Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of positive and negative factors. The supply of concentrates is tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow. The power industry, PV installation, auto production and sales show positive growth, while the growth of home appliance output slows and the real estate sector remains weak [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range and weak fluctuations. The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected continuous increase in smelting output. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with factors such as inventory increase and mixed downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Market Performance**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 9,981 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 69.58 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 158,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. The power industry maintains positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,280 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,866 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 20.44 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 55,875 tons, with a daily decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising overall, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets increased. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,740 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 5.70 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 481,050 tons with no daily change [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 122,220 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,140 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 15,232 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 185.03 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 209,844 tons, with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 1,994 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a discount of 43.10 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 259,550 tons, with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 273,660 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,110 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month closing price was 34,735 dollars/ton, and the LME spot was at a premium of 140.01 dollars/ton to the 3 - month contract. LME inventory was 2,155 tons, with a daily increase of 145 tons [2].

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美联储独立性被质疑，美国数据支持降息，特兰普关税被裁定不合法，9 月份降息在 | | ★★★ | 做多 | 即，关注区间上方 803、810 附近表现。中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续 | | | | 买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 短期白银跟随黄金市场波动，资金流入较多，破历史新高，白银自身由于双宽政策 | | 白银 | 做多 | 积极，中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化，使得需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，供需 | | ★★ | | 缺口明显，白银向上趋势不变。但是谨防短期美元流动性风险 | | | | 宏微共振，沪铜重回 8 万大关，建议多单继续持有，新入场回调轻仓试多，中长期， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | ★★ | | | | | | 宏观和板块情绪积极，沪锌跟涨外盘，但国内需求疲软库存累库叠加政策真空期， | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on September 3, 2025, aiming to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 80140, LME price is 9818, and the ratio is 8.15; March price in China is 79600, LME price is 9888, and the ratio is 8.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.13, with a profit of - 38.94, and the profit for spot export is - 423.72 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22150, LME price is 2872, and the ratio is 7.71; March price in China is 22315, LME price is 2852, and the ratio is 5.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.60, with a profit of - 2542.17 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20710, LME price is 2624, and the ratio is 7.89; March price in China is 20710, LME price is 2619, and the ratio is 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.41, with a profit of - 1369.16 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 122000, LME price is 15185, and the ratio is 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.20, with a profit of - 1683.11 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16650, LME price is 1953, and the ratio is 8.56; March price in China is 16865, LME price is 1996, and the ratio is 11.16. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.85, with a profit of - 555.67 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 110, - 170, - 180, and - 220 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1308, and 1715 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 175, 165, 165, and 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 453, and 573 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 60, 50, 35, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 330, 445, and 560 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are 40, 55, 55, and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, and 524 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of next - month, March, April, and May minus the spot month are - 690, - 490, - 340, and - 190 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 640, and the theoretical spread is 5672 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 305 and - 415 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 205 and 633 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 0 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 147 and 276 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are 160 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 144 and 255 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.57, 3.84, 4.72, 0.93, 1.23, and 0.76 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.81, 5.01, 0.91, 1.31, and 0.70 respectively [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to continue rising in the future, but the upside may be limited due to concerns about a US recession and high copper prices affecting downstream demand [1]. - Alumina is recommended to be sold on rallies, while electrolytic aluminum may have strong upward momentum in September, and there is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to continue to repair [1][2]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to oscillate with an upward bias as the marginal improvement in nickel - iron and the new energy sectors becomes more evident [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated weakly. A rising gold price may indicate increased risk aversion and potential for copper value re - evaluation. Three factors to watch include the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season in China, and the implementation of anti - involution policies in some domestic industries. However, the US recession expectation and high copper prices may limit the upside of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. Alumina production resumption is increasing, and inventory is piling up. It is recommended to sell on rallies but be cautious about chasing the decline. Downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum may exceed expectations during the peak season, and the industry profit is shifting from upstream to downstream. There is room for the spread of aluminum alloy to repair [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly, but supply increased, and cost support strengthened. The demand for ternary materials in the new energy sector is increasing, and the price of nickel sulfate may continue to rise. First - grade nickel inventory decreased, and consumption increased significantly. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On September 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 79,830 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan/ton from August 29. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 73,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE copper inventories changed slightly [3]. Aluminum - On September 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the inventory of alumina decreased by 0.7 million tons [4][5]. Nickel - On September 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons [4][5]. Zinc - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons [6]. Tin - On September 1, 2025, the main settlement price of tin decreased by 0.7%. The inventory of SHFE tin increased by 75 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those on spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME and SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][15]

