区中大猪看弱情绪较浓，中大猪价格震荡下行，低价 11.8 元/公斤，高价 13.0 元 /公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 13.02 元/公斤 ，较昨日价 格上涨 0.44 元/公斤，与赣桂湘均价价差 0.66 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 12.40-12.90 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌价 270 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.78 元/公斤。近期生猪主力 2603 合约以小阳线收盘， 期价区间随之上移。技术上，短期关注生猪 3 月合约底部表现，远期合约轻仓长 线多头参与。 二、市场信息 1. 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 13.6 万吨大豆，对未知目的地出口销售 23.1 万吨大豆，均于 2025/2026 年度交付。 2. 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（ANEC）表示，巴西 12 月大豆出口量预计为 302 万吨，之前一周预计为 357 万吨。 农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 从业资格证号：F0232181 投资咨询证号：Z000183 时间：2025.12.26 农产品团队： 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 NFR 2026 商品年度报告 双粕 主产国博弈年 双粕行情不确定性增强 展望 2026年，我们认为—— 在全球气候基本稳定以及全球大豆供应形势初步预期尚可的情况下，2026 年国内豆粕预计更多呈现阶段性行情机会，行情表现也会较2025年将更加复杂 多变。全球大豆供应状态有望在美国和巴西间形成博弈，博弈中国际大豆及国 内豆粕价格不确定性增强。但如果按照11月中国对美豆采购协议以及13%的关税， 国内豆粕2025年会面临成本抬升。关注2026年美豆种植面积以及中美采购协议 的稳定性。关注阶段性和成本下的逢低看多机会。 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业 务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 菜粕市场 受贸易政策影响，菜粕呈现内紧外松，内强外弱的表现。国际市场方面， 2025/26年度全球菜籽产量恢复性增加，利空国际菜系价格。强弱多重因素影响 下，202 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Q3 US GDP exceeded expectations with a 4.3% growth, and the job market showed resilience, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but November economic data indicated weak domestic demand, still needing policy support. Attention should be paid to domestic PMI data and Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair [2]. - The breakthrough of the RMB against the US dollar at the 7.00 mark may end the low - volatility forex market. The RMB is likely to end the year stably, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Short - term stock indices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed. Bonds are not pessimistic in the medium - term. The container shipping European line futures are expected to be volatile, with the near - term contract range - bound and the far - term contract under pressure [6][8][11]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are recommended to be held lightly during the holiday. Gold and silver are expected to be weak in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper is recommended to be observed more and traded less before the holiday. Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, while alumina and cast aluminum alloy have their own characteristics [15][18][21]. - Zinc has limited upside space. Nickel - stainless steel is driven by supply reduction expectations and demand improvement, but it is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday. Tin has rebounded from oversold conditions and is expected to be volatile. Carbonate lithium has long - term value support and is recommended to be bought on dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are gradually rising, and long positions can be considered on dips [25][26][29]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. Steel products are expected to be range - bound, with iron ore oscillating, coking coal and coke facing uncertain supply, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese being volatile and bullish in the short - term [34][36][41]. - Pulp and offset paper can be observed first, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly. Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level. LPG is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term. PTA - PX has a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. MEG - bottle chips are under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized. Methanol can be bought at a low level [45][49][58]. - PP and PE are expected to be bottom - oscillating. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be bullish and oscillating. Fuel oil has weak cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil has stable cracking. Urea can be bought in the far - month contract. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are affected by supply and demand and market sentiment [63][66][73]. - Logs can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used. Propylene is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [79][80]. - For agricultural products, pigs' long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail. Oilseeds are strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. Oils are widely oscillating under supply pressure. Cotton may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar maintains a balance. Eggs are generally bearish. Apples are expected to be oscillating. Red dates are expected to be range - bound at a low level [84][85][90] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Central rural work conference focuses on agricultural technology; 2026 national subsidy plan is released; Fed meeting minutes show divided views on rate cuts; Trump may sue the current Fed chair and will announce the next nominee in January [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US economy is strong, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but domestic demand is weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB broke through the 7.00 mark, and it is expected to end the year stably. Attention should be paid to exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices were volatile and bullish last trading day. Policy signals are positive, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed [6][7]. - **Bonds**: The bond market was range - bound on Tuesday. The mid - term view on bonds is not pessimistic, and long positions can be held during the holiday [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures market closed down yesterday. The market is concerned about the sustainability of price increases, and the near - term contract is range - bound while the far - term contract is under pressure [9][11]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Platinum rose and palladium oscillated last night. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to hold lightly during the holiday [14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: Gold oscillated and silver rose. The short - term view is weak, and the long - term view is bullish. It is recommended to reduce long positions or stay out of the market during the holiday [16][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose last night. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe more and trade less before the holiday [19][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, alumina is expected to be range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the impact of related varieties [22][23]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were bullish last trading day. The upside space is limited, and it is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short - term [25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose yesterday. The supply is expected to shrink in 2026, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday [25][26]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded from oversold conditions last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rose yesterday. The long - term value is supported, and it is recommended to buy on dips [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose yesterday. The industrial silicon market is in a supply - demand weak state, and polysilicon prices are showing signs of warming. Long positions can be considered on dips [30][32]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [33][34]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products oscillated yesterday. