1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides daily data briefings on various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. 3. Summary by Metals Gold (AU) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (AU) main contract closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, with a change of -3.74 compared to July 9; COMEX gold main contract closed at 3330.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of -55.90 compared to July 9; London gold spot price was 3352.30 dollars/ounce, with a change of -34.13 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was -0.19 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 24.60 dollars/ounce [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Silver (AG) main contract closed at 9152 yuan/kilogram, with a change of -73 compared to July 9; COMEX silver main contract closed at 37.99 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.38 compared to July 9; London silver spot price was 38.26 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.19 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Basis**: The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was -2 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was -0.32 dollars/ounce [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract closed at 77980 yuan/ton, with a change of -110 compared to July 9; LME copper 3M closed at 9641.50 dollars/ton, with a change of -4.50 compared to July 9; COMEX copper main contract was 5.52 dollars/pound, with a change of -0.01 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was -270 yuan/ton, and the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was -210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipt inventory was 50242 tons, with an increase of 109 compared to July 9; international copper warehouse receipt inventory was 10236 tons, with an increase of 5753 compared to July 9 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract closed at 20475 yuan/ton, with a change of -205 compared to July 9; LME aluminum 3M closed at 2582.50 dollars/ton, with a change of -10.00 compared to July 9; the alumina (AO) main contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, with a change of -19 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was 40 yuan/ton, and the alumina monthly spread (AO00 - AO01) was 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 68928 tons, with a decrease of 900 compared to July 9; alumina warehouse receipt inventory was 25526 tons, with a decrease of 35084 compared to July 9 [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract closed at 22045 yuan/ton, with a change of -40 compared to July 9; LME zinc 3M closed at 2699 dollars/ton, with a change of -21 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 2472 tons, with an increase of 12161 compared to July 9; LME zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 118600 tons, with a decrease of 9650 compared to July 9 [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract closed at 16895 yuan/ton, with a change of -35 compared to July 9; LME lead 3M closed at 1987.00 dollars/ton, with a change of -1.50 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was -20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 13699 tons, with a decrease of 682 compared to July 9; LME lead warehouse receipt inventory was 271075 tons, with an increase of 10125 compared to July 9 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract closed at 120550 yuan/ton, with a change of 2070 compared to July 9; LME nickel 3M closed at 15165 dollars/ton, with a change of 175 compared to July 9; the stainless steel (SS) main contract closed at 12670 yuan/ton, with a change of -25 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was -20 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 21049 tons, with an increase of 372 compared to July 9; stainless steel warehouse receipt inventory was 110872 tons, with a decrease of 179 compared to July 9 [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai Tin (SN) main contract closed at 263960 yuan/ton, with a change of 720 compared to July 9; LME tin 3M closed at 33385 dollars/ton, with a change of 35 compared to July 9 [1]. - **Spreads**: The Shanghai tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was 770 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 39 tons, with an increase of 6777 compared to July 9; LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was 1980 tons, with a decrease of 115 compared to July 9 [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and positive, with power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may range - fluctuate, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output should be monitored [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,910 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,644 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 48.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 109,625 tons, and the daily change was 900 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and factors such as US tariffs, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output should be watched [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,733 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 9.95 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 113,400 tons, and the daily change was 8,150 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 405,550 tons, and the daily change was 5,275 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 210.81 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 402 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 220 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,005 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 31.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 260,950 tons, and the daily change was 11,575 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 115.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,095 tons, and the daily change was 125 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, copper prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner above 78,000, with a slight decline in open interest. At the macro level, copper is affected by US tariffs, resulting in high uncertainty and continuous capital outflows. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. After the futures price dropped, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then stabilized in a fluctuating manner, with continuous decline in open interest. At the macro level, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. The main futures price reached a high and then pulled back, facing significant pressure. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, aluminum prices dropped significantly. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose in the morning, stabilizing in a fluctuating manner during the day. At the macro level, copper and aluminum are affected by tariffs and are operating weakly, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole, while nickel performed relatively strongly today. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, which is bearish for nickel prices; downstream, the domestic macro expectations are rising, stainless steel is strengthening, and downstream demand may improve, providing support for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate above 120,000 [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons compared to July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to Cailian Press and the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China, examining whether aluminum tableware made of Chinese - produced aluminum foil imported from Thailand and Vietnam is used to circumvent the current anti - dumping and countervailing measures of the US against Chinese products [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,950 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Alumina: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited trading operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] - Polysilicon: ななな (No clear indication of investment rating) [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks, US interest rate cut expectations, and the "anti - involution" theme, which have different impacts on various metals [1][3] - Different metals have different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly Summaries by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper futures closing down with fluctuations. Spot copper was reported at 78,720 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 50 yuan and a Guangdong copper discount of 30 yuan. The refined - scrap spread tightened to 860 yuan [1] - The market is concerned about Trump's tariff news. Given the domestic off - season and increased pressure from Trump's tariff remarks, the downward trend may expand, and short positions are recommended [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the East China spot discount slightly widening to 70 yuan. During the off - season, there is a negative feedback in the spot market, but the inventory accumulation is not significant. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a multi - year high, indicating a large market divergence [2] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the movement of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai quotation is 19,600 yuan, and the delivery product shows a premium. If the price spread between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy expands, consider a long AD and short AL strategy [2] - The "anti - involution" theme in the over - supplied industry has driven up the alumina futures and spot prices, but the domestic alumina operating capacity has returned to a historical high, and the upside space may be limited [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory has continuously declined to 105,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spread has changed from a discount to a premium. The overseas market is strong, and the spot import loss has expanded to over 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic zinc exchange inventory has increased by 4,617 tons to 49,981 tons, and the position - to - warrant ratio of the 07 contract has dropped below 1. Traders are actively selling at high prices, while downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in weak spot trading and a weakening premium [3] - Despite positive capital flows due to US interest rate cut expectations and domestic "anti - involution," the supply - increase and demand - weakening expectation in the fundamentals remain unchanged, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly, and the market trading is active. The Jinchuan premium is 2,600 yuan, the imported nickel premium is 400 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 150 yuan [6] - The calming of the situation in Indonesia is the main pressure on the ore end. The high - nickel iron price is 913 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened significantly. Inventories at all levels are sufficient, and there is no short - term spot support. It is advisable to try short positions with a light position [6] Tin - Shanghai tin has closed down with a reduction in positions, and the spot tin price is 266,700 yuan. The market is concerned about the repeated low - level state of LME tin inventory at 200 tons, and the overnight LME 0 - 3 month spot premium is 22 dollars [7] - The LME Hong Kong warehouse will start operating on July 15th. It is expected that there will be some inventory reduction in China this week. Hold the previous high - level short positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price has rebounded with fluctuations, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is at a high level, but downstream confidence has increased, and the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong [8] - The time significance of the lithium carbonate rebound is greater than the space significance. The driving force brought by "anti - involution" is weaker than that of the silicon series. Observe the effectiveness of the resistance in the 65,000 - 66,500 yuan range [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures have closed slightly higher at 8,415 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang 421 spot price has increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,550 yuan/ton [9] - Downstream demand has improved marginally. In July, the polysilicon production is expected to break through the 90,000 - 100,000 - ton range in the first half of the year and approach 110,000 tons. The DMC production in June - July has increased significantly month - on - month after months of maintenance [9] - The social inventory decreased slightly last week. With the support of the polysilicon market sentiment and marginal improvement in demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures have closed with fluctuations at 41,330 yuan/ton, and some long positions have been reduced. The M - type re - feedstock price is stable at 46,000 yuan/ton, and the current spot trading is relatively limited [10] - Affected by the polysilicon sentiment, the silicon wafer price has risen significantly. The exchange will increase the margin next Monday, and the trading logic will gradually return to the fundamentals. The polysilicon warrant quantity is basically stable, and the upside hedging pressure is small. The price is expected to follow the spot and oscillate strongly [10]

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September interest rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump plans to send letters to multiple countries to clarify new tariff rates, and with the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again. Both macro and fundamental factors led to the decline of Shanghai zinc futures. However, there are signs of a halt in the hourly line, and the 22,000 yuan integer mark of Shanghai zinc provides strong support [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,135 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,140 yuan/ton, a low of 21,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 115 yuan, a decline rate of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 890 to 3,150. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,070 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,115 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, a decline of 135 yuan, a decline rate of 0.61%, and the position decreased by 7,658 to 118,874. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 22,025 yuan/ton, closed at 21,960 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,050 yuan/ton, a low of 21,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 155 yuan, a decline rate of 0.70%, and the position decreased by 1,465 to 87,420 [7] - **Market Performance**: On July 9, most non - ferrous metals closed lower. SHFE zinc opened lower in the morning, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed. The main contract closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan or 0.61%, with reduced volume and positions. LME zinc inventories accelerated to below 110,000 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C22.05, and the import profit and loss was - 889.14 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's operating rate was high due to good smelter profits, and the zinc ingot supply still increased. The consumption side entered the off - season and gradually weakened, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was gradually emerging, with social inventories increasing by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons on Monday [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 8, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,025 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,045 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 21,955 - 22,185 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 170 - 180 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 160 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 180 - 220 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market was around 21,965 - 22,165 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Qilin quoted a delivered premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and Honglu - v zinc ingots quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 21,890 - 22,110 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 21,920 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,740 - 21,960 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 25,400 yuan/ton. 0 ordinary zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,865 - 22,075 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained stable. In the first period, holders quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Anning, and Lanxing quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton over the net price [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and SMM, and related charts like the two - market zinc price trend, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][16]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...

| | 20250707申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能窄幅震荡为主 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | 铜 | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收跌。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 铝：夜盘沪 ...