Core Insights - Ghana's trade with Europe is more extensive than its trade with neighboring African countries, raising questions about structural bottlenecks that limit intra-African trade [1][2] - The European Union remains one of Ghana's largest trading partners, with significant exports including cocoa, gold, oil, and processed agricultural products, while imports consist of machinery, pharmaceuticals, and manufactured goods [1] - In 2022, the top five export destinations for Ghana were Switzerland and Liechtenstein, China, the United States, the UAE, and India, with Europe and Asia accounting for approximately 77% of Ghana's total imports, while imports from Africa only made up 11% [1] - High transportation costs, limited railway connections, and inefficient ports and border crossings are key factors restricting intra-African trade, making it often cheaper and faster for Ghanaian exporters to ship goods to Rotterdam or Antwerp than to nearby African markets [1] - Ghana's export structure is heavily reliant on primary products, with gold accounting for 38% of total exports, mineral fuels and oils at 31%, and cocoa at 12%, leading to limited opportunities for complementary trade among African nations unless value addition is increased [2] - Analysts believe that the trade gap between Ghana and Europe versus Africa may gradually narrow with the ongoing development of the African Continental Free Trade Area, contingent on sustained policy reforms, infrastructure investment, and active private sector participation [2]

Core Insights - The WASDE report released on Monday was unexpected and continues to impact the grain futures market, leading to a decline in prices [1] - The USDA did not lower the crop yield outlook for 2025 as anticipated, indicating that the amount of grain stored in farmers' silos exceeded expectations [1] - Analysts noted that the report was a triple negative for corn, soybeans, and wheat, with expectations of a potential rebound in futures prices not yet materializing [1] Grain Futures Market - The most actively traded corn futures fell by 0.8%, soybean futures decreased by 0.5%, and wheat futures dropped by 0.3% following the report [1] - Naomi Blohm from Total Farm Marketing described the report's impact as a significant negative for the grain market [1]

Core Insights - The overall price of 62 consumer goods in Binzhou, Shandong Province remained stable in December, with 23 items increasing, 28 remaining unchanged, and 11 decreasing compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - Wheat prices remained stable at an average of 1.26 yuan per jin, up 3.27% year-on-year, while corn prices increased to 1.11 yuan per jin, up 1.55% month-on-month and 10.32% year-on-year [1] - The prices of staple oils remained stable, with average prices for various types of flour and rice holding steady [1] Group 2: Meat Prices - Pork prices decreased, with retail prices for lean pork at 14.56 yuan per jin, down 1.94% month-on-month and 14.56% year-on-year; prices for other pork cuts also saw declines [2] - Beef and lamb prices remained stable month-on-month, with beef at 39.2 yuan per jin and lamb at 41.79 yuan per jin, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.64% and 5.25% respectively [2] Group 3: Egg and Vegetable Prices - Egg prices increased to 3.45 yuan per jin, up 4.87% month-on-month but down 30.15% year-on-year [3] - Vegetable prices saw a slight increase, with an average price of 3.94 yuan per jin, up 3.32% month-on-month and 17.81% year-on-year; specific vegetables like cabbage and eggplant experienced significant price hikes [3] Group 4: Fruit Prices - Fruit prices predominantly increased, with watermelon and tangerine prices rising by 14.35% and 15.34% month-on-month respectively; other fruits like apples and bananas remained stable [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Helping Market - Galloping into Spring" consumer assistance themed market was launched in Guangzhou, aiming to support local farmers and promote their products while enhancing community engagement [2][3][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The market took place on January 13 at the North Square of the 289 Art Park in Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, organized by the Southern Rural Newspaper and the Guangdong Regional Collaborative Consumer Assistance Product Trading Center [2][3]. - The event attracted a large number of local residents, providing a platform for purchasing various agricultural products and engaging in interactive activities [3][4]. Group 2: Product Offerings - The market featured a wide array of agricultural specialty products from various provinces, including Guangdong, Guizhou, Fujian, Yunnan, and Jilin, showcasing items such as dried goods, local cured meats, grains, and tea gift boxes [5][7][21]. - Notable products included the "Guangdong Three Treasures Gift Box," "Liupanshui Mushrooms," and "Hakka Daughter Wine," which drew interest from attendees [11][12][13]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The market facilitated a unique shopping experience where consumers could contribute to charity through their purchases, embodying the concept of "buying to help" [27][28]. - Interactive activities, such as the "Circle Game" and "Blind Box Lottery," enhanced the festive atmosphere and encouraged participation, with prizes including local specialty snacks and creative household items [22][24][25][26]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The event served as a practical implementation of consumer assistance, helping to raise awareness of the quality of supporting products while establishing direct sales channels for farmers [28][29]. - The Guangdong Regional Collaborative Consumer Assistance Product Trading Center aims to integrate consumer assistance into regular activities, leveraging media partnerships to continuously promote love and warmth within the community [36][37].