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓上行，尾盘逼近 8 万关口。自杰克逊霍尔会议后， 金银铜一起上涨，周五以来有加速上行趋势。我们认为一方面美联 储 9 月议息会议临近，另一方面是内外权益市场出现高位震荡，国内 定价商品也呈现回落，资金轮动。产业层面，国内金九银十产业旺 季，下游需求或持续走强。预计铜价维持强势运行。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铜维持强势 核心观点 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓下行，主力期价盘中跌破 2.06 万关口。宏观层面， 今日黑色系普跌，铝也有所承压，铜铝分化明显。产业层面，本周一 Mysteel 国内电解铝社 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and varying downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak - side fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, PV rush - installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may have weak - side fluctuations within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,180 | 140 | 9,756 | - 88.68 | 155,000 | - 975 | | Aluminum | 20,825 | - 40 | 2,604 | 5.15 | 478,075 | - 650 | | Zinc | 22,305 | - 75 | 2,764 | - 6.85 | 65,525 | - 2,550 | | Nickel | 121,550 | - 2,050 | 15,131 | - 184.70 | 209,148 | - 600 | | Lead | 16,865 | - 155 | 1,985 | - 41.11 | 271,550 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 271,320 | - 3,370 | 34,510 | 167.00 | 1,780 | - 5 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Shanghai copper, the price increased with rising positions during the night session last Friday and maintained strong performance today, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 mark. The dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd led to a significant increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, strengthening industrial support. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price showed an upward trend during the night session last Friday and maintained a volatile trend today. The rising overseas interest - rate cut expectation has increased market risk appetite. However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories increased on Monday. With the improvement of the macro situation and the weak industrial reality, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price hit the bottom and rebounded last Friday, and the main contract price fluctuated above 120,000 today. Although the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded with the improvement of the overseas macro situation, nickel underperformed the sector. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories is suppressing nickel prices. With the improvement of the macro situation and industrial negatives, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [6]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared to August 18 and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to August 21 [8]. Aluminum - On August 25, the spot inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to August 18 and an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 21 [9]. Nickel - On August 25, for the mainstream reference contract SHFE nickel 2509 in the Shanghai market, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,610 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,510 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,560 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][16][20]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum average price spread, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][30][31]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for rebound buying. In the long - term, they are expected to rise, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with long - term optimism due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. Zinc is expected to have limited upside space in the short - term, and a rebound short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and industrial silicon are expected to have short - term rebounds. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short - term, gold has support around 770 and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100 and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise. Copper short - term long positions should be held, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Zinc short - term attention should be paid to filling the upper gap, and long - term rebound short - selling is recommended. Aluminum short - term attention should be paid to taking profits and observing. Nickel and stainless steel short - term should take profits on dips. Lithium carbonate can be bought at low levels after stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average [1][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in liquidity expectations, leading to a notable rise in the gold and silver markets [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Powell's statement exceeded expectations, paving the way for a possible September interest rate cut; Germany's economic concerns deepened with a significant contraction in Q2 GDP; Trump is conducting a major tariff investigation on furniture products, and Canada has adjusted some tariffs. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770, pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and returned to the 79,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally in the future. Currently in the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Global copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, continue to hold long copper positions, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Long - term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to filling the upper gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc rebounded due to Powell's dovish remarks, but the upside space may be limited. Short - term, previous short positions can take profits and wait and see. Long - term, maintain the view of rebound short - selling. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded and recovered, and alumina showed a slight stabilizing trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cut expectations are obvious, with a decline in costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to remain loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai aluminum should focus on taking short - term profits and observing, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,000] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized, and stainless steel rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment is positive. Nickel ore prices are weak, and smelters are at a loss. Nickel production increased in July, and inventory accumulated again. Stainless steel production cuts weakened, and the off - season pressure remains [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Nickel and stainless steel should take short - term profits on dips, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved low, with a decline of more than 4% [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Supply production increased slightly, and demand is approaching the peak season. Downstream factories are stocking up, and the total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating good demand. After stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average, it can be bought at low levels [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [78,000 - 81,000] yuan/ton [22].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with polysilicon prices rising while lithium carbonate prices decline [1] Price Movements - Lithium carbonate futures decreased by 0.43%, priced at 79,280.00 CNY/ton - Polysilicon futures increased by 1.89%, priced at 52,175.00 CNY/ton - Alumina futures rose by 1.02%, priced at 3,174.00 CNY/ton - Shanghai tin futures increased by 1.13%, priced at 269,340.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on August 25 include: - Alumina: Opened at 3,141.00 CNY, closed at 3,142.00 CNY - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 81,000.00 CNY, closed at 79,620.00 CNY - Shanghai copper: Opened at 78,710.00 CNY, closed at 78,710.00 CNY - International copper: Opened at 69,780.00 CNY, closed at 69,810.00 CNY - Shanghai aluminum: Opened at 20,625.00 CNY, closed at 20,670.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Inventory Changes - As of August 22, warehouse receipts for various metals showed the following changes: - Copper: Decreased by 1,009 tons to 24,148 tons - Aluminum: Decreased by 2,746 tons to 57,144 tons - Zinc: Increased by 503 tons to 32,791 tons - Tin: Decreased by 205 tons to 7,053 tons - Lead: Decreased by 476 tons to 58,946 tons - Nickel: Decreased by 36 tons to 22,552 tons - International copper: Remained stable at 6,125 tons - Alumina: Increased by 1,793 tons to 77,746 tons - Lithium carbonate: Increased by 670 contracts to 24,990 contracts - Polysilicon: Increased by 80 contracts to 6,540 contracts - Industrial silicon: Decreased by 117 contracts to 51,049 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for selected metals indicate: - Copper: Spot price at 78,855 CNY, futures price at 78,700 CNY, basis of 155 CNY, basis rate of 0.20% - Zinc: Spot price at 22,186 CNY, futures price at 22,245 CNY, basis of -59 CNY, basis rate of -0.27% - Aluminum: Spot price at 20,696.7 CNY, futures price at 20,670 CNY, basis of 26 CNY, basis rate of 0.13% [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]