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are expected to be range - bound [35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices followed other metals up and down. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices are expected to be range - bound [37][38]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coal and coke prices opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are facing uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery in January [39][40]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Ferroalloys were bullish and oscillating yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited [41][42]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures rebounded yesterday, and offset paper futures rose. The market is still neutral, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly [44][46]. - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures closed down yesterday. OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level [47][49]. - **LPG**: LPG prices rose yesterday. It is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term [50][51]. - **PTA - PX**: PX supply is expected to remain high, and PTA supply is uncertain. PTA processing fees are expected to rise, but the space is limited. PX is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: MEG supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. It is under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized [56][58]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose sharply. It is recommended to buy at a low level [59][60]. - **PP**: PP prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the scale of plant maintenance in January [61][63]. - **PE**: PE prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with supply pressure relieved and demand weakening [64][66]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating, but high - buying is not recommended [67][69]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices closed at 2473 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is abundant, and the cracking is weak [70]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at 2977 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is improving, and the cracking is stable [71][72]. - **Urea**: Urea prices closed at 1756 yesterday. It is recommended to buy in the far - month contract [72][73]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda prices rose yesterday. Soda ash is affected by new capacity and demand; glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory; caustic soda is affected by market sentiment and downstream demand [73][76]. - **Logs**: Log prices closed at 776 yesterday. It can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used [77][79]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices rose yesterday. The long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The external market was weak, and the domestic near - month market was strong. It is recommended to try a 3 - 5 positive spread lightly [85][86]. - **Oils**: International oils are under supply pressure, and domestic oils are oscillating. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong, and soybean oil is weak [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Cotton futures prices were mixed. The short - term may correct, and the long - term may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [89][90]. - **Sugar**: Sugar futures prices were mixed. The short - term upward pressure is increasing [91][93]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices fell yesterday. It is generally bearish in the long - term, and long positions can be held lightly for a rebound [94]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be oscillating, and long positions can be bought on dips [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: Red date futures prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [97][98].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Market trends vary across different sectors. For example, in the stock market, A - shares showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index up. In the futures market, different commodities have different trends, such as some being in a bearish trend, some in a bullish trend, and some in a volatile state [11]. - Policy factors have a significant impact on various industries. For instance, the 2026 national subsidy policy has been adjusted, and the real - estate value - added tax policy has changed, which will affect related industries [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - The 2026 national subsidy program is officially released, with 62.5 billion yuan in the first - batch funds for consumer goods trade - ins. The subsidy objects and ranges are adjusted, and the subsidy ratio and upper limit for some products are changed [6]. - The VAT collection rate for personal housing sales is adjusted. For housing sold within 2 years of purchase, the VAT rate is reduced from 5% to 3%, and housing sold after 2 years is exempt from VAT [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasizes the importance of "Three Rural Issues" in 2026 and the need to promote rural revitalization and food production [7]. - The Ministry of Education plans to introduce policies for AI education and application in the next year [7]. - The "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise of the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA conducts various military drills [7]. - The 2025 digital economy in China is expected to reach 49 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35% of GDP, with an increase in the proportion of the core digital economy industries [7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the innovation and development of the national new - type Internet exchange center [8]. - The secondary - market premium of Pop Mart's "Labubu" IP has ended, and resale profits have disappeared [8]. - The Fed's December meeting minutes show that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates, but there were significant differences among officials [8]. - India's GDP has reached 4.18 trillion US dollars, becoming the world's fourth - largest economy, and is expected to reach 7.3 trillion US dollars by 2030 [9]. - The Bank of Korea modifies the currency and liquidity statistics, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in October drops from 8.7% to 5.2% under the new standard [9]. - OPEC + is expected to adhere to the plan to suspend production increases [9]. - Indonesia plans to cut production in 2026 to better match supply and demand [9]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The market's upward trend has slowed but shows no sign of ending. Unilateral trading can consider flexible stop - profit or arbitrage hedging [10]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - Short - and medium - term bonds may be volatile and bullish, but the odds are more important than the direction. The market is waiting for the final PMI data and the first - quarter treasury bond issuance plan. The overall market sentiment is weak, and the short - term bonds are supported by funds, while the ultra - long - term bonds are still weak [12]. 