Market Overview - A total of 77 stocks hit the daily limit up in the A-share market, with 63 stocks hitting the limit after excluding 14 ST stocks, resulting in an overall limit-up rate of 75.49% [1] Stock Performance - The highest limit-up order volume was for Tongling Nonferrous Metals, with 833,800 hands; followed by China Shipbuilding Industry, Zhong An Technology, and Beiwai Technology with limit-up orders of 646,600 hands, 288,300 hands, and 230,000 hands respectively [2] - In terms of limit-up order funds, 25 stocks had order amounts exceeding 100 million yuan, with Beijiajie, Changcheng Military Industry, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals leading at 506 million yuan, 346 million yuan, and 336 million yuan respectively [3] Industry Highlights Military Industry - Key stocks include Jieqiang Equipment, North China Long, China Shipbuilding Industry, and Changcheng Military Industry, focusing on military applications and equipment [4][5] - Jieqiang Equipment's products are widely used in military, environmental protection, and emergency response sectors [4] - North China Long specializes in military vehicle equipment, emphasizing non-metal composite materials [4] Robotics - Notable stocks include Zhongdali De, Guoji Jinggong, Bojie Co., and Haosen Intelligent, which are involved in the production of core components for industrial automation and robotics [6] - Zhongdali De has developed an integrated product structure around reducers, motors, and drives [6] Liquid Cooling Servers - Key stocks include Rihai Intelligent, Feilong Co., and Kexin Innovation Source, focusing on liquid cooling solutions for data centers [9][10] - Feilong Co. reported liquid cooling business revenue exceeding 40 million yuan in the first half of 2025, establishing partnerships with over 40 leading companies [9] Institutional Activity - Institutional net purchases for Tongling Nonferrous Metals exceeded 100 million yuan, with significant net buying also seen in China Shipbuilding Industry and Dongfang Jinggong [11][12] - Specific institutional purchases included 101 million yuan for Tongling Nonferrous Metals and 88.39 million yuan for Chengyi Pharmaceutical [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated at a low level, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The cost - support logic of tight copper ore supply for copper prices remains. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down to some extent, while the demand is in the off - season but the consumption expectation is gradually improving. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,280 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,679 dollars/ton, up 40.5 dollars. The spread between the main contracts of different months was - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 158,574 lots, down 1,292 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was 3,729 lots, up 3,435 lots. The LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 72,543 tons, down 880 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,000 tons, down 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 20,346 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 78,350 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 78,360 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 58 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 70 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 67.32 dollars/ton, down 14.59 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 42.09 dollars/kiloton, up 0.54 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,000 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,700 yuan/metal ton, up 280 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 480,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, down 55,090 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,300 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 1.185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.1%, down 1.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.11%, down 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.05%, down 0.0046 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, up 0.0229 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June shrank by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion, the lowest since September 2023. The total import value decreased by 3.7%, and consumer goods imports dropped to the lowest since September 2020 [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank encourage long - term funds to focus on future - oriented industries and strengthen medium - and long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction [2]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025, expecting 24.35 million passenger car retail sales, a 6% year - on - year increase [2]. - The State Council executive meeting proposed consumer and service - industry loan discount policies, and major banks have responded positively. At least three regions have implemented consumer loan discount policies with a discount rate of about 1.5% [2]. - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced that the logistics industry prosperity index in July was 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month, indicating that the logistics business volume continued to expand but at a slower pace [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].

Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in the international copper trading logic due to changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the exemption of certain copper imports from tariffs, which has led to a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, COMEX copper prices dropped over 18%, while previously, the anticipation of tariffs had caused a 17% increase in prices on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, driven by expectations of tariffs, but this momentum is expected to weaken post-policy implementation [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the narrowing price gap between COMEX and LME copper prices is likely to occur, primarily through a significant drop in COMEX prices, while LME prices remain relatively stable [2][3] - The current market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with domestic refined copper facing oversupply, and the expectation of lower copper prices due to reduced demand from end-users [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of cooling, with U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data indicating potential economic slowdown, which may further pressure copper prices [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic anti - involution and key industry stability - growth policies initially drove up copper prices, but later macro - sentiment cooled, and the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products imposed by the Trump administration on August 1st, along with the Fed's hawkish stance, put pressure on copper prices [6][87]. - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with low processing fees and high domestic smelter output. Low inventories support copper prices, but terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased significantly, and there is still downward pressure on copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic policies and the weakening of the US dollar initially boosted copper prices, but later, the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment, the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the Fed's hawkish stance led to a decline in copper prices. The sharp drop in US copper by over 20% also drove down Shanghai and London copper prices [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation showed a moderate increase in June. The CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but the poor non - farm data increased the probability of a rate cut this year [12][13]. - The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range in July, with the ISM manufacturing index at 48, lower than expected. The Markit manufacturing PMI hit a new low since December last year, while the service PMI reached a new high. The US dollar index first weakened and then strengthened in July, putting pressure on commodity prices [15]. Domestic Macroeconomy - China's CPI turned positive in June, rising 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a 14 - month high. The PPI decline widened to 3.6%. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged in July. From January to June, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [22]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, indicating that overall business activities were still expanding. From January to June, China's fixed - asset investment increased by more than 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - From January to May, the global copper concentrate production capacity was 12.105 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the production was 9.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.27%. The copper production in Chile and Peru from January to May was 323,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% [31]. Smelting - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the conflict between mines and smelters persists. As of August 1st, the spot smelting fee (TC) for copper concentrates was - 42 dollars per ton, and the processing fee has been at a historical low [33]. Refined Copper - In June, the utilization rate of copper production capacity increased to 82.69%, and the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. In July, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong, partially offsetting the losses at the smelting end [37]. Import and Export - In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11%. As of July 31st, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.11, and the import profit was negative [38]. Scrap Copper - In June, domestic scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.49% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.06%. In July, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed [42]. Processing - In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 67.