Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Date: December 15, 2025 [5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Core Views Copper - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, copper prices dropped sharply by over 3000 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, copper prices stabilized and rebounded to the 92,500 yuan mark. As copper prices fell, the spot premium rose, indicating strong restocking willingness among downstream industries. Short - term copper price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, copper stabilized and rebounded above the 10 - day moving average and stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the support of the 5 - day moving average can be continuously monitored [7]. Aluminum - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices dropped to the 21,600 yuan mark, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded to the 21,900 yuan mark, but the trading volume continued to decline, showing strong short - term profit - taking willingness among funds. Short - term aluminum price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, the pressure at the 22,000 yuan mark should be monitored [8]. Nickel - Friday night, nickel prices rose and then fell. Today, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume continued to increase. Macroscopically, the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded after reaching the bottom, but nickel prices showed little reaction. Industrially, the high inventory of port nickel ore decreased slowly, and the increase in the inventory of electrolytic nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange put pressure on futures prices. In the short term, the multi - empty game in the non - ferrous metals sector has intensified, and nickel is under pressure with increased positions, and is expected to maintain a weak operation [9]. Industry Dynamics Copper - As of December 15, 2025, the average price of SMM flat - copper premium was about 54 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium was about 82 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively compared with the annual average in 2024. The 2026 long - term order price of domestic trade electrolytic copper in East China increased by over 50 yuan/ton compared with 2025 [11]. Aluminum - On December 15, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 577,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last Monday [12]. Nickel - On December 15, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,500 - 120,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][15][16]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [49][38][50].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in the mining sector have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 91,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 11,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.19 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,000 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,735 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 100 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,846 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.14 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 525,800 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 166.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 57,750 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,375 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 116,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,430 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 192.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,344 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 228 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,115 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,977 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 51.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,825 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 312,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 930 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 39,850 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 46.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,075 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 10 tons [2].

期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜减仓回落明显，主力期价由早盘的 9.25 万一线下挫至收 盘的 9.1 万一线，持仓量也由 65 万下降至 63.5 万张。宏观层面，临 近美联储议息会议，市场风险偏好下降。产业层面，随着铜价上 涨，下游观望氛围渐浓，现货升水走弱。技术层面，铜价减仓回 落，短期多头了结意愿较强，关注 9 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓回落明显，主力期价由早盘的 2.22 万关口回落至收 盘的 2.18 万关口，持仓量由 73 万下降至 66 万张。宏观层面，临近美 联储议息会议，市场风险偏好下降。产业层面，随着铝价上涨，下游 观望情绪升温，现货贴 ...

20251209申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼产量 | | | 和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 | | | 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） ...

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.46% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.90% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.23%, and Shanghai zinc saw a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - Shanghai lead and nickel both experienced minor gains, with lead up by 0.03% and nickel up by 0.39% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin fell by 0.47%, while alumina saw a marginal increase of 0.04% [1] - Aluminum alloy prices dropped by 0.40%, indicating a mixed performance in the aluminum sector [1] - Stainless steel prices increased by 0.64%, reflecting positive momentum in that market segment [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend on December 3, with the main tin futures rising over 2% [1] - As of the latest data, polysilicon futures increased by 1.42% to 57,165.00 CNY/ton, while alumina futures decreased by 1.49% to 2,637.00 CNY/ton [1] - The main aluminum futures rose by 0.34% to 21,930.00 CNY/ton, and the main tin futures increased by 2.02% to 311,980.00 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The opening and closing prices for various non-ferrous metal futures on December 3 were reported, with notable movements in contracts such as alumina, lithium carbonate, and copper [2] - The main alumina futures opened at 2,671.00 CNY and closed at 2,677.00 CNY, while the main lithium carbonate futures remained stable at 96,560.00 CNY [2] - The main copper futures opened at 89,100.00 CNY and closed at 89,090.00 CNY, indicating slight fluctuations in the market [2] Group 3 - The basis data as of November 2 indicated that certain commodities like zinc, nickel, industrial silicon, and international copper experienced a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [2] - The basis and basis rate for various metals were detailed, showing that nickel had a positive basis of 2,427 CNY with a basis rate of 2.02%, while polysilicon had a negative basis of -4,365 CNY with a basis rate of -8.39% [3] - The current spot price for copper was reported at 88,735 CNY, with a negative basis of -355 CNY against the futures price [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 3, 2025 Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88650, the LME spot price was 11263, and the spot price ratio was 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a loss of 1557.87, and there was a profit of 1151.46 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22730, the LME spot price was 3340, and the spot price ratio was 6.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a loss of 5428.02 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21810, the LME spot price was 2859, and the spot price ratio was 7.59. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a loss of 2077.67 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14720, and the spot price ratio was 8.14. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a loss of 1354.70 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17075, the LME spot price was 1963, and the spot price ratio was 8.69. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of 16.01 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 290, - 280, - 270, and - 360 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 548, 994, 1449, and 1904 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 190, 220, 235, and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 459, and 581 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 95, 130, 140, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 220, 341, 462, and 583 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 150, 115, 125, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 590, 820, 1010, and 1270 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 150, and the theoretical spread was 6330 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 625 and 335 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 363 and 810 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 175 and 15, and the theoretical spreads were 125 and 257 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 15 and 135, and the theoretical spreads were 120 and 233 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 3, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.90, 4.05, 5.18, 0.96, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous contracts) were 3.64, 3.89, 5.59, 0.94, 1.44, and 0.65 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be bullish [2] - Zinc: Likely to trade in a range [2] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night trading saw copper prices close higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profit at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, while power source investment slows; auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night trading saw zinc prices close higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Overall, the difference in zinc supply and demand is not significant, and prices are likely to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Other Key Data | **Commodity** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (tons)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (tons)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 89,210 | 50 | 11,233 | 69.10 | 159,425 | 2,250 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,888 | - 27.51 | 539,050 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 65 | 3,091 | 268.39 | 51,750 | 950 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 3,020 | 14,875 | - 201.94 | 254,760 | - 690 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 2,000 | - 41.63 | 263,175 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 304,060 | 1,110 | 39,240 | 150.00 | 3,160 | 35 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 2, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the domestic spot price was 89280, the LME spot price was 11311, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1332.99. The domestic March price was 89320, the LME March price was 11242, and the ratio was 7.93 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22550, the LME spot price was 3334, and the spot ratio was 6.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a profit of - 5558.00. The domestic March price was 22620, the LME March price was 3066, and the ratio was 5.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21730, the LME spot price was 2852, and the spot ratio was 7.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a profit of - 1955.44. The domestic March price was 21900, the LME March price was 2880, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14698, and the spot ratio was 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 1597.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1941, and the spot ratio was 8.75. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a profit of 117.55. The domestic March price was 17055, the LME March price was 1983, and the ratio was 11.37 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 1810, 1850, 1820, and 1710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 539, 977, 1423, and 1869 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 205, 235, 250, and 270 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 265, 300, 310, and 320 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20, 0, 25, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1120, 1330, 1510, and 1800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 330, and the theoretical spread was 6322 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1725 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 36 and 792 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 264 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 137 and 250 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.95, 4.08, 5.24, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.89, 5.62, 0.93, 1.45, and 0.65 respectively [5]