4. Black Commodities 4.1. Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little interference with steel production, which is relatively bearish for finished products and steel mill profits. The downstream demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for rolled products is good. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The price of steel is expected to be volatile, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies [14][15]. 4.2. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise in the short term but are restricted by factors such as coal mine production, safety supervision, and downstream demand. There is a potential for a phased rebound, but the space and strength are limited [17]. 4.3. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall idea is to be short on rallies. The current industrial end of manganese silicon lacks driving forces, and the speculative demand is almost zero. Ferrosilicon has greater price elasticity, so attention should be paid to position management [18]. 4.4. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see. For glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the supply of glass may be reduced through cold - repair, which may improve the supply - demand pattern [19]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 5.1. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price may adjust downward due to weakening demand expectations in the first quarter, but in the long term, the demand is positive. Pay attention to buying opportunities during the correction [21]. 5.2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has some room for valuation repair but is still under pressure for rebound. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies. Polysilicon can be bought on dips, but operate with caution due to large price fluctuations [23]. 6. Agricultural Products 6.1. Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Supported by pre - holiday replenishment demand, the cotton futures price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. 6.2. Sugar - After the domestic sugar market enters the season of strong supply and demand and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounds to repair the valuation, pay attention to the pressure from hedging positions. It is advisable to wait and see or take a slightly short - term bearish operation [27]. 6.3. Eggs - The supply - demand pattern of eggs is still loose. Before the Spring Festival, the upside space of the spot price is limited. The far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a post - festival inventory "gap" but have a high valuation, so it is advisable to wait and see [29]. 6.4. Apples - The apple futures price is expected to be volatile. The current market shows limited transactions in the production areas and slow sales in the sales areas. Pay attention to the price changes in the sales areas [31]. 6.5. Corn - Pay attention to the grain - selling sentiment after New Year's Day and whether the policy - grain auction will be implemented. The corn price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [33]. 6.6. Red Dates - The market is in a stage of new - product arrival, with supply pressure. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Pay attention to the sales rhythm and purchasing mentality in the sales areas [33]. 6.7. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is driven up by supply - demand mismatch but is not expected to continue to rise significantly. Consider shorting the main contract on rallies [34]. 7. Energy and Chemicals 7.1. Crude Oil - The crude oil supply is in surplus, and the price is mainly driven downward. Geopolitical issues have a phased impact. The oil price is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East [34]. 7.2. Fuel Oil - The supply - demand structure of fuel oil is loose, and the price follows the oil price. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers, and the inventory is increasing [37]. 7.3. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak downstream demand. The price may have a small - scale rebound due to upstream losses but has no strong upward driving force. It is advisable to view it with a bullish - volatile mindset [38]. 7.4. Rubber - Reduce long positions on rallies and hold the remaining positions for observation. Pay attention to the raw material supply in Thailand, the approaching end of the cutting season in the northeast, domestic demand, and macro factors [39]. 7.5. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term sentiment fluctuates significantly. Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side basis. It is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. Pay attention to factors such as butadiene, butadiene rubber plants, downstream purchasing sentiment, and policy changes [40]. 7.6. Methanol - The actual supply - demand situation of methanol has slightly improved. In the short term, there may be some support, and the near - month contract can be viewed with a bullish - volatile mindset. The far - month contract can be gradually considered for a slightly long - side allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [40][41]. 7.7. Caustic Soda - Take a bearish view of the near - month contract and dynamically hold long positions in the far - month 05 contract [42]. 7.8. Asphalt - The price of asphalt is expected to have a larger fluctuation range. The future focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [43]. 7.9. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand of the polyester chain shows signs of weakening, and the market is in a short - term adjustment. Consider the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 5 - and 9 - month contracts of PX and PTA [44]. 7.10. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The import cost supports the LPG price, and the futures price fluctuates between the fundamentals and the delivery logic. The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as high import costs and large warehouse - receipt pressure [45][46]. 7.11. Pulp - The fundamentals of pulp are gradually improving, but there may be pressure from hedging positions. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. If the spot price is stable and there are deliverable long - term goods with a suitable cost, consider selling out - of - the - money call options on the 03 contract [47]. 7.12. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly bearish, and the spot price has temporarily stabilized. The market is expected to be weakly balanced in terms of supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to be volatile [48]. 7.13. Urea - The urea futures have fully priced in the expectation of post - holiday demand recovery. On the last trading day of 2025, view it with a volatile mindset [49].

