Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 15 products experiencing price increases, 31 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable in mid-December 2025 compared to early December 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar decreased by 22.0 yuan per ton to 3169.8 yuan, while wire rod fell by 15.0 yuan to 3354.5 yuan [5]. - In the non-ferrous metals category, electrolytic copper saw an increase of 1822.7 yuan per ton, reaching 92520.8 yuan, while aluminum ingots dropped by 65.8 yuan to 21796.7 yuan [6]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 44.0 yuan to 1057.9 yuan, while several other chemicals like caustic soda and methanol experienced price declines [6][7]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 172.7 yuan to 3919.5 yuan per ton, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 4.2 yuan to 4405.4 yuan [7]. - Coal prices showed a slight increase for some types, with non-caking coal rising by 7.5 yuan to 930.5 yuan per ton, while other types like Shanxi mixed coal saw declines [8]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - In agricultural products, the price of rice increased by 25.6 yuan to 3943.2 yuan per ton, while wheat and corn prices saw minor declines [8][9]. - Fertilizer prices varied, with urea decreasing by 1.4 yuan to 1711.8 yuan per ton, while compound fertilizer increased by 61.8 yuan to 3390.6 yuan [9]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring covers over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and dealers across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces, utilizing methods such as on-site price collection and electronic inquiries [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the corn market will be in a state of oscillation, with the disk expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a one - side trading of oscillating and slightly stronger, and an arbitrage strategy of C03 - C05 positive spread [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the corn market is characterized by a strong reality and weak expectations, with the disk oscillating and slightly stronger. The fast progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level, low inventory levels at ports and downstream, and the uninitiated strategic inventory building of most traders are expected to drive the disk to be oscillating and slightly stronger under the replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 40%, faster than the same period last year. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline. There are increases in production in the Northeast and Northwest, and a decrease in production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%. The high pig inventory and the slow capacity reduction support short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment but are cautious. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are also cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at the northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at the southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Slightly bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level, and the 1 - 3 spread is firm [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs and egg - laying poultry are in deficit, and the processing profits of deep - processing starch and alcohol are also in deficit [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the basis, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price is stable with a slight decline [7]. - **Futures Market**: The positions are at a high level [11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain Sales Progress**: The sales progress is fast, and the channel supply volume is shrinking [21][24]. - **Port Situation**: The inventory at the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory at the southern ports is at a low level [38]. - **Feed Enterprises**: The inventory days are at a low level, and the monthly feed production shows certain trends [44][46]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and egg - laying poultry are in different situations [48][52][56]. - **Deep - processing Industry**: The corn consumption of deep - processing shows seasonal recovery, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is at a high level. The alcohol production rate has declined, and the processing profit has decreased [64][72][94]. - **Starch Demand**: The performance in the beverage sector is poor, while the papermaking sector has a high operating rate and a significant increase in profit [84][85]. - **Wheat Market**: The wheat price has increased, and the flour demand is weak [102]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **2025/2026 Report**: The corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered [113]. - **US Corn**: The export sales performance is good [119].

据介绍，深圳的水果质量分级标准是一个从种植到消费全链条评价，将外观、口感、营养、安全等均转 换为可具体可量化的质量指标。将水果分为A+、A和B三个等级，让消费者能够更清晰感知这个水果的 品质。深圳将推动分级产品优质优价，让优质农产品在国内和国际市场都有竞争力。 买水果时，只需用微信扫一扫其质量分级标签上的二维码，就不仅可追溯其存储方式、采摘时间、最佳 食用日期，还可了解其种植全过程、查阅体检报告和看现场视频。12月27日，全国首个农产品质量分级 示范店在深圳福田农批市场正式启动，标志着该项创新在深圳率先落地。 深圳市检测院食品检测部副部长李锦才认为，向消费者供应优质产品也能引起种植端的关注，提高种植 的技术，为消费端输出更多优质的产品。"深圳现在已成立了深圳农产品质量提升联盟，商户可自愿申 报进行质量分级，然后内部会进行评级评价，然后再推向市场。"李锦才希望深圳这一试点未来在全国 推广。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - A weak La Niña phenomenon has formed and is expected to last until early 2026, currently having limited impact on palm oil - producing areas [1]. - Recent rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has increased, with significant improvement in soil moisture in southern Peninsular Malaysia and some areas in Indonesia. However, the rainfall is not persistent, and there is a risk of soil drying in 2026 [1]. - Short - term catastrophic weather disturbances are insufficient, but continuous attention should be paid to areas with low soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of next year [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since October, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon [1]. 3.2 Precipitation Forecast in Producing Areas - Recent rainfall has improved, and rainfall in southern Peninsular Malaysia has increased [3]. 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - **Indonesia** - In Jambi, soil moisture has improved year - on - year at the end of the year [22]. - In West Kalimantan, soil moisture has increased, but cumulative precipitation is lower year - on - year [28]. - In Central Kalimantan, the soil moisture level is higher year - on - year [34]. - In East Kalimantan, precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [41]. - In Riau, rainfall has slightly improved at the end of the year, but soil moisture is still slightly behind the same period in previous years [47]. - In South Sumatra, soil moisture is currently low, but it is expected to exceed last year's level at the end of the year [54]. - In North Sumatra, rainfall is limited at the end of the year, and soil moisture remains low [58]. - **Malaysia** - In Johor, rainfall has increased, and soil moisture has improved [65]. - In Pahang, rainfall has returned to a low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [71]. - In Perak, rainfall has decreased at the end of the year, and soil moisture has declined [78]. - In Sabah, cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [83]. - In Sarawak, cumulative rainfall is insufficient, and soil moisture is the same as last year [89].

