每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and supporting export-oriented enterprises, particularly in response to the impact of new tariffs from the United States [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policies - The policies include measures from the banking and insurance sectors to support foreign trade development [1]. - Specific support will be provided to listed companies significantly affected by tariffs, including assistance with equity pledges and fundraising [1]. - The government aims to enhance regulatory support while maintaining a balance in oversight to help affected enterprises cope with tariff impacts [1]. Group 2: Company Responses - Companies like Xinbao Co., a leader in the small home appliance sector, expressed optimism about the new policies, which are expected to alleviate some of the pressures from tariffs [1]. - Xinbao Co. highlighted that approximately 70%-80% of its revenue comes from exports, with a significant portion from the U.S. market [1]. - Other companies, such as an automotive parts manufacturer, noted that while they experienced short-term market fluctuations due to tariffs, their financial stability remains intact, and they are more concerned about rising business costs than liquidity [3]. Group 3: Industry Support Initiatives - China Manufacturing Network, a comprehensive foreign trade service platform, acknowledged the positive impact of the new financial policies on export-oriented businesses, while emphasizing the need for further evaluation of the policy details [4]. - The platform has launched initiatives like the "New Maritime Plan" to help small and medium-sized enterprises expand into emerging markets and has established a special development fund to support industries heavily impacted by tariffs [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of U.S.-China trade tariffs on various industries, particularly focusing on consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Elasticity and Profit Impact**: A static estimate indicates a tariff elasticity of 1.7, meaning a 10% increase in tariffs leads to a 17% decline in U.S.-China trade volume. This is used to assess the net profit impact across industries based on their revenue exposure to the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Overreaction in Stock Prices**: Industries such as consumer electronics, kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals have experienced significant stock price declines that exceed the actual net profit damage, indicating a need for valuation adjustments due to long-term revenue shortages [1][5]. - **Ongoing Risks Under Current Tariff Scenarios**: Maintaining the current 145% equivalent tariff or a worse scenario of 125% equivalent tariff plus a 20% offset could lead to continued risks of stock price declines across various sectors [1][6]. - **Impact of Tariff Increases**: Under the 232 investigation results, a 25% tariff (totaling 45%) will significantly affect kitchen appliances, industrial metals, and energy metals, while consumer electronics have been excluded from this category [1][7]. - **Potential for Negotiation Progress**: If U.S.-China negotiations yield positive results, tariffs could revert to a 54% level, allowing for some industries to rebound from their current depressed state [1][8]. - **Optimistic Scenario**: In the most favorable scenario, if the 125% equivalent tariff is removed and only a 20% anti-dumping tariff is applied without introducing new products subject to a 25% tariff, industries such as small appliances, kitchen appliances, consumer electronics, batteries, communication equipment, textile manufacturing, and certain industrial metal sectors could see significant recovery [1][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Long-term Opportunities**: The focus should also be on emerging export categories with low global penetration and potential for growth, such as automotive parts, shipbuilding, machinery, medical devices, and chemical products. Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity in these sectors are better positioned to withstand risks [2][10]. - **Traditional Advantage Industries**: Industries where China holds a significant share of global production and market power, such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), electronic components, and chemicals, are likely to maintain their competitive edge despite high tariffs due to supply chain and cost advantages [10].

Group 1 - The resilience of the index comes from internal certainty, with April A-share market showing a rebound after initial declines, driven mainly by internal policies and medium to long-term funding certainty [3][6][29] - Future changes may become complex, with increasing pressure on the US economy and inflation due to tariff policies, alongside a declining dollar index and record high US debt maturities [3][36][46] - Key investment themes include domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and industries with high Q1 2025 performance, such as non-ferrous metals and home appliances [3][36][68] Group 2 - The market style is expected to rotate between defensive and growth styles, with current policies focusing on stability and potential weak market sentiment [3][36] - The Hong Kong market also shows resilience, with significant inflows from mainland investors and improved valuation due to tariff impacts [3][36] - Domestic policies are anticipated to stimulate investment and real estate, with historical data indicating a significant increase in local government bond issuance [58][59]

