Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog SP Main Contract Closing Price - On October 15, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 4856.00, with a 0.20636% increase from the previous day [3]. - The closing prices from October 9 - 15, 2025, along with corresponding fold - dollar prices, daily changes, and basis in Shandong and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai regions are presented in a table [3]. Pulp Price and Profitability - With a 13% VAT calculation, for imported pulp, the Canadian Golden Lion has a CFR port price of 780 dollars, a Shandong region RMB price of 6200, and an import profit of - 145.57; the Canadian Lion has a CFR price of 730 dollars, a Shandong price of 5360, and an import profit of - 583.29; the Chilean Silver Star has a CFR letter - of - credit 90 - day price of 700 dollars, a Shandong price of 5590, and an import profit of - 111.92 [4]. - From October 9 - 15, 2025, the national and Shandong regional average prices of different types of pulp (coniferous, broad - leaf, natural, and chemimechanical) remained unchanged [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from October 10 - 15, 2025 [4]. - The profit margins of different types of paper showed some changes. For example, the double - offset profit margin decreased from 0.1462% on October 10, 2025, to - 0.0430% on October 15, 2025; the living paper profit margin decreased from 7.2414% on October 10, 2025, to 6.8977% on October 15, 2025 [4]. - The price differences between coniferous pulp and other types of pulp (broad - leaf, natural, chemimechanical, and waste paper) are presented in a table from October 9 - 15, 2025 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 contract. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 13, 2025, SP2601 was 5158, up 1.58% day - on - day and down 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4842, up 1.13% day - on - day and down 3.47% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5228, up 1.79% day - on - day and down 1.28% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On October 13, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, down 0.36% day - on - day and down 1.79% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5000, down 0.99% day - on - day and down 2.91% week - on - week; hardwood pulp was 4250, with no change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, with no change [5] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with no change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in September 2025 was 23.8 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 3.7% from the previous period; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: In September 2025, the production of offset paper was 21.00 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.07 tons, and white cardboard was 35.90 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 13, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 158, with a quantile level of 0.877; the basis of Silver Star was 658, with a quantile level of 0.886 [5] - **Import Profit**: On October 13, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.284; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak volatility [2] - Rolled steel: Weak volatility [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Volatility [2] - CSI 300: Volatility [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong volatility [4] - Silver: Strong volatility [4] - Logs: Increased volatility [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Palm oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range volatility [6] - Soybean meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Rapeseed meal: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 2: Bearish volatility [6] - Soybean No. 1: Bearish volatility [6] - Live pigs: Weak volatility [8] - Rubber: Volatility [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Volatility [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side uncertainties, with weak unilateral drivers for iron ore and varying trends for other products [2] - The financial market shows mixed trends in stock indexes and bonds, with gold and silver expected to be strong due to various factors [4] - The light industry products have different price trends based on supply, demand, and cost factors, such as logs with increased volatility and pulp in consolidation [6] - The agricultural products face challenges in supply and demand, with livestock products like live pigs having a weak short-term outlook and rubber showing volatility [8] - The polyester industry has complex supply-demand relationships, with different products having different investment ratings and price trends [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply concerns arise from pricing disputes and accidents, with short-term focus on steel demand and potential negative feedback [2] - Coking coal and coke: Tariff expectations and supply factors influence the market, with coke's first-round price increase implemented and second-round likely to fail [2] - Rolled steel: Static valuation is low, supply pressure is significant, and demand recovery in October is crucial, with high inventory and weak demand putting pressure on prices [2] - Glass: Supply and demand show no significant improvement, with inventory accumulation and weak demand due to the real estate downturn, and potential policy impact on the future [2] Financial Market - Stock indexes: Most indexes show negative trends, with market sentiment affected by trade and economic data, and investors advised to control risk [4] - Bonds: Treasury bond yields show slight fluctuations, with the central bank's open market operations affecting liquidity, and long-term bonds showing a slight upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to be strong due to factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply is expected to increase after the holiday, with demand gradually recovering, and prices likely to be more volatile [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, demand improvement is uncertain, and prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: Production is stable, demand may improve with new tenders, but price profit is low, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, demand is weak after the holiday, and prices are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations, with attention on production and sales in relevant regions [6] - Meal products: Supply is expected to increase, demand is limited, and prices are expected to be bearish, with attention on soybean planting and imports [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with a possible widening of the price difference between fat and lean pigs [8] - Rubber: Supply pressure varies by region, demand shows some improvement, and inventory is decreasing, with prices likely to fluctuate widely [8] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply increases and demand decreases, with prices following oil price fluctuations and PXN spreads under pressure [9] - PTA: Cost support may weaken, supply and demand improve marginally, and prices follow cost fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply pressure increases, with expected medium-term oversupply, and short-term cost fluctuations affecting prices [9] - PR: The market is sluggish with no strong support from raw materials and supply-demand, and attention is on factory sales and downstream follow-up [9] - PF: Downstream demand is stable, external negative sentiment eases, and prices are expected to stabilize [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The recent typhoon in the main producing areas has caused some sugarcane lodging, raising concerns about production cuts and boosting the sentiment of Zhengzhou sugar futures. However, both international and domestic markets lack positive factors. Brazil's sugar production has continued to recover more than expected, and the large delivery volume of the October contract of raw sugar has led to strong bearish sentiment in the market under the expectation of global production increase. The domestic market has high imports of refined sugar, and new sugar is about to be launched, while the demand is expected to weaken. In this situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the sugar futures and spot prices are still under pressure, and the main contract is struggling around the 5500 level [4]. - **Pulp**: The price of hardwood pulp is relatively strong, and the increase in the US dollar quotation has driven a slight increase in the domestic spot price. However, the external market of softwood pulp has remained stable and weak, causing the domestic spot price to adjust following the futures price. From the global shipping data, the supply of wood pulp is still high, and the shipping volume to China is also higher than the same period last year. Although some pulp mills have cut production, the impact is not obvious from the data, so the supply pressure in China may still be high in the future. On the demand side, the increase in the production of finished paper during the peak season supports the demand for wood pulp, but the price increase of finished paper is weak, which weakens the positive impact on wood pulp. Overall, the valuation of pulp is not high, but the improvement in the fundamentals is limited, and the upward driving force is not strong, so it will maintain a low - level operation in the short term [5]. - **Offset Paper**: After the National Day, the spot price of some brands of offset printing paper in some regions continued to decline. Although the market expects an improvement in demand as the peak season approaches, the current fundamentals are still weak. Without policy news on the supply side, the upward driving force is not clear. Even considering the peak season after October, with the current capacity utilization rate, it is still difficult for offset paper to achieve high profits and prices. After Chenming Paper resumes production, the supply pressure may increase. The increase in the US dollar quotation of hardwood pulp provides some support for offset paper, but the increase in wood pulp price may be limited before the supply further decreases. Overall, the improvement in demand during the peak season may support offset paper, but the seasonal improvement may not bring a significant increase in price, and it will run weakly in the medium term [7][8]. - **Cotton**: This week, the cotton futures price has fluctuated weakly. In the external market, the harvest of US cotton is progressing steadily, and although there is some weather interference, the high - yield situation remains unchanged. The change in Sino - US trade relations has increased consumption concerns, putting pressure on the US cotton price, and the futures price is in a downward trend. In the domestic market, the focus is on the realization of the new season's production. The high - yield situation in Xinjiang is basically determined, and the downstream consumption confidence is still insufficient, with seasonal pressure still existing. Although the slower - than - expected harvest rhythm has slightly supported the sentiment, the overall futures price is still expected to continue to decline due to the change in Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **Apples**: The market has recently focused on two aspects: the change in the new season's expectations, with a delay in the listing and prominent weather disturbances in the producing areas, and the festival consumption situation, which is mixed. The apple futures price fluctuates around the realization of the new season's situation. Currently, there are still differences in the new season's realization, and the futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Jujubes**: After the festival, the agricultural product sector has run weakly, but the jujube futures price has risen slightly after breaking through the resistance. In the fourth quarter, as the weather trading window for jujubes to be harvested shortens, the futures price of the 2601 contract has turned into a shock after failing to break through, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts has converged. In October, the inventory removal speed of jujube spot has slowed down, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm has improved, with the dried fruit consumption gradually transitioning to the seasonal peak season. The price of high - quality jujubes in the sales area is running strongly, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable and firm [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2601**: Adopt a bullish strategy. The main logic is that the difference between the new season's expected and actual situation and the speculation on the delivery value increase, and the futures price may rise in the short term. The support range is 7500 - 7600, and the pressure range is 9000 - 9200 [20]. - **Jujube 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that the overall sentiment of commodities is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the market is prone to focus on weather - related price premiums. The support range is 10500 - 11000, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [20]. - **Sugar 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that Brazil's production rhythm has accelerated, the futures price has limited upward momentum, and the supply - side pressure has increased. The support range is 5424 - 5437, and the pressure range is 5560 - 5574 [20]. - **Pulp 2511**: Adopt a strategy of shorting within the range. The main logic is that although the short - term valuation is not high, the supply is high, and the weak price of domestic finished paper makes the upward driving force of pulp weak, and it will run weakly within the range. The support range is 4700 - 4800, and the pressure range is 5100 - 5200 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2601**: Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. The main logic is that as the peak season approaches, it supports the short - term price, but with high supply elasticity, the price increase may be limited by relying solely on peak - season demand. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [20]. - **Cotton 2601**: Hold short positions cautiously. The main logic is that new cotton is about to be launched, the high - yield expectation is strong, and the change in Sino - US trade relations has put pressure on the short - term futures price. The support range is 12800 - 13000, and the pressure range is 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.57%. As of September 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 121,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,400 tons. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 30,700 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The inventory apple market in Shandong is stable, and the cold - storage goods are rarely traded. New - season late - maturing Fuji apples have not been widely supplied due to weather reasons, and the listing time has been postponed by about 10 days. In Shaanxi, there are few red apples, and only some merchants have started to order high - quality orchards. The market in the sales area is generally stable, and the shipment is smooth [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9167 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 93.89%. During the double festivals, the arrival of goods in the sales area was small, and the number of merchants inspecting and purchasing goods was average due to the holiday mood and rainfall. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old - season goods and the change of spot price before the new - season jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' forecast of the sugar supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season remains the same as last month, with a total sugar production of 1.12 billion tons and an expected import volume of 500,000 tons. In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was not conducive to sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further assessment. In late September and early October, typhoons in the main sugarcane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi caused sugarcane lodging. As of September 30, 2025, Yunnan's cumulative sugar sales were 2.214 million tons, with a sales rate of 91.54%, a year - on - year slight decrease, and an industrial inventory of 204,700 tons, an increase compared to last year [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market Chinese traders have counter - offered to purchase imported NBSK at $650 per ton, but sellers have refused to reduce the price. An European supplier sold NBSK at $650 per ton, far below the market level. A supplier said that the demand for imported bleached softwood pulp has been weak for several months. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remains at $680 - 700 per ton. Suzano has announced a $20 per ton increase in the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp orders in the Asian market for October, the third consecutive increase since August, and will also increase the price for the European and North American markets [28]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton, and the price of some natural - white offset paper is 4300 - 4550 yuan per ton, with a price decrease compared to the previous day. In Guangdong, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4600 - 4800 yuan per ton, and the price is stable compared to the previous day. In Beijing, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4800 - 4850 yuan per ton, and the price of some products has decreased. In Sichuan, the mainstream transaction price of high - white offset paper is 4900 yuan per ton, and the price is stable compared to the previous day [29][30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In August, Turkey's cotton imports were 78,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. Turkey's clothing export volume in August was $1.47 billion, a month - on - month flat and a year - on - year decrease of 9%. As of recently, the cotton processing work in Australia in the 25th season is nearly 90% complete. The October report of the Cotton Information Network has lowered the forecast of the new - season import volume and the ending inventory [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8744 | 111 | 1.29% | | Jujube 2601 | 11145 | 185 | 1.69% | | Sugar 2601 | 5496 | - 32 | - 0.58% | | Pulp 2511 | 4788 | - 16 | - 0.33% | | Cotton 2601 | 13325 | 30 | 0.23% | [31][32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5800 | 0 | - 740 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5650 | 0 | - 500 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 550 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14775 | 18 | - 797 | [38] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 431 | - 116 | - 147 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 235 | 255 | - 170 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 27 | 0 | 14 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 50 | 0 | 25 | Fluctuate within a range | Wait and see temporarily | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8867 | - 31 | - 1050 | | Pulp | 231693 | - 413 | - 173345 | | Cotton | 2942 | - 88 | - 1831 | [82] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis is provided, only relevant figures are mentioned.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5078, down 0.51% day - on - day and 4.44% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4788, down 0.33% day - on - day and 5.38% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5136, down 0.19% day - on - day and 3.60% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5520, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5050, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.71% week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Rizhao Beige was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [5]. - **Import Costs**: Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5]. - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the production of offset paper was 21.00 tons; copperplate paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.07 tons; white cardboard was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 10, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 262, with a quantile level of 0.913; the Silver Star basis was 732, with a quantile level of 0.926 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 10, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5]. Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Arauco in Chile offered coniferous pulp Silver Star at 700 dollars/ton in September; hardwood pulp Star at 540 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and beige pulp Venus at a flat 590 dollars/ton. Coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is basically stable, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 203.3 tons, a 7.9 - ton reduction from the previous period, a 3.7% decline, showing a de - stocking trend [5].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - Pulp futures contract 01 decreased by 0.59%, and the pulp market showed a low - level volatile adjustment. The downstream demand was weak, and the supply pressure of double - offset paper remained due to new capacity [7]. Group 4: Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5108 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5078 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [7]. - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4810 - 6600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5520 - 5550 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco's September offer: Coniferous pulp Yinxing was 700 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing was 540 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton from last month [7]. - August production and import data: The chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year. China's pulp import volume was 265.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [7]. - Inventory data: As of October 9, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 0.51% month - on - month [7]. - Downstream market: The enthusiasm of downstream paper mills to purchase pulp was low, and most maintained just - in - time purchases. The offer of double - offset paper still declined after the festival, and there was still supply pressure [7]. 2. Industry News - On October 10, the import of waste pulp attracted the attention of customs. Customs required importers to indicate the production process of recycled pulp in the customs declaration form from October 10, 2025 [8]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts were provided, including import softwood pulp spot price, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, etc., with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [14][16][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices (October 9, 2025)**: SP2601 is 5104, down 0.74% day - on - day and 3.63% week - on - week; SP2511 is 4804, down 0.62% day - on - day and 4.76% week - on - week; SP2505 is 5146, down 0.73% day - on - day and 3.13% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices (October 9, 2025)**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star is 5520, down 0.54% day - on - day and 2.30% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle is 5050, down 0.98% day - on - day and 2.88% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp is 4250, with 0.00% day - on - day change and 0.71% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star outer - disk quote is 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish outer - disk quote is 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus outer - disk quote is 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change. The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish is 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; that of Chilean Venus is 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; that of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in September 2025 [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed a downward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and cardboard fluctuated in September 2025, and the current demand for paper products remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 9, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 246, with a quantile level of 0.912; the Silver Star basis was 716, with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On October 9, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 201, with a quantile level of 0.31; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of repair. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are running weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 30, 2025, SP2601 was 5142 with a daily decrease of 0.62% and a weekly decrease of 2.47%; SP2511 was 4834 with a daily decrease of 0.90% and a weekly decrease of 3.47%; SP2505 was 5184 with a daily decrease of 0.58% and a weekly decrease of 1.97% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On September 30, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with a daily decrease of 0.89% and a weekly decrease of 1.77%; Russian Needle was 5100 with a daily decrease of 0.97% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.71% [5]. - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: The outer - disk quote for Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.78%; Japanese - origin was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, a monthly decrease of 6.88%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a 4.50% increase. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations, but the overall demand for paper products was basically stable, and the price of paper products had no obvious rebound [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease, showing a destocking trend [5]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 30, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 266 with a quantile level of 0.915; the Silver Star basis was 716 with a quantile level of 0.92 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On September 30, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 171 with a quantile level of 0.359; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.554 [5].

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, the inventory at pulp ports and the number of warehouse receipts have no obvious reduction, and pulp futures are oscillating. It is recommended to consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.79% day - on - day and 0.83% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5016, down 0.87% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5296, down 0.60% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In September 2025, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; the offer price of a certain unnamed variety was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5] - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, paper product prices have no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 26, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 184, with a quantile level of 0.897; the Silver Star basis was 634, with a quantile level of 0.877 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 26, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5] 3.4 Strategy - Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and warehouse receipt numbers have no obvious reduction, with pulp futures oscillating [6]