Group 1: Market Growth and Demand - China's beef consumption has been steadily increasing, with beef production expected to reach 7.79 million tons in 2024, a 16% increase from 2020, and apparent demand totaling 10.66 million tons, a 21% increase from 2020, resulting in a per capita consumption of 7.6 kg, up by 1.3 kg from 2020 [1][2] - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences towards fresh, high-quality beef products, moving away from frozen and chilled meat, indicating a new growth point in meat consumption [2][4] Group 2: Cultural and Technological Influences - The resurgence of fresh beef consumption reflects a return to traditional Chinese dietary culture, emphasizing cultural confidence and a shift from the previously dominant frozen meat supply model influenced by Western practices [4] - Technological innovations are crucial for the fresh beef industry's upgrade, with the government promoting antibiotic-free beef and modernizing the supply chain to ensure quality and safety [5][6] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The fresh beef market faces challenges such as standardization and branding, with fluctuations in feed prices and environmental regulations impacting upstream production [6] - The industry is encouraged to adopt a full supply chain model to enhance collaboration among all parties, improve market order, and increase consumer trust in domestic beef products [7][8] Group 4: Company Strategies and Innovations - Companies like Zuo Ting You Yuan are implementing a full supply chain approach, controlling every aspect from pasture to table, which ensures product quality and safety while meeting consumer demands [7][8] - Research institutions are actively innovating in key areas such as breeding technology and logistics management, providing strong technical support for the fresh beef industry's sustainable growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - The inventory of breeding sows in China has shown stable growth, indicating a normal production capacity within the industry, as reflected in the recent data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Group 1: Breeding Sow Inventory Data - As of the end of May 2025, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, representing 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating normal production capacity [1] - As of the end of April 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.38 million heads, remaining flat month-on-month and showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, also at 103.6% of the normal holding capacity [1] - At the end of Q1 2025, the breeding sow inventory stood at 40.39 million heads, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, maintaining 103.6% of the normal holding capacity [1] - By the end of February 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.66 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, at 104.3% of the normal holding capacity [1] - At the end of January 2025, the breeding sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, representing 104.2% of the normal holding capacity [1]

Group 1 - The economic performance of Shandong Province in the first half of 2025 is stable and improving, achieving a "double over half" milestone, with summer grain production reaching a historical high [1] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Shandong is 537.53 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% year-on-year, with summer grain production totaling 54.74 billion jin, an increase of 0.7% [1] - Vegetable and fruit production continues to increase, with vegetable output growing by 3.1% and fruit output by 2.9%, while livestock production shows steady improvement [1] Group 2 - Shandong has built 77.59 million mu of high-standard farmland, with soil quality rated at 4.43, which is 0.3 grades higher than the national average [2] - The province promotes four of the top ten wheat varieties in China, with an additional 2 million mu of good seed area being promoted [2] - Advanced agricultural equipment, such as the "Beidou Navigation+" and high-performance precision seeding machines, are being utilized to enhance agricultural productivity [2] Group 3 - Shandong customizes integrated yield enhancement plans based on different crops and regional characteristics, implementing a "10,000 people going to the countryside" agricultural technology service initiative [3] - A total of 18,000 agricultural technicians are actively providing guidance and conducting training sessions to improve key yield-increasing techniques [3] - The province has established six provincial-level yield enhancement leading areas and numerous demonstration zones to promote agricultural productivity [3]

7月24日，生猪期货震荡下行，截至发稿主力合约报14320.00元/吨，跌幅2.55%。 机构观点 华联期货：需求淡季，终端消费依旧疲软，下游抵触高价猪。近期二育积极性放缓，加之料比较高，养 殖端加速出栏，供应压力显现，全国生猪现货价格弱势回调。不过在政策控量的预期下猪价下跌空间或 有限。中期来看，规模养殖场仍有利润，主动去产能积极性不高，能繁母猪存栏量仍处高位运行。政策 利好，看多情绪高涨，主力合约区间宽幅震荡，支撑位参考14000，可轻仓买入看涨期权。 国元期货：前生猪行业正处于产能释放阶段，终端消费则处于淡季。不过养殖端对后续需求回暖存在一 定预期，养殖端逢低压栏和二育操作，对猪价形成支撑，使得短期现货价格呈现震荡。受旺季消费预期 及产能调控政策的双重提振，盘面短期看涨情绪升温。然而从中期来看，当前存栏基数偏高，供给压力 持续释放。此外，短期看涨情绪引发的压栏和二育导致供给后置，进一步加剧中期的供应压力。综合来 看，在情绪主导的背景下，短期内盘面维持阶段性反弹走势，但受制于供给端的压力，反弹空间有限。 