12道贵州风物亮 相大湾区，总台 文创联名礼盒成 焦点_南方+_南 方plus 岁末年味渐浓， 正值礼赠亲友、 传递祝福的黄金 时段。1月13 日，"帮扶市集 策马迎春"主题 活动在广州南方 报社289艺术园 区热闹开市，其 中，中央广播电 视总台文创联 名"新春贵礼"礼 盒亮相现场，12 道贵州特色风物 以"产品+文化 +品鉴"创新模 式，激活大湾区 消费热情，助 推"贵品入湾" 。 中央广播电视总台文创联名"新春贵礼"礼盒亮相"帮扶市集 策马迎春"主题活动 据介绍，该礼盒 由贵州省农业农 村厅指导，贵州 电商云联合12个 农产品区域公用 品牌主体匠心打 造，是中央广播 电视总台"大春 晚季"版权文创 合作的重要成 果，以"大春晚 季"IP为文化纽 带，实现总台文 创优势资源与贵 州山地特色农产 品的深度融合。 "看到这么喜庆 的设计，很好 看，很有年 味。"一名来自 越秀区退休教师 陈女士连连称 赞，她认为，送 亲朋好友，既喜 庆又体面。据了 解，这款礼盒在 设计上兼具文化 内涵与地域辨识 度。礼盒左上角 印刻中央广播电 视总台与总台文 创联合标识，右 上角标注马年总 台春节联欢晚会 主标识，中部以 喜庆 ...

Core Insights - The market for essential goods in Qingdao is stable, with sufficient reserves and no significant price fluctuations reported [1] Price Monitoring Summary - Grain and oil prices remain stable, with average retail prices for long-grain rice at 3.25 yuan per 500 grams, special flour at 2.37 yuan, and peanut oil (5-liter) at 133.20 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, with lean pork at 14.69 yuan, up by 0.27% from the previous day; prices for fatty pork remain at 14.25 yuan, while lamb and beef prices are stable at 41.40 yuan and 37.59 yuan respectively [1] - Egg prices have risen, with the average price now at 3.66 yuan, reflecting a 0.27% increase from the previous day [1] - Vegetable prices have increased, with wholesale prices at 2.56 yuan, up by 0.39% from the previous day; however, the transaction volume in wholesale markets has decreased by 11.76% [1] - Seafood prices are stable, with mackerel at 11 yuan, oysters at 7.5 yuan, average prices for ribbon fish at 15 yuan, and shrimp at 34 yuan, all remaining unchanged from the previous day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. aim to directly target Iran while also delivering precise strikes against China and Russia, attempting to force global alignment through trade tariffs [1] Trade Data Summary - In 2024, trade between China and Iran is projected to reach $13.37 billion, with China exporting $8.93 billion in essential goods and importing $4.44 billion primarily in energy and minerals [3] - Non-oil trade between China and Iran has also been significant, exceeding $30.4 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, with China being Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for over 30% of its total exports [3] - The trade between Russia and Iran is expected to reach $4.8 billion in 2024, marking a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with an additional 8% growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] Impact on China - The 25% tariff will primarily impact China's exports to the U.S., which are mainly machinery and electrical products with an average profit margin of less than 5%, leading to increased export costs [5] - However, China has already initiated currency settlement and "oil-for-infrastructure" models with Iran, mitigating risks associated with dollar transactions [5] - The trade volume between China and Iran represents only 2% of China's total trade with the U.S., allowing China to adjust its supply chain and expand into ASEAN markets to offset potential losses [5] Impact on Russia - The sanctions may accelerate cooperation between Russia and Iran, as their trade is primarily settled in rubles and rials, minimizing the impact of the U.S. dollar system [7] - Both countries are working towards a free trade agreement within the Eurasian Economic Union, aiming to increase their trade volume to $10 billion [7] - The sanctions will not disrupt the energy complementarity between Russia and Iran, as Russia can leverage Iran to access Middle Eastern energy routes while providing nuclear technology and military support to Iran [7] Consequences of U.S. Actions - The sanctions are likely to accelerate the de-dollarization process, with 95% of trade between China and Russia already settled in local currencies, making barter trade and local currency settlements more common among the three countries [7] - The unilateral sanctions may undermine U.S. international credibility, as many countries are likely to reject alignment with U.S. policies, with a Pew survey indicating that over half of the populations in 19 countries lack confidence in U.S. handling of international affairs [7] - The sanctions could lead to increased global oil prices, as Iran exports 1.4 million barrels of oil daily and Russia exports 7.4 million barrels, potentially disrupting global energy supply and exacerbating inflation in the U.S. [9]