农产品早报 2025-12-31 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 3、加拿大统计局的报告显示，11 月份油菜籽压榨量为 102 万吨，与去年 11 月份基本持平。11 月份农 户的油菜籽交付量为 162 万吨，比去年同期增长 11.1%。 周二国内油脂震荡，马棕高频出口数据环比转好，印尼计划对非法种植园罚款亦有所利好，不过马棕高 频产量同比较高、出口同比偏低压制行情，国内棕榈油库存也较高。菜油近月减仓回落。广州 24 度棕 榈油基差 05-40（0）元/吨，江苏一级豆油基差 05+500（0）元/吨，华东菜油基差 05+700（0）元/吨。 【策略观点】 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 蛋白粕 【行情资讯】 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周二 CBOT 大豆震荡收跌，巴西大豆存丰产预期，阿 ...

农产品期权 2025-12-31 农产品期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花偏强盘整，谷物类玉米和淀粉偏多窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints The report presents market analyses and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the supply and demand, market performance, and price trends of each commodity, and provides corresponding trading suggestions based on these factors. Summary by Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market rebounded sharply; influenced by silver's decline and Fed's rate - cut decision; supply remains tight. Suggest waiting for volatility to decline [2]. - **Aluminum**: Price closed slightly lower; supply increased, demand decreased. Expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Alumina**: Price unchanged; supply decreased due to environmental control, demand remained high. Price to stay weak [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rose; supply increased, demand from some industries decreased. Expected to oscillate between 8400 - 9200 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand from some sectors decreased, inventory decreased in December. Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose; supply stable, demand from downstream sectors decreased. Suggest waiting for price to decline to enter the market [3]. - **Tin**: Price rebounded; supply tight, influenced by silver and Fed's decision. Suggest waiting for buying opportunities [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Price dropped; inventory decreased, demand weak, supply decreased. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 2605 contract [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Price dropped; supply increased, demand may decrease. Suggest waiting, reference range 765 - 795 [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Price rose; supply and demand weak, futures overvalued. Suggest waiting and trying to short the 09 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans oscillate weakly; domestic market is near - strong and far - weak. Core depends on South American output [5]. - **Corn**: Price oscillated; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [5]. - **Edible Oils**: Market is in oscillation and differentiation. Pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [5]. - **Cotton**: Suggest buying at low prices, reference range 14300 - 14800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: Price oscillated weakly; supply - demand contradiction is small. Futures price expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Price rebounded; supply - demand pressure eased. Futures price expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Price oscillated; supply pressure increased but slowed, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [7]. - **PVC**: Price dropped; supply - demand is weak, macro situation improved. Suggest reverse arbitrage [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is balanced and loose, PTA supply is balanced and tight. Suggest mid - term long - position for PX and focus on 05 contract for PTA [7][8]. - **Glass**: Price rose; supply - demand expected to improve, undervalued. Suggest waiting [8]. - **PP**: Price oscillated; supply increased, demand decreased. Suggest buying far - month contracts at low prices in the long - term [8]. - **MEG**: Price situation; supply is high, inventory increased. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Price oscillated; supply pressure is large, demand is in the off - season. Suggest short - position at high prices [8]. - **Styrene**: Price oscillated; supply - demand is weak in the short - term. Suggest long - position for styrene or reverse arbitrage for pure benzene in the second quarter [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Price rose; supply is large, demand is weak. Suggest short - position [9].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report [1] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Analysis Price Data - Corn prices in Changchun remained stable at 2160, while prices in other regions fluctuated slightly, with a 10 increase in Shekou. The basis increased by 19, and trade profit and import profit increased by 10 and 33 respectively. [3] - Starch prices in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained stable at 2750 and 2800 respectively. The basis increased by 9, and processing profit remained unchanged. [3] Market Analysis - Corn: In the short term, the market sentiment is affected by the targeted auction policy, and the price in the southern port has回调. However, due to the strong price - holding intention of farmers in the producing areas, the supply of circulating grain is limited, and the spot price in the producing areas is firm. After the New Year's Day, the