2026.01. 05 本文字数：1851，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 委内瑞拉政局动荡下，全球多个市场已作出反应。 油价方面，5日亚太市场转跌为涨。不过，市场普遍预计，委内瑞拉局势不会改变油价下跌趋势。黄 金作为避险资产的属性再次得到凸显，带领一众贵金属继续上涨。此外，加密货币市场走势备受关 注。 图源：新华社 油市风险有限 随着交易员消化委内瑞拉政局变化及其对该国石油业的影响，5日亚太交易时段，油价抹去此前跌 幅，转为小幅走高，布伦特原油期货上涨0.3%，至60.92美元/桶，WTI原油期货也上涨0.2%，至 57.43美元/桶。 但原油涨幅仍会因供应过剩的担忧而受限。在全球石油供应充足的背景下，分析师普遍预计，即使委 内瑞拉原油出口再受干扰，对油价也不会产生即刻影响。 国际能源署（IEA）预计，2026年全球石油供应将超过需求380万桶/日，创下历史性的供应过剩纪 录。咨询机构A/S Global Risk Management的首席分析师拉斯姆森（Arne Lohman Rasmussen）称，这种大规模的供应冗余为市场提供了强大的缓冲垫。即便委内瑞拉局势动荡，该 国当前约100万 ...

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with Shanghai aluminum leading at a rise of 3.98%, reaching a peak of 23,780 yuan/ton, a new high since March 2022 [1] - Shanghai copper, zinc, and tin also saw gains exceeding 2%, with copper up 2.68%, zinc up 2.25%, and tin up 2.45% [1] - Other metals had increases of less than 1%, while alumina rose by 0.14% and casting aluminum surged by 4.14%, hitting a historical high of 22,695 yuan/ton since its listing [1] - Lithium carbonate increased by 7.74%, and polysilicon rose by 2.31%, while industrial silicon fell by 1.24% [1] - In the black metal sector, iron ore was the only metal to rise, up 0.95%, while hot-rolled and rebar both fell over 0.7% [1] - As of 15:04, foreign base metals were generally up, with London nickel stable at $16,820/ton, and tin rising by 5.22% and copper by 3.39% [1] - Precious metals also saw gains, with COMEX gold up 2.3% and silver up 6%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 1.4% and 1.16% respectively [1][2] Macro Environment - The Chinese Commodity Price Index rose for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 117.9 points in December 2025, a 3.2% increase from the previous month, indicating improved market conditions [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining a stable monetary policy [7] - The US dollar index increased by 0.22% to 98.66, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [8]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 3.49% on January 5, with Hunan Silver leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up 2.24% [1] - Hunan Silver's stock price rose by 9.97% to 7.61, with a trading volume of 3.7486 million shares and a transaction value of 2.808 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 514 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 248 million yuan [1] - Hunan Silver had a main fund net inflow of 355 million yuan, accounting for 12.66% of its total trading [2] - Shandong Gold experienced a main fund net inflow of 226 million yuan, representing 9.89% of its total trading [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20260105, the model recommends allocating sectors such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, and aviation airports. The strategy will newly hold products like Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, Rare Metals ETF, and continue to hold products like Gold Stocks ETF [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Update - Multiple ETFs are adjusted in the portfolio, including Aerospace ETF, Satellite Industry ETF, Tourism ETF, etc. [3] Performance Tracking - From 20251229 - 20251231, the strategy's cumulative net return is about -1.44%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about -0.80%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the strategy's out - of - sample cumulative return is about 30.30%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF is about 7.80% [3] ETFs' Information - Information on ETFs' market value, holding status, heavy - held Shenwan industries and weights, and timing signals are provided [3] ETFs' Adjustment in the Recent Week - Some ETFs are调出, and the future - week strategy recommends new holdings and continued holdings [3][12]

