【导读】中联重科构建增长新范式 见习记者庄佳 工程机械行业素以强周期性著称，其兴衰与房地产、基建投资高度绑定。周期波动带来的剧烈震荡，让 行业龙头们不得不重新思考：如何在"潮起潮落"中构建可持续的增长护城河？中联重科的转型答卷或许 提供了一个标杆样本。 这家成立于1992年的企业，曾凭借混凝土机械、起重机械等传统业务稳居行业前列，却在2013—2016年 的行业低谷期遭遇营收腰斩、首度亏损的危机。痛定思痛后，中联重科以"全球化、多元化、智能化"为 战略支点，开启了一场长达十年的"去周期化"革命。 数据显示，2024年中联重科境外收入占比突破51%，2025年一季度进一步攀升至54.2%，4年复合增长率 高达57.2%。2024年，高空机械、土方机械等新兴业务营收占比合计达48%，与房地产强相关的收入则 降至13%。2018—2024年，中联重科研发投入合计215.44亿元，打造出多款行业明星产品，加速进 入"工程智能体"时代。 这一系列数据背后，不仅折射出一家传统制造企业破局周期困局，更揭示了中国制造业从"规模扩 张"向"质量跃迁"的深层逻辑。 全球化突破：境外收入占比达54.2% 在工程机械行业与地产、基建 ...

导语："投资大家谈"是点拾投资的公益内容栏目，希望通过每周日不定期的推送，让更多人看到 基金经理对投资和市场的思考。"投资大家谈"栏目内容以公益类的分享为主，不带有基金产品的 代码和信息，也必须来自基金经理的内容创作。 下面，我们分享来自景顺长城基金科技军团的5月思考。一直以来，景顺长城科技军团通过持续 深耕产业链，不断取得前沿、深度的投资洞见。他们也是买方基金公司中，少数提供持续观点分 享的投研团队，相信这一期的5月观点，也能帮助大家理解景顺长城科技军团的投研思考。 最后，也欢迎大家持续给我们投稿！可以发送邮件到：azhu830@yeah.net 杨锐文：看好内需、自主可控和反内卷方向 资机会。同时医药板块长期受益于人口老龄化，而且估值消化的比较充分，具备中长期配置价 值。 周寒颖：关注自主可控和信创、内需标的、被错杀的出海品种、贵金属板块 中美之间的关税对抗对市场情绪的影响已经接近修复，中美博弈的走向和对内政策决定了未来的 操作思路。基于我们对中美关税战结果的乐观预期，关注自主可控和信创板块、长期受益的内需 标的、被错杀的出海品种及贵金属板块方面的投资机会。未来中国的政策将围绕降低储蓄率和扩 大内需做文章 ...

