、云南省 688 亿元、山东省 606 亿元、安徽省 561 亿元、福建省 522 亿元、湖北省 432 亿 元、四川省 403 亿元、黑龙江省 332 亿元、贵州省 322 亿 元、广东省 300 亿元、重庆市 278 亿元、辽宁省 274 亿元、 陕西省 237 亿元、甘肃省 228 亿元、海南省 221 亿元、吉林 省 199 亿元、内蒙古 176 亿元、广西 157 亿元、青海省 136 亿元、河北省 103 亿元、新疆 97 亿元、厦门市 69 亿元、山 西省 45 亿元、宁夏 36 亿元。 6 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...