Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has authorized a general license related to sanctions, allowing the unloading of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cargoes in Venezuela until September 5 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, Saudi Aramco's July CP was released, showing an unexpected decline. Propane was at $575/ton (-$25), and butane was at $545/ton (-$25), leading to a significant reduction in import costs. Domestic LPG production decreased slightly, and international vessel arrivals dropped. Civilian demand remained seasonally weak, while the chemical industry's demand showed mixed trends. Next week, civilian demand is expected to stay weak, and the chemical industry's overall start - up rate may be boosted in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor OPEC+ production increases, downstream device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane decreased by $25/ton. Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons, a slight reduction of 0.06%. Civilian gas production was 229,600 tons (-0.39%), and ether - after production was 163,300 tons (-0.55%). International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons (-18.82%), and arrivals are expected to increase next week. Civilian combustion demand was seasonally weak. PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.05% (+0.66%). Civilian gas prices declined slightly, while ether - after C4 prices rose significantly. Next week, civilian demand will remain weak, and the chemical industry's start - up rate may be boosted [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - The report presents data on LPG futures and spot prices, including LPG main contracts, APS propane main contracts, and AFE propane main contracts. It also shows the LPG forward curve, APS propane forward curve, and AFE propane forward curve. Additionally, it provides information on price differences such as PG08 - 09, PG08 - 05, APS propane main - continuous one, etc. Regional quotes, premiums, discounts, and freight rates are also covered, including historical data on US - to - Far - East freight, Middle - East - to - Far - East freight, etc. [7][11][12] 3.3 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports to Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [29][30][31]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It presents historical data on Middle - East LPG exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [35][36][37]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons (-0.06%). Propane supply in China was 545,400 tons, a 17.07% decrease. Domestic refinery production was 46,400 tons, a 7.91% increase. International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons, mainly in Shandong. Inventory data for East China, South China, and Shandong are also provided [44][47][48]. 3.4 Demand - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.06% (+0.66%). The report also shows historical data on alkylation profit, domestic PDH operating rate, MTBE traditional profit, etc. [50][51]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is a wide - range oscillation. This week's changes in PG were driven by both geopolitical dynamics and supply - demand fundamentals. The civil demand remains seasonally weak, while the overall chemical end - use开工率 continues to rise, which is expected to provide some short - term support. However, with the upcoming release of CP next week, the market may adopt a wait - and - see attitude. It is recommended to closely monitor the subsequent release of CP prices, PDH device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price & Spread - The international LPG market fluctuated significantly due to Middle - East geopolitical issues from June 21st to 27th, rising first and then falling, with the AFEI propane index dropping by $53.3 per ton to $538.25 per ton. The domestic market also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The early increase in crude oil prices provided short - term cost support, but later, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and weak demand, prices declined. Regional transaction centers were divided, with the civil gas prices in Shandong and South China rising, the ether - post C4 in Shandong fluctuating widely after a sharp rise and fall, and the East China market oscillating weakly [4]. - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including futures and spot prices of LPG, APS propane, and AFE propane, as well as regional quotes, basis, and historical data on regional premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][11][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, over the years from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It provides historical data on LPG exports from the Middle - East, including data from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as well as LPG imports in India, China, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The domestic LPG production volume increased slightly, with the propane import arrivals concentrated, sufficient supply, and an increase in port inventories. This week, China's propane supply was 646,200 tons, a 72.69% week - on - week increase. Domestically, the total refinery commodity volume was 43,000 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. The international vessel arrivals were 603,200 tons, mainly in South China [4][52]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand continued to recover. The propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit operating rate increased by 3.61% to 70.54% week - on - week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 0.69% to 64.40%. Next week, although Wanda Tianhong plans to shut down for maintenance, Liaoning Jinfa, Hebei Haiwei, and Quanzhou Guoheng are expected to restart. Overall, China's PDH operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [4]. - The report also presents historical data on the profitability and operating rates of chemical products such as alkylation, PDH, and MTBE [55][56].

