Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Paper Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, pulp prices are strong due to low warehouse receipt quantities and rising overseas November quotes. It is recommended to observe the cost digestion performance of downstream paper enterprises and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5486 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5534 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.87% [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4900 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5550 - 5580 yuan/ton [7] - Overseas quotes: Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quote for softwood pulp was raised by $20 [7] - Production and sales data: In September, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market also increased [7] - Inventory data: As of November 6, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.31% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port decreasing [7] - Downstream paper market: The performance of downstream base papers remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while other base papers mainly replenished inventory as needed. Tendering for offset paper publication was ongoing, but social demand was limited [7] 2. Industry News - During the 8th CIIE, the sub - forum "Promoting Green Trade Liberalization and Accelerating Global Green Transformation" of the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum was held. Zhai Jingli, vice - president of APP, was invited to attend and share the company's innovation exploration in technology and full - industry chain collaboration [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, prices and price differences of white cardboard and white board paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][18][24][25][27]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a pulp morning report released on November 14, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [1] Group 2: SP Main Contract Data - The closing price of the SP main contract on November 13, 2025, was 5534.00 [1] - The closing prices from November 7 - 13, 2025, were 5394.00, 5468.00, 5484.00, 5482.00, and 5534.00 respectively [1] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 661.50, 671.16, 672.85, 672.93, and 672.93 respectively [1] - The daily price changes were 0.48435%, 1.37189%, 0.29261%, - 0.03647%, and 0.94856% respectively [1] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on November 13, 2025, was 6, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 31 [1] Group 3: Import Profit Data - With a 13% VAT calculation and an exchange rate of 7.12, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion was - 145.57, for Canadian Lion was - 443.29, and for Chilean Yinxing was - 1.01 [2] - The port US - dollar prices were 780, 730, and 680 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6200, 5500, and 5540 respectively [2] Group 4: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From November 7 - 13, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively [2] - The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [2] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged from November 10 - 13, 2025 [2] Group 5: Pulp and Paper Profit Margin Estimates - From November 10 - 13, 2025, the estimated profit margins for double - offset paper were - 0.7226%, - 1.0753%, - 1.0753%, - 1.0753% respectively [2] - For double - copper paper, they were 12.4839%, 12.1935%, 12.1935%, 12.1935% respectively [2] - For white - card paper, they were - 7.9436%, - 8.1551%, - 8.1551%, - 8.1551% respectively [2] - For living paper, they were 5.2551%, 4.7968%, 4.7968%, 4.7968% respectively [2] Group 6: Pulp Price Spreads - From November 7 - 13, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price spread was 1240, 1185, 1180, 1165, 1165 respectively [2] - The softwood - natural price spread was 100, 125, 140, 140, 140 respectively [2] - The softwood - chemimechanical price spread was 1700, 1725, 1740, 1740, 1740 respectively [2] - The softwood - waste paper price spread was 3924, 3949, 3964, 3964, 3964 respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core View - In the short term, pulp prices are trending stronger due to low warrant quantities and rising overseas quotes in November. It is recommended to monitor the cost digestion performance of downstream paper mills and adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,482 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,870 - 6,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing quotation was 5,520 - 5,530 yuan/ton [7]. - Finnforest Metsa notified Chinese customers that the November quote for softwood pulp would be raised by $20. In September, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 8.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 3.8% and hardwood pulp up 11.8%. Shipments to the Chinese market continued to grow [7]. - As of November 6, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 2.31% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port decreasing [7]. - The performance of downstream base papers remained differentiated. The packaging paper market continued to be favorable, while other base papers mainly replenished inventory as needed. Tendering for offset paper publications was ongoing, but social demand was limited [7]. 