生猪2509建议区间14000-15000元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 农业农村部部党组书记、部长韩俊表示 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the pig market is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is cautiously bearish [6] Core Views - The pig market remains in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with the current consumption off - season expected to continue in the near future, and attention should be paid to the changes in diseases and policies [2] - In the egg market, the supply pressure has increased significantly due to the large increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens this month, while the demand improvement is limited during the consumption off - season [4][5] Market News and Important Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2509 contract yesterday was 14,590 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton or 1.46% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: The ex - ternary pig prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 14.32 yuan/kg, 14.42 yuan/kg, and 13.50 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of - 0.07 yuan/kg, - 0.13 yuan/kg, and - 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous trading day. The spot basis was LH09 - 270, LH09 - 170, and LH09 - 1090 respectively, with changes of - 280, - 340, and - 330 from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural products wholesale prices on July 23: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 112.74, down 0.03 points from yesterday; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 112.80, down 0.02 points from yesterday. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.57 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; beef was 64.00 yuan/kg, down 0.1%; mutton was 59.16 yuan/kg, down 0.6%; eggs were 7.43 yuan/kg, up 1.6%; and white - striped chickens were 17.47 yuan/kg, up 1.2% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3,637 yuan/500 kg, up 16 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Shandong, and Hebei were 3.16 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin, and 3.18 yuan/jin respectively, with changes of + 0.12, + 0.10, and + 0.00 from the previous trading day. The spot basis was JD09 - 477, JD09 - 187, and JD09 - 457 respectively, with changes of + 104, + 84, and - 16 from the previous trading day [3] - Inventory: On July 23, the national production - link inventory was 0.50 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.68 days, also unchanged [3] Market Analysis Pig - The stable weight of the breeding end is due to the difficulty of weight gain after the temperature rises, not the weight reduction from slaughter. The slaughter progress of breeding enterprises has not increased this month, and the inventory remains relatively stable. The consumption end is expected to remain weak in the near future [2] Egg - The newly - opened laying hens this month are mainly from the chicks supplemented around March. The number of laying hens in stock is expected to increase significantly this month. Although the egg - laying rate has decreased due to high temperatures, the supply pressure has increased significantly. The demand improvement is limited during the consumption off - season [4][5] Strategies - Pig market strategy: Neutral [3] - Egg market strategy: Cautiously bearish [6]

Core Insights - The central government has introduced a policy to promote livestock collateral financing loans, transforming livestock production into recognized collateral for financial institutions, creating new opportunities for local specialty breeding industries [1] - The dairy industry in Wuzhong City, Ningxia, has developed into one of the six key agricultural industries, with a total dairy cattle population of 308,000, accounting for 33% of the region's total, and a comprehensive industrial output exceeding 30 billion yuan, representing about 32% of the local GDP [1] - The People's Bank of China in Wuzhong has been actively exploring ways to broaden the range of rural collateral, facilitating financing for rural specialty industries [2] Group 1: Policy and Financial Mechanisms - A collaborative mechanism involving government departments, commercial banks, and breeding enterprises has been established to support the dairy industry, with several policy documents issued to encourage financial institutions to include livestock as collateral [2] - As of May, the balance of livestock collateral loans in Wuzhong has reached 700 million yuan, supporting 110 breeding entities, with 620 million yuan specifically for dairy cattle [1][2] - The use of agricultural support loans has exceeded 500 million yuan, accounting for 14.8% of the city's total re-loan balance, providing financial support for the dairy industry [2] Group 2: Innovative Financing Models - The People's Bank of China in Wuzhong is promoting a tiered and categorized livestock collateral financing model to meet the diverse funding needs of breeding entities [3] - Various innovative financing models have been introduced, such as "livestock collateral + guarantee," "livestock collateral + credit," and "livestock collateral + syndicate loans," to enhance risk management and meet large financing demands [3] - Several banks have launched specific livestock collateral loan products, effectively converting livestock into financial assets and reducing financing costs for breeding entities [3] Group 3: Risk Management and Supervision - The unique characteristics of livestock collateral, such as regulatory challenges and value volatility, have led to increased risks for financial institutions [4] - A dynamic regulatory system has been implemented to strengthen the supervision of livestock collateral, including unified registration and real-time monitoring mechanisms [4][5] - The introduction of digital identification for livestock and third-party supervision has been established to mitigate risks associated with collateral value depreciation or loss [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the pig price will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to be abundant, which makes it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is necessary due to the significant influence of macro - sentiment on commodities [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On July 23, there were 284 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of pigs will continue to decrease. The main contract (LH2509) increased in price with increased positions due to positive macro - sentiment, with a position of about 67,300 lots, a maximum price of 15,150 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 14,400 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,590 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight - reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughterings, and limited support from demand as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of the spot price, and limited increase in subsequent slaughterings along with the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [2]. 