Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys) - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Research Team: Hongyuan Futures Metal Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The US tariff hikes increase global economic uncertainty, and the traditional consumption off - season leads to inventory accumulation expectations, putting pressure on aluminum prices [1] - For alumina, although the cost is pushed up by the rising price of imported bauxite from Guinea, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price may be cautiously weak - For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, the weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and prices may still have room to fall 3. Summary by Category Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic bauxite supply is expected to be loose in August, with production and imports likely to increase. China's alumina production in August may increase month - on - month, and the surplus of alumina compared to electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. Imports may decrease and exports may increase in August, and port inventories have decreased [3][18][27] - **Price and cost**: The price of imported bauxite from Guinea has risen, pushing up production costs. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,880 yuan/ton. The price of alumina may be cautiously weak. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,100 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3][24] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase month - on - month due to the resumption and new production of some projects. Imports in August may also increase. The operating rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has declined, and the demand is weak [4][60] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of Shanghai aluminum may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the resistance level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [4] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished product inventory may decrease. The import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloys in August may decrease [6][71][84] - **Price and cost**: The weak US job market raises the expectation of Fed rate cuts, but domestic recycled aluminum alloy production is still in the red, and the traditional consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand. The price of aluminum alloys may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold previous short positions cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 19,500 - 19,700 and the resistance level around 20,000 - 20,300 [6] - **Investment strategy**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] Basis and Spread - **Alumina**: The basis and monthly spread are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions on the alumina basis cautiously [11] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The basis of Shanghai aluminum is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum [39] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys are positive and basically within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spread of cast aluminum alloys [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July, the Shanghai Aluminum futures have fluctuated, rising first and then falling, driven by sector resonance and cost - side logic. Alumina has experienced significant fluctuations under the so - called "anti - involution" drive, but the impact on the alumina industry is limited. Cast aluminum alloy's trend is similar to that of Shanghai Aluminum, slightly stronger, with a slightly upward - shifted center of gravity after July's fluctuations. Overall, except for alumina, the aluminum industry chain has been relatively calm and deviated from the fundamentals [94]. - Fundamentally, the upstream of the industry chain remains relatively loose. Ore imports have increased, and domestic mine activities are relatively few. Alumina production capacity utilization is high, and new capacity is gradually being put into operation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have high operating capacity due to cost reduction and profit increase. The downstream processing industry shows a slack - season performance, but profiles, primary alloys, and cable sectors are relatively strong. In the terminal market, State Grid orders in the first half of the year boosted the demand for aluminum cables, but now it's the seasonal slack season with reduced demand. In the third quarter, new centralized tenders are expected to stabilize and improve the situation. The end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the first half and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field have cooled the related industries, and it's hard to see improvement in the next 1 - 2 months. Other traditional demand terminals are relatively stable, with the growth of the automotive industry, especially new - energy vehicles, expected to slow down. The real - estate sector is still at the bottom, and the home - appliance industry shows resilience due to policy support. In August, the downstream aluminum processing industry is still in the slack season, and it's difficult for the operating rate to increase significantly in the short term. Low ingot volume in the industry leads to a continuous decline in inventory, and low inventory levels make price fluctuations more likely [94]. - In August, after the "anti - involution" cools down, the commodity market will adjust, and the non - ferrous sector, which has limited previous gains, will also be affected. Alumina will be most affected, and aluminum and aluminum alloy prices are also difficult to maintain at high levels. Attention should be paid to the warehouse - receipt level near the delivery date to prevent short - term price fluctuations. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 20,000 - 20,800; Alumina may return to around 3000, with a main operating range of 2900 - 3500; Cast aluminum alloy will also run weakly in the range of 19,500 - 20,200 [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Alumina**: The MA5 of the Alumina main - contract (SHFE 6273) is 3357.60, MA10 is 3326.40, MA20 is 3217.10, MA40 is 3067.30, and MA60 is 3041.18 [6]. - **Aluminum**: The MA5 of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract (SHFE 2214) is 20672.00, MA10 is 20681.50, MA20 is 20614.75, MA40 is 20499.25, and MA60 is 20337.83 [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The MA5 of the Aluminum Alloy main - contract (SHFE 6463) is 20073.00, MA10 is 20068.50, and MA20 is 19962.50 [10]. 2. Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume reached 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to May 2025, China's bauxite production was 22.017 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.38%. Due to environmental protection and resource depletion, domestic bauxite production has declined, and the degree of external dependence will increase in the long term, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by factors such as shipping costs and geopolitics [15]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. Since 2024, alumina production has shown a slight increase, and in 2025, with the resumption of production and new capacity, the growth rate has further increased, and it is expected to achieve double - digit growth for the whole year. As of July 25, 2025, the total alumina inventory (market + factory) was 1.7235 million tons, and it is expected to continue to rise slightly in the second half of the year [20][23]. 3. Middle - Stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was about 1.924 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 12.499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Since 2024, primary aluminum imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is relatively stable with a slight increase. Since 2024, the operating capacity has continued to grow due to sufficient hydropower in the southwest and new capacity investment. In 2025, with the decline in alumina prices and the increase in profits, the operating capacity has maintained a high - level operation [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; from January to June, the cumulative production was 22.379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.57% year - on - year and decreased by 3.23% month - on - month. It is expected that the aluminum - water ratio will decline in July [35]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: As of July 29, 2025, the full cost of self - supplied power aluminum plants is about 14,227 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 652 yuan/ton; the full cost of grid - connected power aluminum plants is about 18,455 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of 2,124 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [39]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: In 2024, the aluminum ingot inventory change was small. In 2025, the inventory first decreased and then increased. Now it has entered the slack season and is in the process of slight inventory accumulation [42]. 4. Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the overall operating rate of the aluminum processing industry has been low, except for the aluminum foil and aluminum plate - strip sectors with an operating rate of 70% - 90%. In 2025, after the Spring Festival, the resumption of work varied. In the slack season, the operating rate of each sector declined, but the profile sector showed a slight increase [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In June 2025, the import volume of un - wrought aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 20.2%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 542,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. The export volume in June was 25,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 66%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 120,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [53]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: From January to June 2025, China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production reached 3.5593 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.65% [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has increased, especially after entering the slack season in May, and it is expected to continue to rise in the short term [59]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products; from January to June, the cumulative export volume was 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Affected by global trade barriers and tariffs, aluminum product exports may continue to decline [63]. 5. Industrial Chain Terminals - **Real Estate**: In the first half of 2025, real - estate investment, sales area, and new - construction area all declined. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, and it will take time to recover [69][72]. - **Automobile**: In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The development of new - energy vehicles is rapid, but there is an "anti - involution" expectation, and the growth rate may slow down [75]. - **Home Appliance**: In June 2025, the production of air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increased to varying degrees. However, since 2025, the growth rate of the three major home appliances has slowed down, and it is expected to weaken further in the second half of the year [78]. - **Power Grid Investment**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China plans to invest 388 billion yuan in 38 UHV projects. In 2025, at least 2 AC and 4 DC UHV lines will start construction. From January to June, the national power grid project investment was 254 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.7%, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth [81]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 212.2 GW, a year - on - year increase of 107%. It is expected that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 250 GW in 2025, and the global new installed capacity will reach about 580 GW. After the end of the first - half rush - installation and the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic field, the industry has cooled down [84]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In June 2025, China imported 156,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The import of scrap aluminum is expected to remain strong due to the large price difference between refined and scrap aluminum [87]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance - **Alumina**: In 2025, the supply of alumina has become more relaxed, and it is expected to maintain this state in the second half of the year [88]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In 2025, the supply - demand situation of electrolytic aluminum has deteriorated compared with 2024, and the degree of oversupply is expected to be more serious [89]. 7. Aluminum Price Seasonal Analysis Based on a 5 - year statistics up to 2025, the expected return of aluminum price from January 1st to December 31st is 1.15%, with 3 times of price increase and 2 times of price decrease. The maximum amplitude is 9.05%, the minimum amplitude is 4.63%, and the average amplitude is 6.56% [92].