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 本次 USDA 双报告偏空，预计豆价暂时低位运行。1 月 USDA 供需报告上调美豆期末库存，因为供应微 增、需求下降。供应端的问题在于美豆单产维持高预估、未出现超预期下调。需求端的问题在于出口下调 数量较多，内需微增无法抵消出口调降的影响。由于供应端短期不再调整，可关注美豆需求调整：出口需 求首当其冲、中方采购仍是关键点。截至目前，中方采购美豆节奏正常、且低价美豆仍有吸引力，所以美 豆出口存在好于预期可能性。我们对于美豆盘面价格并不过分悲观，预计暂时保持低位运行，等待新的基 本面消息指引。巴西方面，虽然产量上调、但出口和内需同步上调，期末库存变化不大、平衡表维持中性 状态，预计巴西升贴水有支撑（巴西大豆争夺美豆出口市场，巴西升贴水和美豆盘面价格可能有"跷跷板 效应"）。从进口成本主要项目来看，美豆盘面价格暂无上行驱动、保持低位运行，但巴西升贴水或有支 撑、因争夺美豆出口市场，所以国内豆粕价格预计暂时低位运行，等待新的驱动。后期关注：巴西收获、 美豆出口、南美产区天气。（个人观点，仅供参考，上述内容在任何情况下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - **Good Auction Results**: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - **"Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - **Increase in Market Purchase Price**: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - **Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price**: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - **Industrial Policy**: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - **Trade Policy**: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - **Reserve Policy**: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, and provides corresponding market analysis, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each market [1][2][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Monday, precious metal prices continued to rise, with London gold reaching $4,600 per ounce. The fundamentals are affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes. It is recommended to go long on gold [1] - **Silver**: The silver price reached $85 per ounce. The speculation sentiment is strong, and the overall volatility increases. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price continued to strengthen. The supply of copper mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum rose by 1.01% to 24,575 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly rising. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose by 0.81% to 2,866 yuan per ton. The market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [2] - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc price is driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamentals are not strong. The lead market shows a weak reality, and it is recommended to wait and see for zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - **Silicon**: The silicon price fluctuates. The supply is affected by production reduction, and the demand in some industries is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it is advisable to go short lightly on rallies [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand in some industries is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be supported and is likely to rise rather than fall [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price fell. The market is affected by regulatory factors, and the supply is expected to decrease. The demand in some downstream industries is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [3] - **Tin**: The tin price continued to strengthen. The supply of tin mines remains tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar price rose slightly. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 2605 contract [5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fell slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price rose slightly. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The global soybean supply is expected to be loose. The US soybean is weak, and the domestic far - month contract is under pressure. The near - month contract depends on the game between the throwing volume and customs clearance [7] - **Corn**: The corn futures price is strong, and the spot price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price rose. The supply is in a seasonal decline, and the demand is increasing. The inventory has risen. The oils and fats market is expected to be in a strong shock, and the long - term weak seasonal decline cycle can be traded [7] - **Sugar**: The sugar price fell. The international sugar price is under pressure from Indian production. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [7] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose slightly. The international cotton supply and demand are changing, and the domestic cotton price is rising. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan per ton [7] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price fell, and the spot price is stable. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Hogs**: The hog futures price fell, and the spot price rose in some areas. The supply pressure is not significant in the short term, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Apples**: The apple price fell. The total output is low, and the inventory is low, but the sales pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [8] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is slowing down, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to buy on dips in the medium term [8] - **PVC**: The PVC price fell and then rebounded. The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread of short - selling the 05 contract and long - buying the 09 contract [8] - **PTA**: The PX and PTA supply are high, and the demand is weak. The PX price is expected to be strong in the medium term, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to buy the 05 contract for processing fees [9] - **Rubber**: The rubber price rose. The raw material price is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is advisable to hold short - term short positions cautiously [9] - **Glass**: The glass price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct a long - glass and short - soda ash strategy [9] - **PP**: The PP price rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is rising. It is expected to be in a strong shock in the short term and advisable to go short on rallies in the medium term [9] - **MEG**: The MEG supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [10] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short the oil as a bearish allocation and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [10] - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the styrene supply and demand are weakening. It is expected to be in a shock in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on styrene or conduct a pure benzene reverse spread in the second quarter [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [10]