Investment Rating - The report indicates a continued decline in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4% in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a historically low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted towards sectors such as civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemicals, with significant increases in holdings for companies like China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology [2][3]. - The polyurethane and tire sectors have seen continuous reductions in holdings, particularly for Wanhua Chemical, due to declining core product prices and a drop in profitability [3][4]. - The report highlights a strong interest in new materials, particularly in the fiberglass sector, driven by high demand in AI applications [3][4]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation in the Chemical Industry - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trend since Q2 2022, with a significant drop from 8.5% in Q3 2021 to 4% in Q2 2025 [1][11]. Individual Stock Changes - Key stocks that received increased allocations include China National Materials, Guangdong Hongda, and Blue Sky Technology, while significant reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical [2][16]. - The top ten stocks by market value in the chemical sector saw a decrease in concentration, with the top 15 companies holding a combined market value of 33.2 billion yuan, down 1.5 percentage points [14][15]. Industry Trends - The civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, and fluorochemical sectors are gaining attention, with the civil explosives sector benefiting from ongoing supply-side reforms and increased demand in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [3][4]. - The potassium fertilizer market is supported by significant price increases in contracts signed in mid-June, while fluorochemicals are experiencing price rises due to quota implementations [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with fundamental support, such as potassium fertilizers and fluorochemicals, while also highlighting the importance of domestic demand in the civil explosives sector amid global trade uncertainties [4][5]. - New materials, particularly those related to AI applications, are recommended for investment consideration, alongside traditional cyclical sectors showing positive supply-side changes [4][5].

Summary of TDI and MDI Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the TDI (Toluene Diisocyanate) and MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) industries, highlighting recent price trends and market dynamics. Key Points TDI Price Surge - TDI prices have increased significantly from approximately 9,000 CNY at the beginning of the year to around 12,500 CNY before a recent explosion incident, with current transaction prices exceeding 18,000 CNY, and quotes reaching as high as 20,000 CNY. However, large volume transactions are around 17,000 CNY and continue to rise [1][2][3] - The market tightness is exacerbated by maintenance at Wanhua's facilities in Fujian and Yantai, leading to limited supply [1][2] MDI Price Trends - MDI prices have also seen an increase, with aggregated MDI prices fluctuating between 14,000 CNY and 15,000 CNY earlier this year. Recent price adjustments due to upstream control and recovering demand have pushed prices to about 15,500 CNY for Juhua MDI and around 17,000 CNY for Covestro's pure MDI [1][3][4] - Wanhua announced a reduction in supply before the end of the month, further driving prices up [3] Market Outlook - The TDI market is expected to remain tight in the coming months, with anticipated demand increases in August. If supply does not significantly increase, prices may stay high, although whether mainstream transaction prices can reach 20,000 CNY remains uncertain [1][4] - For MDI, while there is potential for price increases, the extent is expected to be limited due to larger production capacity and sufficient profit margins [4] Inventory and Supply Chain Analysis - Current TDI factory inventory is approximately 12,000 tons, which is considered moderate historically. The lack of stockpiling by downstream channels has led to panic buying, driving prices up rapidly [2][9] - The TDI price increase is viewed as a short-term phenomenon, with current prices around 16,000 CNY being acceptable to downstream buyers. However, prices above 22,000 CNY may be challenging to sustain [2][12] Impact of Maintenance and External Factors - Wanhua's Hungarian facility is undergoing maintenance for 30 days, which will further tighten global supply and impact domestic pricing. This, combined with maintenance at other facilities, is likely to keep the TDI and MDI markets under pressure [5][18] - The explosion at a facility in Germany has delayed recovery efforts, potentially extending the timeline for supply normalization [2][8] Export Dynamics - Domestic demand has been weak, prompting an increase in exports to alleviate pressure on the domestic market. This includes targeting markets in Russia, Central Asia, and Turkey [10] - Wanhua's exports to North America have been significantly affected by trade tensions, with exports largely halted in May but showing signs of recovery [11] Profitability and Cost Analysis - Current TDI market prices allow domestic manufacturers to achieve net profit margins of 50% to 60%, while overseas manufacturers face lower margins due to higher operational costs [15] - MDI production costs are estimated to be around 10,000 CNY, with current transaction prices providing a healthy profit margin [21] Regulatory Environment - The ongoing anti-dumping investigation by the U.S. against Chinese MDI could impact export strategies, with companies likely to reduce shipments to North America to mitigate risks [22] Industry Response to Market Conditions - The industry is responding to "anti-involution" policies by raising prices, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [23] Conclusion - The TDI and MDI markets are experiencing significant price fluctuations due to supply chain disruptions, maintenance activities, and changing demand dynamics. The outlook remains cautious, with potential for continued price increases but also challenges in sustaining high price levels in the long term.

