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摊余成本法债基开放高峰,变化和机会
Huachuang Securities· 2025-11-12 12:43
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Entering the fourth quarter of 2025, a new batch of fixed - open bond funds priced using the amortized cost method are entering a concentrated opening period. These products can provide stable and predictable returns, alleviating investors' concerns about the uncertainty of the bond market and attracting market attention [1][11]. - From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, the fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new opening peak. Attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of 3 - 5y varieties, including high - grade general credit bonds and policy - financial bonds [5][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Historical Amortized Cost Method Bond Funds - **Open - period Peaks**: Since their establishment in 2019, amortized cost fixed - open bond funds have experienced multiple open - period peaks. The third peak is expected from 2025Q4 to 2026Q2. They were first issued in May 2019, with issuance peaks in Q4 2019 and Q3 2020, and previous open - period peaks in 2022Q4 - 2023Q1 and 2023Q4 [2][11]. - **Bond Allocation Structure**: Policy - financial bonds dominate the bond allocation of existing products, but their proportion has declined in recent years. As of Q3 2025, the proportion of policy - financial bond holdings has dropped from around 90% to around 75% [2][12]. - **Historical Performance**: When amortized cost method bond funds enter the intensive open - period, the heavy - position varieties corresponding to the product's closed - end period perform well. For example, when 3y and 7y funds were concentratedly established or reopened, the spreads of corresponding - term policy - financial bonds were significantly compressed [16]. 2. What's Different This Round? (1) Investor Perspective - **Bank Self - operation**: In the affiliated - party context, the scale of bank self - operation holding amortized cost fixed - open bond funds has remained stable at around 250 billion yuan in recent years, mainly holding products with a term of 3y and above, indicating a stable long - term allocation demand [3][17]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: In 2025, due to the rectification of the valuation - smoothing method through the trust mechanism, bank wealth management has significantly increased its holdings of amortized cost method bond funds. The scale has increased from 1.71 billion yuan in Q4 2024 to 9.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a nearly 5.4 - fold increase. Bank wealth management prefers medium - term credit bonds and short - term (3y and within) amortized cost method bond funds [20][23]. (2) Asset Perspective - **Shift in Bond Allocation Preference**: Since 2025, the bond allocation preference of amortized cost method bond funds entering the open - period has shifted from policy - financial bonds to credit bonds. Among the 36 funds that reopened in the first three quarters of 2025, most have changed their bond allocation from policy - financial bonds to general credit bonds, with only 3 still mainly investing in policy - financial bonds [4][26]. - **Reasons for the Shift**: Firstly, the participation of bank wealth management in the investor structure has increased, and they prefer credit bonds. Secondly, in a low - interest - rate environment, institutions pursue higher - coupon - return assets [26]. - **Grade and Term Distribution**: In terms of the top five holdings of these 36 funds, they are mainly AAA - grade high - grade bonds, followed by non - rated bonds. The term is generally in line with the closed - end period of the funds, and subsequent structural opportunities of corresponding varieties can be grasped according to the term distribution of maturing funds [27]. 3. Opportunities for 3 - 5y Varieties under the New Round of Amortized Cost Method Bond Fund Openings - **Open - period Characteristics**: From 2025Q4 to 2026Q2, fixed - open bond funds with a 3 - 5 - year closed - end period will enter a new open - period. The main term shows a switching characteristic of "3 - 5 years → 5 years → 3 years", and the 5 - year variety will reach a maturity peak for the first time since the concentrated establishment of products in 2020 [5][32]. - **Credit Bonds**: With the increasing trend of wealth - management funds, attention can be paid to the spread - compression opportunities of 3 - 5 - year high - grade general credit bonds. However, the credit spreads of 3 - 5y high - grade medium - and short - term notes have been compressed to a relatively low level since 2024, so it is advisable to wait for the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations before seizing allocation opportunities [5][33]. - **Policy - financial Bonds**: Due to the previous selling pressure of funds, the spread quantiles of 3 - 5y policy - financial bonds are at a high level since 2022. After the implementation of the fund - fee new regulations, it is a good allocation time. However, the insufficient incremental funds of new products flowing into policy - financial bonds may lead to a less - effective spread - compression market than before [6][35][37].
定在11月14日!本月双红利ETF同步分红登记,AH红利哑铃策略路径明晰
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-12 12:41
Core Viewpoint - The announcement indicates that two ETFs under China Merchants Fund will implement dividend distributions on November 14, 2025, with specific payouts and dividend ratios outlined for each fund [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution Details - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) will distribute a dividend of 0.004 yuan per share, marking its seventh distribution of the year, with a dividend ratio of 0.3% [1][2]. - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) will distribute a dividend of 0.003 yuan per share, representing its fifth distribution of the year, also with a dividend ratio of 0.3% [1][2]. - The record date for both ETFs is set for October 31, 2025, with the ex-dividend date on November 17, 2025, and payout dates on November 19 and 20, 2025, respectively [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Focus - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF focuses on a "high dividend + low volatility" strategy, primarily investing in defensive sectors such as finance, energy, and public utilities, with an index dividend yield close to 6% [1][5]. - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF targets a "high dividend + high quality" strategy, selecting financially stable companies from sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals, maintaining a dividend yield of 3%-5% while achieving superior ROE and price elasticity [5]. - Investors are advised to choose based on their risk preferences, with conservative investors leaning towards the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF for stable returns, while aggressive investors may consider the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF for growth opportunities [8].
