晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：氧化铝受政策提振拉涨 铝锭小幅累库 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周沪铝震荡走强。宏观上市场预计 2026 年美联储将两次降息， 第一次可能在年中左右，市场猜测美国总统特朗普可能会任命一位鸽派的 美联储主席，这强化对更宽松货币政策的预期。国内受发改委发布的《大 力推动传统产业优化提升》的文章提振，市场普遍预测该政策将推动氧化 铝行业企业加速产业链一体化整合进程，倒逼缺乏铝土矿资源配套、能效 不达标或成本高企的中小产能氧化铝企业退出市场，氧化铝价格快速拉涨 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - situation shows that US Q3 GDP and consumption data strengthen the resilience of the US economy, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. A domestic NDRC article boosts the sentiment of the entire non - ferrous sector, creating a strong bullish atmosphere. Fundamentally, the new production capacity in China and Indonesia continues to increase supply, and the previous shipping issues in the northwest are resolved, leading to a small increase in supply. On the consumption side, due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices, the off - season for downstream production deepens. Aluminum ingot inventory increases by 17,000 tons to 617,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increases by 1,500 tons to 124,500 tons. Overall, domestic policy announcements and the strong copper price drive the metal sector. After the Christmas holiday, US data may affect Fed expectations and amplify market sentiment fluctuations. The aluminum market sees increasing supply and decreasing demand, with social inventory gradually accumulating. The fundamentals provide limited support for high aluminum prices, but in the short term, sentiment dominates, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [2][7]. - For cast aluminum, last week's aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%. Due to high costs for secondary aluminum enterprises, some regions reduced production due to profit decline, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental protection factors, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. On the consumption side, considering factors such as the subsidy policy roll - back in 2026 and pre - emptive consumption demand, the sustainability of new energy vehicle orders in the later stage is uncertain. The exchange inventory increases slightly by 298 tons to 70,000 tons. Overall, under the influence of strong aluminum prices and high scrap aluminum prices, the cost support is strong, but due to poor consumption expectations and high inventory pressure, the upward momentum is weak, and the cast aluminum market is expected to remain volatile [2][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Transaction Data - The SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price rises from $22,250 to $22,495 per ton, an increase of $245 [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increases from 519,600 tons to 521,050 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increases from 76,188 tons to 77,059 tons, an increase of 871 tons [4]. - The spot average price rises from 21,730 yuan/ton to 21,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the South China spot weekly average price is 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - In the US, Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate is 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, with strong consumer spending as the main driver. The core PCE price index rises 2.9%. In addition, US core capital goods orders and shipments in October both recover, while the consumer confidence index in December drops from 92.9 to 89.1 [5]. - The NDRC's article emphasizes strengthening management and layout optimization of industries such as alumina and copper smelting [5]. - The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry operating rate drops by 0.6% to 60.8% due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices [6]. - On December 25, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 617,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 124,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [6]. - The Friday spot price of cast aluminum alloy SMM is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday; Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price is 21,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, for electrolytic aluminum, sentiment is expected to drive prices to remain strong in the short term, while for cast aluminum, it is expected to remain volatile [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports are about 147,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative primary aluminum imports are about 2.358 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [10]. - Hydro Energi and Hafslund Kraft AS sign a new long - term power purchase agreement, with Hafslund supplying 1.75 TWh of electricity to Hydro from 2036 to 2040 [10]. - On December 22, the Mozambique's Confederation of Business Associations calls on the government to avoid the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant at all costs [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - third contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium and discount, and various inventory and price seasonal change charts [12][15][19][21][23][25][27][29].