Core Insights - The 12th Sichuan Dazhou Qinba Region Commodity Fair was held from December 18 to 21, showcasing over 316 enterprises and attracting significant participation from various provinces [6][10] - The fair achieved a total transaction amount of over 5 million yuan in the offline exhibition area, with 18 local enterprises reaching procurement agreements worth 21.1 million yuan [6][10] - Thailand was invited as the first guest country, featuring 9 Thai enterprises and becoming one of the most popular exhibition areas [11] Group 1: Event Overview - The fair was themed "Meeting in Qinba, Going Global" and was co-hosted by Dazhou and 20 cities from five provinces [6][10] - The event included a variety of products, such as agricultural specialties, traditional Chinese medicine, and industrial products, with a focus on enhancing Dazhou's external image [7][8] Group 2: Economic Impact - The offline exhibition area generated a transaction amount of over 5 million yuan, with international cooperation areas achieving nearly 500,000 yuan in transactions and 3.8 million yuan in intended orders [6][10] - The fair facilitated significant economic interactions, including a cooperation agreement between Dazhou's agricultural company and a Hebei enterprise, enhancing market coverage and brand influence [10] Group 3: Cultural Promotion - The fair featured a cultural tourism promotion event for the Ba Mountain Grand Canyon, aiming to create a national 5A scenic area and promote local cultural heritage [8] - Dazhou's cultural tourism bureau introduced themed travel routes, offering diverse options for visitors to explore local attractions [8] Group 4: International Collaboration - The establishment of an international cooperation exhibition area aimed to connect the Qinba region with global markets, featuring products from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [11] - Over 70 Dazhou suppliers and 30 domestic and international buyers participated in face-to-face negotiations, resulting in intended procurement agreements worth 21.1 million yuan [11]

Group 1 - China's National People's Congress Foreign Affairs Committee issued a strong statement to the U.S., indicating a shift from passive defense to active countermeasures in response to external pressures [1][3] - The U.S. has been applying pressure on China through various means, including military sales to Taiwan and the seizure of Chinese vessels, prompting China to formally activate its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law as a core tool for retaliation [3][4] - The strategic competition between China and the U.S. has entered a new phase, with China adopting systematic and institutionalized countermeasures to ensure compliance with legal procedures [4][8] Group 2 - A U.S. military helicopter forcibly boarded a Chinese oil tanker, highlighting the misuse of judicial power by the U.S. in international waters [6] - China's response to U.S. actions is now characterized by strong legal measures, marking the beginning of a new era of legal countermeasures [8][10] - The cancellation of a 132,000-ton wheat order from U.S. farmers to China signifies a strategic decision to reduce reliance on U.S. agricultural products, despite higher costs from Canadian suppliers [11] Group 3 - The impact of China's countermeasures is felt globally, with U.S. wheat futures dropping 3%, the largest single-day decline in three months, and negative growth in exports to China [12] - U.S. companies, such as synthetic rubber manufacturers, are facing anti-dumping investigations amounting to $780 million, leading to production line shutdown risks [12] - China's countermeasures are targeted, focusing on U.S. political constituencies and industries, indicating that provocations will have domestic political consequences [13] Group 4 - In the technology sector, U.S. bans on DJI drones have backfired, as the company holds a 70% market share globally, complicating the search for alternatives and increasing costs for U.S. emergency services [15] - The semiconductor industry is similarly affected, with U.S. chip manufacturers experiencing a drop in capacity utilization to 20% after losing $15 billion in orders from China [17] - The so-called technology blockade has inadvertently accelerated China's innovation, allowing companies like DJI to strengthen their global leadership [18] Group 5 - China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds have fallen to $688.7 billion, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, signaling a move away from reliance on U.S. dollar assets [20] - The daily processing volume of China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has surpassed 4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in international trade settlements away from the SWIFT system [20] - The U.S. military aid to Taiwan, while appearing generous, imposes heavy financial burdens on Taiwan, revealing the strategic implications of U.S. support [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, prices are expected to be strong in the near - term due to de - stocking expectations and cost support, but the upside is limited. The 03 contract is likely to perform strongly, while the 05 contract may be weak under the background of South American bumper harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness will continue [7]. - In the oils market, in the short term, domestic three major oils have bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. In the long run, with the intensification of Malaysia's production cuts, India's pre - Ramadan stocking, the advancement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, and the implementation of the US biofuel policy in the first quarter of 2026, it will help the three major oils to bottom out and strengthen again [73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of December 26, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. Brazil's production is 175 million tons, while the US and Argentina's production decreases year - on - year. In China, the 2025/26 soybean import volume is expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. From December to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and soybeans and soybean meal will enter the de - stocking cycle. From April to September, domestic soybean arrivals will remain high at over 9 million tons [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - Current soybean meal demand remains high. Pig and poultry inventories are at a high level, and the good cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand. In the 51st week of 2025, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.2236 million tons, a decrease of 171,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.32%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.66% [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it will rise to 2760 yuan/ton. The domestic import cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of December 26, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 276 yuan/ton to 8568 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 124 yuan/ton to 7836 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 302 yuan/ton to 9046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also increased, and the basis of each oil showed different changes [74][76]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In Malaysia, from December 1 - 25, palm oil exports increased, and production decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation in December will be less than previously estimated, but it is still difficult to start de - stocking. In China, palm oil purchases from December to January are relatively small, and the market demand is average, limiting the de - stocking speed. As of the week of December 19, domestic palm oil inventory rebounded to 700,000 tons [74]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - In the US, although there are reports of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, the actual purchase volume announced by USDA is much lower. In South America, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The US soybean futures price is under pressure, but it is limited by the planting cost and potential bio - diesel policies. In China, soybean arrivals have decreased seasonally since October, and soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.1235 million tons as of the week of December 19 [74]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil market shows a state of strong current situation and weak future expectations. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are at a medium - level. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed is expected to be pressed in January 2026, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. As of the week of December 19, domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons [74].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量 2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末 库存1653.2万吨。海关：11月纺织品服装出口238.69亿美元，同比下降5.12%。11月份我国棉 花进口12万吨，同比增加9.4%；棉纱进口15万吨，同比增加25%。农村部12月25/26年度：产 量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万吨。偏多。 2、基差：现货3128 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a weak and volatile state, oils, by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a strong consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a narrow - range bullish consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, soybean No. 1 (A2603) has a latest price of 4,105, a rise of 13, and a trading volume of 1.05 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of different option varieties are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No. 1 is 0.35, and the open - interest PCR is 0.93 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open - interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No. 1 is 4,200, and the support level is 4,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No. 1 is 10.81% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No. 1**: The fundamental situation is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean purchases and Brazilian soybean import costs. The option strategy includes constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals show a production decline and an export increase. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: The downstream consumption is weak. The option strategy includes a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 By - products Options - **Pig**: The supply is reduced, and the demand is in the peak season. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Egg**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is relatively weak. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: The cold - storage inventory is decreasing. The option strategy includes constructing a long - delta call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: The inventory is decreasing. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Thailand is declining, and the domestic industrial inventory is increasing. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The cotton production in Xinjiang has increased. The option strategy includes constructing a bull - spread call option combination strategy, a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The domestic corn oil market price is in a weak state. The option strategy includes constructing a short - delta neutral call + put option combination strategy [13].

Core Viewpoint - The "Civilization Market" series of promotional activities aims to revitalize the cultural and commercial landscape of Guangzhou, enhancing consumer engagement and showcasing local agricultural and cultural products [5][9][12]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Civilization Market" will take place from December 19 to December 28, 2025, on Beijing Road, injecting new vitality into the area and attracting citizens and tourists [5][6]. - The event features over 10 unique activities and more than 8 types of consumption scenarios, showcasing high-quality agricultural and cultural products from across Guangdong [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The event is expected to stimulate the winter consumer market and promote the integration of culture and commerce, contributing to the high-quality economic development of the region [7][21]. - In the first 11 months of this year, Beijing Road is projected to achieve a total revenue of 173 billion yuan, with over 20 cultural and commercial activities held in the fourth quarter alone [68][69]. Group 3: Cultural Integration - The market serves as a platform for showcasing the rich cultural heritage of Guangdong, allowing visitors to experience various local traditions and products, such as traditional crafts and culinary delights [19][21][46]. - The event highlights the importance of cultural value and tourism in reshaping agricultural practices and enhancing community engagement [87][88]. Group 4: Participation and Engagement - The event attracted significant participation from local enterprises, with over 100 companies showcasing their products, including popular items like Hakka pork balls and local teas [24][27][36]. - The market also engaged students from vocational schools, who showcased their skills and products, further promoting the integration of education and industry [40][42][44]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The "Civilization Market" is seen as a new model for promoting the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, providing a window to observe the progress of the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages" initiative [102][103]. - The successful execution of this event is expected to inspire further collaboration among government, enterprises, and society to drive high-quality development in the region [120][121].