把握宏观周期+捕捉科技成长,中银品质新兴混合重磅启航
经济观察报· 2025-11-12 12:38
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the launch of the new floating fee rate product, Zhongyin Quality Emerging Mixed Fund, which aims to align with industry trends through a diversified performance benchmark [2][3] - The performance benchmark consists of 60% CSI 300 Index, 15% Hang Seng Index, 20% China Bond Composite Index, and 5% bank demand deposits, reflecting a comprehensive market trend across stocks and bonds [2][3] - The fund manager, Li Sijia, is noted for her balanced investment approach, focusing on multiple sources of returns to mitigate single beta exposure while aiming for stable risk-adjusted returns [2][3] Group 2 - Li Sijia has managed the Zhongyin Strategic Emerging Industries Stock Fund since October 2023, achieving a 43.92% return over the past year, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 15.37% [3][5] - The article highlights Li Sijia's long-term optimism towards technology growth assets and cyclical industries, driven by strong industry trends and improving fundamentals [3] - The emergence of AI applications and related sectors, such as humanoid robots and semiconductors, is identified as a key investment opportunity, spurred by structural demand and technological advancements [3]
共探品牌价值新未来:第二十三届杰出品牌营销奖终审会将于明日举行
经济观察报· 2025-11-12 12:38
Core Insights - The 2025 Outstanding Brand Marketing Award has received over 200 entries from more than 70 companies, with over 90 entries making it to the final review stage [1][2] - The award, co-hosted by the Economic Observer and the Hong Kong Management Association, focuses on innovation and transformation in Chinese marketing practices, with this year's theme being "The Collision of Brand Economy and Traffic Economy" [2][8] Summary by Sections Award Overview - The award has a history of over 20 years and aims to highlight representative value cases in the industry, promoting a shift from "traffic competition" to "value cultivation" [2][8] - The final review will feature a diverse panel of experts from academia, institutions, and brands to select benchmark cases [8] Entries and Categories - The entries cover various sectors including home, travel, dining, food, apparel, and beauty, showcasing new scenarios and applications [1][2] - A total of 91 cases have been shortlisted for the final review, focusing on the deep integration of brand content and market insights [2] Upcoming Events - The 2024-2025 Annual Marketing Conference and the 23rd Outstanding Brand Marketing Annual Meeting will be held on December 10, 2024, in Beijing [12]
南财观察|上一轮牛市买的主动权益基金,为何还有4成未回本?
Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of actively managed equity funds in the context of the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points for the first time in ten years, revealing a significant number of funds still in loss despite a majority achieving positive returns since 2025 [1][2] Fund Performance Overview - As of November 10, 2023, 97.45% of 4679 actively managed equity funds reported positive returns since 2025, with some funds achieving over 200% gains [2] - However, nearly 38% of actively managed equity funds, totaling 1019 funds, remain in loss over the past five years, including products from leading public fund institutions and well-known fund managers [1][3] Reasons for Underperformance - Key factors contributing to the underperformance of these funds include high-level increases in positions, frequent trading, and reliance on specific sectors [1][6] - The average stock position for funds with negative returns was significantly higher than the overall market average during peak market periods, indicating poor timing decisions [6] Fund Manager Challenges - Frequent trading has negatively impacted fund performance, with an average turnover rate of 460.71% for all actively managed equity funds from 2021 to 2024, and even higher for those with significant losses [7] - Changes in fund management have led to inconsistent investment strategies, further complicating performance recovery [8] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market has seen a resurgence in the issuance of new funds, with 1354 new funds launched in 2023, reflecting a renewed interest in actively managed products [10] - Fund managers are advised to focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, such as high-end manufacturing and new consumption, while being cautious of market volatility [11]
沪指窄幅震荡微跌0.07%,关注A500ETF易方达(159361)、沪深300ETF易方达(510310)等产品投资价值
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 11:13
A股三大指数全天震荡,午后有所回暖,沪指微跌0.07%,板块题材上,保险、医药、燃气、脑机接口、金属铝板块涨幅居前,培育钻石、光伏、影视院 线、能源金属、人形机器人概念股跌幅居前;港股震荡上行,医药股领涨,光伏、券商等板块表现弱势。截至收盘,中证A500指数下跌0.3%,沪深300指数 下跌0.1%,创业板指数下跌0.4%,上证科创板50成份指数下跌0.6%,恒生中国企业指数上涨0.8%。Wind数据显示,截至今日,A500ETF易方达(159361) 成立已满一周年,该产品最新规模达236亿元,位居同类产品前列。 该指数由创业板中市值大、 流动性好的100只股票组成, 战略新兴产业占比较高,申 力设备、通信、电子行业合 计占比近60% � 该指数 科创板大盘宽基:科创板50ETF 跟踪上证科创板50成份指数 该指数由科创板中市值大、流 动性好的50只股票组成,"硬 科技"龙头特征显著,半导体 占比超65%,与医疗器械、软 件开发、光伏设备行业合计占 比近80% 港股大盘宽基:H股ETF 创业板大盘宽基:创业板ETF 跟踪创业板指数 每日经济新闻 4 该指数 ...