2. Industry News - On November 12, during the 8th CIIE, the sub - forum "Promoting Green Trade Liberalization and Accelerating Global Green Transformation" of the 8th Hongqiao International Economic Forum was held. Zhai Jingli, Vice President of Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), was invited to attend and discuss with domestic and foreign political, business, academic, and research guests [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, inter - delivery spreads, warrant totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [14][16][18][25][26][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 contract, and the futures price may be priced based on Russian pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][10] - The overall demand for pulp remains weak, although white cardboard has shown a significant increase in both volume and price, and there have been frequent price increase letters for cultural paper, but whether the price increases can be implemented remains to be observed [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 10, 2025, SP2601 was 5468 with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 3.05%; SP2511 was 4870 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.66%; SP2605 was 5452 with a daily increase of 1.00% and a weekly increase of 1.98% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On November 10, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The domestic production of hardwood pulp in November 6, 2025 was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5] - **Demand**: In terms of finished paper production, on November 6, 2025, double - offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white cardboard was 35.70 tons [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 10, 2025, the basis of Russian pulp was 230 with a quantile level of 0.906; the basis of Silver Star was 630 with a quantile level of 0.873 [5] - **Import Profit**: On November 10, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp fundamentals have no significant improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26-year Russian needle pulp, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high-quality softwood pulp. The 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 7, 2025, SP2601 was 5394 with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 3.49%; SP2511 was 4872 with a daily decrease of 0.16% and a weekly increase of 0.54%; SP2605 was 5398 with a daily increase of 0.26% and a weekly increase of 2.62% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; Russian Needle was 5100 with no change; hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no change [5]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: In November 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% from the previous period; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% from August; hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% from August. The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decline. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [5][10]. - **Demand**: The production of offset paper on November 6, 2025, was 20.80 tons; coated paper was 8.50 tons; tissue paper was 28.36 tons; white cardboard was 35.70 tons. White cardboard showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, while cultural paper had frequent price - increase letters, but whether they can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand was still weak [5][10]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 7, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 228 with a quantile level of 0.905; Silver Star was 628 with a quantile level of 0.872 [5]. - **Import Profit**: On November 7, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.558 [5].

Core Insights - Uruguay's export value reached $11.356 billion in the first ten months of the year, marking a 4% year-on-year increase [2] Export Performance - Beef exports led the category, totaling $2.184 billion, with a significant 33% increase, primarily exported to the United States, China, the EU, Israel, and Brazil [2] - Pulp ranked second with $1.96 billion, experiencing a 9% decline due to maintenance shutdowns at a pulp mill operated by Fibria, mainly exported to China, the EU, the US, Turkey, and South Korea [2] - Soybean exports were third at $1.316 billion, reflecting a 16% increase, with major markets including China, Algeria, Egypt, the UK, and Brazil [2] Major Export Destinations - China emerged as the largest export destination for Uruguay, with exports valued at $3.047 billion, a 10% increase [2] - Brazil ranked second with $1.673 billion in exports, showing a 13% decline [2] - The EU was the third-largest destination, with exports amounting to $1.506 billion, a 1% increase [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The international oil price is expected to oscillate in the short - term but face continuous oversupply pressure in the medium - term. For oil, it is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand and a narrowing basis after the decline. [35] - The PTA market is expected to rise slightly, and the ethylene glycol market is expected to continue a slight rebound. [62] - The price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly, with cost support and weak supply - demand factors. [71] - The soda ash market is expected to see the futures price drop to near the recent low, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through the 1200 yuan/ton resistance level. [79] - The industrial silicon futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but there is strong resistance above. [101] - The polysilicon futures price will oscillate in a wide range, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - The pulp market will have a limited short - term rebound and is advisable for reverse arbitrage. [140] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: International oil prices oscillated this week with a narrowing amplitude. The market lacks short - term drivers and is expected to oscillate. Medium - term oversupply pressure persists. Operationally, try short - selling on rebounds. [7][8] - **Fundamental Changes**: US crude inventories increased, refinery inputs rose seasonally, and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ will stop increasing production in Q1 2026, but it's hard to reverse the oversupply. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the inventory accumulation rate is accelerating. [9][10][11] Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end (crude oil) lacks support. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the basis has narrowed after the decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [34][35] - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost end has mid - term oversupply pressure. The asphalt production capacity may increase slightly next week. Demand shows regional differentiation, with weak speculative demand. Factory and social inventories both decreased this week. [36][37][39] Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: Crude oil fundamentals are mixed, and PX is expected to oscillate strongly, supporting PTA costs. PTA is expected to rise slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to rebound slightly. [61][62] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption is stable in the short - term but has a weakening expectation. PTA supply may decrease, and its fundamentals are strong. Ethylene glycol has cost support and a rebound demand. [63][64][66] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The cost end supports the market, but supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The price may rise slightly. [71] - **Main Driving Forces**: Downstream consumption support is limited. The short - fiber industry's operation is stable, and supply is sufficient. Cost support is strong, but supply - demand factors drag down the price. [72][73][74] Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated weakly this week, with supply remaining high, demand weakening, and inventory slightly increasing. It is expected to drop further, and it is advisable to short - sell on rallies if it breaks through 1200 yuan/ton. [76][78][79] - **Market Conditions**: Supply is stable with a slight decline in production. Inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. Glass demand for soda ash is weakening, and exports decreased in September. [80][83][93] Industrial Silicon - **Futures Review and Outlook**: The futures price has been oscillating strongly recently. The main driving force is the seasonal production reduction in the southwest, but the supply - demand imbalance improvement is limited. The price may continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term with strong upper resistance. [101] - **Fundamental Overview**: The price of industrial silicon and its related products is stable. Inventory is slowly accumulating, and production is decreasing. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and other products is relatively stable. [102][103][105] Polysilicon - **Market Review and Outlook**: The price is weaker than other varieties this week. The supply - demand improvement drive is limited. The price will continue to be in a stalemate in the short - term and oscillate in a wide range. It is advisable to buy on dips in the range and wait for policy signals for breakthrough opportunities. [123] - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals**: The prices of main products in the industry are stable. Inventory has increased slightly. Production in the supply - end may decline in November, mid - stream demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. [124][125][126] Pulp - **Market Review and Outlook**: The futures price rebounded this week. Macro pressure has weakened, imports have decreased, and inventory has declined, but the industry profit improvement is limited. The short - term rebound space is limited, and reverse arbitrage is advisable. [139][140] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries in August increased. China's pulp imports decreased in October. Global and domestic pulp inventories have different trends. Downstream paper performance is still differentiated. [141][149][156]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for 2026 Russian needles, and the futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [11] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 6, 2025, SP2601 was 5368 with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 2.76%; SP2511 was 4880 with a daily decrease of 0.12% and a weekly increase of 0.91%; SP2605 was 5384 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 2.28% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500 with no daily or weekly change; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 with no daily or weekly change; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 with no daily or weekly change [6] - **Foreign Quotes and Import Costs**: The foreign quote of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars (down 2.86% month - on - month), and its import cost was 5559 (down 2.83% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars (up 3.92% month - on - month), and its import cost was 4344 (up 3.87% month - on - month); the foreign quote of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no month - on - month change, and its import cost was 4830 with no month - on - month change [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons (up 12.54% month - on - month), and that of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons (up 7.79% month - on - month). The domestic production of hardwood pulp on November 6, 2025, was 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.5 tons. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162, up 4.50% [6] - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 200.8 tons (a decrease of 5.3 tons from the previous period, a 2.6% decrease), and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.4 tons [6][11] - **Demand**: The production of offset paper was 20.80 tons, coated paper was 8.50 tons, tissue paper was 28.36 tons, and white board paper was 35.70 tons on November 6, 2025. White board paper showed an obvious increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper had frequent price increase letters, but overall demand was still weak [6][11] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 6, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 220 with a quantile level of 0.904; the Silver Star basis was 620 with a quantile level of 0.871 [6] - **Import Profit**: On November 6, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513; that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].