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the aluminum and alumina markets, focusing on supply-demand dynamics and price forecasts for 2026 [1][2][3][4][6][13]. Key Insights and Arguments Aluminum Market - The 2026 electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have limited production growth, with an overall increase of less than 2% due to capacity constraints and energy disruptions [2][12]. - Domestic production profits for electrolytic aluminum are anticipated to remain strong into 2026, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions [2][12]. - The domestic aluminum water ratio has increased, alleviating inventory pressure, despite a slight accumulation of spot inventory in Q4 [2][7]. Alumina Market - The alumina market is projected to remain oversupplied in 2026, with approximately 15 million tons of new domestic capacity and 7.5 million tons of overseas capacity expected [3][4]. - Prices for alumina are expected to fluctuate around cost levels, making it suitable for strategic allocation during price peaks [4][13]. Lithium Hydroxide Production Costs - The production costs of lithium hydroxide are significantly influenced by upstream resource availability, particularly from Guinea, where supply is expected to increase [5]. - Current market conditions suggest a potential decline in production costs for lithium hydroxide, with spot prices still in a bottoming phase [5]. Macroeconomic Impact on Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is closely following trends in precious metals, with expectations of price increases driven by anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [6][9][10]. - Demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage is becoming a crucial driver for non-ferrous metal consumption [8][12]. Additional Important Points - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum import window remains closed, primarily sourcing from Russian aluminum, with overall inventory pressures being manageable [7]. - The market is currently experiencing a shift in demand from traditional sectors like real estate to emerging sectors, which is expected to reshape the consumption structure of non-ferrous metals in the coming years [8][12]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a gradual increase, which may support non-ferrous metal prices in the next two years, despite current spot data indicating widening discounts [11]. Conclusion - The outlook for both electrolytic aluminum and alumina suggests a complex interplay of supply constraints, macroeconomic factors, and shifting demand patterns, indicating potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [2][3][6][13].

铝年报 铝价中枢有望稳步上 价中枢有望稳步上 移 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-12-26 中航期货 目录 01 后市 研判 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 | 几 | 为 | 继 | 国 | 面 | 铝 | 市 | 注 | 境 | 已 | 动、 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 端 | 点， | 关 | 号 | 环 | 氧 | 求 | 变 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 性 | 信 | 点 | 长 | 需 | 本 | 量。 | 重 | 的 | 动 | 增 | 成 | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] - Arbitrage: Neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the upward breakthrough of aluminum prices faces difficulties due to the approaching off - season of consumption, increased aluminum ingot arrivals, and expanding spot discounts. In the long term, overseas power costs may lead to potential production cuts, and with low domestic inventory and expected policy easing, the downside of aluminum prices is limited [7] - The alumina spot market price is on a downward trend, with the near - month basis narrowing. The supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and social inventory will continue to increase [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount is - 170 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,820 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 330 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount is - 265 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,275 yuan/ton, a change of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 22,060 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 229,349 lots, and the position was 290,474 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 617,000 tons, a change of 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 76,758 tons, a change of 322 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 521,050 tons, a change of 1,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On December 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,715 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,765 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 313 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,670 yuan/ton, closed at 2,646 yuan/ton, a change of - 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 0.71%. The highest price was 2,678 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,627 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 279,750 lots, and the position was 245,088 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,100 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,499 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 2 yuan/ton [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the foundry aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 21,290 yuan, an increase of 140 yuan or 0.66% [1] - The trading volume for the foundry aluminum main contract increased by 259 hands to 4,594 hands, while the open interest decreased by 32 hands to 17,184 hands [1] - The average price of foundry aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) rose by 200 yuan to 23,400 yuan/ton, while other grades such as A380, ADC12, ZL102, and ZLD104 also saw price increases ranging from 100 to 200 yuan [1][2] Group 2 - On the macroeconomic front, the market sentiment is cautious due to the Christmas week and upcoming third-quarter GDP data, but global stock markets and rising oil prices have improved risk sentiment, positively impacting metal demand [1] - The supply and demand for foundry aluminum have both decreased to some extent as the year-end approaches, leading to a stalemate in the market [2] - The cost side remains high, with aluminum alloy prices sustaining at elevated levels, while the smelting sector faces losses, limiting the increase in operating rates and supply capacity [2][3] Group 3 - The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved, supported by orders from the automotive consumer market, leading to increased trading activity [2] - The price performance of foundry aluminum is primarily supported by the cost of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation trend in the future [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations with LME copper up by 0.36%, SHFE copper down by 0.96%, and COMEX copper up by 2.33% [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate for November was 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while the CPI was below expectations, leading to increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, which supports copper prices [1] - A long-term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $0/ton and $0/lb for 2026, indicating a tight supply situation in the copper mining sector [1] - Copper inventories increased, with LME copper at 160,000 tons, COMEX copper at 462,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 96,000 tons, showing changes of -3.32%, +2.57%, and +7.18% respectively [1] - The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods was 63.06%, a decrease of 1.48 percentage points [1] - Long-term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, with potential price increases as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic aluminum inventories saw a slight increase, while aluminum prices remained high, with SHFE aluminum down by 0.54% to 22,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of alumina fell by 1.08% to 2,750 yuan/ton, with metallurgical-grade alumina production capacity at 88.085 million tons/year and a weekly operating rate of 79.85% [2] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a shortage next year due to stable demand growth and limited supply, as domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity approaches its ceiling [2] Group 3: Lithium - Lithium prices are entering an upward cycle, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 3.33% to 97,700 yuan/ton and spodumene concentrate up by 8.03% to $1,318/ton [3] - Lithium carbonate production increased to 22,000 tons, with SMM weekly inventory down by 0.9%, marking 18 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction [3] - The demand for lithium battery materials remains strong, with phosphate iron lithium production in November at 413,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 44% [3] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand growth exceeds expectations and supply-demand dynamics shift [3] Group 4: Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with MB cobalt up by 0.51% to $24.45/lb and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.93% to 422,000 yuan/ton [4] - The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing a quota system instead, but the export process for many companies remains slow [4] - Structural tightness in cobalt raw materials is expected to persist, with domestic supplies likely arriving only after March next year due to shipping delays and holiday impacts [4]

中国电解铝产能受限，需求端受益于新能源汽车和储能等新兴产业，长 期供需结构性矛盾支撑铝价中枢上移，但需关注房地产需求下滑的影响。 2025 年电解铝市场预计维持紧平衡，短缺约 10 万吨，铝水转化率提升 和注定量收缩导致现货流通性敏感度上升，价格易涨难跌。 铝材出口退税取消及海外政策不确定性导致出口环境趋紧，出口重心转 向高附加值铝制品，2025 年铝材出口下降约 10%，铝制品增长约 10%。 电解铝行业自 2017 年以来保持盈利，当前盈利处于近三年高位，成本 端氧化铝价格接近成本线，电力成本受市场化交易影响，阳极受石油焦 价格波动影响。 氧化铝产能过剩严重，预计到 2026 年底产能过剩格局不会改变，短期 内价格仍将以下跌为主，行业联动约束生产的可能性较小。 再生铝行业短期内难以强劲增长或加速替代原铝，废铝供应紧缺且价格 与原铝联动，对原铝需求仍然存在，再生铝替代性不显著。 储能环节未来几年预计保持高增长，但增速将逐渐放缓，特高压线路建 设将继续拉动锌线缆市场，并保持较高增速。 Q&A 今年铝价上涨的主要原因是什么？ 今年铝价上涨的主要原因可以归结为三个方面。首先是流动性增强。今年以来， 美联储进入了明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors such as the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate and lower-than-expected CPI, which have increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are tightening, with capital expenditures on copper mines insufficient and frequent supply disruptions expected to lead to a shift from a tight balance to a shortage [4] - The aluminum market is characterized by a slight accumulation of domestic inventory, with prices remaining high due to stable demand and limited supply growth [4] - The lithium sector is witnessing strong demand, with lithium prices entering an upward cycle as inventory continues to deplete [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply of raw materials, despite some easing of export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 64,000, also above forecasts [8] - The US retail sales for October were flat, and the CPI for November was reported at 2.7%, below expectations [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.46% compared to a 0.03% rise in the index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is at 26.64 times, while the PB_LF valuation is at 3.29 times, indicating a premium over the broader market [19] 3. Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.36%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.96% [24] - Copper inventories in London decreased by 3.32%, while Shanghai inventories increased by 7.18% [24] 4. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.37%, while Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 0.54% [36] - The aluminum industry is facing a slight increase in inventory, with production capacity nearing its limits [4] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 3.33% to 97,650 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 3.91% to 86,280 CNY/ton [78] - The lithium sector is expected to see a profit turning point as demand continues to grow [4] 6. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt rose by 0.51% to 24.45 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices increasing by 1.93% to 422,000 CNY/ton [90] - The supply of cobalt remains tight, with expectations for continued price increases [4]