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts intensify supply concerns, and market volatility risks are rising. From June 14th to 20th, supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected decline in supply, the international liquefied gas market rose strongly across the board. In China, the price of civil gas first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the market was supported by news, but the demand was weak, and the upstream faced pressure in sales and prices declined. The price of etherified C4 continued to rise during the week due to the increase in the operating rate of downstream MTBE. As of June 20th, the market price of etherified C4 in Shandong was 5,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of supply, the domestic liquefied gas production decreased slightly, and the increase in propane arrivals was less than expected due to typhoon weather. In terms of demand, the chemical demand recovered significantly. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. Next week, Wanda Tianhong's PDH plans to conduct maintenance and stop production, but the previously opened manufacturers will gradually increase their loads. Therefore, it is expected that China's PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. In summary, this week's PG changes were mainly dominated by the expected decline in market supply caused by geopolitics. Fundamentally, the civil demand remained seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end's operation continued to recover. It is expected to have a certain boost in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, PDH unit operations, and import arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price & Spread - The document presents various price and spread data of LPG and related propane contracts, including the main LPG contract, APS propane main contract, AFE propane main contract, their forward curves, and the spreads between different contract months of LPG and propane. It also shows the domestic spot prices and basis of different regions, such as East China, South China, and Shandong, for imported gas, civil gas, and etherified C4, as well as historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][9][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The document shows the historical data of US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, from 2019 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents the historical data of LPG exports from the Middle East and major countries such as Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 2019 to 2025 [35][39]. - **Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea**: The historical data of LPG imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 are provided [42]. - **Domestic Supply in China**: The domestic liquefied gas production was 528,000 tons (-0.30%), and civil gas was 224,900 tons (-1.75%). The domestic propane supply was 374,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.82%. Domestically, the total commercial volume of refineries was 40,900 tons, an increase of 1.74% from last week. The international ship arrivals were 333,300 tons, mainly in East China. Due to typhoon weather, the actual arrivals this week were far lower than expected [44][48]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand showed significant recovery. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. The document also presents historical data on the operating rates and profits of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [52][53].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,382 | -0.36% | 4,514 | 3.01% | | 期货 | PG2508 | 4,320 | 0.02% | 4,469 | 3.45% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 98,855 | -14358 | 37,734 | -3755 | | | PG2508 | 52,569 | 3085 | 53,341 | 3057 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 348 | | 332 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 418 | | 402 | | | 产业链重要 价格数据 | | 本周 | | 上周 | | | | PDH开工率 ...

伊朗LPG发货量有下滑迹象，关注局势发展 市场分析 1、\t6月16日地区价格：山东市场，4560—4700；东北市场，4050—4210；华北市场，4505—4650；华东市场， 4480—4750；沿江市场，4730—4880 ；西北市场，4350—4450 ；华南市场，4698—4750。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷627美元/吨，涨4美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4955元/吨，涨32元/吨，丁烷4370元/吨，涨24元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷623美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4924元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4370元/吨，跌15元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着伊以冲突升级，能源板块情绪走强，PG期货跟随原油等商品反弹。现货方面，各地区价格普遍上涨，但幅度 相对有限。华东民用气下游入市积极性尚可，成交氛围良好。作为中东地缘冲突的中心，伊朗LPG供应面临下行 风险，今年出口量水平在100万吨/月左右，其中80%左右 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the LPG market, highlighting increased geopolitical uncertainties and weakening support for the market. It presents various LPG - related data including futures prices, spreads, and industry chain price data, as well as market news such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2507 closed at 4,398 with a daily increase of 1.29% and a night - session close of 4,342 with a decrease of 1.27%. PG2508 closed at 4,319 with a daily increase of 1.60% and a night - session close of 4,258 with a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2507's trading volume was 113,213, a decrease of 61,336 compared to the previous day, and open interest was 41,489, a decrease of 667. PG2508's trading volume was 49,484, a decrease of 30,897, and open interest was 50,284, a decrease of 339 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the 07 contract was 332 (previous day: 378), and the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the 07 contract was 402 this week (previous week: 458) [1]. - **Industry Chain Price Data**: PDH operating rate was 64.3% (previous: 63.0%), MTBE operating rate was 59.7% (previous: 54.7%), and alkylation operating rate was 47.5% (previous: 48.3%) [1]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 13, 2025, the expected price of propane for July Saudi CP was 592 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton from the previous trading day, and the expected price of butane was 562 USD/ton, up 6 USD/ton. For August, the expected price of propane was 579 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton, and the expected price of butane was 549 USD/ton, up 10 USD/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending at various times in 2025 or with undetermined end - dates [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG factories across different regions in China have maintenance plans with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start and end times, and durations [9].