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points, but it increased to 71.73% as of August 1st. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in June was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 3.69% [44][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to June, China's power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In June, the cumulative new installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power continued to grow, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [50]. - In June, the real estate completion area decreased by 14.8% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year. The real estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down copper demand [53]. - In June, China's automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.234 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.39%. The new - energy vehicle market maintains high - level development [59]. - In June, the production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners maintained a certain growth rate, and the domestic "Two New" policies are expected to support the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [61]. Inventory - As of August 1st, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 72,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.24%. As of July 28th, the domestic social copper inventory was 120,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.48%. The global visible copper inventory has rebounded from a low level [63][66]. Premium and Discount - In July, the domestic spot premium first rose and then fell. After the US copper tariff was implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory increased, and the LME copper spot/3 - month changed from a premium to a discount [68][69]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - In July, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 83,728.74 lots. As of August 1st, the Shanghai copper position was 176,193 lots, a decrease of 21.34% from the beginning of the month. The net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased significantly [79]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to continue its short - term downward oscillation trend, with support at the 77,600 level. The reference range for copper prices in August is expected to be between 77,000 and 80,000 [83]. 5. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the weak US manufacturing PMI and poor non - farm payroll data increase the probability of a rate cut this year. The Trump administration's 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment put pressure on copper prices [87]. - Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and low inventories support copper prices, but the off - season terminal consumption and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased, and there is still downward pressure on Shanghai and London copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - On July 30, the copper futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeted by 20% in one day due to the unexpected tariff announcement, following a period of rising prices [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by market speculation about the tariffs [2]. - The announcement led to a surge in COMEX copper inventory, which increased to 232,000 tons, up 21,900 tons year-on-year, as traders rushed to import refined copper [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, consuming approximately 1.6 million tons of refined copper in 2024, with a significant portion imported from Chile and Canada [6]. - The U.S. has a low participation rate in the global copper supply chain, accounting for only 5.1% of copper ore production and 3.3% of refined copper production [6]. - The U.S. government is considering a licensing system for exporting high-quality copper scrap and aims to increase domestic production of copper raw materials by requiring a certain percentage to be sold domestically by 2027 [6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the current excess inventory in the U.S. market will suppress COMEX copper prices, while concerns about potential inventory outflows could also impact LME copper prices [3][5]. - Despite the short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains optimistic due to ongoing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][5]. - The potential for future tariffs on refined copper remains, with suggestions for a 15% tariff starting in 2027, which could further complicate the domestic copper industry's development [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - **Tariff Policy**: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - **Domestic Economy**: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - **Policy Impact on Supply and Demand**: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - **Real Estate Sector**: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]

1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper market has a weak current demand but an improving outlook. The fundamentals suggest a stage of gradually decreasing supply growth and temporarily weak demand, with positive expectations [4]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains due to tight copper ore supply, and the supply of refined copper in China may slow down. On the demand side, it is expected to gradually improve from the off - season to the peak season, with external demand weakening and internal demand being weak in the short - term and gradually improving in the long - term [4]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Copper main contract had a weekly line that was oscillating weakly, with a weekly increase/decrease of - 1.07% and an amplitude of 1.7%. The closing price of the main contract as of this week was 78,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and disposable income remained flat in June after declining in May [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing and comprehensive PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC fee for copper concentrates is still in the negative range, and domestic port inventories are continuously decreasing. The supply of refined copper in China may slow down due to policy guidance on the non - ferrous industry's production capacity and tight raw material supply. The downstream copper processing is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve in the future. In August, the US exempted copper raw materials from tariffs, but still imposed high tariffs on copper products, so external demand is expected to weaken [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai Copper main contract was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from the previous week. The main contract price was 78,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 13,159 lots from the previous week [9]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 1, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: As of August 1, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Copper was 3,657 lots, a decrease of 3,030 lots from the previous week [21]. - **Option Volatility**: As of August 1, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the Shanghai Copper main contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai Copper option open interest was 0.8671, an increase of 0.2260 from the previous week [26]. 3.3. Industrial Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Raw Material Prices**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate price in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3497 million tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from May, a decline of 1.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. As of the latest data this week, the refined - scrap copper price difference (including tax) was 936.46 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340.74 yuan/ton from the previous week [34]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of May 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 2,006 thousand tons, an increase of 97 thousand tons from April, an increase of 5.08%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.2%, an increase of 1.1% from April. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 421,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from the previous week [39]. 3.3.2. Supply - side - **Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.43%. As of May 2025, the global monthly output of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, an increase of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [42]. - **Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 337,042.568 tons, an increase of 44,348.26 tons from May, an increase of 15.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.23%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 774.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 500.58 yuan/ton from the previous week [49][50]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory increased by 10,800 tons from the previous week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 7,096 tons from the previous week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,216 tons from the previous week. The total social inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the previous week [53]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58]. - **Power and Appliance**: As of June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction and power source construction increased by 14.6% and 5.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% year - on - year respectively [62]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment was 466.5756 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611 thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [69]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of May 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 97 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of May 2025 was 84,200 tons [74].