2024年1至12月份，焦作万方的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"我们也深陷残酷价格战"！德资巨头中国区高管警告：智驾绝不能免费， 否则会给全行业带来灾难 （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，焦作万方（SZ 000612，最新价：8.47元）8月1日晚间发布公告称，公司第九届第二十一 次董事会会议于2025年8月1日采取现场方式召开。会议审议了《关于选举公司第十届董事会非独立董事 的议案》等文件。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten due to the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine - right suspension, which will support the bottom of the ore price. However, the significant increase in bauxite imports from January to July (+34%), high port inventories, and the resumption of production of suspended mines limit the upside space of imported bauxite prices, and the price will mainly remain in the bottom - range operation [7][57]. - The stimulus of the "anti - involution" policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. If relevant policies do not cover this industry, the alumina price will still be under pressure. The alumina futures price rose rapidly this month, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window and attracting demand for spot delivery products. But the window will close again at the end of the month, weakening the support for the spot. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [7][57]. - In the cast - aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap - aluminum supply, cast - aluminum will continue to fluctuate within a range following the Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining a low - level negative spread structure between AD - AL [7][59]. - At the electrolytic - aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, with the real - estate side continuing to drag down and a slight decline in demand in the photovoltaic field. However, there is still support from the new - energy vehicle and cable sectors. Considering that August is the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, if the aluminum price continues to fall and the peak season approaches, there may be a certain increase in demand [7][59]. - Overall, the direct impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the aluminum industry is limited, and it mainly causes fluctuations in the market due to changes in sentiment. After the digestion of policy - expectation sentiment, the aluminum price trend will return to the fundamentals. In August, as the off - season is more than half over and the end of the month will see the transition from the off - season to the peak season, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range in August being 20,000 - 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [7][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the overall operating center moving up compared to the previous month. The main increase was concentrated in the first and middle ten - days. Following the continuous repair of the macro - sentiment, the aluminum price followed the industrial - product sector and continued to run strongly. The index reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, but was significantly suppressed at the 21,000 - yuan integer mark. With the weakening of the macro - optimistic atmosphere and the cooling of market risk - preference sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum began to decline in the second half of July and continued to decline until the end of the month [9]. - Fundamentally, although July is the traditional consumption off - season, the aluminum - ingot inventory performance remained strong, staying below 500,000 tons. The inflection point of inventory accumulation was basically confirmed around the second half of the month, which provided impetus for the rise of the aluminum price. The import window remained closed during the month, and the import loss slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month, with a loss of about - 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Throughout the month, the Shanghai Aluminum index opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 20,230 yuan/ton, and closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the end of the previous month. As of the end of the month, the total open interest of the index was 591,000 lots, a decrease of 68,097 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 319,000 lots to 5.88 million lots compared to the end of the previous month. The London Aluminum opened at 2,595 US dollars/ton, reached a maximum of 2,664.5 US dollars/ton, a minimum of 2,555.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,562.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the end of the previous month. The open interest at the end of the month was 684,000 lots, a decrease of 11,404 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 34,039 lots to 377,000 lots compared to the end of the previous month [9]. 3.2 Supply - side of the Fundamentals 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply remained stable in July 2025. There was no significant change in supply, and there was no oversupply. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained flat compared to the previous month. For example, in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite with specific aluminum - silicon ratios and alumina contents remained unchanged [14]. - For imported bauxite, as of the end of the month, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 73.5 US dollars/ton, a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month; the average CIF price of Australian bauxite was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month. In June 2025, China imported 18.116 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 3.44% and a year - on - year increase of 36.21%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. In July, the domestic arrival of Guinea bauxite was still from before the rainy season in Guinea and was less affected by the mine - right revocation event, with a high shipment volume. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea will decline from August to October [15]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, as of July 31, the weighted average price of alumina in major regions was 3,252.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.8 yuan/ton or 4.42% compared to the end of the previous month. The prices in various domestic regions all increased. The overseas FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, and after conversion, it was about 3,347 yuan/ton at domestic ports, higher than the domestic price, and the alumina import window remained closed [20]. - In terms of production capacity and output, in July 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. As of the end of July, the built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the actual operating capacity increased by 2.00% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 81.6%. In August, the alumina price is still high, and the profitability of alumina plants is good. Only a few enterprises are expected to carry out routine maintenance, and the impact on production is limited. The operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina is expected to continue to increase slightly [21]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic - aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.05% and a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. As of the end of the month, the built - in production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 45.69 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. In August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and the second - phase replacement project in Yunnan will be put into production and start outputting [28]. - In terms of imports and exports, the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The import window remains closed, and domestic demand is weak. The enthusiasm of overseas suppliers to send goods to China has decreased, and the net import of electrolytic aluminum in July is expected to remain at a low level. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month, at a low level in the same period in the past three years. The inventory of aluminum rods in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 147,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month. In London, the aluminum - ingot inventory of the London Metal Exchange was 461,025 tons, an increase of 112,400 tons compared to the end of the previous month [40]. 3.3 Demand - side of the Fundamentals 3.3.1 Real - estate Sector - The real - estate industry's aluminum consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing completion stage, including new - house doors and windows, aluminum formwork, and curtain - wall decoration. From January to June, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume of real - estate all showed varying degrees of decline. In July, the performance of building profiles was still sluggish. Most enterprises reported a significant decrease in building - material orders, and some enterprises are transforming to industrial profiles. It is expected that the situation will remain sluggish in August [47][50][51]. 3.3.2 Automotive Sector - In January 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 2025 automobile trade - in program, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrapping and replacement subsidies. In the first half of 2025, the automobile trade - in policy continued to be effective, and the passenger - car market continued to perform well. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. The domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [54][55]. 3.4 Market Outlook - As mentioned above, in August, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range from 20,000 to 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be weak first and then strong in August. The price of aluminum ore is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if certain conditions are met. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained by the capacity ceiling, and the demand in the downstream industry is in a mixed situation. The market is in a state of intense long - short game in the short - term, but the supply - demand situation in August is relatively optimistic [5][11][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of aluminum prices. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season as negative factors, the short - term price is under pressure. However, August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, and with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may be weak first and then strong. It is advisable to consider mid - line long positions below 2000 yuan [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to enter a wide - range oscillation stage, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract seen in the range of 20200 - 20900, and it was recommended to wait and see [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may be weak first and then strong in August. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is appropriate for now [9]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider appropriately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [10]. 3.3 Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: In the short - term, the supply of domestic aluminum ore is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported ore at ports and alumina plants is high, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious in the short - term. The price is expected to remain stable in the third quarter and may turn stronger in the fourth quarter if the shipment from Guinea remains low and domestic inventory continues to decline [11]. - **Alumina Market**: In July, the operating capacity of national metallurgical alumina remained stable at about 88.27 million tons per year. There are new capacity projects in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity may reach a new high in the first half of the year. Attention should be paid to the rainy season in Guinea and the operating capacity of alumina under the anti - involution situation [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: With the repair of smelting profits, some production capacity that was cut last year has gradually resumed. The current capacity utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum has exceeded 95%, and new capacity is limited due to the capacity ceiling [11]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. Since February 2025, domestic aluminum exports have been growing, and although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, the overall performance is resilient [11]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased slightly. Different sectors have different situations. For example, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles and aluminum foil is expected to remain low, while the start - up rate of aluminum cables may recover in August [13]. - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of aluminum ingots is 512,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 35% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,800 tons, a decrease of about 10% from last week and an increase of about 5% from last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July [13]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3200 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Expectation**: The proportion of alumina production lines over 10 years old is about 45%. There is a strong expectation of capacity withdrawal under the anti - involution background, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze. However, there is no clear policy on alumina capacity clearance in the high - quality development plan of the aluminum industry from 2025 - 2027, and the supply side has no obvious constraints for now. The short - term long - short game is intense [14]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industry links have changed slightly. For example, the price of alumina has risen and then fallen, the price of coal has continued to rise steadily, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has