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pig slaughterings may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for the pig price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support the pig price. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable, the pig price may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention is needed [3]. 4. Market Overview - On July 23, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.22 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.91% compared to the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.04%. In Sichuan, it was 13.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74%. Among the futures prices, most contracts showed an increase, with the 01 contract rising by 2.45%, the 03 contract by 2.03%, the 05 contract by 1.88%, the 09 contract by 1.46%, and the 11 contract by 2.44%. The 07 contract remained unchanged. The main basis in Henan decreased by 360 yuan/ton or 360% [5]. 5. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant agricultural advancements and achievements in Suhua City, emphasizing its role as a key player in ensuring national food security through enhanced production capabilities and diversified agricultural practices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Achievements - In 2024, Suhua City ranked first in the province for rice and corn yield per unit area, with a total grain output of 241.15 billion jin, an increase of 19.52 billion jin since 2020 [2][3]. - Suhua contributes 1.72 jin of high-quality grain for every 100 jin of grain produced in China, with leading figures in various agricultural metrics such as pig production and vegetable cultivation [2][3]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Base Construction - The construction of large agricultural bases has significantly strengthened the stability of grain supply, with a focus on implementing a ten-million-ton grain increase plan and enhancing the production capacity of major crops [3][4]. - By 2024, the city is expected to produce 627.64 million pigs, accounting for 26.75% of the province's total, and achieve a water product output of 20.8 million tons, both leading in the province [3][4]. Group 3: Agricultural Industrialization - Suhua has developed a "5+8" agricultural industrial system, focusing on five major industries (corn, rice, soybeans, meat, and dairy) and eight specialty industries, leading to a 44.23% increase in agricultural processing revenue since 2020, reaching 604.5 billion yuan [4][5]. - The corn processing industry has seen remarkable growth, with revenues nearing 30 billion yuan, doubling since 2020, and processing capacity exceeding 11 million tons, ranking first among prefecture-level cities in China [4][5]. Group 4: Technological and Green Development - The contribution rate of agricultural technology in Suhua has reached 71.7%, with significant advancements in crop breeding and the establishment of 307 modern agricultural technology demonstration bases [5][6]. - The city has implemented green production practices, achieving a 90% coverage rate for soil testing and formula fertilization, and increasing the area of certified organic food to 1.203 million acres [6][7]. Group 5: Branding and Market Positioning - Suhua has established a strong branding strategy with the "Heilongjiang Black Soil" brand, achieving a brand value of 100.235 billion yuan, and enhancing the influence of regional brands such as "Suhua Fresh Corn" and "Qing'an Rice" [7]. - The city has received numerous brand approvals, with 38 enterprises and cooperatives authorized to use the "Heilongjiang Black Soil" brand, reflecting the growing recognition of its agricultural products [7].

Core Viewpoint - The popularity of Guo Bao Rou (锅包肉) in Jilin City has significantly increased, becoming a representative dish that attracts tourists and boosts local industries [2][3][4][5] Group 1: Historical and Cultural Significance - Guo Bao Rou originated from the traditional Manchu cuisine and has evolved over time, with its roots tracing back to the Qing Dynasty's Fu Chun Yuan restaurant [2] - The dish has transformed from its original spicy version to a sweet and sour flavor, becoming a staple in local restaurants [2] Group 2: Economic Impact - The rise in popularity of Guo Bao Rou has led to a 20% average increase in revenue for key local restaurants [3] - The dish has stimulated growth in related industries, including agriculture and food production, contributing to a broader economic impact [3] Group 3: Innovation and Expansion - Various innovative versions of Guo Bao Rou have emerged, including combinations with dumplings and cold noodles, leading to over 30 different meal packages [3] - The establishment of 91 "World Guo Bao Rou Restaurants" across multiple cities has further expanded its reach [3] Group 4: Marketing and Promotion - Jilin City has launched initiatives such as a hand-drawn Guo Bao Rou map and a "Ji Cuisine Museum" to promote local culinary culture [4] - The city has also utilized live streaming and online platforms to enhance the visibility of Guo Bao Rou and attract more visitors [4] Group 5: Social and Cultural Role - Guo Bao Rou has become a social symbol in Jilin City, with approximately 2.7 million servings sold in the first half of the year, generating 390 million yuan in dining revenue [5] - The dish is now a popular choice for both locals and tourists, serving as a means of social interaction and cultural exchange [5]