证券代码：002959 证券简称：小熊电器 小熊电器股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 整方向，强化对核心用户的抓取，聚焦优势人群、优势用户和优势品 | | --- | | 类，收缩竞争激烈的刚需品类；还进行了降本增效工作，控制退货等 | | 费用，降低不必要的损耗。 | | 问：面对外部消费环境和消费者购买习惯的变化，公司未来三年 | | 的增长抓手？ | | 答：公司会在原先战略方面做一定调整。海外方面，尽管美国市 | | 场存在不确定性，但日韩、东南亚和欧洲等市场潜力大，仍会作为未 | | 来增长的重要路径。虽短期可能受关税影响，但长期坚定海外增长策 | | 略。 | | 国内市场已进入稳定期，去年行业稍有下滑，今年受家电消费补 | | 贴影响会有改善，但预计会有结构性的品牌差异。公司未来几年在国 | | 内会追求经营质量，而非规模增长，提高内部能力，维持合理的收入 | | 增长。具体举措上，公司会回归品牌建设，提升用户体验，进行更精 | | 细化管理。过去在制造能力、工厂和数字化建设上投入较多，目前已 | | 完成阶段性投入，接下来会进一步挖潜提高经营质量。 | | 问：公司 2025 年经营重点？ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 101 million yuan, down 21.91% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 107 million yuan, a decrease of 15.08% year-on-year [4][11]. - The revenue decline has narrowed compared to previous periods, with domestic sales expected to benefit from national subsidies for small kitchen appliances [11]. - The gross margin slightly increased by 0.32 percentage points to 26.33%, aided by national subsidies for high-priced products, while the operating profit was 102 million yuan, down 16.13% year-on-year [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2 billion yuan, a decline of 3.17% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 101 million yuan, down 21.91% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 107 million yuan, down 15.08% year-on-year [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 26.33%, with sales expenses increasing by 3.28% year-on-year, leading to a sales expense ratio of 13.13% [11]. Market Position - The company maintains a strong market position, with a market share of 44.61% in online sales of soymilk machines, 43.44% in blenders, and 11.31% in rice cookers for Q1 2025 [11]. - The domestic small kitchen appliance market saw a total sales increase of 2.50% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with specific categories like rice cookers and soymilk machines showing positive growth [11]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a high-quality small appliance manufacturer, adapting to changes in demand and channels, and is expected to achieve net profits of 334 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 401 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.79, 19.67, and 18.19 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiuyang Co., Ltd., has released its first quarter report for 2024, which includes adjustments to its financial data due to changes in accounting policies, specifically regarding quality assurance accounting treatment [3][6]. Financial Data Summary - The company has restated its first quarter operating costs from 1,509,291,296.17 yuan to 1,528,292,334.81 yuan due to the new accounting policy [3]. - The first quarter sales expenses were restated from 273,210,444.62 yuan to 254,209,405.98 yuan as a result of the same accounting policy change [3]. Non-Recurring Gains and Losses - The company reported that there are no non-recurring gains or losses applicable for the current period [4][5]. Shareholder Information - There are no changes reported in the shareholding structure of the top ten shareholders or any significant shareholders due to the transfer and lending of shares [5]. Audit Status - The first quarter report has not been audited [6].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 家用电器 证券研究报告 家电行业 2024 年报&25Q1 总结 行业概览：Q1 家电板块营收业绩增长提速，现金流趋势向好。24 年家用电 器（申万）板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 15832/1199 亿元，同比 +5%/+7%；25Q1 板块整体营收/归母净利润分别达 4237/330 亿元，同比 +13%/+25%。盈利能力方面，24 年板块毛利率/归母净利率为 24.6%/7.6%， 同比-1.4/+0.1pct；25Q1 板块毛利率/归母净利率分别为 23.6%/7.8%，分别 同比-1.6/+0.7pct。现金流方面，24 年/25Q1 板块经营活动现金流净额分别 为 1664/288 亿元，分别同比-19%/+116%。 白电板块：Q1 板块营收增速环比提速，净利率优化兑现。白电核心个股 2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比+6%/+13%；25Q1 营收/归母净利润分别同 比+16%/+28%。收入端，美的集团 25Q1 收入增速领先行业；业绩端，受益 于白电龙头综合费用率优化、数字化变革等因素带动，美的集团、海尔智 家、格力电器、海信家电 25Q1 归母净利润同比 ...

九阳股份（002242.SZ） 盈利水平环比上行，期待公司景气回升 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报。公司 25Q1 实现营业收入 20.0 亿元， 同比-3.2%；归母净利润为 1.0 亿元，同比-21.9%；扣非归母净利润为 1.1 亿元，同比-15.1%。 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 05 01 年 月 日 核心品类零售端恢复增长态势。根据奥维云数据，2025 年一季度九阳 品牌线上破壁机/空气炸锅品类销额同比+8.1%/+5.0%，市占率同比 提升 2.23pct/0.33pct 至 43.4%/19.8%。 盈利水平环比有所回升。1）毛利率：25Q1 公司毛利率 26.3%，同比 -0.6pct。2）费率端：25Q1 销售/管理费/研发/财务费率分别为 13.1%/4.4%/4.4%/-1.2%，同比变动-0.1pct/持平/+0.2pct/-0.1pct。 3）净利率：25Q1 净利率为 5.0%，同比-1.3pct，环比+4.5pct。 盈利预测与投资建议：考虑到公司 25Q1 利润率环比修复明显，我们 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 4. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 43.0% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected performance [1][2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 16.82 billion yuan, with domestic revenue declining by 4.4% due to weak consumer demand, while overseas revenue grew by 21.7% [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, with overseas revenue increasing by 15.8% to 2.97 billion yuan, while domestic revenue decreased by 4.9% to 860 million yuan [2] Profitability - The company's net profit for 2024 was 1.05 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.3%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 6.4% [3] - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.5 percentage points to 22.4%, attributed to cost reduction and efficiency improvements, along with a significant reduction in hedging-related losses [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in overseas sales, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.16 billion yuan, 1.30 billion yuan, and 1.43 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 12.0%, and 10.2% [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 10x, 9x, and 8x, respectively [4]