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is expected to experience a sector-wide recovery in the third quarter due to intensive policies and industry catalysts [1] Investment Directions - Focus on anti-involution and equipment upgrades, with recommendations to pay attention to organic silicon, petrochemical industry chain, polyurethane, and tires [1] - Industry synergy and export arbitrage are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] - Chemical products related to the墨脱水电站 (Motu Hydropower Station) are also identified as a key area for investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has outperformed the market, with the industry index rising by 1.8% from July 11 to July 18, compared to a 0.7% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][20] - The report highlights significant price increases in TDI, glyphosate, and glufosinate due to supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly in South America [6][31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved demand due to recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [17] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term investment in core assets as the profitability of chemical products has likely bottomed out, suggesting a recovery in valuations [17][18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index has shown a year-to-date increase of 10.8%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices by 5.4% and 4.5%, respectively [20][26] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 251 stocks rose while 162 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Shangwei New Materials (+148.8%) and Dongcai Technology (+33.2%) [29][30] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - A fire at Covestro's TDI plant in Germany has led to significant supply disruptions, creating opportunities for price increases in TDI [31][32] - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, reflecting a 7.16% month-over-month rise, driven by reduced inventory levels [33] - New regulations on glufosinate are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to price increases as the market adjusts [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in Q2 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery after a significant decline in prices, with supply disruptions increasing and clear bottom signals emerging. The industry is expected to see improved performance as demand gradually picks up [5][6]. - Key sub-sectors expected to show significant profit growth in H1 2025 include pesticides, fluorochemicals, civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, sweeteners, semiconductor manufacturing and packaging materials, display materials, and modified plastics [5]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on specific segments that are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, including traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas such as electronic materials and new energy materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical industry is projected to recover from previous downturns, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $68.03 per barrel, down 20% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter. Natural gas prices increased by 52% year-on-year but decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The report notes that the overall operating rate in the industry is expected to rise, with downstream demand gradually following suit, despite previous inventory levels being relatively high [5]. Key Company Forecasts - Major companies in the chemical sector are expected to report varying profit results for Q2 2025. For instance, Wanhua Chemical is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, while Baofeng Energy is expected to report a profit of 3 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, such as Juhua Co., which is expected to see a profit of 1.25 billion yuan, up 139% year-on-year, and Sanmei Co., projected to achieve 600 million yuan, up 162% year-on-year [5][9]. Sector-Specific Insights - The fluorochemical sector is highlighted for its ongoing positive trends, with the report suggesting that the adjustment of quota systems will not alter the long-term upward trajectory of refrigerants [7]. - The tire industry is also noted for potential recovery, with major players expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand dynamics despite facing challenges from trade tariffs [7]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the semiconductor materials sector, with companies like Yake Technology expected to report stable earnings. The domestic semiconductor industry is progressing towards greater self-sufficiency, which is anticipated to drive demand for related materials [7]. - New energy materials are also highlighted, with companies like Xinzhou Bang expected to see growth in profits, reflecting the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The polyurethane industry is at a critical juncture for green and low-carbon transformation, necessitating collaboration and innovation to achieve sustainability goals in the context of global carbon neutrality initiatives [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Innovations - The polyurethane industry must leverage standardization, innovation, and sustainable development as foundational elements to drive technological breakthroughs and application expansion [2]. - The integration of global innovation resources is essential for creating a more efficient and sustainable industrial ecosystem [2]. - The development of bio-based or recycled materials is a significant direction for the industry's green transformation, although challenges related to performance, stability, and cost need to be addressed [2][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Functional chain extenders play a crucial role in enhancing the performance of polyurethane materials, enabling broader applications in sectors like renewable energy [3]. - The large-scale production of carbon dioxide-based materials is pivotal for achieving carbon neutrality, with products showing a 30% reduction in carbon footprint compared to traditional materials [5]. - The development of CO2 polyols that fix 30% CO2 and exhibit a carbon footprint reduction of over 40% compared to polyether demonstrates significant advancements in material performance and cost-effectiveness [5][6]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Framework - Establishing a comprehensive standards and regulatory framework is vital for promoting sustainable development in the polyurethane industry [4]. - The lack of a recycling system in the Asia-Pacific region poses challenges, highlighting the need for policy coordination and industry collaboration to create a closed-loop system for polyurethane [4]. - China's polyurethane industry is accelerating efforts towards sustainable development and standardization, with initiatives like the formulation of group standards for chemical recycling [4]. Group 4: Circular Economy - Experts agree that a circular economy is key to overcoming resource and environmental constraints in the polyurethane industry, necessitating diverse technological routes for recycling and raw material substitution [5]. - The implementation of a "production—use—recycling—regeneration" closed-loop system is essential for sustainable practices within the industry [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly data briefing on the basic chemical industry, covering price and profit changes in various sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, and coal - chemical industries, as well as the performance of related listed companies [2][8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance** - The basic chemical index had a weekly increase of 0.8%, a monthly increase of 3.3%, a quarterly increase of 3.1%, and an annual increase of 15.9% as of July 4, 2025. Among related companies, Wanhua Chemical had a weekly increase of 1.3%, Baofeng Energy had