risen and then fallen, hitting resistance at the 21,000 level [15][16]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore at ports has increased, the inventory of alumina has increased slightly, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase [18][20]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The cash cost of the alumina industry is about 2600 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3200 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1700 yuan/ton [22]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% compared with last week, and is 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Different sectors have different trends, and the overall start - up rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [26][27]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The overall price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern, but the strength has weakened compared with last month [31]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1430 yuan/ton this week, wider than last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the price of electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 11 weeks. Since May, the short side has reduced positions overall, and the long side has increased positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has decreased slightly. Both the long and short sides have increased positions slightly in the past week. The net long position of financial speculative funds has increased first and then decreased, remaining at the same level as last week. The net short position of funds from mid - downstream enterprises has decreased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].

回归现实基本面， 期价大幅回落 氧化铝周报 2025/08/02 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 周度评估 06 库存 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 周度评估 周度要点小结 | 氧化铝基本面评 估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 进口盈亏 | 冶炼利润 | 矿端 | 供给端 | 需求端 | 库存 | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | 铝土矿6月产量： | | 电解铝6月运 | SHFE：0.66万 | | 数据 | 53 | -105 | 354 | 519万吨 | 周产量： | 行产能： | 吨 | | | | | | 铝土矿6月进口量： | 184.7万吨 | 4403万吨 | 社库：408.2万 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The US counter - tariff has been implemented, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations are not beyond expectations, and the domestic "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down. Black - series commodities have fluctuated and declined, with a slightly weak sentiment. Domestically, the relatively low inventory of aluminum ingots supports aluminum prices. However, given the off - season for downstream demand and pressure on export demand, the upside for aluminum prices is limited. In the short term, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is expected to be between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 340,000 tons week - on - week to 544,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 2.6 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the domestic spot import loss of aluminum has shrunk [13]. - **Demand**: The weekly aluminum product operating rate continued to decline. The operating rates of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, profiles, and alloys all decreased, while the operating rate of aluminum rods increased slightly. The downstream is currently in the off - season, and the spot trading of aluminum remains weak. According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year; for refrigerators, it is 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; and for washing machines, it is 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.2% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum closed down 2.26% to 2,571 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Term Spread**: The month - on - month spread rebounded slightly [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The basis of aluminum ingots in major domestic regions fluctuated and stabilized [30]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Spread**: The East China spot was weak, while the Central China spot was strong [35]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME aluminum Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit declined to 3,367 yuan/ton [45]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 544,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 147,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The LME inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons due to LME warehousing [48][51][54]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: There is no specific description of price changes in the report. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [63]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price declined, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [68]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6%. Production increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity will remain high, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and rebounded. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points. It is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will rebound in August [79]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: The aluminum ingot outbound volume remained basically flat (as of the week ending July 28) [84]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In June, the operating rates of aluminum rods, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods all declined, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but was recently weak [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak. The current real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and photovoltaic installations have decreased significantly, and related demand is also under pressure [99]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 192,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has narrowed [102]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [13][108]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative import volume in the first six months was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative import volume of bauxite from January to June was 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export volume from January to June was 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina may decline due to increased supply, but high - cost capacity's full - cost range could be a theoretical support. If policies lead to a significant drop in the operating rate, the price may rise further. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [4][5][105] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Alumina**: If the new policy has no strong impact on alumina production or new capacity, the price may decline due to supply - demand surplus. The high - cost capacity's full - cost range (3000 - 3100 yuan) could be the theoretical support. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [4] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase. The demand in transportation and power electronics will drive consumption, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and real estate and household appliances drag. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: Alumina between 3000 - 3600 yuan; aluminum between 20200 - 21200 yuan. Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum is between 40 - 70. Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Second Part: Policy Expectations Expand Price Fluctuations, Focus on the Change of Alumina Fundamental Contradictions - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite prices are stable, and attention should be paid to non - seasonal impacts. In Guinea, although the rainy season affects shipments, the resumption of mining in some areas offsets the previous production reduction, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The import price of bauxite is expected to have limited rebound [8][10] - **Alumina Fundamentals**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina has increased. The operating capacity has reached a new high, while the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is small. The import volume of alumina may increase in the second half of the year. The theoretical profit of alumina plants is expected to expand in July. After the long - term contracts are replenished, pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts [20][24][29] - **Price Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the alumina price is expected to return to the fundamental logic. Wait for the policy to be implemented to assess its impact on alumina supply and price [36][42] 3.3 Third Part: The Influence of Fundamental Logic on Price is Expected to Increase, Focus on the Inventory Inflection Point in August - **Macro Influence on Aluminum Price**: The influence of the US tariff and domestic policies on aluminum prices is limited. The influence of macro factors on aluminum prices is expected to decline, and the focus should be on demand growth and inventory levels [44][49] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is still in progress. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase in 2026 - 2027 [50][55] - **Inventory Inflection Point**: The peak of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to be between 56 - 600,000 tons. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. LME aluminum has been accumulating inventory recently, but the basis has not shown a significant discount, indicating a tight supply - demand situation overseas [60][73] - **Terminal Consumption**: New energy, transportation, and power fields will drive aluminum demand, while real estate and household appliances will drag. The export of aluminum products is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the year [76][89][101] 3.4 Fourth Part: Outlook and Strategy Recommendation for the Future Market - **Alumina**: After the speculative sentiment fades, the price will return to the fundamental logic. If the policy has no strong impact on production or new capacity, the price may decline. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [105] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. The price is expected to rise after corrections [112]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite a significant decline in market sentiment this week, aluminum prices remained relatively resilient. During the off - season, the spot market's premium and discount were weak. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilization plan has no impact on the electrolytic aluminum supply side, but potential policy support for the consumption side should be monitored. Although social inventories are accumulating during the off - season, the expected increase is limited due to supply constraints. There is a need to be vigilant about the squeeze - out risk in the 08 contract. The post - decline correction after the anti - involution sentiment fades is an opportunity for long - term buying hedging [6]. - There are still issues with alumina warehouse receipts. The supply side continues to resume production due to profit incentives, and the current and expected surplus situation remains unchanged, with the social inventory accumulation rate increasing. The short - term surplus may be in transit and form warehouse receipts later, while the spot market remains in a tight - balance state [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with aluminum prices. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum remains tight, and the cost side supports prices. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [9]. 3. Key Data Summary Aluminum Spot - On July 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,670 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The East China aluminum spot premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount was - 180 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. Aluminum Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,585 yuan/ton, closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,570 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 125,168 lots, and the position was 261,363 lots [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 533,000 tons, a change of 2.3 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 51,217 tons, a change of - 1,857 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 460,350 tons, a change of 4,250 tons from the previous trading day. The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 43,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 63,600 tons [2][4]. Alumina Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,250 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,300 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,315 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 380 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On July 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,349 yuan/ton, closed at 3,326 yuan/ton, a change of 54 yuan/ton (1.65%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,286 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 567,566 lots, and the position was 148,574 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On July 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 19,600 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost of aluminum alloy was 20,078 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 278 yuan/ton [5]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [10]. - Arbitrage: Conduct long - short arbitrage on Shanghai aluminum and go long on AD11 while shorting AL11 [10].