摘要2026年1月5日，今日西部黄金（601069）开盘报27.20元，截至收盘，西部黄金报收于28.29元，上 涨6.03%，最高28.40元，最低27.20元，成交量32.12万手，成交额8.95亿元，换手率3.62%。 2026年1月5日，今日西部黄金开盘报27.20元，截至收盘，西部黄金报收于28.29元，上涨6.03%，最高 28.40元，最低27.20元，成交量32.12万手，成交额 8.95亿元，换手率3.62%。 1月5日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出3418.22万元，占总成交额3.82%，游资资金净流出 2560.56万元，占总成交额2.86%，散户资金净流入5978.78万元，占总成交额6.68%。 融资融券数据显示，12月31日西部黄金融资买入3029.47万元，融资偿还4154.36万元，融资净偿还 1124.89万元，融资余额为4.01亿元。融券方面，融券卖出0.17万股，融券偿还0.68万股，融券净偿还 0.51万股，融券余量为5.38万股。 所属板块表现：贵金属3.87%、新疆板块1.34%、2025中报预增1.87%、标准普尔1.35%、富时罗素 1.62%。 西部黄金股 ...

Market Performance - On the first trading day of 2026, the A-share market experienced a "good start," with sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, insurance, military industry, and precious metals performing well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38%, closing at 4023.42 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,675 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5,016 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Competition Overview - The 81st session of the "Digging Gold" competition, organized by the Daily Economic News App, began on January 5, with participants registering from January 1 to January 16. The competition simulates stock trading with a simulated capital of 500,000 yuan, and cash rewards are given for positive returns at the end of each session [1][3]. Rewards Structure - The pre-tax cash rewards for each session are as follows: 688 yuan for the 1st place, 188 yuan for the 2nd to 4th places, 88 yuan for the 5th to 10th places, and the remaining positive return participants share a total of 500 yuan. The monthly leaderboard winner receives 888 yuan for 1st place, with decreasing amounts for subsequent ranks [3]. Market Insights - Some experienced participants believe that the Shanghai Composite Index's significant volume breakout on Monday indicates the onset of a new upward trend [4]. Additionally, there is optimism regarding sectors such as lithium carbonate, precious metals, and vanadium battery storage due to rising prices [6]. Additional Resources - Participants who successfully register for the "Digging Gold" competition will gain free access to the "Fire Line Quick Review" for six trading days, which includes insights on market trends, investment logic, and company analysis. Notably, since April 2025, sectors like the Nvidia supply chain, electronic cloth, rare earths, tungsten mines, and silver have shown significant growth, with some companies doubling their stock prices [6].

