Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a significant increase in positions and prices, especially in the afternoon, with a gain of over 1,000 yuan/ton, approaching the post - holiday high of 88,000 yuan. After the Fourth Plenary Session in China, the macro - environment has clearly improved. Against the background of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in domestic and international macro - environments, copper prices continue to rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum first declined and then rebounded. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. The inventories of domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have decreased, providing industrial support for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices have broken through the 21,000 - yuan mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel first declined and then rebounded, standing above the 122,000 - yuan mark at the close. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. Nickel prices are at a low level since September, but there is still industrial pressure, and the rebound of nickel prices is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From the perspective of downstream industries of copper cable enterprises, the State Grid has released scattered orders, with limited scale and mainly for rigid demand; new orders for automobile wiring harnesses are suppressed by high copper prices. In terms of inventory, due to insufficient orders, enterprises only maintain rigid - demand procurement, and the raw material inventory ratio has decreased by 1.78 percentage points; enterprises have slowed down production and adopted a production - on - sales model, and the finished - product inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum average price premium and discount, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][27][31] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper prices rose 1.49% to $10,817 per ton, with domestic prices slightly following. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, Sino-US consultations, and improved market risk appetite boosted copper prices, and attention is on whether LME copper can break through previous highs [1]. - Overnight alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory reached a 3 - year high, with supply surplus pressure increasing, but it may be bottoming out. Aluminum ingot supply declined, and the de - stocking process was optimistic [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.29% and Shanghai nickel rose 0.8%. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was evident, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with caution for macro - level disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices increased. US housing data was stable, and Sino - US consultations were scheduled. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal enhanced market confidence. LME, Comex, and domestic inventories showed different trends. Market risk appetite improved, and copper prices were expected to strengthen [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory hit a 3 - year high, with some high - cost producers near the break - even point. Overseas supply decreased, and domestic aluminum water supply increased, leading to a decline in aluminum ingot supply and optimistic de - stocking [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - stainless steel and new energy industries had different situations. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was significant, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products increased, and inventory changes were mixed. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: Prices of lead products generally increased, and inventory changes were different. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import profit increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Alumina inventory increased. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased slightly, and inventory changes were mixed. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%. Inventory changes were different, and the active contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. Inventory decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. Non - Core Content (Team Introduction) - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field [50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 24, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,500, the LME price was 10,733, and the ratio was 7.96; the domestic three - month price was 86,000, the LME price was 10,745, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME price was 3,260, and the ratio was 6.78; the domestic three - month price was 22,370, the LME price was 3,035, and the ratio was 5.77. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, with a profit of - 5,619.46 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,040, the LME price was 2,819, and the ratio was 7.46; the domestic three - month price was 21,170, the LME price was 2,811, and the ratio was 7.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2,543.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,400, the LME price was 14,999, and the ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1,318.15 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,125, the LME price was 1,971, and the ratio was 8.69; the domestic three - month price was 17,490, the LME price was 2,008, and the ratio was 11.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 250.04 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 690, 620, 600, and 570 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, and 1828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 360, 385, 420, and 445, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 570 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 150, 155, 145, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, 330, 290, and 315, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, and 531 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 260, 450, 670, and 930 [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 790, and the theoretical spread was 5827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 90 and 600, and the theoretical spreads were 397 and 971 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 115 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 325 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 35 and 440, and the theoretical spreads were 161 and 275 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 4.06, 4.92, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.58, 3.78, 5.38, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Today, the copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 mark. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the copper price broke through the 86,000 mark with increasing positions and has strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the aluminum price broke through the 21,000 mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated and rose slightly at the end of the session, with the open interest rising accordingly. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The nickel price is at a low level since September, but the industrial pressure remains, and the rebound of the nickel price is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the current high copper price makes it difficult for end - customers to bear the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise in raw material prices. They prefer to consume their own inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in orders. This weak demand situation has been transmitted to the enameled wire sector, leading to insufficient orders in the industry recently and the continuous low operating rate of enterprises [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,800 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **沪铜**: Last night, Shanghai copper hit bottom and rebounded, and today it oscillated upward to regain losses, with little change in open interest. The decline in copper price last night was mainly affected by the sharp drop in gold price, but the overall trend was resilient. The downstream industry remained in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the spot premium continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 85,000 mark [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The downstream industry makes rigid purchases, and there is no momentum to reduce the low - level inventory. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 21,000 mark [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, the nickel price hit bottom and rebounded in the morning and oscillated strongly during the day. In the short term, as the copper price stabilizes, the non - ferrous sector operates strongly. The nickel price is at a low level since September, and short - covering willingness is strong. The industrial pressure remains, and the nickel price has weak rebound momentum. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Citi is bullish on copper and aluminum in the medium term. The copper price will reach $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months, and the aluminum price will reach $3,500 per ton by 2027 [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 400 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan per ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, aluminum monthly spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the strong side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, long - term supporting copper prices. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,175 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. LME low inventory has led to a significant spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,325 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,781 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 487,125 tons, and the daily change was - 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,210 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 206.29 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and the daily change was - 54 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,993 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 39.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 350 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,475 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 56.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 日内铜价走强 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜上午增仓上行，一度逼近 8.6 万关口，午后高位小幅回 落。周五夜盘市场风险偏好回升，叠加今日国内宏观数据较好，利 好铜价。产业上，下游观望氛围较浓，周一电解铜社库小幅累库， 给予期价压力。技术上，关注前期高位压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝在 2.09 万上方窄幅震荡，持仓量持续下降，振幅明显收 窄。今日宏观回暖，但铝价表现较弱，这很可能是由于产业压力较 大。技术上，铝价在 2.1 万关口压力 ...