a weekly decrease of 1.5%, Satellite Chemical had a weekly increase of 4.0%, and Huarun Hengsheng had a weekly increase of 1.0% [8] - In terms of profitability, Wanhua Chemical's estimated归母净利润 in 2025 is 13966 million yuan, Baofeng Energy's is 12360 million yuan, Satellite Chemical's is 7004 million yuan, and Huarun Hengsheng's is 4265 million yuan [8] - **Polyurethane Industry Chain** - The average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI this week were 16940, 15220, and 12000 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 100, - 430, and + 775 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 3718, 3061, and 897 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 162, - 116, and + 1177 yuan/ton [2][8] - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain** - Raw material prices: The average prices of ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha this week were 1198, 4071, 470, and 4108 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 25, - 118, + 0, and - 114 yuan/ton [2][8] - Product prices and profits: The average price of polyethylene was 7946 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polyethylene were 1365, 2091, and 189 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 50, - 19, and + 94 yuan/ton. The average price of polypropylene was 7120 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking to produce polypropylene were 56, 1742, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 94, - 11, and + 101 yuan/ton [2] - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain** - The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid this week were 2242, 1797, 4020, and 2349 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 28, - 5, + 60, and - 32 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits were 352, 144, - 186, and 6 yuan/ton, with week - on - week changes of + 16, - 12, + 28, and + 2 yuan/ton [2][10] 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trend** - No detailed content provided in the given text - **2.2 Polyurethane Plate** - Analyzes the price and profit trends of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI [2][8] - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate** - Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane,动力煤, and naphtha, as well as the profit situations of different production processes for polyethylene and polypropylene [2][8] - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Plate** - Covers the price and profit trends of coal - chemical products such as synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid [2][10]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a draft announcement to prohibit the use of HCFC-141b as a foaming agent in the production of polyurethane products, with specific timelines for compliance [1][2] - The prohibition will take effect in two phases: first for certain polyurethane products starting January 1, 2026, and then for spray polyurethane foam products starting July 1, 2026 [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Prohibition Timeline** - From January 1, 2026, the production of combination polyether and polyurethane products using HCFC-141b as a foaming agent will be banned, excluding spray polyurethane foam products [1] - From July 1, 2026, the production of spray polyurethane foam products using HCFC-141b will be prohibited [2] - **Product Definition** - Spray polyurethane foam products are defined as polyurethane foam materials that are sprayed on-site and possess thermal insulation and waterproof functions, as specified in the attached standards [2] - **Enforcement and Compliance** - Environmental authorities at all levels are tasked with ensuring that companies comply with the new regulations and effectively eliminate HCFC-141b from the polyurethane foam industry [2] - Companies that violate these regulations by using HCFC-141b will face legal penalties from environmental authorities in conjunction with relevant departments [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently in a downcycle, with recent safety incidents leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical projects. Leading companies with better safety management and advanced production technologies are expected to benefit from stable production amidst supply constraints [2][3] - The recent suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park in Shandong due to a major safety incident will impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates, leading to price increases in the market [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to maintain long-term value [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a downturn, with safety incidents prompting tighter regulations on high-risk projects. Leading firms are likely to benefit from their superior safety protocols and production capabilities [2] Recent Developments - A significant safety accident at Shandong Youdao Chemical has led to the suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates. This has resulted in a strong cost support for chlorantraniliprole, with market prices reaching 305,000 CNY per ton as of June 20 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in chlorantraniliprole, such as Lier Chemical, and those with K amine, like Lianhua Technology. It also suggests looking at competitors of chlorantraniliprole, such as Yangnong Chemical [1][2] - For the upstream oil and gas sector, companies like China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of key chemical products, noting significant increases in diesel and Brent crude oil prices, which rose by 10.97% and 10.58% respectively over the past week [18][19] Sub-industry Dynamics - The report highlights various sub-industries, including the polyester market, which is experiencing price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes. The polyurethane market is facing weak domestic demand, while the titanium dioxide sector is seeing supply constraints due to structural adjustments [21][22]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 14th this week, with a slight decline of -0.01%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.24 percentage points and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 0.21 percentage points [3][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of divergence in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The chemical sector's performance for the week of June 9-13, 2025, showed a slight decline of -0.01%, ranking 14th among sectors [3][22]. - The top three performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.5%), and agriculture (+1.62%) [22]. 2. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the shift in energy structure [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for refrigerants is anticipated to lead to a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and value, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8]. - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter raw materials like ethane and propane [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to China [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12]. 3. Company Performance - The top three performing chemical stocks this week were Jinjis Co. (+53.3%), Suzhou Longjie (+18.5%), and Akali (+16.7%) [28]. - The companies to watch in the synthetic biology sector include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [4]. - Key players in the refrigerant market include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [5]. - In the electronic specialty gases sector, companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are recommended [6][8]. - For light hydrocarbon chemicals, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player [8]. - In the COC polymer space, Akali is noted for its potential breakthroughs [9]. - In the potash fertilizer sector, companies such as Yaji International and Salt Lake Co. are recommended [10]. - For MDI, Wanhua Chemical is a key focus due to its significant market share [12].