Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of agricultural products in the commodity futures market vary. Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply and demand, and trade agreements [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The futures price of soybean meal is affected by market sentiment, fund position - changing, and oil - meal arbitrage. Future supply expectations are influenced by Sino - US negotiation results, and short - term soybean futures prices will mainly oscillate. It is also affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Market sentiment is boosted by news of domestic soybean oil exports. The active oil - meal arbitrage funds drive the rebound of oils and fats. It is also affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7][8]. 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia has increased the optimistic expectations for palm oil demand. It is also affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market has experienced significant declines, particularly in popular varieties such as glass, coking coal, and lithium carbonate, with drops exceeding 5% as of July 29, following a nearly universal downturn on July 28 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since June, coking coal and lithium carbonate have seen substantial price increases, with some commodities rising over 80%, leading to a large accumulation of profit-taking positions [1] - As of July 29, the liquidity in lithium carbonate decreased by 1.315 billion yuan, with a total outflow of 2.938 billion yuan on July 28. Coking coal and glass also saw significant outflows of 4.13 billion yuan and 1.417 billion yuan, respectively, in the last two trading days [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - On July 25, both coking coal and lithium carbonate futures received "reduction orders" from exchanges, limiting the daily opening positions for non-futures company members or clients [5][6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange imposed a limit of 500 contracts for the JM2509 coking coal futures and 2,000 contracts for other coking coal futures, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange set a limit of 3,000 contracts for the LC2509 lithium carbonate futures [5][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price surges in commodities like coking coal and lithium carbonate were unsustainable, with the exchanges' intervention aimed at cooling the overheated market [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to have varying impacts on different futures, significantly affecting commodities like polysilicon, coal, and glass, while having a more emotional impact on lithium carbonate [7][8] - The long-term trend for lithium carbonate prices will depend on the clearing of supply pressures from upstream resources, with expectations of continued oversupply until 2025 [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) futures, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade affects market sentiment and US soybean export prospects, and the weak fundamentals of domestic soybean meal remain unchanged. The futures price is more affected by market sentiment, with funds shifting positions, reduced price fluctuations, and a growing short - term wait - and - see sentiment [5]. - For the palm oil (P) futures, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile. After the trade agreement between the US and the EU, international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by oil price fluctuations and will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that Sino - US trade uncertainty impacts market sentiment and US soybean exports, and domestic fundamentals are weak, with price fluctuations reduced due to fund position - shifting [5][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term, the price movement is affected by its bio - diesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. In the medium - term, it is also affected by these factors. The current intraday view is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. The reference view is strongly volatile. The core logic is that after the US - EU trade agreement, international oil prices rebounded, and palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, will maintain high - level volatility in the short term [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Movement Logic**: In the short - term and medium - term, the price movement is affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. The intraday view is strongly volatile, and the reference view is strongly volatile [7].

Market Overview - The market showed a slow upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closing up by 0.12%, 0.44%, and 0.96% respectively, indicating a mixed performance overall [4][5] Film Industry - The film sector opened strong, with notable stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and China Film hitting the daily limit, while the overall sector rose by 2.34% [7] - The summer box office for 2025 has surpassed 5 billion yuan, with daily box office exceeding 100 million yuan for ten consecutive days [7] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" has exceeded expectations, grossing over 400 million yuan in its first three days, with total box office predictions now exceeding 3.2 billion yuan [7] Commodity Futures - Commodity futures have shown significant volatility, with polysilicon futures experiencing a sharp drop after a previous surge, while coking coal and coke futures also faced declines [9][10] - Lithium carbonate futures had a strong performance last week but faced a correction today, with related A-share stocks showing slight declines [10] Autonomous Driving - Shanghai issued the first batch of demonstration operation licenses for intelligent connected vehicles, which had been anticipated for several weeks [14] - Despite the hype, stocks in the autonomous driving sector experienced a collective decline, with companies like Jinjiang Online and Shanghai Public Transport seeing significant drops [16] Tourism Sector - The recent controversy surrounding the abbot of Shaolin Temple has sparked interest in related tourism stocks, particularly Emei Mountain A, which opened up by 3% but closed with a modest gain of less than 1% [23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation - weak respectively [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Situation - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.32% to 501.9 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday [5]. Driving Factors - Macro factors improved as the US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, leading to a recovery in the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - The sharp decline of black commodities on last Friday weakened the bullish atmosphere in the commodity futures market and increased the bearish sentiment. Currently, the supply - demand structure of the crude oil market is strong on both sides, and macro sentiment is dominant [5]. Forecast - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillation - weak trend on Monday this week [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade continues to affect market sentiment, influencing the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the price of US soybean futures will remain volatile. The weak reality of the domestic soybean meal fundamentals remains unchanged, and its futures price is more affected by market sentiment. With some funds leaving the market, the price has dropped significantly from its high and will run weakly in a volatile manner before market sentiment recovers [5]. - The overall decline in international oil prices has a continuous spill - over effect on the oil and fat market, suppressing the bio - energy demand prospects of the oil and fat sector. As palm oil has the strongest bio - energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, it is greatly affected by the fluctuations of international oil prices, and the risk of high - level fluctuations in palm oil futures prices increases in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade uncertainty affects US soybean export prospects, and domestic soybean meal fundamentals are weak. Market sentiment and capital flow influence the futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices suppresses the bio - energy demand of the oil and fat sector. Palm oil, with strong bio - energy attributes, is greatly affected by international oil price fluctuations, increasing short - term high - level volatility risks [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.75% to 15405 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors such as trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings, and rumored EU - US tariff agreements have increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has raised concerns about supply disruptions in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.91% to 12285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The stabilization and strengthening of crude oil futures prices, along with the joint rise of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber futures, have led to the resonance of positive factors [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of soybean meal futures prices is influenced by market sentiment and fluctuates significantly. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend, while the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all bullish with a volatile bias [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are boosted by the slight rebound of international oil prices and the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices, and the intraday and medium - term views are bullish with a volatile bias [8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish; Medium - term: bullish; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [5][7] - **Core Logic**: After the concentrated exit of long - position funds, the futures price dropped significantly. The market is waiting for the result of the US trade negotiations with other countries, which will affect the export prospects of US soybeans. Before the final result is announced, the US soybean futures price will remain volatile. The price of soybean meal futures is more affected by market sentiment and fluctuates violently. In the short - term, it may turn to a volatile trend [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: bullish with a volatile bias; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: bullish with a volatile bias; Reference view: bullish with a volatile bias [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The slight rebound of international oil prices boosts the entire oil and fat sector. As the variety with the strongest energy attribute in the oil and fat sector, palm oil is the first to be affected and shows strength. In addition, it is favored by funds due to the oil - meal arbitrage. In the short - term, it benefits from biodiesel demand and international crude oil prices. Attention should also be paid to the possible adverse impact of the Indonesian fire on palm oil production in some areas [8]. Other Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term is within one week; Medium - term is from two weeks to one month (based on the previous day's night - session closing price) [7] - **Calculation of Price Fluctuation**: For varieties with night - session trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day. The definition of price trends is: a decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly volatile; an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly volatile; an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The views of strongly/weakly volatile only apply to intraday views, and no distinction is made between short - term and medium - term [2][3][4]