Group 1: Urban Renewal Policy Impact - The recent policy issued by the central government aims to promote urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of existing buildings and the upgrade of urban infrastructure, which is expected to significantly boost traditional industries such as building materials and construction machinery [3] - The policy outlines funding sources, including increased central budget investments and special bonds for local governments to support eligible urban renewal projects, indicating a substantial push for urban development [3] Group 2: JD Group Financial Performance - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, surpassing market expectations of 11%-12% [6] - Operating profit reached 10.53 billion yuan, up 36.4% year-on-year, with non-GAAP operating profit at 11.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.5% increase, driven by a 0.6 percentage point rise in gross margin to 15.89% [6] - JD Retail's revenue was 263.845 billion yuan, growing 16.3% year-on-year, while JD Logistics and new businesses also showed positive growth, indicating strong performance across various segments [6] Group 3: JD's New Business Initiatives - JD's new food delivery service launched on March 1, 2025, is in its early stages, with daily order volume approaching 20 million, although it has not yet significantly impacted financial results [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing user and merchant experiences in the food delivery sector, which may lead to short-term profit pressures but is expected to drive platform traffic and user acquisition [7] - Future financial reports will be crucial to monitor the growth of order volume, changes in expense ratios, and the sustainability of business synergies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery driven by innovation and green transformation, with a focus on high-quality development and international competitiveness [3][4][5][7]. Group 1: Global Opportunities and Challenges - The global economy is steadily recovering amidst multiple challenges, with emerging markets in Asia being the main growth drivers. The IMF predicts a global growth rate of 2.8% in 2025, while infrastructure demand along the Belt and Road Initiative is invigorating the industry [3]. - The Chinese engineering machinery sector is showing positive trends, with significant growth in export trade during the first quarter, indicating a strong recovery signal [3]. Group 2: Green Transformation - The electrification rate of high-altitude work platforms in China has exceeded 90%, with rapid "oil-to-electric" transitions in products like forklifts and loaders. A peak in electric product sales is expected in 2025 [4]. - The company is focusing on pure electric technology and has introduced hybrid products that save 30% to 50% in energy consumption, while also establishing zero-emission factories [4]. Group 3: Internationalization Strategy - The rapid growth of Chinese engineering machinery exports reflects industrial upgrades. However, companies need to shift from price competition to value competition by enhancing brand value through technological reliability and standardized services [5]. - To mitigate international risks such as exchange rate fluctuations and legal compliance, the company advocates for diversified layouts, financial hedging tools, and strengthened compliance management [5]. Group 4: Collaborative Ecosystem - To address issues like price wars and overcapacity, the industry should build a "symbiotic win-win" ecosystem. It is suggested that the China Construction Machinery Industry Association establish minimum price standards for overseas markets to curb disorderly competition [6]. - Companies are encouraged to explore niche markets and develop new models such as leasing and second-hand remanufacturing [6]. Group 5: Sustainable Development - The engineering machinery industry is moving towards high-quality development through innovation and collaboration. The company aims to contribute sustainable solutions to global infrastructure by fostering a collaborative research and development ecosystem [7]. - The focus is on transitioning from zero-sum games to symbiotic win-win scenarios, establishing a sustainable global industrial landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is currently facing more opportunities than challenges, driven by the Chinese Dream and the dual revolutions of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Third Energy Revolution [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Opportunities - The Chinese market is the largest single market globally, presenting significant potential for growth [3]. - The rapid development of new technologies, such as AI, is reshaping global development patterns, while the Third Energy Revolution is expected to create new economic growth engines [3]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The industry faces challenges from global changes, including geopolitical instability and rising protectionism, which have weakened global growth momentum [4]. - The current era is characterized by uncertainty and complexity, leading to potential "black swan" and "gray rhino" events [4]. - The transition of the Chinese economy is causing market downturns and intensified competition, making traditional high-margin business models less viable [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has proposed a new strategy focusing on globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon development to explore new paths for high-quality development in the engineering machinery sector [4][5]. - Globalization efforts include establishing a sustainable global operating capability with over 400 overseas subsidiaries and a localization rate of nearly 70% for overseas personnel [6][7]. - Digital transformation is viewed as a critical strategic shift, with initiatives to enhance smart manufacturing and product innovation [7][8]. Group 4: Digitalization and Smart Manufacturing - The company has completed the smart manufacturing upgrade of all traditional factories, achieving a leading position in the industry [8][9]. - Smart products and operational efficiencies are being developed through comprehensive data collection and analysis, exemplified by the "excavator index" as an economic indicator [9][10]. Group 5: Low-Carbon Development - The company is committed to becoming a leader in low-carbon and electric products, with significant advancements in electric machinery and related technologies [10][11]. - A dual approach to low-carbon development focuses on product electrification and the expansion of renewable energy sectors, including wind, solar, and hydrogen [11]. Group 6: Quality and Safety in Development - High-quality development emphasizes safety, with a focus on efficiency, brand value, and long-term sustainability [12][14]. - The company advocates for a collective industry commitment to quality, aiming to elevate the standards of Chinese engineering machinery on a global scale [19][20].

以下文章来源于中国工程机械工业协会 ，作者宣传工作部 中国工程机械工业协会 . 中国工程机械工业协会是经中华人民共和国民政部正式批准登记注册的全国性工程机械行业组织，是由 工程机械行业的制造企业、科研设计检测单位、高等院校、维修、使用、流通单位及其它有关工程机械 行业的企事业单位自愿联合组成的具有法人地位的社会团体。 2025年5月14—15日，以"开新篇、拓新局、创新绩"为主题的中国工程机械工业协会（以下简称 协会）六届六次会员代表大会暨第二十二届工程机械发展高层论坛在太原隆重召开。会上，苏子 孟会长以《凝神聚力 乘势而上 高质量完成工程机械行业"十四五"发展目标任务》为题作行业发 展报告。 以下为苏子孟的报告全文： 各位领导、各位嘉宾、各位会员代表： 大家好！欢迎来到太原参加协会六届六次会员代表大会及第二十二届工程机械行业发展高层论 坛。首先，我代表中国工程机械工业协会向广大会员为行业发展做出的贡献致以崇高的敬意和对 协会工作的关心支持表示衷心的感谢！同时，代表与会全体人员对太重集团为本次会议的成功召 开给予的帮助支持表示诚挚的感谢！ 2024年以来，我们工程机械行业广大干部职工与全国人民一道，以习近平新 ...