1月5日，A股市场高开高走迎来2026年开门红，创业板指领涨，沪指重回4000点上方。截至收盘，沪指涨1.38%，录得十二连阳，深成指涨2.24%，创业板 指涨2.85%。全市场成交额高达2.57万亿，较上一个交易日放量5015亿，近4200只个股上涨，其中127只个股涨停。 消息面上，据智通财经报道，马斯克近日在社交媒体上表示，其脑机接口公司Neuralink将于2026年开始对脑机接口设备进行"大规模生产"。 21世纪经济报道记者获悉，去年年初，国家医保局发布对脑机接口康复收费的指导意见，直接推动了脑机接口产业快速发展。目前已有约11个省市出台脑 机接口相关收费标准，且不少公司也透露最新商业化进展。 午后贵金属板块持续走强，兴业银锡封涨停，此前湖南白银涨停，西部黄金、山东黄金等涨幅靠前。消息面上，贵金属市场受突发地缘政治事件催化，现 货白银日内一度涨超5%，站上75美元大关，此外现货黄金日内涨超2%，收复4400美元关口。 板块方面，脑机接口概念全天领涨，三十余只成分股涨停。保险板块爆发，新华保险、中国太保大涨续创历史新高。商业航天概念反复活跃，雷科防务4 连板，中国卫通5天3板。半导体产业链走强，亚翔集 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals are leading the market gains, with gold's safe-haven attributes highlighted amid the political turmoil in Venezuela [1][4] - Oil prices in the Asia-Pacific market have turned from a decline to a slight increase, with Brent crude futures rising by 0.3% to $60.92 per barrel and WTI crude futures up by 0.2% to $57.43 per barrel [3] - Analysts expect that even if Venezuela's oil exports are disrupted, it will not have an immediate impact on oil prices due to a globally sufficient oil supply [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026, marking a historic oversupply record [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecast for Brent crude at an average of $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel for 2026, indicating limited risk from the Venezuelan situation [4][5] - RBC Capital Markets suggests that a complete lifting of sanctions on Venezuela could release hundreds of thousands of barrels per day within 12 months under an orderly transition [5] Group 3 - Gold prices have risen by 1.4% to $4,393.64 per ounce, with silver up by 3.4% to $75.28 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties [5] - UBS highlights that gold remains an attractive asset and a crucial risk-hedging tool, with expectations of steady demand growth due to declining real interest rates and rising global economic uncertainties [5][6] - UBS has raised its target price for gold to $5,000 per ounce by March 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5,400 per ounce if political or financial risks escalate [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for 12 consecutive days, closing above 4000 points at 4023.42, up 1.38% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24% to 13828.63, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.85% to 3294.55 [1][2] - Total market turnover reached 2.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 501.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with nearly 4200 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Brain-Computer Interface Sector - The brain-computer interface sector experienced a surge, with over 30 stocks hitting the daily limit, driven by Elon Musk's announcement of large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices by Neuralink in 2026 [4] - Notable stocks include: - BeiYikang: +29.98% [5] - DaoShi Technology: +20.01% [5] - Sanbo Brain Science: +20.01% [5] - MeiHao Medical: +20.00% [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector saw significant gains, with New China Life Insurance rising over 8% and China Pacific Insurance increasing by 7.52% [7] - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of 57.629 billion yuan for the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [6] Storage Chip Sector - The storage chip sector also performed well, with stocks like Yunhan Chip City and Puran Shares hitting the daily limit, and Zhongwei Company rising over 14% [8] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector rebounded, with stocks such as Tom Cat rising over 16% and Sanqi Interactive Entertainment hitting the daily limit [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw gains, with Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit and Western Gold rising over 6% [10] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector experienced a broad increase, with stocks like GuanHao Biological hitting the daily limit [11] - In 2025, 76 innovative drugs were approved for market, setting a historical record, with total licensing transactions exceeding 130 billion USD [11] Hainan Free Trade Zone Sector - The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector faced a collective adjustment, with Hainan Development hitting the daily limit down and Haiqi Group falling over 8% [13] Transportation and Tourism Sector - The transportation and tourism sectors showed weakness, with Hainan Airport down 4.69% and various tourism stocks declining [15][14] Market Outlook - Looking ahead, the market may continue to exhibit structural trends, supported by positive investor sentiment from the strengthening of the Hong Kong market and the renminbi exchange rate [18] - The upcoming Spring Festival may trigger an early market rally, with a focus on technology leaders and cyclical sectors benefiting from price recovery expectations [18]

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 华西证券指出，地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格。本周美军对委内瑞拉的打击引发避险情 绪，短期金价波动有限，但需警惕局势升级风险。长期来看，全球"去美元化"趋势加速，央行和投资者 持续购金，黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向。美国债务总额突破38.5万亿美元，财政赤字高企， 降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。白银方面，ETF资金强劲流 入，全球现货库存紧张，甚至出现交割困难，尽管需求回落，但供应端缺口突出，预计未来几年供需缺 口将持续扩大。宽松周期下工业复苏需求使得白银弹性高于黄金，看好未来白银价格。基本金属方面， 铜作为能源转型关键金属，供给端全球主要矿山事故频发，预计2025Q4供给减少20万吨产量，宏观环 境支撑铜价。铝价方面，铜铝比失调，国内电解铝供给刚性，AI领域爆发式增长占据电力优先级，供 应端扰动待落地，看好铝价补涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...