downstream may enter the seasonal restocking stage, which may drive up the corn price. In the long term, attention should be paid to the import policy and domestic auction policy. [4] - Starch: In the short term, due to the decline in downstream restocking enthusiasm, the de - stocking speed of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and the starch price is still weak. After the New Year's Day, supported by the year - end stocking season, the starch price is expected to rise slightly. In the long term, attention should be paid to the downstream consumption rhythm. [4] Group 3: Sugar Analysis Price Data - Sugar prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, while the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis decreased by 5, and the Zhengzhou futures price increased by 170. [5][6] Market Analysis - In the short term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures price can be determined by domestic sugar production cost and spot price. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will decline to the cost of duty - paid imports. Weather risks and policy changes should be monitored. [6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Analysis Price Data - Cotton prices showed an upward trend, with a 40 increase in the 3128 variety. Import profit and other indicators also changed slightly. [21] Market Analysis - The initial inventory of cotton is relatively low year - on - year, offsetting most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good recent profits, and the positive result of the Sino - US Fusan talk, the demand for cotton is expected to improve next year, making it suitable for long - term long positions. [9] Group 5: Egg Analysis Price Data - Egg prices in most regions fluctuated slightly, with a 0.06 decrease in Hubei. The basis decreased by 34. The price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, while the prices of yellow - feather broilers and pigs increased slightly. [13] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If farmers cull chickens more quickly, it will accelerate the de - stocking process. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull a batch of 400 - day - old chickens, which is beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter. [13] Group 6: Apple Analysis Price Data - Apple prices in Shandong 80 first - and second - grade remained stable at 8900.00. The national inventory decreased by 71.00, Shandong inventory decreased by 37.00, and Shaanxi inventory decreased by 67.00. [19][20] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is still light. The price of high - quality apples is stable, while the price of ordinary and lower - quality apples has weakened. The sales in the consumer market are slow, and the de - stocking speed is lower than that of last year. Affected by competing fruits, the futures market is expected to show a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. [20] Group 7: Pig Analysis Price Data - Pig prices in most regions increased, with a 0.05 increase in Henan Kaifeng, a 0.20 increase in Shandong Linyi, etc. The basis decreased by 25.00. [20] Market Analysis - The spot price of pigs increased significantly over the weekend. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and there may be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity de - stocking has improved the long - term sentiment, but the market reaction is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, and policies. [20]

Core Insights - The "Consumption Assistance New Year Action" was launched in Guangdong, focusing on innovative practices and achievements in consumption assistance, with over 300 participating enterprises from supported regions [1][3] - The initiative aims to transform consumption assistance from a "blood transfusion" model to a "blood-making" model, enhancing local industries and generating income for rural areas [3][4] Group 1: Industry Development - The program has developed a replicable market-oriented assistance model, integrating customized agriculture, industry, and educational support, exemplified by the success of birch sap sales exceeding 100 million [3] - The initiative has extended its successful practices to the Xinjiang camel milk industry, achieving cumulative sales of 180 million through quality control and brand empowerment [3] Group 2: Collaborative Mechanisms - A dual-platform collaboration mechanism has been established, creating a comprehensive assistance system that includes incubation and promotion of products, enhancing the market circulation of specialty agricultural products [3][4] - The initiative integrates digital welfare management capabilities to provide a one-stop solution for procurement, facilitating the market access of local agricultural products [4] Group 3: Community Engagement - The offline community service network, comprising over 7,000 community stores, has effectively connected consumers with assistance products, achieving over 900 million views in live broadcasts and selling more than 250 product types [4] - The initiative aims to strengthen collaboration between key production and sales areas, focusing on improving product quality and upgrading industries to promote rural revitalization [4]