2025年5月14日，以"开新篇、拓新局、创新绩"为主题的"第二十二届工程机械发展高层论坛"在 太原成功召开。会上，中联重科股份有限公司副总裁郭学红以《三位一体跃升 把握工程机械全球 化高质量发展主动权》为题，作主旨演讲。 大家好！很荣幸代表中联重科参加第二十二届工程机械发展高层论坛，与大家一道共同探讨全球 化新时代下工程机械行业的发展形势、问题和对策。 刚才聆听了几位嘉宾的主题演讲，深受启发，也深表赞同。当前，中国工程机械行业仍处于深度 调整期。国内市场低迷，需求持续疲软；海外市场增速较快，但受贸易战、关税战等因素影响， 不确定性在增加。与此同时，以人工智能、大数据、云计算为核心的新一轮数字技术革命正在加 速产业生态重构，为行业转型升级注入全新动能。 在此背景下，我们深刻认识到：中国工程机械企业必须以全球化视野，加速推动"技术创新、全 景服务、生态共建"三位一体的转型发展，在全球行业竞争中牢牢把握发展的主动权。下面，我 结合企业的实践，和大家分享三点体会。 一、技术创新：在"智能化、数字化、绿色化"的转型中不断增强竞争力 创新是工程机械企业全面转型的核心要素。未来工程机械的竞争，本质是技术融合下的创新能力 ...

Group 1 - The fourth Changsha International Construction Machinery Exhibition opened on May 15, highlighting the significance of the event in the industry [1] - Hunan is recognized as China's largest construction machinery production base, hosting nearly 1,000 industry enterprises, with five ranked among the global top 50 [3] - The province has participated in the formulation and revision of over 300 international and national standards in recent years [3] Group 2 - The exhibition theme focuses on "High-end, Intelligent, and Green - New Generation Construction Machinery, Emergency Equipment, Mining Equipment, Agricultural Machinery, and Transport Equipment" [7] - Over 1,800 domestic and foreign enterprises are participating in the exhibition, showcasing new products, technologies, standards, and achievements in the construction machinery sector [7] Group 3 - The Cameroonian ambassador expressed the potential for collaboration with Hunan in advanced manufacturing, particularly in equipment research and development, construction, and technical services [5] - Hunan's strategic position as a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative enhances its advantages in the construction machinery industry [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's profitability is steadily improving, with a projected revenue of 91.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.28%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 12.20% to 5.976 billion yuan [1][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to product structure optimization and a higher proportion of overseas revenue, alongside cost reduction efforts [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with a forecasted net profit of 7.964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 33.3% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 22.55% and a net margin of 6.53%, with year-on-year changes of +0.17 and +0.89 percentage points respectively [1] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5.720 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.18% year-on-year, indicating improved cash return capabilities [1] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic and overseas revenues for 2024 are expected to be 49.972 billion yuan and 41.687 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of -10.17% and +12.00%, leading to an overseas revenue share of 45.58% [2] - The company’s revenue from earth-moving machinery, piling machinery, and concrete machinery is expected to grow, while revenues from concrete machinery, lifting machinery, and aerial work machinery are projected to decline [2] Market Outlook - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 11.74% in 2024, with continued growth in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the upcoming replacement cycle [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic construction machinery sector and is likely to benefit from the overall recovery in the industry [3]

Macro and Strategy - April financial data indicates a weaker than expected performance, with new social financing at 1.16 trillion yuan, below the expected 1.26 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 280 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 764 billion yuan [6][7] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 7.5%, reflecting a shift towards government financing dominance while private sector credit remains weak [6][7] - The report highlights a significant decline in new loans, with April's new credit at 280 billion yuan, a drop of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical low for the period [7] Industry and Company Analysis Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) - The company is a leading oilfield equipment manufacturer and service provider, with projected revenues of 9.44 billion yuan in 2010 and 133.55 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 20.83% [12] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 26.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [12] - The company has a strong competitive position in high-end equipment, maintaining a leading market share in domestic and international markets [13] XCMG Machinery (000425.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 916.60 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 1.28%, while net profit increased by 12.20% to 59.76 billion yuan [14] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to an optimized product structure and increased overseas revenue [15] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the construction machinery sector, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow [16] Hangcha Group (603298.SH) - The company achieved a revenue of 164.86 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 1.15%, with net profit increasing by 17.86% [17] - The rise in profitability is driven by higher margins from overseas business and a reduction in raw material costs [18] - The company is expanding its international presence, with significant growth in its smart logistics segment [18] TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) - The company reported a revenue of 978.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 41.3 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to losses in the polysilicon segment [19] - The company is focusing on expanding its transmission and transformation business, with a notable increase in overseas market contracts [19] - The polysilicon business is under pressure due to price declines, prompting the company to reduce production [20] First Solar (FSLR.O) - The company achieved a revenue of 42.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 56% [22] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 66.1 GW of orders as of Q1 2025, indicating robust future demand [23] - Despite uncertainties in U.S. policy, the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand for solar energy [24] JD Group (09618.HK) - The company reported a revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 16% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in retail and logistics [25] - The non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [26] - The company is leveraging AI technology across its retail and supply chain operations to enhance efficiency [27] Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company reported a revenue of 367.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 116.68 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [28] - The in-vitro diagnostics segment has become the largest business unit, with significant growth in international markets [29] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in the medical device sector, with a focus on innovation and market expansion [30]