创业板系列指数集体回调,创业板ETF(159915)全天净申购约1.2亿份
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 11:13
截至收盘,创业板成长指数下跌0.3%,创业板指数下跌0.4%,创业板中盘200指数下跌0.7%,创业板ETF(159915)全天净申购约1.2亿份。 每日经济新闻 ...
上交所称将持续深化投资者服务,A500ETF易方达(159361)等助力把握资本市场发展机遇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 11:05
截至收盘,中证A500指数下跌0.3%,中证A100指数下跌0.03%,中证A50指数上涨0.1%。Wind数据显示,截至今日,A500ETF易方达(159361)成立已满 一周年,该产品最新规模达236亿元,位居同类产品前列。 消息面上,上海证券交易所国际投资者大会今日启幕。上交所表示将持续深化投资者服务:聚焦催生新质生产力,引导资本投向前沿技术、先进制造和未来 产业,推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合;聚焦培育理性投资、价值投资、长期投资的指数化投资生态,引导更多中长期资金入市;聚焦推动上市公司提升 治理水平和信息披露质量,强化分红回购,以稳健业绩和持续回报增强投资价值。 每日经济新闻 ...
广发证券(000776) - 2025年11月12日投资者关系活动记录表(一)
2025-11-12 10:58
Group 1: Investment Management Business - The investment management segment includes asset management, public fund management, and private fund management, leveraging resources to create a diverse product supply system [2] - As of September 2025, the public fund management scale of Guangfa Fund and E Fund, excluding money market funds, ranks 3rd and 1st in the industry, respectively [2] Group 2: Wealth Management Business - The company focuses on high-quality customer management and efficient online operations, enhancing customer base and standardized operations [3] - It is accelerating the transition to buy-side investment advisory and improving multi-asset allocation capabilities [3] - The company is implementing AI service functions and promoting the application of wealth brokerage AI models [3] Group 3: Derivatives Business - As a primary dealer in the OTC derivatives market, the company strengthens team and system development, focusing on product creation and risk management solutions for institutional clients [4] Group 4: Investment Banking Business - The company aims to support the high-quality development of the real economy and enhance its role as a service provider for direct financing [5] - It is deepening its presence in key regions like the Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta, while promoting cross-border collaboration [5] - The company is advancing its digital transformation and risk management capabilities to ensure stable development [5]
“三年大考”来临,发起式基金命运不一
券商中国· 2025-11-12 10:54
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing risk of fund liquidation for many initiated funds due to persistent scale challenges, despite some funds managing to attract additional investments and avoid closure [2][3][8]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Challenges - Several initiated funds are facing imminent liquidation, with a notable example being a fund that will terminate if its scale remains below 200 million yuan by November 2025 [3]. - As of the end of Q3, some funds, including certain pension FOFs, have scales of only a few million yuan, indicating a high risk of liquidation if no new investments are made [3]. - The phenomenon of "self-rescue" is observed in some funds, where temporary inflows allowed them to surpass the 200 million yuan threshold, thus avoiding liquidation [4]. Group 2: Successful Funds - Some initiated funds have become "star products," significantly increasing their scale and avoiding survival crises. For instance, the Yongying Technology Select fund has achieved a return of 246.27% and a scale of 11.52 billion yuan [5]. - Other funds, such as Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Select, have also surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, demonstrating that strong performance can attract substantial investments [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Fund Establishment - The timing of fund establishment plays a crucial role in performance, with many initiated funds launched during market downturns, allowing them to acquire undervalued assets that can appreciate when market sentiment improves [6]. - The lower establishment threshold for initiated funds enables quicker launches during market lows, with over 300 initiated products established in 2022 alone [6]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Fund Liquidation - The accelerated pace of initiated fund liquidations reflects intense competition within the fund industry, with resources concentrating on high-quality funds [8]. - The ongoing coexistence of fund liquidations and new fund launches indicates a challenging environment where only funds with strong performance and competitive advantages are likely to survive [8].